Fantasy Football Advice

If you play in a fantasy football league and use any online advice as the basis for who to start, you’re an idiot.
Hector & Victor, ESPN.com’s two resident fantasy football “gurus” attempt to predict the final fantasy score for every NFL player each week and their about as accurate as a Rick Ankiel fastball.
There’s no way to guess whether Chris Brown is going to score a touchdown against the Jags or that Brett Favre will throw one, but not two, interceptions against the Bears. It’s all a big crapshoot.
Fantasy football prognostication is a lot like meteorology. Predictions are based upon good information, but ultimately nobody has any clue what’s really going to happen.
It’s easy to say that Chris Brown wasn’t going to have a good total last week against a stacked Jacksonville defense, but he ended up gaining over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown. And who would have thought LaDainian Tomlinson would only have 50 rushing and 30 receiving yards against the Broncos. After all, didn’t Priest Holmes light Denver up for 150 and three touchdowns in a meeting earlier this year?
You can’t know. But you can make educated guesses.

Always start your top running back, no matter who they’re playing against.
I don’t care if Edgerrin James is playing the Patriots or Jamal Lewis is facing the Jaguars and you’ve got a hot tip that your waiver wire pick-up is going to carry the ball a lot against the Chiefs. There’s a reason that your top RB was a first-round pick and that the guy you got with the 6th waiver wire pick was passed up by other people in favor of the Falcons defense and John Carney. Hot fantasy tips are like hot stock tips. If they were so hot, you wouldn’t know about it.

Unless you have one of the top five receivers, mixing it up is encouraged.
Always start the following receivers: Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Torry Holt and Hines Ward. Beyond that, select based on match-ups. If you have a team’s #2 receiver (think Javon Walker, Reggie Wayne) playing against a miserable secondary (Chiefs, Packers, one with Mike Rumph), start them and bench your underperforming #1. I don’t care if you think “Eric Moulds is due.”

Unless it’s one of your #1 starters, don’t start anybody playing against your favorite team.
Rooting for a fantasy player when they’re playing your beloved team is the worst offense in sports and would be punishable by stoning in some Middle Eastern countries.
I don’t care if the Redskins are playing the Eagles and Donovan McNabb is your QB in the fantasy Super Bowl. If you’re a Skins fan, you hope for LaVar to sack him every time he drops back to pass and then you hope LaVar breaks his legs whilst mid-sack.
I understand that you have to start guys like Priest Holmes’ against your favorite team, but that doesn’t mean you have to root for him. Same thing goes with any big-time player.
But, if every week you’re deciding who to start among your four mediocre receivers, your choice is easier if one of the players opponents is your team.
Moral of the story: Avoid any conflict of interest between real football and fantasy football.
One more thing… if your playing against a player on your favorite team (for example, I played Clinton Portis last week), you still have to root for them and can’t be upset if they score on a long touchdown. You can, however, root for other players on the team to score instead.

Never start the following players under any circumstances: Ashley Lelie, Drew Brees, Antonio Bryant, Keyshawn Johnson, Emmitt Smith, William Green, Mike Alstott.
These guys are the Mo Vaughn’s of fantasy football.
You keep them around on your roster, hoping they’re going to break-out one day. After a couple of games where they score a touchdown and maybe get some yardage points while riding the pine you finally decide to start them in a critical late-season game. You hope against hope that this will finally be the week that they pay dividends, but in the back of your mind you know it’s a distinct possibility that they won’t. When your worst fears are realized, you’re not really mad or even disappointed. You just kind of knew this was going to happen and you get mad at yourself for even getting your hopes up.

Don’t kick yourself if you make the wrong start.
This is an important one. Let’s say that you did start Jamal Lewis against the Jaguars and he only earned you nine fantasy points, but a player you benched managed to blow up for two touchdowns and 100 yards. You’re probably feeling pretty low right now, particularly if you lost by the point difference of the player you didn’t start.
Well, don’t be upset. Yes, it sucks that you didn’t win even though you could have. But if you’re happy with your starts on Sunday morning, you have to be happy with them Sunday night, no matter what happens. It’d be like a manager second-guessing himself for starting Curt Schilling in an ALCS game after he gave up six runs and wondering if maybe Bronson Arroyo would have been a better choice. You stick with the people that got you there.
Of course, if you benched Javon Walker last week in favor of Reche Caldwell, well, then maybe fantasy racquetball is more your style.

Fantasy Football Advice is an occasional feature on this site.

Return of the Swing

The Nation’s pastime is finally back in the Nation’s capital.
Major League Baseball will return to Washington D.C. after a 33-year absence, the Associated Press reported late Tuesday night. An announcement is scheduled for Wednesday.
I said last week on this blog that I wouldn’t believe the Expos were headed to the District until they played at least three games in the city.
Now, with an announcement that the team from Montreal will indeed move south supposedly forthcoming, I’ll instead drop my skepticism when I see Marion Barry throwing out the first pitch at RFK Stadium.
I’ll be back later with more thoughts on baseball’s return.

Tuesday Afternoon Cornerback/The Chaz Rankings

It would be easy to blame the referees for the Redskins 21-18 loss to the Dallas Cowboys Monday night. The officials did blow two huge calls, both on pass interference in the endzone, which benefited the Cowboys and led to an eventual 14 point swing for Dallas.
To blame the refs though, would let the Redskins off the hook. Indeed, if the officiating had been solid the entire night, the Redskins probably would be 2-1 right now and the Nation’s Capital would be abuzz this afternoon, instead of lurching through a rainy day while trying to stay awake at work.
It’s not the referees fault that the Redskins couldn’t get in from the one-yard line on three plays at the end of the second quarter, or that Laveranues Coles dropped three balls or that the Redskins couldn’t stop Dallas on a crucial 3rd and 8 late in the game or that the offense burned two timeouts in the second half and wasted another on a worthless challenge, leaving the team with no way to stop the clock on Dallas’s final drive.
No, the referees didn’t lose the game for the Redskins, they managed to take care of that all by themselves.
For the past two weeks the Redskins haven’t looked like a Joe Gibbs-coached team. Sacks, pre-snap penalties, burned timeouts and clock mismanagement are all hallmarks of the post-Gibbs era. Those things happened to Norv Turner and Steve Spurrier teams, not ones led by Joe Gibbs. What’s going on here?
My cousin George (listen to him weekends on WTOP.com, or 1500 AM if you’re in the Washington D.C. area) made an interesting point last night as we were in the midst of our weekly post game commiseration.
“If Steve Spurrier were coaching this offense,” he said, “everybody would be calling for his head.”
He’s exactly right. Spurrier would be roasted in the media if his teams performed like this. Actually, Spurrier did get roasted by the press because his teams did play like this last season. Some of Spurrier's final games in Washington were eerily reminiscent of the last two Gibbs-coached games.
In each, the Redskins failed to convert key opportunities, turned the ball over at inopportune times, yet always managed to creep back into the game just as Al Michaels’ was beginning to look ahead to next week.
Ultimately, the comeback attempt would fail and the team and fans were left thinking, “hey, at least we were close.”
But close only counts in horseshoes and if you’re trying to avoid catching something from Paris Hilton. Close was good enough for Steve Spurrier, but won’t be for Joe Gibbs.
The difference between Gibbs and the previous regimes is that this team isn’t content in losing close games.
Last year when the Redskins would lose there would be laughter in the locker room, smiles everywhere and the ol’ ball-coach would start his post-game press conference with, “well, we gave it our best shot today, but they just up and whooped us pretty darn good.” It was almost as if losing was expected and winning was a nice bonus for an easy work week. There was no winning mentality at Redskins Park.
Last night there were no smiles, no laughs and the one Redskin who had reason to be happy with himself, Rod Gardner, looked like somebody had just run over his dog.
That is all a byproduct of Coach Gibbs. He has brought that winning mentality back to his franchise, but has yet to bring back the actual winning.
That will come. Joe Gibbs knows that, Mark Brunell knows that, Gregg Williams knows that, LaVar Arrington knows that, Clinton Portis knows that. Portis, in fact, said as much last night when he told a reporter that the Redskins were close to firing on all cylinders and when they do, “watch out.”
There hasn’t been much to watch on the football field this season in Washington just as there wasn’t a whole lot cheer about when Gibbs first coached the Redskins in 1981.
That team started 0-5, but then reeled off wins in 30 of their next 36 games.
Maybe it just takes Gibbs a little time to get those cylinders warmed up.

The Chaz Rankings

We’re going to do it a little different today. Instead of comments for each of the 32 NFL teams, I’m going to break them up in groups of four. Why? Because it’s 4:12 and I haven’t eaten yet.

1) New England Patriots (2-0, Last Week #1)
2) Philadelphia Eagles (3-0, #3b)
3) Indianapolis Colts (3-0), #2)
4) Seattle Seahawks (3-0, #7)

Right now, I think the Eagles and Colts are the two best teams in football. Donovan McNabb looks like the quarterback that everybody always assumed he was and Peyton Manning’s offense is hotter than Gisele Bundchen in the Christmas 2003 Victoria’s Secret catalog.
Until New England loses though, they retain their spot at the top of the Chaz Rankings. As for the Seahawks, I will start to prepare my plate of crow tonight, but I’m going to marinate it for the next few weeks before I sit down for the actual meal.

5) New York Jets (2-0, #6)
6) Atlanta Falcons (3-0, #12)
7) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-0, #10)
8) Baltimore Ravens (2-1, #11)

Who knows how many more 150 yard games Curtis Martin has in him, but if he keeps running well, there’s no reason to think the Jets won’t challenge the Pats for the AFC crown.
I’m still not sold on the Falcons yet (while you’re reading all the stories about how great Jim Mora Jr.’s defense is remember two facts 1) holding the Cardinals to three points is as much of an achievement as crossing the English Channel… by boat and 2) Jim Mora Jr. once coordinated a defense that featured Mike Rumph as the top corner), but they’re undefeated and any team with Michael Vick is a threat to win any game they play.

9) Minnesota Vikings (2-1, #3a)
10) Denver Broncos (2-1, #13)
11) Tennessee Titans (1-2, #5)
12) Carolina Panthers (1-1, #9)

The Vikes defense stinks, Quentin Griffin has carried the ball 37 times for 73 yards (2.3 average) in his past two games, Steve McNair might not play this week and the Panthers win over the Chiefs is becoming less impressive by the second.
Sorry for the cynicism, but I’m still in a bad mood because I impaled my good foot on a miniature version of the Eiffel Tower three days ago while hopping around my room.

13) New Orleans Saints (2-1, #14)
14) Dallas Cowboys (2-1, #17)
15) Green Bay Packers (1-2, #8)
16) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1, #18)

Darren Sharper might want to file assault charges against Peyton Manning, because he got beat down on Sunday afternoon. The Packers secondary is atrocious, and without Mike McKenzie and Ahmad Carroll on Sunday, Green Bay could be looking at a 1-3 start.
The Cowboys are only this high because of all the bad teams below them. Can you remember an NFL season that had more bad teams? Look at all the 16 squads listed below. Would you be afraid to play any of them right now? Heck, include the four teams from 13-16 also. And yes, I said “heck”. I’m trying to make the blog more family-friendly, people. That doesn’t mean the Derek Jeter gay jokes will stop though.

17) Detroit Lions (2-1, #21)
18) Oakland Raiders (2-1, #24)
19) New York Giants (2-1, #27)
20) Washington Redskins (1-2, #16)

Haikus about each four teams:

Detroit

Tough loss to Philly,
Though they’ve won more than they’ve lost.
Roy Williams: The Truth.

Oakland

Rich Gannon is out.
Do you know what this means, folks?
Kerry in ’04.

New York Giants

Hey, Mr. Warner
The Devil just called. He’s mad.
Thought your deal was done.

Washington

Gibbs can do no wrong.
Three Super Bowls, three QB’s.
Dewey green meadow.

21) Houston Texans (1-2, #31)
22) Kansas City Chiefs (0-3, #15)
23) Cincinnati Bengals (1-2, #23)
24) St. Louis Rams (1-2, #19)

I don’t care how bad the Chiefs are (and I don’t think they’re that bad, hence the ranking), anytime a team goes into Arrowhead and wins, that’s pretty impressive.
The Chiefs won’t finish 0-16 and won’t finish 4-12 either. They’ll scrape together some wins, a la the 2000 Rams, and end up closer to .500 than anything. They still have Priest Holmes people.
As for Tampa, I tried to put them lower, but when I got down to the Browns, I knew Gruden’s team was as low as they could go.

25) Cleveland Browns (1-2, #25)
26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3, #26)
27) Chicago Bears (1-2, #20)
28) San Diego Chargers (1-2, #28)

The Bears aren’t in the last foursome because they’ll be residing there the rest of the season and I figured I’d give the Wolfman a break. No Rex Grossman, no Charles Tillman and no Mike Brown equals trouble. Well, not as much as the following six words: Now starting at quarterback, Jonathan Quinn. In 2001 Quinn didn’t attempt a pass, but did apparently kneel down the ball twice for the Jaguars. I don’t think he’ll ever get an opportunity to practice that technique while playing for the Bears.
And for all you people who picked LaDainian Tomlinson first in your fantasy draft… were you not aware he played for the Chargers? Yes, he’s great. But when his team falls down by two touchdowns early in the game, it’s tough to stay with the run.

29) Buffalo Bills (0-2, #29)
30) Arizona Cardinals (0-3, #30)
31) San Francisco 49ers (0-3, #22)
32) Miami Dolphins (0-3, #32)

I bet the Seahawks are licking their chops. Six games against the 49ers, Cardinals and Rams. Think that the Eagles are a bit jealous?
By the way, The Chaz Rankings were the first on the internet to have the Dolphins as the worst team in football. I don’t think they’ll be going anywhere for a while.
Holler.

Monday Morning Cornerback - Abridged

My sister got married on Saturday and I'm still recovering from the celebration. I also wasn't able to watch too much football yesterday, hence the lack of any football analysis today.
Check back tomorrow for the Chaz Rankings.

Monday Night Prediction

I honestly have no clue what to expect in this game. The Redskins haven't been able to run the ball effectively this season, while the Cowboys have been even worse.
Both teams have stacked defenses, so we could be in for a low scoring affair tonight, especially with rain expected.
As always, turnovers will probably dictate the outcome.
Pick: Redskins 17 - Cowboys 13

Week 3 NFL Picks

Houston at Kansas City
Only in Texas could a pro sports team name themselves after the state they play in. That’s a little bit pretentious, especially for a state that prides themselves on wearing cowboy boots, going to the rodeo and drinking Budweiser straight from the can. Too bad Texas didn’t stay seceded from the Union after the Civil War. I don’t think anybody would have missed them.
Pick: Kansas City

Arizona at Atlanta
Alphabetically, this is a match-up between the two top teams in the NFL. That’s about all I can say about this one.
Pick: Atlanta

Chicago at Minnesota
Say the first name of the Bears coach aloud. Now say it quickly. It sounds kind of like “love you”. I bet this makes for some awkward post-game handshakes.
Pick: Minnesota

New Orleans at St. Louis
Last year Aaron Stecker only carried the ball 37 times on a roster that included Thomas Jones and Michael Pittman. That’s like singing backup behind Ashlee Simpson and Britney Spears.
Pick: St. Louis

Pittsburgh at Miami
One can only hope this game is moved to Saturday because of Hurricane Jeanne. Then we won’t have to put up with CBS Game Breaks showing Lamar Gordon fumbling off hand-offs from a semi-mulleted A.J. Feeley. Hey dude, you earn millions of dollars a year. Stop getting your hair trimmed at Super Cuts.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Is this the game Jamal Lewis finally breaks out, or will he have to wait for prison to do that?
Pick: Baltimore

Cleveland at New York Giants
The Browns play an inter-conference game on the road against a sub par NFC East opponent and CBS doesn’t feature the game as its national telecast? Shame on you. Tiffany network my pitoot. Last week the nation was captivated by Vinny Testaverde and Jeff Garcia’s interception parade, with Kurt Warner taking the place of the pink cosmo drinking Garcia, we could have had fumbles and picks. It’s be like some sort of multicultural parade.
Pick: Cleveland

Jacksonville at Tennessee
The Jags have given up only 16 points this season. Advantage: Jacksonville.
The Jags have scored only 20 points this season. Advantage: Tennessee.
Eddie George left the Titans this off-season. Advantage:
Pick: Tennessee

Philadelphia at Detroit
Andy Reid added the bounce pass to the Eagles offense this week, in hopes that referees will continue to rule every throw from Donovan McNabb to Terrell Owens a completion.
Pick: Philadelphia

San Diego at Denver
If Jake Plummer were an actor, he wouldn’t even be Keanu Reeves. At least he was in The Matrix. Plummer won a playoff game a few years back. I guess that kind of makes him like David Paymer.
Pick: Denver

San Francisco at Seattle
Unlike last year where I started 0-6 picking Vikings games, en route to a 1-15 overall record for the team, I’m going to change gears with the Seahawks. What does this all mean? San Francisco in a rout.
Pick: Seattle

Green Bay at Indianapolis
The Colts are six-point favorites in this game, in spite of the fact that Edgerrin James is listed as questionable. That’s good enough for me.
Pick: Indianapolis

Tampa Bay at Oakland
Did you know that Jon Gruden once coached the Oakland Raiders? Did you also know that he left the Raiders to coach the Buccaneers and the year he did the Bucs and Raiders met in the Super Bowl? Furthermore, were you aware that a former Buc player who some consider a star, Warren Sapp, left Tampa via free agency and now plays in Oakland? I just thought I’d tell you this because I don’t think ESPN will make a big deal about this on Sunday night.
Pick: Oakland

Last Week: 10-6

Season to Date: 19-13

Baseball to D.C.? Don't Get Your Hopes Up

By next Friday, Major League Baseball plans to announce the fate of the Motreal Expos. Don’t hold your breath though, this is the third such self-imposed “deadline” that baseball has set in the past year, each of which have passed without so much as a whimper from Bud Selig and company.
Washington D.C., a city which hasn’t had a baseball team since the Senators bolted to Texas in 1971, is the supposed front runner to land the Expos, but a whole number of issues (namely, a large-nosed Greek who lives about 45 minutes north) could keep the nation’s capital from getting a team.
Orioles owner Peter Angelos has done everything in his power, short of standing in front of a tank at Dupont Circle, to ensure that his baseball team is the only game in town.
It has been rumored that Angelos went so far as to put an inferior team on the field in 2001 and 2002 so attendance at Camden Yards would sag and he could turn to baseball and say, “look, my team doesn’t have any fans as it is; moving the Expos to D.C. would kill us all together.”
These rumors were only perpetuated by Angelos when he claimed that the Orioles had made sizable offers to a number of key free agents (Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Mussina among them), only to have the players tell the media that they were never contacted by the Orioles.
So far, the Angelos strategy has worked. Baseball has allowed a bad situation (the 29 other baseball owners are all part-owners of the Expos) to turn into a worse one (“home” games in Puerto Rico and no money to sign any reasonable free agent), all because Bud Selig doesn’t want to upset Peter Angelos.
The Orioles owner claims that over 45% of fans come from Washington while other independent studies have showed that only 20% come from D.C. The real number is probably somewhere in between. It's interesting that Angelos would acknowledge that there are people in D.C. who like baseball, because he has been claiming for years that baseball wouldn't work in the nation's capital because there are "no baseball fans there."
Yet, the Orioles have a team store located in the heart of downtown D.C. and hold a "Fan Fest" there twice a year. If there are no baseball fans here, then why does Angelos continually try to court them?
Baltimore and Washington teams can co-exist if given the chance. It works in San Francisco and Oakland, why not on the east coast?
Because, baseball doesn't want to move the Expos to D.C. If they did, they'd already be here.
D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams has done everything that baseball has asked of him, including securing public funding for a stadium and pledging money to refurbish RFK Stadium, which would be used until a new ballpark could be built. So far, D.C. is the only city who can make promises of a stadium to play in next season and a state-of-the-art ballpark for the future. Still, the Expos remain in limbo, despite the fact that it the only relocation site that makes sense is the nation’s capital.
Does any rational person really believe that baseball would be better off shipping the Expos to Norfolk or Portland or Las Vegas? Yeah, like anybody in Vegas is going to want to sit outside in the 100-degree heat and watch baseball when they could be sitting inside that sweet, re-circulated, oxygenated air gambling away their child’s college fund at the MGM Grand.
Washington D.C. has the population (4th largest metropolitan area in the country) and disposable income (by far the most of any city without baseball) to make baseball work.
Selig has known that for the better part of a decade, yet hasn’t awarded D.C. an expansion team (instead opting to open up shop in such baseball-loving locales as Miami and Tampa) and has dragged his feet on the Expos.
With every passing day, the likelihood of baseball returning to D.C. becomes slimmer. This is the fourth time in my life that D.C. was “guaranteed” of getting a team. The first was in 1991 when Washington, along with Denver, were going to be the beneficiaries of baseball’s first expansion in 15 years. Then, Miami got a team at the last minute.
Two years later the Houston Astros, in need of a new publicly funded stadium, were packing their bags. A last minute referendum to build what became Enron Field stopped that. The same thing happened with the San Francisco Giants a few months after that.
Being a baseball fan in Washington D.C. has become one big tease.
This time though, it’s supposed to be different. The Expos really are going to come.
Excuse me for being cynical, but I’ve gotten my hopes up before. That’s why I’m not holding my breath for an announcement before October 1 or buying into all the hype that the Expos are on their way.
Even if baseball were to announce next week that the Expos were moving to Washington, I still don’t think I’d believe it.
Tom Boswell wrote in yesterday’s Washington Post that he’ll only start to believe once the D.C. team has played two games in Washington.
Me? I’m thinking it’ll take at least three.

Answering Questions Directed Towards Beano Cook

A few days ago, ESPN college football analyst, and resident curmudgeon Beano Cook, hosted a chat on ESPN.com’s Sportsnation. Today, I’ll answer some of those questions as if they were directed towards me.

bill kenny, bridgewater , nj: what record must be acheived by notre dame coach ty willingham in order to retain his job

Notre Dame has always honored their coaches first five-year contract, so don’t look for Willingham to leave South Bend in the near future.
But unless he leads the Fighting Irish back into the Top 10, Willingham won’t get a break from the school’s boosters or the national media. And despite what Michael Wilbon thinks, it has nothing to do with skin color.
Gerry Faust and Bob Davie were under the same intense scrutiny at the start of their ND coaching careers and and both were white. This isn’t a racial thing, it’s a football thing. And so far, Ty Willingham hasn’t delivered.
The Irish are 2-1 this season but that record is a bit deceiving. The team’s lone loss came to a BYU team that finished 4-8 in 2003 and was blown out by Stanford a week after “upsetting” Notre Dame.
A win against Michigan was next for the Irish. At the time, it was considered a huge upset. But the Wolverines are having a down year and wouldn’t be ranked in the Top 25 if they weren’t wearing maize and blue.
Last weekend Willingham and company routed Michigan State, a win that would be impressive in most seasons. But there must be something in the water up there in the Great Lakes State because the Spartans lost to Rutgers, a team that proceeded to get beat by Division I-AA New Hampshire, who subsequently lost to William & Mary.
If the Irish don’t win a bowl game this year, the cries for Willingham’s ousting will be louder then ever. But all the Notre Dame Athletic Director has to do to calm the boosters down is let them know that with Willingham at the helm, the Fighting Irish should never have a problem beating William & Mary.

Jim (NorCal): Why does everyone love Georgia? Greene has to be the most overrated QB in SEC history!

For all we know, Georgia might win the National Championship this year. So far their season has resembled Ohio State’s in 2002; winning games, but just barely. And as they say (who “they” are, I couldn’t tell you), a win is a win.
That being said, the Georgia football team is without a doubt the most overrated team in the country. A #3 ranked team doesn’t need to hang on to beat Marshall at home or need two late touchdowns to squeak past South Carolina. Georgia has done absolutely nothing to show they were deserving of all the preseason hype.
And that’s all their #3 ranking is… hype. The Bulldogs are only ranked that high because a bunch of college football beat writers thought they were going to be a great team back in July. So, when they cast their first ballot for the Associated Press poll they put Georgia near the top. Thre’s nothing wrong with that, at the time people thought Georgia would be the third best team in the country.
Since then, the Bulldogs have played nothing like it, but because they haven’t actually lost a game since the initial poll came out, writers don’t think they can justifiably move other teams ahead of them in the rankings, despite the fact that those other teams are clearly playing better football.
College football (and basketball) need to get rid of preseason polls and begin ranking teams in the sixth or seventh week.
That way, over-hyped teams that come out flat can be ranked behind teams that are out-performing preseason expectations.
The University of Virginia is playing much better football right now than Georgia. Even Mark Richt would agree with that. Yet the Cavaliers are only ranked #12 in the AP Poll. The same goes for teams like Auburn (#9), Utah (#14) and Fresno State (#17).
Every voter in the Associated Press poll knows those four schools are playing better than Georgia. But because each was ranked way below the Bulldogs in the first preseason poll, their climb to the top of the rankings will be dependent on their own success and the failures of higher ranked teams.
If the first Associated Press poll was released next Monday, all of those teams would be ranked in the Top 10. Georgia would be somewhere near 20.

Daniel (Starkville, MS): What do you think Mississippi state's chances of getting to a bowl game this year are?

About the same as Britney Spears and Kevin Federline ever celebrating a one-year anniversary. Sylvester Croom’s team lost to Maine last weekend. Yes, Maine. Apparently they have a football team. In Maine.
They play in Division I-AA, but they do exist.
When an SEC team loses a game to a school that counts Hofstra and Northeastern as rivals, then focusing on Bowl games seems like a bit much. A much better goal would be, say, keeping LSU from covering the probable five-touchdown spread.

dee (daytona beach, fl): i think chris rix is the right qb 4 fsu. what about u?

First of all, what’s with this “4” and “u” nonsense. Did you pass Beano a note written in pink and purple gel pen and folded four ways to ask this question during 4th period chem?
As for your Chris Rix question, the only way to explain your thoughts on his quarterbacking prowress is that you accidentally drank a beaker full of hydrochloric acid instead of your bottle of Dasani.

Monty (New York ): At what point do we take Ohio State as a serious contender. Defense has not lost a step. Offense is better, with a new QB. Plus they lost 14 to the NFL.

I’ll start taking Ohio State seriously the same time I start taking a guy with the name “Monty” seriously.

Don (D.C.): What are your thoughts on Maryland--could this be the year for the Terps?

Well, this won’t be the Terps year after their loss to West Virginia on Saturday, a game in which the Terps still had a chance to win despite a plethora of turnovers.
Joel Statham looks confused at quarterback, but should continue to improve. With the addition of Miami to the ACC (I refuse to acknowledge the existance of Virginia Tech), it will be tough for the Terps to sneak into a BCS bowl like they did in 2001, but an 8-3 record with a young team will be a success. If they finish closer to .500, then the blame can be squarely placed on their new multi-colored uniforms. They make the Bengals uniforms look like they were designed by Armani.

Reese (Dallas): What do you see Texas doing this year?

I think they’ll lose to Oklahoma and then Mack Brown will reveal that he and Bob Huggins were actually separated at birth.

Chuck (Memphis, TN): What do you think the potential is for the Vols with these 2 freshmen QB's?

Danny Ainge’s nephew looked pretty solid against Florida and from what I saw of Brent Schaeffer, he didn’t look too bad either. But when a coach says he has “two good quarterbacks” that means he has zero great quarterbacks.
Phil Fullmer needs to make a decision and stick with it. After the “win” against UF, Erik Ainge looks to be the man, despite the fact that he can’t even spell his own first name.

Jason (AnnArbor): Will Braylen Edwards get any love for the Heisman?

No.

!!!!Big Dude (!!!!Memphis, TN): What are your thoughts on the chances of Cadillac Williams getting the Heisman???

Cadillac’s chances were hurt by his Pontiac-like performance against LSU (18 carries for 75 yards). Much like Darren Sproles (my preseason candidate for overhyped Heisman hopeful), Cadillac is racking up big numbers against weak opponents but struggling against teams in the Top 25.

Buzzmaster: It’s time for Beano’s lock of the week.

Beano is 0-2 in his “locks” of the week so far, so I’ll try to fare better than him:
Notre Dame 27 – Williams & Mary 14.
What? They're not playing? Oh, my bad. I thought you were talking about hypothetical locks. In that case, my lock of the week is: The Penn State-Wisconsin game will be so boring that ESPN executives will be tempted to cut away from the action to show reruns of Unscripted with Chris Connelly.

Answering Questions Directed Towards Beano Cook is an occasional feature on this site.

The Chaz Rankings (NFL Power Rankings) – Week Two

When it comes to sports analysis, Chris’s Sports Blog strives for something different than all the other sports Web sites offer. Not too different mind you, just enough to avoid any copyright laws and things of that nature.
The day after NFL Sundays, ESPN and SI.com have their “Monday Morning Quarterback”. That’s good enough for them, but at chrischase.com (or chazsports.blogspot.com, on your AM dial – tell your friends) we have “Monday Morning Cornerback”. It’s pretty much the same thing, except I run backwards when I’m writing mine.
And on Tuesday where all the sports sites have their Power Rankings, here you’ll find the Chaz Rankings. (Think NFL Power Rankings with a different title.)
Yes, I’ll still rank all 32 NFL teams based on their relative supremacy and clout (thank you Microsoft Word thesaurus), but without the pedantic pontificating of a Len Pasquarelli-type. In essence, nothing has changed from last week’s rankings, except the name. But, oh, what a switch it was.
One more thing, the Chaz Rankings are guaranteed to be the first NFL Power Rankings posted on the internet every week. This, loyal readers, I promise you. Well, that is, they'll be the first until I’m too tired one Monday night and have to do it on a Tuesday morning. But until then… the earliest on the internet folks. Right here.
Anyway, onto the list:

#1) New England Patriots (2-0, Last Week #1) - The Pats winning streak will end October 3rd in Buffalo, ironically, 75 years to the day that the country of Yugoslavia was formed. Well, it’s not literally ironic.

#2) Indianapolis Colts (1-1, #6) - In a game played on a neutral field with neutral fans, I’d take the Colts over the Patriots. But I’d probably take Switzerland to beat them both.

#3a) Minnesota Vikings (1-1, #5) - Chris, didn’t the Vikings lose to the Eagles no more than 2 hours ago? Yes they did italicized conscience, but I have my reasons for ranking the Vikings slightly ahead of the Eagles. Does this have anything to do with your hatred of Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens. No, and did I ever tell you that I like my bolded conscience better?

#3b) Philadelphia Eagles (2-0, #2) - That’s what I’m talking ‘bout g. Let’s go get our drink on.
You’re both morons. Before you go kill whatever brain cells you have left, you still need to explain why the Eagles are #3b and the Vikings #3a.
Alright, here’s the deal. Even an Olympic gymnastics judge could have seen that Terrell Owens 45 yard touchdown reception had the following things wrong with it: 1) He didn’t have possession of the ball. 2) His right knee landed out of bounds. 3) The ball didn’t cross the plane of the end zone. All three of these facts were clearly visible in the replay (which, thanks to the miracle of TiVo, I watched a dozen times to make sure my biases didn’t affect my judgment) and should have been seen by the back judge. Had he noticed just one of the three details, the play wouldn’t have resulted in a touchdown. Instead, the ref blew all three and the Eagles took a 15 point lead.
So if it was such a bad call, why didn’t Mike Tice just throw the little red flag? Replay is a part of the game and if the Vikings failed to challenge the play, the blame lies squarely on their shoulders. Uhhhhh…. Amstel Light alright with you bolded conscience? Solid.

#5) Tennessee Titans (1-1, #7) - In just three halves of football this year, Chris Brown has more rushing yards (252) than Eddie George had in the first five games of last season (244).

#6) New York Jets (2-0, #11) - Curtis Martin’s Underrated Stat of the Week: Barring injury, Curtis Martin will likely have the fifth-most rushing yards in NFL history at the end of the season. By the way, Martin’s been to four Pro Bowls, one more than Kimble Anders and Chris Warren.

#7) Seattle Seahawks (2-0, #8) - Which NFL team has allowed the fewest points this season? Well, I guess it’s a bit obvious now. The Hawks have only given up 13 points in the first two games. The Chargers, conversely, allowed 14 points in a little over four minutes on Sunday.

#8) Green Bay Packers (1-1, #3) - Mike Sherman should make Ahman Green carry around a football all day, a la the guy Omar Epps played in The Program. And Derek Jeter should go lie in the middle of a two-lane highway, a la the guy Stephen Dorff played in the same film.

#9) Carolina Panthers (1-1, #12) - Carolina is like an enigma wrapped inside a riddle wrapped inside teal uniforms and helmets featuring non-menacing pictures of what appears to be a Panther.

#10) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0, #14) - I bet even if Byron Leftwich really wanted to buy a Jaguar as his next automobile he probably wouldn’t do it because it’d just be too damn cheesy. A Jaguar driving a Jaguar? That’s like dressing in matching outfits with your girlfriend.

#11) Baltimore Ravens (1-1, #21) - I think the fact that Britney Spears-Federline has now managed to out-skank Christina Aguilera has to be one of the most amazing celebrity feats in recent memory. Christina was like the Michael Jordan of trashiness and seemed to be so firmly entrenched in the top-spot of skanktivity that the possibility of her dethroning wasn’t even fathomable. Do you remember the “Dirrrty” video with Redman? To skanky girls that was like the moon landing. Now it’s but a memory and Britney has grabbed the torch (actually a 99 cent disposable Bic lighter) as Queen of the Skanks. Simply remarkable.

#12) Atlanta Falcons (2-0, #15) - Atlanta fans don’t deserve to have Michael Vick play on their team. They’re like the guy you know who treats all his girlfriends like crap and then ends up with the perfect girl who he never is able to appreciate.

#13) Denver Broncos (1-1, #4) - The Broncos were caught cheating the salary cap and the NFL only fined them a 3rd round draft choice? Are you kidding? They deliberately cheated and tried to cover it up and will only lose the opportunity to draft an overrated running back from the Big 10.
If this were the NCAA the Broncos would have lost scholarships, TV appearances and bowl eligibility. In Saudi Arabia they’d lose their hands. And in nearby Eagle, Colorado they’d be investigated for 14 months by the district attorneys office at a cost of nearly $4 million and then would have had the case dropped days before trial.
Just think, if O.J. had lived in Colorado, he probably wouldn’t have had to sell his Heisman.

#14) New Orleans Saints (1-1, #18) - The one they call Deuce, has cooked his own goose, for his ankle bone be loose, and his ball playing use, has now been reduced, and he cannot produce, lest his foot take abuse, so he should get himself loose and become a recluse, or seduce a nice moose with some Welch’s grape juice.

#15) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2, #10) - With Priest Holmes likely out for next week’s game, the Chiefs really should start basing their offense around Tony Gonzalez. This suggestion has nothing to do with the fact that I drafted Tony Gonzalez in the 4th round of my fantasy draft and he has given me a whopping seven points in the first two weeks. Nothing, I say.

#16) Washington Redskins (1-1, #9) - All I can say is that Rod Gardner better hope he never has to go to jail.
I’ll give you a minute… checks watch…take your time… twiddles thumbs…. There you go.

#17) Dallas Cowboys (1-1, #25) - With Julius Jones out for two months with a broken shoulder, there is a good chance that Eddie George might finally break a record that has been just out of his reach over the past four years: over 20 carries in a game for under 20 yards.
If he does accomplish the remarkable feat, I hope they would stop the game to have a ceremony where the Cowboys would award Eddie a Nerf Turbo football and a beat-up ’72 El Camino.

#18) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1, #16) - John Travolta was on Oprah today. There was one woman in the crowd who broke down at the sight of the man who produced and starred in Battlefield Earth. It kind of reminded me of the time I saw a woman go nuts when Louis Gossett Jr. was on an episode of Maury.

#19) St. Louis Rams (1-1, #13) - If the TV cameras never showed Mike Martz on the sidelines, I would swear that the Rams were being coached by Rich Kotite.

#20) Chicago Bears (1-1, #24) - After their impressive win against the Packers at Lambert Field, I wanted to move the Bears higher up in the Chaz Rankings. I was having trouble figuring out how high to put them when I realized that no Bears fans will care if I have their team too low. Chicago fans are so pessimistic they make Eeyore look like Katie Couric.

#21) Detroit Lions (2-0, #22) - I know the Lions beat the Bears, but come on folks... their quarterback is named Joey.

#22) San Francisco 49ers (0-2, #30) - Even though they’re winless, the Niners are probably the biggest surprise of the NFL season. Everybody thought they’d be the worst team in the league, instead they’re probably only the eighth or ninth worst. Way to go guys!

#23) Cincinnati Bengals (1-1, #20) - Dear NFL, After WKRP in Cincinnati there was really no need to show anything remotely related to Cincinnati on primetime television again. Sincerely, Chris.

#24) Oakland Raiders (1-1, #26) - Now that Ronald Curry has pushed Jerry Rice further down the depth chart, rumor has it that the best receiver in NFL history is in danger of losing his roster spot to either Darian Durant or Jason Capel.

#25) Cleveland Browns (1-1, #17) - Word out of Cleveland is that Courtney Brown will miss the rest of the season because of a foot injury. That means Brown, the #1 overall pick in the 1999 draft, will finish the season with two tackles. Well, at least he’s right around his average.

#26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2, #19) - Chris Simms looked alright in the second half against the Seahawks. He looks like he could have a bright future in the NFL, as long as the league doesn’t expand to Oklahoma.

#27) New York Giants (1-1, #31) - Four spots is all you move up when you win by less points (6) than your opponent’s turnover total (7).

#28) San Diego Chargers (1-1, #27) - Two things about “The Music City Miracle”:
1) That’s such a lame name for a play. The Immaculate Reception. The Catch. The Shot Heard ‘Round the World. Those are catchy. The Music City Miracle? What? Because two-thirds of it are alliterated? And Music City is a lame name for a city anyway, I don’t care how good the music scene is. Is that how we nickname things now? Just taking a singular trait of a town and throw it in before “City”?
Do we call Baltimore “Kind of Smelly, But Not Necessarily In a Bad Way City?” Or refer to Los Angeles as “Silicon City”? Or call New York “Really Smelly and Definitely In a Bad Way City?” I don’t think so people.
2) Even though the Frank Wychek to Kevin Dyson pass probably went a little forward, I’ve always been happy that the Titans beat the Bills in that game. Not because I’m a Titans fan or hate the Bills or anything. I just didn’t like how Doug Flutie started 15 games for Buffalo and then was benched by Wade Phillips in favor of Rob Johnson for the Wild Card game. I hated it then, and I hate it now. Flutie equals victory.
Oh yeah, Flutie played a bit for the Chargers yesterday, hence this whole rant.

#29) Buffalo Bills (0-2, #23) - How to Find a Head Coach: Tip #15 – Never hire a coach whose last name (Mularky) is a homophone of a word that can be used in derogatory headlines (ie, “Bills a Bunch of Mularky”).

#30) Arizona Cardinals (0-2, #29) - By the end of the season the Cards could very well have as many moral victories as an After School Special.

#31) Houston Texans (0-2, #28) - Let’s see: The Astros are in the thick of the N.L. Wild Card race due in large part to a pitcher who once played for teams in Boston and New York and was lured out of retirement to give it a final go in Houston. If it worked in baseball, it might work in football too, so don’t be surprised to hear that Charley Casserly is making calls trying to plead Zeke Mowatt to come back for one last season.

#32) Miami Dolphins (0-2, #32) - Ricky Williams doesn’t have anything in his possession that could make watching a Dolphins game interesting.

Monday Morning Cornerback

Bad losses are nothing new for the Washington Redskins of the 21st century. Under Norv Turner, Marty Schottenheimer and Steve Spurrier games like the one played yesterday were common.
Four interceptions, three lost fumbles, four sacks allowed, six dropped passes and five pre-snap penalties. Hell, for the 2003 ‘Skins that might have actually been a good day.
But when Joe Gibbs is the coach, a team shouldn’t make 22 mistakes. They usually don’t even make half of that. Last week versus Tampa Bay the Redskins only had three such gaffes. So what happened?
Yesterday at the Meadowlands nearly everything that could have possibly gone wrong did for the Redskins.
Mark Brunell got hurt, Clinton Portis did his best Tiki Barber impersonation, the ‘Skins O-line couldn’t create any holes, receivers dropped balls, officials missed calls, kickers missed kicks, Brunell’s replacement, Patrick Ramsey, attempted passes that made Jake Plummer’s left-handed throw look like Montana-to-Rice and the Redskins defense gave a shell-shocked Kurt Warner his confidence back.
Even with all of that, the Redskins still had four opportunities to score the go-ahead touchdown in the 4th quarter, a fact that is probably more revealing about the play of the Giants than anything.
Mistakes are inevitable in football. Clinton Portis can make the same up-the-middle run on 3rd down 100 times and he’ll maybe fumble the ball once. Mark Brunell could have thrown the same screen pass dozens of times and Fred Robbins wouldn’t have picked it off. Those things happen every now and then. But even without those miscues, there are some serious problems facing the Redskins.

· For the second straight week, the offensive line couldn’t create any holes for Clinton Portis to run through. Taking away his big touchdown run against Tampa (which was caused by the Bucs safeties biting on the counter and Portis breaking it to the other side) and a 21-yard run on a 3rd and long draw play yesterday, and C.P. has run the ball 47 times for only 132 yards for a 2.8 yard average. Those are Eddie George numbers. Randy Thomas and Chris Samuels are playing well on the line, but Lennie Friedman, Derrick Dockery and Kenyatta Walker will have to make big improvements if Portis is to become the kind of clock-controlling back that Joe Gibbs needs.
· Rod Gardner can’t catch. The second receiver for the Redskins, who Gibbs wanted to be an Art Monk type possession receiver, dropped three easy balls that were in his hands, including one that would have led to a touchdown and another that would have given the Skins a key first-down.
· At this point, Patrick Ramsey doesn’t look like he can play in the Joe Gibbs offense, which relies on patience, smarts and accuracy. Two of Ramsey’s three interceptions came on balls that never should have been thrown. And two of his sacks could have been avoided with a quick sidestep. Nobody’s asking Ramsey to be Michael Vick, but even Vinny Testaverde can step-up in the pocket to avoid a pass-rush.
· Safeties Matt Bowen, Andre Lott and Sean Taylor have been beat badly four times in the first two weeks of the season which won’t fly in Gregg Williams’ blitz-happy defensive packages. The safeties can’t let receivers get behind them when Williams sends in seven, but that’s exactly what they’ve allowed to happen.

If there’s any coaching staff in the NFL that can correct these problems, it’s the one in Washington. Joe Gibbs and his cronies have a long week to plan for the Cowboys and work out the kinks in their system.
They should start by benching Rod Gardner and activating Darnerien McCants. Dropped balls are inexcusable. If Gardner could catch the Redskins would probably be sitting at 2-0.
Joe Bugel also needs to work with the right side of the offensive line and maybe think about making a switch at center. Lennie Friedman has been terrible, which I guess isn’t all that surprising considering he went to Duke.
And if Mark Brunell can’t play against Dallas, Gibbs should give serious thought to starting Tim Hasselbeck instead of Patrick Ramsey.
Considering all the mistakes the Redskins made, it has to be somewhat pleasing to Gibbs that his team had every opportunity to win the game yesterday. The defense played well, only giving up the play-action touchdown after a Brunell fumble, and the offense moved the ball well when they weren’t coughing it up.
The Redskins are far from being a great team but they aren’t a bad team either. And with parity dominating the NFL (after tonight only four teams in the NFC will be 2-0), that might be good enough.

Sunday Thoughts

- I’ve always thought that the consecutive games with a catch record was pretty overrated. That’s saying a lot, because my favorite NFL player of all-time, Art Monk, once held that record. I guess I just can’t excited about a streak that will stay alive when a player gets one catch for four yards.
Even so, Jerry Rice’s record of 274 straight games with a reception which dated back to December 1, 1985, is pretty remarkable. Consider these two facts:
1) Rice has only had three games during the streak where he made only one catch.
2) One of Rice’s fellow Raider receivers, Johnnie Morant, was only three years old when the streak started.

- Since all anybody could talk about last week was how amazing Quentin Griffin was, based on his stellar performance against the worst defense in the league, I fully expect to hear this week about how disappointing Quentin Griffin (25 car, 66 yds, late fumble) was against Jacksonville. But, that’s not the way things work in the media, so I assume that the hype this week will focus on Steve Mariucci and the Detroit Lions after their two wins against NFL juggernauts Chicago and Houston. And expect to see a few stories about DeShaun Foster and how he came in and stepped in for Stephen Davis in a crucial game for the Panthers. Try to ignore the fact the Foster, like Griffin before him, racked up huge numbers against the Chiefs.

- Thank goodness ESPN has stopped using the Monday Night Football music on it's Sunday night telecast. To me that always seemed like playing Christmas music on July 4th, eating pizza on Thanksgiving or wearing white after Labor Day.

- I watched a little bit of the Emmy Awards last night and had a few quick thoughts:
1) Since Sarah Jessica Parker talks and acts exactly like her character on Sex and the City, should she really be winning the award for Best Actress? That'd be like giving Ricky Williams an Oscar for starring in The Bob Marley Story: Music, Weed, Love and Weed... and Weed.
2) That was actually the only thing I had to say about the Emmy's.

- Florida sophomore quarterback Chris Leak is going to be a huge star in the NFL. The improvement he’s made from his freshman year to now is amazing. Leak has a cannon for an arm, great speed and sees the field better than any college quarterback I’ve seen in a while. The last time I got excited about a college QB his name was Michael Vick.

- I think it’s safe to say that Kyle Boller isn’t going to be a very good NFL quarterback. This isn’t at all surprising, considering he wasn’t a very good college quarterback. Brian Billick is going to have to make a change soon, because opposing defenses disrespect Boller so much that they are putting eight men in the box to stuff Jamal Lewis, and having great success doing so. They simply aren’t afraid of Boller beating them deep.

Superlatives

Best Game: Saints 30 – 49ers 27 - This game would have turned out a bit differently if Saints running back Deuce McCallister hadn’t gotten hurt in the first quarter. The Niners showed they aren’t going to roll over just because of low expectations and Aaron Brooks had one of his four annual 250 yard, 3 TD days. All of this means that next week, when you start Brooks on your fantasy team, he’ll throw for 93 yards and two picks. Guaranteed.

Upset of the Day: Bears 21 – Packers 10 - Wait. Ahman Green fumbled near the goal line? I don’t believe it. Next you'll try to convince me that Eddie George had under 3.4 yards per carry against Cleveland.

Players of the Day: Peyton Manning - Facing the possibility of an 0-2 record headed to Lambeau, Manning led the Colts to 28 second-half points en route to a huge victory against the Titans.

Line of the Day: Michael Vick – 14/19, 179 yds, 1 TD, 109 rsh yd - Vick had 79 more rushing yards than the entire Rams team.

Ryan Leaf Line of the Day: Jeff Garcia – 8/27, 71 yds, 3 INT - It’s going to take a few more pink cosmos than usual for Garcia to forget about this one.

Best Fantasy Day (Faulk/Holmes Division): Edgerrin James – 124 yds, 2 TD – 24 fantasy points - Not a whole lot of big fantasy days on Sunday, but the resurgence of Edge is making people who passed him up in favor of Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis or Deuce McCallister kick themselves.

Worst Fantasy Day (George/Burress Division): Shaun Alexander – 45 rsh yds – 4 fantasy points - Would have been better off starting Aaron Stecker (5 points). Ouch.

Best Fantasy Day (Boldin/Patten Division): Giants Defense – 4 INT, 4 Sacks, 3 Fumbles, 1 TD – 25 fantasy points - Great fantasy day, yes. But don’t think go picking up their defense and expect them to do this every week. The Giants didn’t cause the turnovers, the Redskins did it to themselves.

Predictions

Went 9-6 on the day, bringing my season total to a mediocre 18-13. Those damn Seahawks are going to be a thorn in my paw all season.

Power Rankings: Top Two

1) New England – Still haven’t lost, but got challenged by the Cardinals.
2) Indianapolis - They're better than the Pats.

Monday Night Prediction

I’ve gone back and forth on this one all morning. Part of me thinks that Randy Moss is going to put on a show in front of Terrell Owens and a national TV audience while the other part of me thinks that Donovan McNabb will try to force the ball into T.O. and pay for it.
So that means both parts think the Vikings are probably going to prevail. Well, then this won't make any sense.
Pick: Eagles 23 – Vikings 21

NFL Week 2 Picks

Denver at Jacksonville
Let’s get something straight people: “Q-Griff” is not a nickname, it’s a lazy person’s attempt at cutting the four-syllablic name “Quentin Griffin” in half. What happened to the good ol’ days where “Crazy Legs”, “The Big Dipper”, “Magic”, “The Yankee Clipper” and “Teddy Ballgame” passed for nicknames. Now, if you’re name starts with an odd letter, or your last name can be cut into one syllable that sounds vaguely like a word that’s all you need.
Pick: Jacksonville

Indianapolis at Tennessee
Some people are calling this a “must win” for the Colts. Those people were probably the ones writing off the Yankees after their poor start in April and burying the Eagles last year when they started their season 0-2.
Pick: Indianapolis

San Francisco at New Orleans
The Miami team that Ken Dorsey led to the 2003 BCS Championship is probably better than the team that surrounds him in San Francisco.
Pick: New Orleans

Chicago at Green Bay
The last time the Bears beat the Packers, Bill Clinton was president, Madonna’s “Music” was the #1 song in the country, Troy Aikman was the Cowboys quarterback and LeBron James was in eighth grade.
Pick: Green Bay

Carolina at Kansas City
Houston at Detroit
Two former third-string quarterbacks and two former backup running backs playing on opposing 0-1 teams face-off in one game, while in another, two teams starting former top-three draft picks at QB and highly-touted backs and receivers will meet up. Try and guess which game is which.
Picks: Kansas City/Detroit

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
I’m in a hurry, so I’m going to be breezing through these. Bear with me. Tommy Maddox? What’s he… like 80?
Pick: Baltimore

St. Louis at Atlanta
What is Michael Vick doing on the cover of Sports Illustrated? Were the editors that impressed with Vick’s stellar 13-22, 163 pass yd, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush yd performance against one of the worst defenses in the league?
If mediocre performances by mega-stars are all it takes to get on the cover of the nation’s premiere sports magazine then Donovan McNabb should have been on the cover thirteen times by now.
Pick: St. Louis

Washington at New York Giants
Earlier this week Tom Coughlin fined his wife for not making him eggs in the morning after he dreamed about eating pancakes.
Pick: Washington

Seattle at Tampa Bay
I’m picking against Seattle until I’m right. This worked wonders for me last year when I picked against the Vikings every week during their blazing 6-0 start, then started to believe in them only to see them pull a Munson down the stretch.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Buffalo at Oakland
This game reminds me of the old days when NBC showed AFC football. I half-expect Don Criqui and Merlin Olsen to be calling this one.
Pick: Buffalo

Cleveland at Dallas
This is the game that CBS selected as it’s 4:00 national telecast. Seriously.
Pick: Dallas

New England at Arizona
Well, in retrospect, maybe Cleveland/Dallas doesn’t look too bad.
Pick: New England

New York Jets at San Diego
Looks like the U.S. Ryder Cup team took lessons from the U.S. Basketball squad. At noon on Friday they’re down by a total of 13 holes in four matches. What does this have to do with New York-San Diego? Nothing.
Pick: New York Jets

Miami at Cincinatti
The Bengals are hosting their first primetime game in seven years. Miami has a quarterback controversy brewing between A.J. Feely and Jay Fiedler.
Other Sunday night viewing choices include: Titanic on NBC, Speed on FOX, The Emmy Awards on ABC, Fight Club on FX, The Wire on HBO, Seven on TNT (two Brad Pitt movies on one night? Am I in heaven???), a Britney Spears biography on E! and Book Events on C-Span 2.
Pick: Cincinatti

Last Week: 9-7

Questions from a Wolfman

The Wolfman grew up in Morton Grove, IL. During his formative years he played soccer, rooted for Notre Dame and the Green Bay Packers, was smooth with the ladies and never, ever looked like a tough guy on class picture day.
Against the advice of many football scouts who claimed that he could have “played D-III”, the Wolfman attended college at Wake Forest University, in Winston-Salem, NC where he didn't play varsity, but did make a mean catch on a Hail Mary to win the Flag Football (Division B) Finals in 1999.
Today he resides in San Diego, CA with his college roommate, who once nearly burned down his freshman dorm because he was making hot-wings.

After a football weekend that repeatedly made me feel like i had been punched in the face, i have some observations: First, of course, I'll start with the Bears.
I thought you were supposed to be asking questions here? Hence, “Questions from a Wolfman”. But just like a skeptical judge on Law & Order, I’ll allow it… for now.

Rex Grossman has been under a lot of scrutiny after his final minute interception.
However, I think he looked pretty good.
Define “a lot of scrutiny”. The last time I heard somebody mention a Bear on ESPN they were talking about this.

The guy has started 4 games in the NFL and his #1 receiver is David Terrell, give him a break. He got no protection all day and the running game average under 3.5 yards a carry. Even when he did make plays, the Bears would shoot themselves in the foot, such as Desmond Clark catching a 28 yard pass to move the ball into the Lions territory and then fumbling given the ball back to the Lions.

Is there a question buried here somewhere? As for Rex Grossman, do I have to remind you where he went to college? Aren’t you the same person who hated on Shane Matthews? Do you not recall the Danny Wuerffel era in Washington? Why am I the one asking all the questions here.

With that inexperienced of a quarterback, some other guys have to be playmakers and they simply weren't. And yes I know I was the one a few years back singing Brad Johnson's praises, so we'll see.

I was in the Brad Johnson camp as well. If Dan Snyder never had his fling with Jeff George, Brad Johnson might still be the Redskins quarterback. Johnson was the only QB to lead a Redskins team to the playoffs in the post-pre Joe Gibbs era. Had he been given a vote of confidence by the front office, the Skins might have not imploded in their infamous 2000 season and Norv Turner still might be coach. On second thought, I’m glad that moonshine drinking hillbilly got out of town.

(With all that said, I don't know if Grossman can throw a good deep ball, but they jury is still out on that one)

Did you know that Oprah was on a jury a few weeks ago? I think it was for a murder trial, but I don’t think the other jurors got cars at the end.

One of the playmakers should be David Terrell. He did make some plays in the game, but he still flashed the same idiocy that he did his previous 3 years in the league. The first Bears fans got to hear about Terrell in the game was on their second offensive play when Terrell was flagged for offensive pass interference on an 8 yard curl. In the 2nd half, with the Bears deep in their own territory, Grossman completes a pass down the sideline to Terrell for 35 yards to about the 50, great. Oh, but Terrell gets a taunting call, moving it back 15 yards. His comment after the game? 'They (the refs) made bad calls.' I have an idea Terrell, shut up and play the game. You have a young quarterback who needs a safety valve, step up and take some responsibility. Sounds like a little MWS to me.
If doctors would quit spending so much time on “real” diseases and focused on Michael Westbrook Syndrome, I think David Terrell would have a chance of breaking the record for most appearances on the cover of the New England Journal of Medicine
Let’s compare:

- Michael Westbrook – 4th pick of the 1995 draft (4th pick?!)
- David Terrell – 8th pick of the 2001 draft

- Michael Westbrook attended Colorado
- David Terrell attended Michigan

- Michael Westbrook’s biggest play ever was against Michigan when he caught “The Catch” from Kordell Stewart.

- Receptions in Michael Westbrook’s rookie year: 34
- Receptions in David Terrell’s rookie year: 34

Now, all David Terrell has to do is beat up Adrian Peterson on the sidelines and draw a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty from David Boston’s father, and the metamorphosis will be complete.

I could talk about the Bears all day, but I'll spare the readers.

Sparing the readers would have meant ending your Bears thoughts at “First, of course, I’ll start with the Bears.”
And this also assumes that there are still readers at this point for what has become Wolfman’s Bears Rant Page.

I wish after Brett Favre got sacked, an announcer would say 'I bet he'll go home and get all doped up on painkillers.' God I hate that guy.

Now that’s not nice. What if every time something bad happened to you I said “I bet he’ll go to a park in Austria and get seduced by a wealthy Asian man.”

It's great to talk to the media after you win a game and it's all smiles for you, but how about talking to the media after blindly throwing an interception to Brian Dawkins or having Atlanta come into Lambeau and handing it to you in the playoffs.

I’m starting to get the feeling that you don’t care for Brett Favre.

He better hope Ahman Green gets some holes to run through in the playoffs, otherwise you might be headed for another six interception day like in St. Louis a few years back.

Well, Favre is no Cade McNown, that much is certain.

Favre really reminds me of a certain effeminate shortstop who's a favorite of the blog.

You know, for a Wolfman you’re not very jolly. But let’s not compare Brett Favre to Derek Jeter. Favre likes to go mow his lawn. Jeter likes to go out and pretend that he’s interested in the supermodels he cavorts around Manhattan with. Favre hasn’t missed a start in 191 games. If there was a sale at Barney’s, Jeter would definitely miss the front-end of a doubleheader with Tampa Bay. Brett Favre single-handedly led the Packers to two championships. Derek Jeter once made a play in an ALDS game that was considered amazing but wouldn’t have been remembered if Jeremy Giambi had just slid into home plate. Plus, the Yanks lost that World Series anyway.

I think the most hated athlete I could imagine is Brett Favre's son, sure to be equipped with a hillbilly name like Merle, playing quarterback for Notre Dame. What would your most hated possible athlete be?

Duke point guard Derek Jeter.

Okay, I need to calm down, I'm more wolf than man right now.

Do you find it ironic that you once dressed as Alex P. Keaton, a role played by Michael J. Fox and that at one time you also were a teenager who had wolf-like tendencies or a “Teen Wolf”, a role that was also played by MJF? It’s like rain, on your wedding day. Or a free ride, when you’ve already paid.

I want to thank the Hurricane for the picture of Jeff Garcia's girlfriend.

I want to thank Jeff Garcia’s girlfriend for the picture of Jeff Garcia’s girlfriend.

Did you see Tony Danza has a new talk show? What a time to be alive.

Tony Danza has a TV show and Blair Underwood is back on primetime television. I think we as a society have peaked.

Since the blog hasn't discussed baseball in a while, what are some predictions for the wild card races and the playoffs, it's getting to be that time you know. That was quite the prediction Kerry Wood winning the Cy Young.

Compared with my Derek Lowe for A.L. Cy Young pick, the Kerry Wood prediction makes me look like Nostra-friggin-damus.
I’ll go over this in depth when the season ends, but here are my postseason predictions:

Divisional Series

Minnesota Twins (AL Central Champs) over New York Yankees (AL East Champs)
Boston Red Sox (Wild Card) over Oakland A’s (AL West Champs)

St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central Champs) over Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West Champs)
Chicago Cubs (Wild Card) over Atlanta Braves (NL East Champs)

Championship Series

Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins
St. Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs

World Series

Boston Red Sox over St. Louis Cardinals

I’m not really sold on the Cardinals. It’s getting late, so I’m not going to go into it. They have the best record in baseball, but a postseason rotation of Matt Morris, Woody Williams and Jeff Suppan won’t scare the Red Sox who will throw out Pedro, Schilling and D-Lowe.
The Cubs and Giants will fight until the last weekend for the Wild Card berth, but the Cubbies easier schedule gives them the slight edge.
The Braves will choke as usual, the Yanks will get shut down twice by Johan Santana and not be able to sweep the other three non-Johan games.
Here are my picks for the postseason awards. It’s not who I necessarily think will win, but who I think deserves to win.

AL MVP – Manny Ramirez, Boston
AL Cy Young – Johan Santana, Minnesota
AL Manager - Eric Wedge, Cleveland

NL MVP – Barry Bonds, San Francisco
NL Cy Young – Jason Schmidt, San Francisco
NL Manager - Bobby Cox, Atlanta

Has a team ever had both the MVP and Cy Young winner and not made the playoffs? It could happen this year. Manny gets the edge over Sheffield, Santana over Schilling and Wedge beats out Buck Showalter, unless the Rangers get hot and win the AL West.
Bonds should win the NL MVP unanimously, Schmidt tops Clemens because of his strikeout totals and if Bobby Cox doesn’t win the NL Manager of the Year, then the award should be discontinued.

Questions from a Wolfman usually entails the Wolfman asking questions and is an occasional feature on this site.

Chris Answers PTI’s Questions

Headlines

How long should Frank Francisco’s suspension be for throwing a chair at a fan?

Bud Selig needs to send a stiff message to players that folding-chair throwing should only be practiced by professional wrestlers and Bobby Knight. Francisco clearly needs to be suspended for the remaining 18 Ranger games this season and probably for at least 40 next season.
That being said, there needs to be more security around Major League bullpens in order to prevent this sort of thing from happening again. Yeah, Francisco shouldn’t have thrown a chair, but this whole thing started because the husband of the woman who got clocked with the chair was drunk and yelling at Texas reliever Doug Brocail.
This moron, probably eight or nine beers deep, had allegedly been heckling Brocail and the rest of the Texas bullpen for the previous few innings and things got heated in the ninth.
Yelling and cursing doesn’t give a player the right to fight a fan, but baseball players are normal people and have a breaking point.
Fans earn the right to heckle players when they buy their ticket, but if it crosses a line it is up to stadium security to control the situation. Where were they? If this guy is yelling, why couldn’t an usher ask him to quiet down or ask stadium security to do the same? It’s up to the ballparks to control this, players shouldn’t have to.
One more thing: if the chair had hit the heckler instead of his wife, I would have applauded the throw.
Here’s why: Craig Bueno, the guy yelling at Brocail and the intended recipient of the chair to the head, would never, under any circumstance, heckle a Major League Baseball player if he saw one on the street or in a restaurant. Why? Because he knows he would get the s*** kicked out him. But when these idiots sitting in the stands have a few too many they think they’re invincible because of the barrier between the playing field and the spectators. If you watch Bueno during the argument you’ll see him make the “come on” motion to the Rangers bullpen, indicating that he wants to fight. Think he would do that if he was walking by the Rangers in an airport?
My rule is, don’t provoke a fight unless you are prepared to get into one. This guy clearly wasn’t. He thought that he was protected by his role as a spectator, and when you’re cowardly enough to do that, then you deserve to get your ass kicked.

Are the Packers good or are the Panthers bad?

I’ve been on the record here saying that the Panthers were overrated last year and had one of those magical years where their players stayed healthy, all the bounces went their way and every player on the team seemed to peak.
That rarely happens two years in a row, and I predicted the Panthers to finish this season at 7-9 and miss the playoffs.
Jake Delhomme is a solid quarterback, but his M.O. during the playoffs last year was that he was good enough to not lose games on his own, but not necessarily good enough to carry a team on his shoulders. What happened in the past six months to change everybody’s mind? (Same thing with the Packers-Panthers spread. The Pack were three point dogs on Monday, but if they had beaten the Eagles to play in the NFC Championship game, they probably would have been favored by one or at the least, one-point underdogs. But because the Panthers played the Patriots close in the Super Bowl the whole opinion of the team is changed?)
Back to ripping the Panthers.
Stephen Davis is getting close to that inauspicious 2,000 career carry mark and is clearly on the decline.
With Steve Smith getting hurt, Carolina Offensive Coordinator Dan Henning won’t be able to stretch the field at all since the rest of his receiving corps are all possession receivers.
As for the vaunted Panthers defensive line? I’m not sold. The Packers abused the Carolina front-four en route to 152 rushing yards.
Brentson Buckner is one of the more underrated players in the NFL, but that makes up for Julius Peppers who is one of the most overrated. How many times did you hear Peppers name on Monday night? He’ll make a big sack, but is ineffective against the run and takes plays off.
It’s still too early to write the Panthers off or to declare the Packers the best team in the NFC, but at the moment it looks like the Panthers aren’t as good as last season and the Packers are just about the same. Remember, they were one fluky Donovan McNabb pass away from a match-up with the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game.

Is Tom Coughlin old school disciplinarian or is he clinically insane?

Playing on the Giants under Jim Fassel was like going to summer camp. Playing on the Giants under Tom Coughlin is like being in a supermax prison.
Three New York players were fined last week for being early to team meetings. Apparently, they only showed up four minutes early when Coughlin wants them to be five minutes early.
I understand that Coughlin needs to toughen up a bunch of players that were pampered under Jim Fassel, but if you want the meeting to start at 2:55 then don’t schedule it for 3:00. It’s that simple.

Why are the Mets waiting for fire manager Art Howe?

Because then the front office would have to admit that they messed up by mortgaging the team’s future in July to make a futile run at the playoffs. The Mets traded away all of their top prospects for Richard Hidalgo, Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano, in order to make a push for the postseason that wasn’t at all realistic.
When the Mets made the Benson trade on July 30 they were four games under .500 and seven back in the N.L. West and Wild Card race, with numerous teams ahead of them. It seemed like a curious move, to get a pitcher who will be a free agent at the end of the year in exchange for a young third baseman and two highly-touted prospects.
Of course, it didn’t pay off and now the Mets are 19 games under .500 and behind the Rockies in the Wild Card race, just 17 games and nine teams behind the leading Giants.
It’s not Howe’s fault the Mets suck, but somebody has to take the blame.

Oprah: Selfless Humanitarian or Corporate Shill?

In case you haven’t heard (which I doubt), on the premiere of her 19th season, Oprah gave away a Pontiac G-6 to all 276 members of her studio audience.
It was a brilliant move by both Oprah and Pontiac, who will pay about $7 million for the cars, but earn that back five-fold because of all the publicity.
But is Oprah selfless or a shill? She’s both, and that’s OK. Oprah is the most powerful person in America and uses that clout for good. Just because Pontiac used her show as a launching platform for their new mid-size sedan doesn’t make her a bad person.
Now, let’s just hope that Stedman makes an honest woman out of her one day.

Toss Up

More impressive: Pats or Eagles

I’m going to say the Eagles. Losing three straight NFC Championship games, including two at home, is pretty darn impressive.

Who’s your wideout: Terrell Owens or Randy Moss

This is going to come as a shock to most of you, but I’m going to go with T.O.
When motivated, Moss is the best receiver in the history of the NFL. All Daunte Culpepper (or whoever) has to do is lob the ball somewhere in Randy’s vicinity and no corner can do anything about it.
But that’s only when Moss is motivated. And that is maybe eight or nine games a season. In the others, Moss just seems to go through the motions. If he knows a play isn’t going his way, Moss won’t block, instead, he’ll just stand around the line of scrimmage.
I don’t want that kind of player on my team.
I’m not going to defend Owens, because his sideline tirades and off-field behavior are despicable, but at least he works hard every time he steps on the field.
And frankly, I’d rather have Marvin Harrison.

More likely to keep it going: Butch or Mooch?

Keep what going exactly? They won one game for crap’s sake. As the Wolf says in Pulp Fiction, “let’s not start -“, well… you know how it goes.
The Lions will be better than the Browns this season, but that’s like saying that Hawaii is going to be a better TV show than Rodney.

What will happen first: Ty Willingham wins the title or gets the boot?

One week ago people couldn’t wait to fire Ty Willingham, now just because they beat a Michigan team that has lost its previous five road openers (despite being ranked in the Top 11 each time), we’re supposed to take his ring size?
This team lost to BYU last week. The question should really be: What will happen first: Ty Willingham wins the Insight.com Bowl or gets the boot?
Even then, I’d have to put it at 50/50 either way.

More fun to watch: The hit on Eli Manning or the hit on Jeff Feagles?

Reason #415 TiVo is the greatest invention of the past decade: Rewinding the Eli Manning hit over and over. It’s like watching the career ending hit that Lavar Arrington put on Troy Aikman, it just makes me so happy.

Big Finish

Contract extension for Terry Donahue?

Let’ see: Fired Steve Mariucci, got rid of Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens, hired Dennis Erickson and went into this season with Tim Rattay as the starting quarterback. Yeah, I think a contract extension is about right.

Ken Dorsey will start for 49ers?

Kudos Terry Donahue, kudos.

Sammy Sosa back on track?

If by “back on track” you mean, still striking out at a Reggie-esque clip and hitting meaningless solo homeruns late in games that are already decided, then yes.

Why isn’t Tony on Dream Job?

Because when a friend asked a few months back which show I thought was worse, Dream Job or Playmakers, I actually had to think about it for a few minutes.

Will Roger Clemens get #17 tonight?

Yes. And as a reward, Oprah is going to buy him a new Pontiac G-6.

Chris Answers PTI's Questions is an occasional feature on this site.

NFL Power Rankings: Week 1

1) New England Patriots - Until they lose, the Patriots will stay atop the Power Rankings. Do I think they’re the best team in the league? No. Do I think they’ll win the Super Bowl? No. Am I starting to sound like Arnie, the guy on Seinfeld that broke up with the chick from Will and Grace because George said she could do a lot better than him? I believe I am.

2) Philadelphia Eagles - The Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting in their final editions that today on the Eagles off-day, Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens will fly to Massachusetts to be legally married. Brian Westbrook will be the best man and Donovan’s niece will handle the flower girl duties after T.O.’s first choice, Jeff Garcia, declined the offer.

3) Green Bay Packers - John Madden says the Panthers defensive line is the best in football, but that didn’t phase Brett Favre, Ahman Green or the Packers O-line at all. Of course, John Madden also says Tinactin is tough-actin’ when the product is actually more affable than anything.

4) Denver Broncos - Quentin Griffin looked great against the Chiefs, but he’ll come back down to earth Sunday when he’ll face a Jaguars defense that ranked second against the run last season. I have no sarcastic comments to follow.

5) Minnesota Vikings - Daunte Culpepper is on pace to throw 80 touchdown passes this season. Even if he does that, Barry Bonds will still probably win the MVP.

6) Indianapolis Colts - If Mike Vanderjagt can be nicknamed “Money”, then Gilbert Brown should be called “Slim”.

7) Tennessee Titans - They get a pass on their stinker versus the Dolphins because just being in the city where Ricky Williams once lived probably gave them a contact high.

8) Seattle Seahawks - When two overrated, over hyped teams play, somebody has to get the W. Just look at the Notre Dame – Michigan game.

9) Washington Redskins - Too high you say? Being a homer, am I? Maybe I am. But for all you Joe Gibbs skeptics out there, here’s a little stat for you. The Redskins have been playing football since 1932, a total of 71 seasons. Joe Gibbs coached in 12 of those seasons, plus one game. Yesterday’s win gave the franchise a total of 500 wins, 125 of which were under Joe Gibbs.

10) Kansas City Chiefs - Gunther Cunningham did as much for the Chiefs defense as Dennis Miller did for Monday Night Football. Speaking of which, what’s what ABC putting the names of the directors and producers at the beginning of the MNF telecast. It’s a football game, not an episode of Two and a Half Men.

11) New York Jets - There are only two things more underrated than Curtis Martin: Ed and Cherry Coke.

12) Carolina Panthers - As I wrote yesterday, a team’s season isn’t decided by their first-week result. Regardless, that was a pretty uninspired effort from the defending NFC champions. Taking a cue from Oprah, Panthers owner Jerry Richardson is going to buy the entire team cars to cheer them up.

13) St. Louis Rams - The Greatest Show on Turf? More like The Greatest Show on the Turf of a Field That’s Near a Big Arch.

14) Jacksonville Jaguars - I’m kind of upset that Monday Night Football isn’t having that football musician battle this year during halftime. I really enjoyed seeing Joey Harrington on piano duking it out against a rapping Marcellus Wiley.

15) Atlanta Falcons - Michael Vick not taking advantage of a secondary that features Mike Rumph is like a thief not stealing from an open bank vault.

16) Pittsburgh Steelers - People in Pittsburgh probably don’t have too much to look forward to this season. But at least Teri Hatcher is back on network television on ABC’s Desperate Housewives. Seriously, how has it taken her so long to get back on the small screen? NBC will green light crap like Inside Schwartz and Father of the Pride, yet couldn’t find a way to get Teri Hatcher on TV? Have you seen her body? They’re real and they’re spectacular.

17) Cleveland Browns - That’s two Seinfeld references in one posting. That beats my previous record of... one.

18) New Orleans Saints - The Deuce wasn’t as much loose as he was reduced.

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Yesterday at the Redskins-Bucs game Shawn King, wife of Larry King, sang the National Anthem. When they announced her name, I thought they were talking about Shaun King, the Bucs third-string QB. Then when I got home I read an article about NFL player Shawn King, who talked about how he loves smoking the Ricky-icky-icky. I didn’t know if the article was about Shaun King, QB, or Shawn King, Larry King’s eighth wife. It wasn’t until I clicked on the link that I found out that it was about a former Colts defensive lineman named Shawn King. That’s three Shawn/Shaun King’s in one day. I haven’t had an experience like that since my Jason Williams debacle of 1999.

20) Cincinnati Bengals - Does the spelling of Rudi Johnson’s first-name make him a) more girlie, b) less girlie, c) none of the above?

21) Baltimore Ravens - Every time a team coached by self-proclaimed genius Brian Billick scores less than a touchdown, a person gets their MENSA membership. Or maybe an angel gets their wings. I can never remember.

22) Detroit Lions - Speaking of Teri Hatcher, it’s been a while since there’s been a Lawrence brother on television.

23) Buffalo Bills - I’ve seen a total of three highlights from the Bills-Jags game, so really don’t have much to say about either. So instead, I’ll talk about that Gatorade commercial where everybody thanks Mia Hamm for, presumably, being Mia Hamm. I have two thoughts: 1) Is there anybody more annoying than Brandi Chastain? She’s like that annoying chick from that one sorority you hate that always seems to be in one of your history classes, answering questions and giving you dirty looks when you get called on and clearly don’t know what you’re talking about and end up just piecing together an answer culled from what other people have said and general statements about “leadership” and “visionaries”. Surely this has happened to other people besides the Wolfman? 2) Check out Michael Jordan’s jeans. It looks like he stole them from A.C. Slater’s closet.

24) Chicago Bears - Will Rex Grossman be more like Danny Wuerffel or Shane Matthews? Only time will tell.

25) Dallas Cowboys - The Eddie George era is off to a blazing start.

26) Oakland Raiders - Jerry Rice is now behind Doug Gabriel on the Raiders depth chart. In other news, NBC announced Tom Brokaw’s replacement on The Nightly News will be Pauly Shore.

27) San Diego Chargers - Did everybody underestimate Drew Brees or overestimate the Texans defense? I think it’s a little from column A and a little from column B.

28) Houston Texans - Did everybody underestimate Drew… oh, right.

29) Arizona Cardinals - In most places there are no such things as moral victories. Well, most places aren’t Arizona.

30) San Francisco 49ers - I had a really good joke about Jeff Garcia and his girlfriend, Playboy Playmate of the Year Carmella Decesare (thanks for the pic, which is safe for work, Hurricane Riley), but since both my mom and an alleged ten-year old (who e-mailed me to tell me that he loves my blog and Wake Forest Basketball) both check this site regularly, I’ll keep it to myself. But if you want, try to piece it together this way: Garcia, girlfriend, “She’s into it?”, surprise!, Derek Jeter?

31) New York Giants - I don’t know what I liked more: Eli Manning going 3 for 9 in his NFL debut or Eli getting hit so hard by Jerome McDougle that even Archie was hurting. Wait, I’m lying. I enjoyed Eli getting pummeled so much more.

32) Miami Dolphins - The only thing that will make this season tolerable in Miami is some of that real Ricky-icky-icky.

Monday Morning Cornerback

After a blowout victory over the Giants yesterday, fans in Philadelphia probably think that Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens are going to become the most prolific quarterback-receiver tandem since Montana and Rice.
Meanwhile, a little further south in Baltimore, some Ravens fans have probably given up on the season after their team laid an egg against the lowly Browns.
Fans in every NFL market in the country are either experiencing the highest of the highs or the lowest of the lows this morning.
Minnesota travel agents are probably getting besieged with calls asking for plane tickets to Jacksonville for the first weekend in February, while Bucs fans are already counting down the games until Chris Simms replaces Brad Johnson.
Either way, everybody is putting way too much stock into week one results.
Think about it this way, if the Ravens lost 20-3 to the Browns in week seven, would there be panic in Baltimore? Of course not. People wouldn’t be happy that Jamal Lewis ran for only 57 yards or that Kyle Boller looked like… well, Kyle Boller, but there wouldn’t be a city-wide panic. And if Daunte Culpepper threw five touchdowns in week nine versus the Cowboys, everybody in Minnesota would be thrilled that their quarterback shredded a heralded Dallas defense, but they wouldn’t assume the Vikings are the best team in the league.
It’s easy to look at the first week of NFL games and think that the results will be indicative of future success. But in reality, week one is just another week. Yes, it’s the first week, but that doesn’t make it any different than the eighth week.
Seasons aren’t made or broken in early September. It’s nice to get that first win in the books, but wins and losses mean nothing more in week one than they do in week fourteen.
If playoff berths were decided the first week, then the Eagles, Cowboys, Ravens and Packers all would have missed the playoffs last season. And the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots? They would have had the inside track to Eli Manning or Robert Gallery after getting pummeled by the Bills 31-0.
So if you root for the Eagles or Vikings or Redskins or Lions or Jets, savor your team’s victory in week one. And if you prefer the Bengals, Bucs, Saints, Colts or Cowboys, don’t worry, your season isn’t over yet. There’s hope yet for those 16 teams sitting at 0-1.
Well, except the Giants.

Sunday Thoughts

- Nearly every major player that switched teams in the off-season had a fantastic debut with their new clubs. Clinton Portis ran 64-yards for a touchdown the first time he touched the ball in a Redskins uniform, Terrell Owens had three touchdown catches in his Eagles debut while on the other side of the ball Jevon Kearse put pressure on Kurt Warner and recovered a fumble. Champ Bailey had an interception, Jeff Garcia led his Browns team to a win over the hated Ravens and Eddie George ran for 143 yards and had three scores in his first game with America’s team. What? He only had eight carries for 25 yards for a meager 3.1 yard-per-carry average? Simply shocking I say.

- Speaking of George, has the blond hair dye seeped into Bill Parcells brain? How could the Tuna possibly go into the season with a running back depth chart that reads: Eddie George, Richie Anderson, ReShard Lee, Julius Jones. Those backs probably couldn’t even start on a Top 25 college football team, and Parcells expected to go back to the playoffs with them?
Last year the Vikings gave up 4.86 yards-per-carry, which was second-to-last in the NFL. Their defense really didn’t improve too much in the off-season, yet the Cowboys backs made it seem like Carl Eller, Jim Marshall, Alan Page and the rest of the Purple People Eaters returned for a 30th reunion yesterday at the Metrodome.
Parcells and the Cowboys are going to be in rough shape this season unless Julius Jones gets inspired by Notre Dame’s win over Michigan and comes out running like Darius Walker.

- The Redskins proved once again that good coaching trumps everything in the NFL. Joe Gibbs’ return to the NFL was triumphant as the Washington Redskins got a win for the Hall of Fame coach over a Bucs team that is still only 17 games removed from their Super Bowl championship.
The Dirtbags, Joe Bugel’s Hogs: Volume II, shut down a vaunted Bucs D-line that sacked Redskins QB Patrick Ramsey six times in the team’s meeting last season.
On Sunday, the Bucs barely touched new quarterback Mark Brunell and Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts combined for 165 yards.
On the defensive end, Gregg Williams’ schemes flummoxed Brad Johnson and the Bucs running attack. The Skins defense essentially posted a shutout, as the Bucs 10 points came off a fumble return for a touchdown and a field goal that resulted from a long kick return. The Bucs offense is hardly a high-powered attack, but it wasn’t last year either when the Skins allowed 35 points.
The Redskins are the most improved team in the league and it’s entirely because of their coaching staff.
Defense doesn’t win championships, coaching wins championships.
If Gibbs, Belichick or Parcells coached the Falcons, Bengals and Saints, respectively, those teams would win their divisions going away.

- After the first quarter of the Broncos-Chiefs game, where Pat Summerall misidentified three players, got the score wrong and kept asking absurd rhetorical questions (Is anybody better than Jake the Snake?), I think the ESPN production team turned off Summerall’s mic and used his commentary from Madden ’95 to get them through the rest of the game. Still, it was good hearing Pat’s voice back calling the NFL.

- The Falcons probably aren’t feeling too comfortable after they came within a tipped pass of overtime against a team thought to be on the NFL’s worst. Michael Vick looked confused operating the west coast offense and his numbers were very un-Vick like. Jim Mora Jr. says he won’t bench Vick, which is the right decision. But if he is really going to stay with west coast offense, then Matt Schaub, the rookie out of Virginia, is the better choice. But if anything gets benched in Atlanta, it should be the offense.

Superlatives

Best Game: Denver 34 – Kansas City 24 - On a day full of mediocre games, the Sunday night contest was the best of the day. Quentin Griffin made Broncos fans quickly forget about Clinton Portis (although, playing against the Chiefs defense, Mike Shananan himself could have run for 100 yards), but Priest Holmes did his best to get the Chiefs the upset at Mile High. (I refuse to call it Invesco Field. That’s not only a crappy name for a stadium, but a crappy name for a company too.)

Upset of the Day: Detroit 20 – Chicago 16 - It’s always tough to define what is an upset in week one and even harder when most of the favored teams win as they did yesterday. San Diego over Houston was mildly surprising, but it wasn’t exactly Villanova over Georgetown. The Lions victory over the Bears wasn’t all that shocking either, but anytime a team ends a 24-game road losing streak, they deserve a little recognition.

Player of the Day: Daunte Culpepper - Culpepper had one more incompletion (six) than touchdown passes (five) in the Vikes game against Dallas.

Line of the Day: Jerome Bettis – 5 car, 1 yd, 3 td - You read that right. The Bus got in the end zone three times, each from one-yard out. His other two carries were for zero and -2 yards, respectively. Sadly, I bet at least two people in my fantasy leagues put in a claim for Bettis on the waiver wire.

Ryan Leaf Line of the Day: Jamal Lewis – 20 car, 57 yds - This award really could have gone to anybody on the Ravens offense, but Lewis was the only one who was named NFL Offensive MVP last season. In his two games against the Browns in 2003 Lewis ran the ball for 500 yards. Not having a healthy Jonathan Ogden certainly didn’t help Lewis and the Ravens, but I haven’t seen this quick a drop-off since Howard Dean circa February.

Best Fantasy Day (Faulk/Holmes Divison - Best Day by a Big-Time Player): Priest Holmes - 151 yards, 3 TD - 33 fantasy points - It would only make sense that Priest would earn the honor named in part for him. Holmes picked up where he left off last season and scampered into the endzone three times.

Worst Fantasy Day (George/Burress Division - Worst Day by a Big-Time Player): Michael Vick - 163 passing yards, 10 rushing yards, 1 pass TD - 11 fantasy points - Let's keep in mind that this was against the 49ers. Hope those of you that jumped the gun on Vick picked up a solid backup too.

Best Fantasy Day (Boldin/Patten Division - Best Day by a Player Not On Anybody's Starting Roster): Quentin Griffin - 157 yards, 2 rush TD, 1 rec. TD - 33 fantasy points - Griffin is overqualified for this distinction, because he was selected in most drafts and was probably starting in a fair amount of leagues. But, because it was only the second start of his career and there were few other jaw-dropping days, he wins by default.

Predictions

A rough day in the prognostication department, as I went 7-6. After a .500 showing in the first two games of the season, my record stands at a disappointing 8-7 heading into the Monday Night showdown. This is all the weirder considering that I went 10-5 while picking against the spread this weekend and am in the 97th% percentile on ESPN.com.
But hey, that’s what I get when I pick against my 2004 team of destiny (Jacksonville Jaguars) and pick a team playing in the toughest stadium in the NFL (Kansas City).
I tried to kick myself for predicting that the Bears would beat the Lions, but that would have meant picking the Lions, and I just don’t think I’m prepared to do that.

Power Rankings: Top Two

1) New England Patriots – Until they get beat, the Pats will stay atop the list.
2) Philadelphia Eagles – McNabb and Owens are taking an extended honeymoon. That’s an easy thing to do when playing the Giants.
3 – 32) Tomorrow

Monday Night Prediction

Considering my first week predicting swoon, I should play it safe and pick the Panthers at home to beat Brett Favre and the Packers. But that would mean going against my gut, which screwed me in the Jacksonville-Buffalo game. I watched way too many Panthers games last year and still think they’re due for a run of the mill season.
Pick: Green Bay 23 – Panthers 16

NFL Playoff Predictions and Week 1 NFL Picks

Here are my final predictions for the 2004 NFL season:

NFC East W L Philadelphia Eagles 10 - 6 Washington Redskins * 10 - 6 Dallas Cowboys 8 - 8 New York Giants 4 - 12 North W L Green Bay Packers 11 - 5 Minnesota Vikings * 11 - 5 Chicago Bears 7 - 9 Detroit Lions 6 - 10 South W L Tampa Bay Bucs 10 - 6 Atlanta Falcons 9 - 7 Carolina Panthers 7 - 9 New Orleans Saints 7 - 9 West W L St. Louis Rams 12 - 4 Seattle Seahawks 9 - 7 San Francisco 49ers 3 - 13 Arizona Cardinals 3 - 13

AFC East W L New England Patriots 11 - 5 New York Jets 9 - 7 Buffalo Bills 7 - 9 Miami Dolphins 4 - 12 North W L Baltimore Ravens 10 - 6 Cincinnati Bengals 9 - 7 Pittsburgh Steelers 8 - 8 Cleveland Browns 3 - 13 South W L Indianapolis Colts 11 - 5 Jacksonville Jaguars * 10 - 6 Tennessee Titans 9 - 7 Houston Texans 7 - 9 West W L Kansas City Chiefs 13 - 3 Denver Broncos * 10 - 6 Oakland Raiders 4 - 12 San Diego Chargers 3 - 13

NFC Wild Card                      AFC Wild Card

Washington over Tampa Bay          Indianapolis over Denver

Minnesota over Philadelphia        Jacksonville over Baltimore

NFC Divisional Playoff             AFC Divisional Playoff

Washington over St. Louis          Kansas City over Jacksonville

Green Bay over Minnesota           Indianapolis over New England

NFC Championship                   AFC Championship

Green Bay over Washington          Indianapolis over Kansas City

                      Super Bowl XXXIX

            Indianapolis Colts over Green Bay Packers

I picked Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl before the game last night and after watching them play, I'm still comfortable with the pick.
The Colts abused New England's supposably impenetrable front line, with Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes combining for 184 yards on 40 carries.
James looked like he has fully recovered from his ACL injury as he was making cuts that he wouldn't have even tried last season. He now looks like the Edge of old, thus proving that it takes two full seasons after an ACL tear to get back to 100%.
Peyton Manning was sharp as usual, except for his late-game audible that pushed Mike Vanderjagt's kick back 15-yards.
Don't read too much into Tom Brady shredding the Colts secondary. Indy wasn't able to get a pass rush on the Pats QB all night because the Patriots O-line holds every single play. Seriously, next time you see a New England game watch the right side of the line and you'll see Tom Ashworth and Joe Andruzzi tugging jerseys, pushing up into defenders facemasks and chop-blocking like they're playing on dirt fields in the '50s.
If the Raiders played like the Patriots do, all anybody would talk about is how dirty they are. But because New England doesn't have the Raiders historic bad rep, what they do is considered "aggressive".
I'm hoping that the next time Russ Hochstein clips an opponent below the knees it causes a serious injury. That's probably the only way that the media will begin focusing on the Pats illegal blocks.

Week 1 Picks

Every Friday on Chris's Sports Blog, I'll be predicting the results of each upcoming NFL game. Throughout the season I’ll keep a tally of my record and then compare it to the “experts” on ESPN.com. I figure I’ll fall somewhere below Ron Jaworski and ahead of Sean Salisbury.
I won’t be picking against the spread for two reasons: 1) Covering doesn’t show up in the standings and 2) Gambling is illegal people. I can’t stress this enough.
Onto the picks:

Tennessee at Miami (Saturday)
With Hurricane Ivan on a destructive path to Florida, Dave Wannstedt is probably thankful that his Dolphins team won’t be the only thing that blows in Miami this weekend.
Pick: Tennessee

Arizona at St. Louis
Fearless prediction of the week: The Rams point total will outnumber Emmitt Smith’s rushing yardage.
Pick: St. Louis

Cincinnati at New York Jets
The Jets play to win the game. The Bengals play because it gets them out of Cincinnati for eight weekends a year.
Pick: New York Jets

Jacksonville at Buffalo
With Willis McGahee continuing to complain that he’s not the starter in Buffalo, I’m kind of hoping that every time Travis Henry scores a touchdown he runs over to McGahee on the sidelines and pulls off his jersey to reveal a t-shirt that has Gary Coleman’s face and “Whatchu’ talkin’ bout Willis?” in big block letters.
Pick: Buffalo

San Diego at Houston
Too bad Curt Menefee doesn’t work for CBS. He would be a perfect announcer for this game. As it is, I’m getting the feeling that Chargers and Texans fans will hear a lot of yelling by Gus Johnson on Sunday afternoon.
Pick: Houston

Tampa Bay at Washington
Joe Gibbs returns to the sidelines and 2pac and Elvis will sing the National Anthem.
Pick: Washington

Baltimore at Cleveland
Are people in Cleveland still mad at Art Modell for moving the Browns to Baltimore? If they are, they really need to get over it. That was, like, 10 years ago. Focus your enmity on somebody who’s made your city look bad recently… like Drew Carey.
Pick: Baltimore

Detroit at Chicago
This game will probably be decided by a battle of the Jones, Thomas for Chicago and Kevin for Detroit. But with the way both teams offensive lines look, they’d probably be better off signing Star.
Pick: Chicago

Oakland at Pittsburgh
30 years ago this would have been the game of the week. Today, it will be shown in 4% of the country.
Pick: Pittsburgh

Seattle at New Orleans
A first week match-up between the two trendiest Super Bowl picks in the NFC. This will kind of be like watching a Cosmopolitan and capri pants duking it out in some sort of bizarre trend-off.
Pick: New Orleans

Dallas at Minnesota
500 Japanese-Americans will picket outside the Metrodome to protest Bill Parcells use of a derogatory term towards their people.
14 guys named Eddie will also be there protesting the crappiness of Eddie George.
Pick: Minnesota

New York Giants at Philadelphia
Casinos should be taking bets on which happy marriage hits the skids first: Britney and Kevin’s or Donovan and T.O.’s.
Pick: Philadelphia

Atlanta at San Francisco
Michael Vick playing in the west coast offense makes as much sense as Meryl Streep starring in Catwoman 2.
Pick: Atlanta

Kansas City at Denver
Peter King of Sports Illustrated has once again picked Jake Plummer as his choice for NFL MVP. In other news, Peter King of Sports Illustrated is backing the presidential campaign of Lyndon LaRouche.
Pick: Kansas City

Year to date: 0-1 (Would have been 1-0 if Edgerrin James could hold onto the ball like he holds onto a joint.)

Come back later today to read NFL Playoff predictions, Week 1 picks and why the Patriots will not win the Super Bowl.

NFL Preview: Part IV – NFC South and NFC West Previews

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)

Last year the Bucs continued the recent trend of Super Bowl champions missing the playoffs the year after their title.
In an attempt to turn things around in Tampa, Jon Gruden took over the general manager duties from Rich McKay, jettisoned overrated and overpaid stars John Lynch and Warren Sapp and remade the team in the image of his old Oakland squads.
This year the Bucs will start an old quarterback (Brad Johnson, who will try to do his best Rich Gannon impersonation), an old running back (32-year old Charlie Garner, who will try to his best 29-year old Charlie Garner impersonation) and two old receivers (Keenan McCardell and Tim Brown playing the Jerry Rice and Tim Brown roles).
Time is definitely ticking on Gruden’s team, but it’s not inconceivable for the Bucs to put together a solid season with their current roster. Last year, Tampa (without a decent running back) lost seven of their nine games by a touchdown or less. A few of those losses were fluky (Martin Gramatica’s missed extra points in the first Carolina game and the Colts furious 4th quarter comeback on Monday Night Football), and with a couple of breaks the Bucs could have found themselves back in the playoffs.
Good luck rarely happens two years in a row, so it wasn’t all that surprising that the Bucs had some trouble in the year of their title defense.
In order to win a Super Bowl a team has to be talented, but also needs to stay relatively injury free and get a few bounces to go their way. The good karma the Bucs had in 2002 was gone in 2003.
The same thing happened to the Patriots following their first Super Bowl. Remember, that so-called dynasty in New England missed out on the playoffs in the middle year of their two Super Bowl wins.
I’m not saying the Bucs will win the whole thing, but with a veteran offense and a Derrick Brooks-led defense, the Bucs should find themselves back in the playoffs.
Key Player: Jon Gruden, HC - If Tampa is to be successful this season, Gruden has to resist the temptation of pulling Brad Johnson and installing his teacher’s pet Chris Simms as the starting quarterback. Word out of Tampa is that Simms had a great camp. Big friggin’ deal. Simms always looks good when there is no pressure to perform. But Phil’s kid couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn when his Texas teams played Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, so try to imagine what he’ll do when he sees Ray Lewis charging towards him in front of 70,000 hostile fans.
Biggest Game: November 28, at Carolina - Last year the Bucs lost to the Panthers twice by a total of six points. This is the first match up of the season between the teams. They’ll meet again four weeks later back in Florida.
Playoff Chances: Partly Sunny - People are sleeping on the Bucs this year. With their coaching staff and talent, they should be playing in January.

Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

I made my season predictions last Thursday before I saw Michael Vick play against the Redskins in the final preseason game of the year. For those who didn’t see it, here’s a quick rundown:
1st play from Scrimmage: Vick drops back and doesn’t recognize a double-cornerback blitz by Shawn Springs and Fred Smoot. Springs quickly gets to an unknowing Vick and wraps him up. On his way down Vick blindly chucks the ball into the air, where it is easily intercepted by Matt Bowen.
4th play: Vick is sacked by Lavar Arrington, after throwing two incompletions on the previous plays.
5th play: Vick is again sacked by Arrington. This time, he loses the ball, which is recovered by Antonio Pierce and returned for a touchdown.
In all, Vick’s final numbers for the game were 0-3, with one interception and one fumble. For the preseason, the superstar went 5-12 with zero touchdowns and one interception.
Amazingly, the numbers don’t even begin to describe how bad Vick looked.
The new west coast offense seems to have the quarterback completely flummoxed. When he drops back to pass Vick looks as confused as my college roommate Greg after I suggested that we take a picture in front of a poster of 2pac and Snoop after a long day at the doctor’s office. Or the time we went shopping at the mall and it took him 15 minutes to realize that the reason the clothes he was trying on didn’t fit was because we were in Abercrombie Kids. Or the time that we were in another mall and he walked around for 10 minutes looking for me as I was having a conversation with Antzo’s mom. He walked by us five times as I was staring right at him, then, while standing no more than eight feet away took out his cell phone to call me to see where I was. When I reluctantly picked up my phone and said, “take four steps forward” he gave the phone a quizzical look that soon turned to amazed joy when he realized where I was sitting.
But I digress. After only attempting 12 passes in the preseason, Michael Vick heads into the regular season with almost no experience running the new offense, which focuses on short, timed passing, something that Vick is ill-suited for. The west coast offense doesn’t encourage the freelancing that Vick is best known for and his running ability will be seriously hindered by the offensive format.
The Falcons defense looks as bad as they were last season. Add it all up and it looks like it’s going to be another long season in Hotlanta.
Key Player: Michael Vick, QB - Don’t be shocked if Jim Mora, Jr. benches Vick for Matt Schaub at some point in the season. Seriously. Vick believes his own hype and it might take wake-up call to bring his ego back down from the stratosphere.
Biggest Game: September 12, at San Francisco - If the Falcons can’t beat the lowly 49ers, their season will be over as soon as it starts.
Playoff Chances: Slim - The only reason I didn’t change the Falcons 9-7 record is because it would have screwed up all my other predictions. I think they’ll finish with a sub-.500 record that will cause people to question why Arthur Blank hired Jim Mora Jr. as head coach.

Carolina Panthers (7-9)

Pardon me for not joining everybody on the Panthers bandwagon. I feel like an outsider – like I’m rooting against Rocky or something.
I’ve tried to drink the Panthers Kool-Aid, but after watching the team more than I would like to admit for the past five years (going to school in North Carolina has its obvious disadvantages), I just can’t.
Living in Winston-Salem and watching all those 1:00 games with the D-list FOX announcers have taught me two indelible Panther facts:
1) Nobody liked the Panthers until they became good last season. I went to bars every week to watch the Redskins play on the DirecTV package and not once during my first four years did I see anybody rooting for the Panthers. Last year, when the Panthers finally got good and began rolling through the NFC South, you couldn’t go anywhere without seeing somebody wearing one of those ugly teal uniforms. Now I understand that people are going to jump on the bandwagon once a team becomes good (a la all Dallas Cowboy fans), but it seemed that every single Carolina Panther fan (with the exception of one Christopher Scott Spencer, who was loyal even in the dark days of the Seifert-era) pledged their allegiance to the team after they beat the Bucs to go 2-0. That always makes me mad.
2) The Panthers weren’t very good last year. They kind of reminded of the 2001 Bears in that they won a lot of close games on miraculous plays and seemed to be firing on all cylinders when they needed it most. But every time I watched them play I was convinced that they weren’t that good of a team.
Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith were given no respect by opposing defensive coordinators, who focused their energy on stopping Stephen Davis. You would think that after a few weeks people would begin to realize that Delhomme was pretty good, but it took teams forever to stop putting eight men on the line to stop Davis. The Panthers defense was solid, but unspectacular. Julius Peppers is overrated and takes off a bunch of plays but guys like Kris Jenkins and Mike Rucker are as good as advertised.
The 2003 Carolina Panthers were a solid football team, but hardly the best team in the NFC. If a couple of plays go against them they would have been 9-7 and fighting for a playoff spot. This year they’ll come back down to earth and play closer to their talent level.
Jake Delhomme is a fine quarterback with a good head on his shoulders, but he’s kind of like Brad Johnson. He’s good enough to not lose games, but not great enough win games by himself either.
Stephen Davis was a great addition for the Panthers (had he stayed in Washington, Steve Spurrier might still have a job and Joe Gibbs would still be spending Sunday’s at the NASCAR track), but he is getting perilously close to the 2,000 career carries barrier.
His backfield mate DeShaun Foster is lightning-fast, but duel running back situations just don’t work out well. (For those people who drafted both Davis and Foster for your fantasy teams, you’re not as smart as you think and you’re pretty much screwed unless one of them gets hurt. You can’t reliably start either one unless they’re assured of getting the bulk of the carries, which neither is at this point).
Carolina’s defense will still be top-notch (even with a mediocre secondary), but the team won’t be as lucky as they were last season and will lose some players to injury and come up short in games that they won in 2003.
Key Player: Jordan Gross, T - The Carolina o-line is a mess. It’s up to Gross to be the anchor. If not, we’ll see how great Delhomme is with defenders in his grill on every pass attempt.
Biggest Game: September 19, at Kansas City - The Cats open at home against Green Bay on Monday night and then have a short week to prepare for the potent Chiefs offense. Starting the season 1-1 would be a success, but 0-2 is a distinct possibility.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 - The Panthers have as good a shot at making the playoffs as they do at missing them.

New Orleans Saints (7-9)

If Michael Westbrook were a football team, he’d be the New Orleans Saints. Every year Jim Haslett’s squad has the tools to contend for the NFC South (or previously, the NFC West) crown. But every year they are done in by stupid penalties (Kyle Turley’s helmet throwing incident of 2001), stupid turnovers (Aaron Brooks had the fewest interceptions of any starting quarterback, but made up for it by fumbling 14 times) and stupid players (Joe Horn).
This year they are everybody’s sleeper. Keep dreaming people.
Key Player: Donte Stallworth - One more disappointing year, and he can be the official carrier of Michael Westbrook Syndrome on the team most afflicted with the frightening disease. While I’m well aware of the effects of MWS, I still get sucked in every year, as this is the third consecutive season I have Donte Stallworth on one of my fantasy squads.
Biggest Game: November 7, at San Diego - Like clockwork, the Saints have a crushing defeat each season against an inferior opponent.
Playoff Chances: Like M. Night Shyamalan’s The Village - Not horrible, but not very good either.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams (12-4)

As loath as I am to give credit to an egomaniac like Mike Martz, I still have to put his team atop my NFC West predictions.
There are a lot of reasons to count out the Rams: Marshall Faulk is old, Kyle Turley is out, the defense is vulnerable and Orlando Pace will be out of shape after missing his second straight training camp due to contract issues.
Let me address these one by one.
1) An old Marshall Faulk is still better than a young Kevan Barlow.
2) Even with Turley last year the Rams gave up 43 sacks (third-most in the NFL). Turley is great, but the Rams can’t do much worse without him.
3) The Rams D that helped the team finish 12-4 in 2003 returns 10 of 11 starters.
4) Orlando Pace is 6’7 and listed generously at 325 pounds. When, I ask, was he ever in shape.
Key Player: Marshall Faulk, RB - Marshall doesn’t need to be the Marshall of 2000. He’ll still have his nose for the end zone, and with rookie Stephen Jackson joining the mix, Faulk should get a well deserved rest during games.
Biggest Game: December 27 (Monday), vs. Philadelphia - A rematch of the 2002 NFC Championship game. A win here for either team might be the difference between a home Wild Card game and a first-round bye.
Playoff Chances: Solid Gold - St. Louis has made the playoffs in four of the last five seasons. They’ll make it five for six in 2004.

Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

Every year one team emerges as the trendy preseason Super Bowl pick. Usually the team is an up and comer that either narrowly missed the playoffs the year before (or lost in heartbreaking fashion in the early rounds) and has improved in the previous two seasons.
Last season the Cincinnati Bengals earned the distinction. In 2002 the Kansas City Chiefs were the August media darlings while the year before the New Orleans Saints were the hot Super Bowl pick.
This year the Seattle Seahawks have been pegged by NFL analysts as the favorite in the NFC and, frankly, they’re not a bad choice as they fit the criteria for the trendy pick: Last season the Seahawks took the Packers to overtime in a Wild Card game at Lambeau Field, before losing via a Mike McKenzie interception return for a touchdown. The team returns all of its key offensive starters, and added Grant Wistrom (who signed a massive contract in the off-season) to the defense.
On paper, the Seahawks look unstoppable. But NFL games aren’t played on paper. If they were, then the Panthers never would have been in the Super Bowl last year and Patriot players wouldn’t be wearing rings from 2001.
The Seahawks are a good team. Shaun Alexander is one of the best backs in the league, Matt Hasselbeck is solid, the receiving trio of Darrell Jackson, Koren Robinson and Bobby Engram is one of the best in the league (when they aren’t dropping balls), Marcus Trufant is an up-and-coming corner and rookie linebacker Niko Koutouvides is Greek. With that potent roster, the team could easily go 13-3.
But they won’t.
I can’t say why, I can’t say how, but I believe that the Seahawks won’t make the playoffs. Maybe Matt Hasselbeck will get hurt. Maybe the defense won’t be as good as people think. Perhaps Koren Robinson drops a few key touchdowns and gets into a screaming match with Hasselbeck on the sidelines. Or after a poor game against the Rams, the locker room divides into two camps: Matt and Trent and chaos breaks out. What if Starbucks hijacks the Seattle area water treatment plants and replaces the drinking water with its double espressos and the Seahawks unknowingly drink the tap water and then go on the field caffeinated up like Kramer after his latte settlement.
All of these things could happen and I’m betting that something similar will.
Let’s not forget that the Seahawks haven’t won a playoff game since 1984 and that Mike Holmgren hasn’t won one without a quarterback named Brett.
All of these things are just too much to ignore. There are forces working here that are best left undisturbed and unexamined.
Trendy preseason picks never pan out. It’s kind of like the Sports Illustrated jinx, only much less publicized. Mark it dude. The Seahawks won’t make the playoffs.
Key Player: Shaun Alexander, RB - Alabama Dave says Shaun Alexander is the best running back in the history of football. And when Alabama Dave speaks, the world listens.
Biggest Game: October 10, vs. St. Louis - The ‘Hawks get a bye-week to prepare for their first showdown with the Rams.
Playoff Chances: Good - Just because I’m rambling on about a trendy-preseason-Super Bowl-pick-hex doesn’t mean it will necessarily come true. After all, I am the same guy who once said predicted that nobody would be interested in three movies about The Lord of the Rings.

San Francisco 49ers (3-13)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Was it just 19 months ago that the Niners were playing in the NFC Divisional playoffs? That team was coached by Steve Mariucci and featured Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens, who both made the Pro Bowl.
Now, all three are gone. Mariucci began the exodus after he was abruptly let go following the 2002 season. He was inexplicably replaced by Dennis Erickson, who in four seasons with Seattle never led the team to a winning record.
Only in professional sports can incompetence be rewarded so often. If Dennis Erickson or Tim Floyd worked in any other profession and were the same abysmal failures that they’ve been as professional coaches, the two wouldn’t just be fired, they’d be blacklisted so quickly that neither would be able to get a job bussing tables at a strip club in Greenland. But because these guys have “pro coaching experience”, they get multi-million dollar deals to prove that they’re losers yet again. Unbelievable.
Not surprisingly, San Francisco struggled last year as the locker room turmoil between Garcia and Owens reached its boiling point. Both are gone, as are the team’s starting running back, #2 receiver and two starting offensive lineman.
The 49ers are a wreck and the 2004 season will likely be the worst season by the bay in 25 years.
Plus, the team has Mike Rumph, a cornerback that makes the Redskins' Ade Jimoh look like Night Train Lane.
Key Player: Kevan Barlow, RB - Solely because he’s the only 49ers player that should be routinely starting on fantasy football teams. Brandon Lloyd is a sleeper, but a trendy sleeper (a la Donte Stallworth last year), and you all know how I feel about trendy picks. Barlow was the most overrated fantasy player this year, but should still produce some good numbers if he’s your #2 back. Without any passing game in San Francisco, opposing defenses will put eight men in the box and try to stuff Barlow. He’ll get a lot of carries and a couple TD’s, but if Barlow is your top back, you might want to go visit the trading block.
Biggest Game: October 10, at Arizona - The last time two winless teams met this late in the season was in 2001 when the 0-5 Redskins met the 0-5 Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Don’t be shocked if the Cards and Niners both sit at 0-4 for this barnburner.
Playoff Chances: Zip - Did I mention that their coach is Dennis Erickson?

Arizona Cardinals (3-13)

Since 1985 the Cardinals are 90 games under .500. To include them in the same preview with actual NFL teams is a disservice to all the other organizations that put a premium of winning and pleasing their fans.
Key Player: Josh McCown, QB - New coach Dennis Green actually said that McCown reminds him of Brett Favre. Maybe it’s because they both seem to have an aversion to shaving. OK, I’m lying. I’ve never seen Josh McCown’s face in my life. He could look like the Gerber baby for all I know. The reality is, it’s getting late and writing 32 NFL team previews is getting to me.
Biggest Game: October 31, at Buffalo - Only because none of the other 31 “biggest games” were on Halloween, and I didn’t want Halloween to get mad at the other Sundays.
Playoff Chances: Absolute Zero - One trip to the playoffs since the year of the U.S. bicentennial. Do the math.

NFL Picks: Week 1 (Opening Game)

Indianapolis over New England (Pick changed, 6:01 p.m.)

Tomorrow: Final NFL projected standings, playoff predictions and Week 1 picks

NFL Preview: Part III – NFC East and NFC North Previews

I've been gone for a bit and the Blogger website has been acting up all day, so in the words of Darius Songaila, "let's cut to chase." Onto the previews:

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

The Eagles have finished with a regular season record of 11-5 or better in the previous four seasons. And for the past three years, Philly has advanced to the NFC Championship Game and lost (twice at home).
If Philly has been that good for the entire 21st century, it would stand to reason that the addition of Terrell Owens should finally catapult the Eagles into Super Bowl. Right?
Not so fast.
Like other successful NFL teams during this stretch, the Eagles have relied on their defense to win games. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson has done a fantastic job of plugging holes in his defense made by injury and free agency and every year when it seems like the Eagles lost enough players to effect the D, the unit still winds up being one of the NFL’s best.
Not this year though. In 2004 the personnel turnover will finally catch up with the Eagles.
Gone are cornerbacks Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor, two cornerstones of the Eagles defense during their recent run of success. They are replaced Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard, the former who was last seen decking Steve Smith in the third quarter of the NFC Championship, incurring a crucial pass interference call that led to a decisive Carolina touchdown.
Jevon Kearse will help with the Eagles blitzing schemes, but with Ndukwe (Don’t Call Him ND) Kalu out for the season the Eagles pass rush won’t be as effective as hoped.
Jeremiah Trotter and Hugh Douglass both return to Philly for the 2004 season, fresh off miserable stints with other teams. Trotter looked like his feet were in cement blocks during his two years in Washington, while Douglass looked either old or like he didn’t care while in Jacksonville. Neither is a good thing.
And then there’s the offense.
The departure of Duce Staley and the loss of Correll Buckhalter will effect the Eagles more than the arrival of Terrell Owens. Without the running back duo, the load falls on the quick, but small, Brian Westbrook. Westbrook has injury problems and the chances of him getting through the season without one is about the same as T.O. making it to January without publicly griping about Donovan McNabb’s passing ability.
What, you didn’t think I was gonna go there?
Donovan McNabb is not a great quarterback, or for that matter, even a very good one. His completion percentages are shockingly low for a quarterback playing in the west coast offense (57%, when 65% is the goal), he throws too many interceptions at crucial times and since his 2002 injury, McNabb’s running has become less of a threat.
The battle cry of McNabb supporters over the past four years is that the former Syracuse QB hasn’t had any good receivers to throw to. Now that Owens is there, they argue, Donovan will be a more effective passer.
That’s a logical viewpoint, but I’ll disagree with it. I think the addition of Terrell Owens will only hurt Donovan McNabb’s numbers.
Here’s why: Donovan is not an accurate passer, even his staunchest supporters can’t disagree with that. Before, when James Thrash, Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell were his only options, McNabb didn’t have a go-to guy and could look off receivers to find a better option. Now with Owens on the field, Donovan will try to get him the ball more often, forcing ball to T.O. even if he’s covered. With Donovan’s inaccuracy, he will see more balls getting picked off as a result.
T.O. and Donovan are all buddy-buddy now, with Owens calling his new quarterback the “best in the league”. But just wait until Donovan skips a few balls to a wide open T.O. or throws three interceptions in a game. Donners isn’t a pushover like Jeff Garcia was in San Francisco. If T.O. calls out McNabb, look for fireworks.
Key Player: Donovan McNabb, QB - For the reasons stated above.
Biggest Game: December 12, at Washington - Might be for the NFC East title.
Playoff Chances: Solid - Even with a depleted defense, an overrated quarterback and a selfish new receiver, the Eagles are still one of the best teams in the NFC. Andy Reid is an underrated coach and always has the Eagles prepared to play… unless it’s the NFC Championship Game.

Washington Redskins (10-6)

The biggest news of the off-season in Washington was the return to D.C by a key member of the Redskins’ past. Of course, offensive lineman Ray Brown wasn’t the only old-timer to come back to DC.
Joe Gibbs has returned to the sidelines and brought his old pals Joe Bugel, Don Breaux, Ernie Zampese and Bubba Tyer back out of retirement for the ride.
It’s been 12 years since Gibbs retired from football, citing a desire to be with his family. Now, more than a decade later Gibbs is tanned, rested and ready and inherits an underachieving ball club heavy on talent, but thin on nearly everything else.
The Steve Spurrier era was characterized by dumb penalties, inept clock management and lack of preparation. With Gibbs and company back in the saddle, those problems should disappear. But will that be enough to take the Redskins back to the playoffs, where they haven’t been since 1999?
The team that Gibbs and defensive guru Gregg Williams will work with is markedly different than the one that Spurrier coached last season. In are Mark Brunell, Clinton Portis, Shawn Springs, Mike Barrow, Marcus Washington and Sean Taylor and out are Champ Bailey, Jeremiah Trotter, Bruce Smith, Regan Upshaw, Trung Canidate and Jessie Armstead.
It’s a definite upgrade. Bruce Smith was hanging on for his pathetic sack record (which should read: Most Sacks Since 1979, When The Stat Was First Invented), Jeremiah Trotter and Jessie Armstead’s best days were behind them, while Trung Canidate never had any best days to begin with.
The Champ Bailey for Clinton Portis deal was met with skepticism in the media. Most writers and analysts said it is tougher to get a shutdown corner than it is to get a star running back. Ergo, the Redskins should have held onto Champ Bailey and looked elsewhere for a back. I’ll agree with the first statement. Shutdown corners are rarer than gamebreaking running backs. The problem is, Champ Bailey was never a shutdown corner. He’s a great cover corner, plays well and is deserving of most of the accolades he receives. But Champ isn’t a shutdown corner. Just watch any Broncos game this year. You’ll see two things: 1) Quarterbacks will throw on Champ, early and often. If he were a real shutdown corner then he wouldn’t see anything come his way all game. 2) On those passes, Champ will get beat badly for touchdowns about once every three games. Watch him, you’ll see.
The trade was fantastic for the Redskins, much like the Nomar trade was great for the Red Sox. On paper, it looks like each team got hosed. But the Skins weren’t going to re-sign Champ anyway (much like Nomar was as good as gone from Beantown following the season), so they got a star running back in his stead. Forget about the second round pick. With their last such pick the Redskins selected Taylor Jacobs. Giving Dan Snyder a second round pick is just filling up another roster spot for three years with a mediocre player with tons of “upside”.
With Portis in place, the Redskins running attack will be strong enough for Gibbs to run his system. That system won’t be pretty or fun to watch at first, but once it does begin to work, the run will set up the play-action and the Redskins offense will run like a BMW 6 series.
Some say that Gibbs has been out of the game too long and that he won’t be a success in the NFL (namely Len Pasquarelli at ESPN.com).
It’s contended that Gibbs’ absence from the NFL will harm him, not because the game on the field has changed, but because the landscape around it has become so different. In Gibbs’ day there was no salary cap, teams could stash away young players on the injured reserve and the Redskins stars weren’t multi-millionaires with attitude problems.
Surely Gibbs will be in over his head in the present day NFL, critics contend. To which I say: critics of Joe Gibbs are a bunch of morons.
Joe Gibbs has been a success at nearly everything he’s done in life. To suggest that he won’t be an effective coach because of a salary cap is like saying Van Gogh wouldn’t have been a good artist if he had to use crayons. Greatness can be adjusted.
Fools like Pasquarelli seem to think that Gibbs was in Biosphere 3 for the past decade and hasn’t paid attention to the NFL. If idiots like Len Pasquarelli can figure out the salary cap, then do they really think that Joe Gibbs won’t be able to learn about it? Geez, Len. You’ve never coached in the NFL but you write about it all the time.
Joe Gibbs will be fine. The Redskins will eventually get back to their winning ways. The only question is when.
Key Player: Kenyatta Jones, RT - Jones replaced Jon Jansen, who sustained a season-ending injury in the Redskins first preseason game. Jansen was dubbed by Bugel as the “#1 Dirtbag” (Bugel’s pet-name for the Skins O-line), and was to be responsible for Mark Brunell’s blindspot. Now Jones, a part-time starter of New England’s Super Bowl teams, will have to fill that role. Jansen’s injury is bigger than most people realize, but if it had to happen, it was best that it occurred early in the preseason. Had Jansen gotten hurt in Week 1 then Jones only would have had five days to work with the first-team. Since the injury came in August, Jones has started in four preseason games and should be ready to go by Sunday.
Biggest Game: September 27 (Monday Night), vs. Dallas - Gibbs returns to primetime and faces his old NFC East foe Bill Parcells.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 - Last year Parcells took a sorry Cowboys team to the playoffs. Gibbs is a better coach and has much more to work with. Gibbs gets a one-year grace period before his second coaching stint can be judged, but he probably won’t need it.

Dallas Cowboys (8-8)

In his previous three coaching jobs, Bill Parcells took over bad teams and by his second year had them in the playoffs. Last year with the Cowboys, Parcells was a little ahead of schedule, guiding Dallas to their first payoff appearance in four seasons. So this year, history says that Parcells and the Cowboys should start making reservations for Jacksonville in February.
That might not be a bad idea, I hear Jacksonville is lovely that time of year. But the only way Parcells is getting into the Super Bowl is if he cold cocks Cris Collinsworth and steals his media credential.
The Cowboys were the worst playoff team in the NFL last season, and they haven’t done much to improve themselves this year. Oh, they’ve made a lot of moves, but don’t confuse that for improvement.
At halfback the ‘Boys let Troy Hambrick go and replaced him with a decrepit Eddie George. Hmm, Eddie or Troy? It’s like choosing between eating at Hardee’s or an Indian restaurant. You’d rather have different choices, but if forced to pick one you know you’re ending up with heartburn and a 3.2 yard per carry average either way.
What about the quarterback situation? Vinny Testaverde is a small improvement over Quincy Carter, but does anybody really expect Vinny to play all 16 games? And if he doesn’t, Parcells will have to choose between a guy famous for ribs (Tony Romo) and a dude best known for making Yankees fans forget about Brien Taylor (Drew Henson). (Speaking of the Yankees: Real compassionate move demanding a forfeit from the Devil Rays after the team wanted to stay in Tampa to be with their families during Hurricane Frances and ended up missing the front-end of a planned doubleheader. One week after comparing his team’s resiliency to New Yorkers after 9/11, Steinbrenner once again proved that money can buy Kevin Brown, but it can’t buy class.)
Keyshawn Johnson is also there, so the Cowboys should see a surge in six-yard receptions. As for touchdowns, forget it. Keyshawn has contracted a bad case of endzoneaphobia (maybe he caught it from Tiki Barber) and hasn’t been an endzone fixture since Bill Clinton was in the White House.
Defensively, the Cowboys aren’t as bad. The line will continue to stop the run, but defending against the pass might be difficult for the team’s overrated secondary. Roy Williams might be football’s next great safety, but most people who are saying that didn’t watch Williams look soft in pass coverage last year or be woefully out of position on running plays.
The Cowboys finished 10-6 last year because Parcells is a good coach and they got a few lucky breaks (remember the Monday Night meltdown by the Giants?) They’ll be lucky to break .500 this time around.
Key Player: Eddie George, RB - If Eddie is on the bench, the Boys might be able to make a late playoff run. If he does play, look for George to make a run at the magical “under three-yards-per-carry barrier”. That would be truly historic.
Biggest Game: November 25 (Thanksgiving), vs. Chicago - A public service announcement to all Cowboys “fans”: Be careful when jumping off the Dallas bandwagon this week. Those things can move fast, particularly when they are speeding in reverse as the Cowboys one will be after a loss to the Bears drops them to 4-7. It’s been nice having you up above ground since Parcells came back, but now that it’s looking like the playoffs won’t happen for “your team,” we’ll see you when all of you reemerge with the cockroaches next time Dallas has a winning record. I’ll enjoy seeing Irving Stadium half-empty at the end of the year, you fair-weather jackasses.
Playoff Chances: Nope - I think the words “backup quarterback: Tony Romo” say it all.

New York Giants (4-12)

You know how Wheaties puts Olympic champions and teams that win the Super Bowl on their box? Well, if every cereal did that, then the 2004 New York Giants would probably be on a box of Mueslix.
Key Player: Michael Strahan, DE - Every team has to send somebody to the Pro Bowl, right? Wait, that’s only in baseball.
Biggest Game: October 3, at Green Bay - Eli’s first start?
Playoff Chances: Nil - George Bush has a better chance of winning the New York City vote.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (11-5)

The Packers were a play away from the NFC Championship game last year. And since Brett Favre doesn’t choke in big games like Donovan McNabb does, the Packers likely would have met the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Now, eight months later, people are writing off Brett Favre and the Packers. They say he’s too old, that his consecutive games streak is wearing on him and that the team's window of opporunity has shut.
Favre isn’t done though. Yeah, he might be forcing the ball a bit too much and the zip on his throws isn’t like it used to be, but if I had to pick one quarterback to start one game with my life on the line, I’d choose Brett Favre (assuming Babe Laufenberg was available to back him up.)
With Ahman Green lining up behind Favre, the offense will be able to put up enough points to compensate for a mediocre defense and the Packers should repeat as NFC North champions.
Key Player: Ahman Green, RB - As long as his sweaty arms don’t cause him to fumble, Ahman is the best running back in the NFL.
Biggest Game: September 13 (Monday Night), at Carolina - The Pack open the season on Monday night against the defending NFC champions.
Playoff Chances: Solid - Are you going to bet against Brett Favre?

Minnesota Vikings (11-5)

In theory, a team with Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss should never miss the playoffs. But in theory, communism works and a TV show based on My Big Fat Greek Wedding would be a smash hit.
After starting last season 6-0, the Vikings stumbled to a 3-7 finish and missed the playoffs thanks to a loss to the lowly Cardinals in the year’s final game.
This year the Vikings offensive weapons return and the defense has vastly improved through free agency (Antoine Winfield) and the draft (Kenechi Udeze).
The Vikes might need to get off to another hot start this year to have a shot at the postseason, as three of their last four games are against potential playoff teams.
Key Player: Antoine Winfield, CB - The 2003 Vikings were 27th in the NFL in pass defense. Winfield will be need to be effective if the secondary wants to improve.
Biggest Game: December 24 (Friday), vs. Green Bay - Brett Favre and the Packers visit Minnesota for a Christmas Eve showdown. If the Vikings smoke the Green, they'll have the inside track to the division title.
Playoff Chances: Solid - Assuming there are no late-season collapses, the Vikings should participate in the franchise’s first playoff game since their 41-0 loss to the Giants in the 2000 NFC Championship game.

Chicago Bears (7-9)

Bears preview courtesy of the Wolfman:
grossman's going to struggle somewhat in the new offense that's receivers are inexperienced and led by david terrell, thomas jones looked good in the preseason and might finally have found a home, especially with a scheme that seems to fit his strengths. the defense will be improved, finally getting a pass rush with ogunleye and charles tillman is becoming a stud, though he's physical and might have some trouble with the new rules for corners and hopefully urlacher will be a star in the attacking scheme that utilized his speed
Key Player: Thomas Jones, RB - He’ll either prove the existance of the Michael Westbrook Syndrome, or be the Jonas Salk of his era.
Biggest Game: November 14, at Tennessee - The Bears go to Nashville after facing the 49ers and Giants in consecutive weeks. Those are two winnable games. If the Bears can upset the Titans, they could find themselves in the playoff hunt.
Playoff Chances: Mostly Cloudy - The Bears did go 13-3 a few years back, so a Wild Card berth this year wouldn’t be shocking.

Detroit Lions (6-10)

Only three NFL teams won’t play a game this season in primetime – Arizona, San Diego and Detroit. Since the Lions force themselves into the nation’s houses every Thanksgiving, I really don’t have a problem with them not getting a chance to play under the lights.
But San Diego? Does this mean LaDainian Tomlinson is going to miss the Pro Bowl again? Among fantasy football players there is much love for Tomlinson, but to the football-watching public he is an unknown. (One thing about fantasy players: They love their Danie, which is great. But a lot of people consider him the undisputed #1 pick of the fantasy draft. I’m not saying I’d argue with selecting him #1, I just think that Priest Holmes and Ahman Green are better picks. Tomlinson plays on the Chargers, and he’s going to have games where his yardage and touchdown totals are hurt by the fact that his team is out of the game early. Holmes and Green won’t have that problem. LaDainian isn’t a bad #1 pick. But he’s far from the undisputed #1 player in fantasy football.)
This was a Lions preview?
Key Player: Joey Harrington, QB - Why has Joey Harrington gotten a free pass from the media? In his two NFL seasons Harrington has looked totally overwhelmed at times, and that’s on his good days. He was the #3 pick in the draft and has started 28 games in the NFL. This is the season he needs to step up. If not, I hear Heath Shuler is hiring at his realty company.
Biggest Game: September 19, vs. Houston - #1 pick David Carr vs. #3 pick Joey Harrington. Kind of reminds me of the Angola-Serbia and Montenegro basketball game I watched during the Olympics.
Playoff Chances: Not Gonna Happen - Well… unless Matt Millen makes a mid-season trade for Rasheed Wallace.

Tomorrow: Patriots-Colts pick, NFC South & West Previews.
Friday: Playoff Predictions and Week One Picks

After my foot surgery, I was told that the severe pain I was experiencing would give way to mild discomfort at about the four-day mark. Two weeks later I'm still waiting for that to happen and as a result am continuing to pop enough pills to give Robert Downey Jr. a run for his money.
I've been trying to get through the NFC Preview, but the second I grab my laptop I start thinking about how much better things were before I placed a hot computer with a blinding white screen on my lap. So, I put the laptop down, turn the TV back on, adjust my pillow and try to keep my eyes open while attempting to find something else to watch besides The Lizzie McGuire Movie.
I'm going to try to have the Preview done sometime Tuesday afternoon. If not, I'll post something - either my predicted won-loss records of the NFC teams, some thoughts about the baseball pennant races or my ruminations on why Isabella let Lizzie McGuire sing for her during the Italian version of the Grammy's, even after they got back at Paulo and sang their duet. And for that matter, how did Lizzie know all the words to the new song she sang and the accompanying dance moves? And most importantly, which genius in the casting department decided that the dude who played the main nerd in Revenge of the Nerds would be convincing as Hillary Duff's father?

NFL Preview: Part II – AFC South and AFC East Previews

Today, Part II of Chris’s Sports Blog NFL Preview.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

Peyton, Edge and Marvin. Not exactly Abraham, Martin and John, but in the NFL, they’re about as close to a holy trinity as the league has ever seen.
Is there a single threesome in the recent history of the league that you would take over these three? Bradshaw, Harris and Stallworth? All three of them were Hall of Famers and won four Super Bowls, but most people would still go Peyton and company. What about Montana, Craig and Rice? Clearly Montana and Rice are the cream of the crop when it comes to quarterback-receiver combinations, and Roger Craig’s pass-catching ability aside, he seems like a throw-in to the deal.
I’m sure I’m forgetting some other famous triumvirates, but for my money, I’ll take Peyton, Edge and Marvin. In today’s NFL there isn’t a group that’s even close. Think about it this way. Would you take any twosome over Peyton and Edgerrin or Peyton and Marvin? Maybe Brett Favre and Ahman Green would get some votes in the QB/RB tandem and a very strong case could be made for the Vikings throw-and-catch combo of Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss.
Either way, the Colts “big three” is as good as it gets. And with the whole group healthy (namely Edgerrin James) for the first time in three years, the Colts offense looks close to unstoppable.
Unfortunately for Indy, as the last four Super Bowl champs have shown, defense wins championships, and if that’s the case, then the Colts can hold off on buying the bubbly.
Gone are Chad Bratzke and Marcus Washington, replaced by players that will represent a major downgrade at their respective positions.
Dwight Freeney is one of the best blitzers in the league, but is ineffective against the run and safety Mike Doss was another rookie safety overrated because of his big hitting ability (see Williams, Roy).
The one upside to the defense is that they have Tony Dungy coaching them, and that should help a little. But when there’s not much in the cupboard, it’s tough to make a gourmet meal.
Key Player: Nick Harper, CB - The four-year veteran started a career-high 13 games last year for the Colts, and this year will be slotted as the top corner, after the departure of Walt Harris. If he can succeed in that role, there might be a glimmer of hope for the Colts defense. If not, expect a lot of 38-35 shootouts this season.
Biggest Game: December 5, vs. Tennessee - This game will help decide which team will win the AFC South crown, and which team will be left to fight for the Wild Card.
Playoff Chances: Get Your Tickets Now - Even if the Titans (or Jaguars) win the AFC North, the Colts offense should help take advantage of a light schedule and at least sneak into the Wild Card round. Once there, Peyton Manning will need to again prove that he can win in the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

My pick for this year’s version of the Carolina Panthers, Jacksonville has all the tools to make a playoff run in 2004.
Jack Del Rio is in his second year coaching the team, and the Jags defense should continue to improve on their performance from the second-half of last season.
The unit was #2 against the run thanks to tackles John Henderson and Marcus Stroud, but the release of the Jaguars two starters at defensive end, Hugh Douglass and Tony Brackens, have fans in the panhandle worried.
Brackens and Douglass were shells of their former self’s though. Douglass seemed content collecting a huge paycheck and didn’t look prepared for most of last season’s games, while Brackens was always injured.
Their release will open the door to some younger, inexperienced players who might struggle early in the season but should adapt well to Del Rio’s containment schemes.
Fragile Freddy Taylor has amazingly started 32 consecutive games over the past two seasons, which means he’s due for a breakdown any day. But if he can stay upright throughout the season, it would be a big boon to second-year QB Byron Leftwich and the Jags could make a surprising run to the playoffs.
Key Player: Byron Leftwich, QB - The former Marshall quarterback didn’t start until week five last season, but those 11 starts should pay dividends this year. Leftwich improved throughout the year, leading the Jags to a 4-4 finish in the second-half, but he threw too many interceptions (16, vs. 14 TD’s). If he can continue to get better (seems like a theme for Jacksonville), then he could have a breakout season.
Biggest Game: December 26, vs. Houston - In the second-to-last game of the year, David Carr and the Texans head east to Jacksonville. The Jags could be in the thick of the playoff hunt and need home victories against inferior teams if they want to play in the postseason.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 - Like the Panthers last year, the Jaguars will need a few lucky breaks if they want to get to 10 wins. After all, the Panthers 2003 season began with an improbable come-from-behind victory against these very Jaguars. If Taylor stays healthy and Leftwich keeps learning, the Jags could be playing well into January.

Tennessee Titans (9-7)

The Titans have a long list of departures that most would classify as losses. Eddie George, Jevon Kearse and Justin McCareins will all wear different uniforms this season, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Kearse has regressed in each year following his breakout 1999 rookie campaign. The Eagles overpaid for him (with their cap space, they could afford to) and the Titans should be happy they don’t have his contract clogging up their cap room. It’s a loss, yes. But not one the team can’t rebound from.
Eddie George is the most overrated player in the league who is not named Donovan and Chris Brown should be an immediate improvement in the Tennessee backfield.
Justin McCareins was a good #3 receiver last year, but his numbers don’t justify his big contract and Tyrone Calico should fit into the slot just fine.
So with all this praise for the Titans, why do I have them going 9-7? Two words: Steve McNair.
McNair is fantastic. He is the epitome of a gamer, a guy who gives his all every game, plays hurt and is a true leader. That being said, he’s due for a major injury. Everybody knows it’s coming, but it’s something that isn’t talked about in social circles, like religion. McNair’s seemingly had a deal with the devil for the past four seasons and has played with injuries that would have sidelined even the toughest quarterbacks.
If he does go down, Billy Volek is an acceptable backup, but obviously, he’s no McNair. This year’s Titans have all the makings of one of those close, but no cigar teams.
Key Player: Bruce Mathews, OL - Wait, he doesn’t play anymore?
Biggest Game: November 28, at Houston - Yes, the Colts game a week after this one is probably more important, but the game in Texas is the second of a three-game road trip that has the Titans playing in Jacksonville on the 21st, Houston the 28th and Indianapolis the week after. The Colts game will likely be huge, and the Titans might look past the Texans as a result. Jeff Fisher will do everything in his power to ensure that this doesn’t happen, but if the Texans are 4-8 at the time, it might be tough to do that.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 - If McNair is healthy, and Chris Brown can handle the rigors of a 16-game schedule and the defensive line doesn’t miss The Freak too much, the Titans will be back in the playoffs for the third straight year. That’s a whole lot of “ifs” though.

Houston Texans (7-9)

Did I really pick the Texans to go 7-9? Hmm, maybe I should go back and check my numbers.
The entire offense if unproven (yeah, Domanick Davis had a great finish to the season, but would you be that comfortable if he was your team’s starting RB?), the defense has studs (Aaron Glenn, Jamie Sharper, Robaire Smith) mixed in with duds (Junior Ioane, Seth Payne, Antwan Peek) and their kicker is pressure-choker Kris Brown.
Key Player: Domanick Davis, RB - He needs to do two things for the Texans to be successful: 1) Prove his 1,000 yard season wasn’t a fluke, 2) Keep his injured ankle healthy.
Biggest Game: December 12, vs. Indianapolis - If the Texans can stay a game or two under .500 during their brutal first two months of the season, a win in this game could give the team a boost headed into three winnable games to close out the season (at Chicago, at Jacksonville, vs. Cleveland).
Playoff Chances: Don’t Count on It - 7-9 is probably a bit of a stretch, but definitely doable.

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)

After getting picked apart for Peyton Manning in the divisional playoffs last season, it would have been a safe assumption that the Chiefs would spend their off-season bolstering their woeful defensive unit.
But the only new additions to the Chiefs defense were Lionel Dalton and Cliff Crosby, players so valued by their previous employers that they weren’t even offered new contracts when they became free agents.
Without a solid defense, the Chiefs can expect to win a lot of high scoring games in the regular season, but won’t get a sniff of even the AFC Championship Game.
Key Player: Priest Holmes, RB - Yes, the defense is important, but without Priest this team is nothing. Holmes will turn 31 during the season, an age that usually begins a running back’s decline. But the former backup to Ricky Williams at Texas has only been an NFL starter for four seasons, and hasn’t even reached 1,500 attempts yet for his career. Barring injury, Priest should have at least two seasons left in the tank.
Biggest Game: November 22 (Monday Night), vs. New England - If the Chiefs want any chance to win in the playoffs, they’ll need to get home-field advantage throughout. This game against New England could go a long way to determining that.
Playoff Chances: Near Lock - If the team stays healthy, they’re as good as in.

Denver Broncos (10-6)

Jake Plummer is the Michael Westbrook of quarterbacks. His case of MWS is so bad that the New England Journal of Medicine recently devoted a special double-issue to his case.
This year is no different for Plummer. Some media-types (Peter King, Sports Illustrated) have gone as far as to name Plummer their early pick for NFL MVP. That’s a whole of high expectations just waiting to come crashing down. Maybe I’ll have to rename it Jake Plummer syndrome.
NFL MVP? That’s just insane. And a whole lot of capital letters. Mike Shanahan is a genius, sure. But he’s a situational genius like Mike Holmgren. It’s real easy to be brilliant when John Elway and Brett Favre are your quarterbacks. It’s what you do with Trent Dilfer/Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Plummer that really separates you from the pack.
And without their two stars, the two coaching geniuses have a grand total of zero playoff victories. Hey, Scorsese made a great movie that included a dramatic role by Cameron Diaz, and those fools can’t win a stinkin’ playoff game? Even Jim Haslett has led his team to a playoff W.
Where was I going with this? Right, the Broncos.
Let me ‘splain. No, that would take too long. Let me sum up.
Plummer is good, but unproven in big games, the Broncos offensive line will still produce a 1,000 yard rusher, but Quentin Griffin is no Clinton Portis and Champ Bailey is not the shutdown corner that ESPN.com writers would have you believe. (Watch how many balls opposing quarterbacks throw to receivers covered by Champ. A true shutdown corner sees maybe four passes a game go his way. Go look at tape of Deion in the mid-‘90s. He wasn’t getting anything thrown even remotely close to him. Champ gets more balls thrown his way than Ivan Rodriguez. Don’t get me wrong, Champ is good, maybe even close to great. But he will not be a true shutdown corner, and he won’t make the Bronco’s defense better simply by being on the field, as has been claimed. If that was true, then why did the Redskins defense not improve because of him?)
I guess one would think by my thoughts on the Broncos that I expect them to go 6-10, but Plummer can be effective if he has time (which the O-line will give him), Griffin or Bell will get their 1,000 yards, and the defense will be helped by the presence of Champ Bailey, shutdown corner or now.
The Broncos should be a playoff contender.
Key Player: Darius Watts, WR - The rookie out of Marshall could become a big-play threat for Plummer. Without Shannon Sharpe, the Broncos receiving corps is hurting. Rod Smith has lost a step and Ashley Leli seems to never have had one, so Watts needs to step up and give Plummer a target.
Biggest Game: September 12, vs. Kansas City - The Broncos and Chiefs open their season next Sunday night on ESPN. The teams will get a big test early and whoever comes out on top will get a big confidence boost early in the year.
Playoff Chances: Mostly Sunny - Denver lost a lot and added a lot in the off-season, but has a team that should match last year’s 10-6 record. What they want to avoid, however, is a repeat of last year’s playoff performance (41-10 loss to Indianapolis).

Oakland Raiders (4-12)

Even after it was clear that the Raiders 2003 season was in the toilet, I kept picking them each week because I thought “they can’t be that bad… can they?” They were, and this year I’m taking out my frustration of them.
Do I think they’ll really be a 4-12 team? Probably not, but the Raiders do have a brutal schedule (their last six games are all against teams that figure to be in the playoff chase), so 4-12 might not be that far off.
Plus, Al Davis hired Norv Turner, which is kind of like calling Captain Joe Hazelwood to right your sinking ship.
Rich Gannon is done and should be replaced mid-season by Kerry Collins. The Raiders receiving corps is also a mess. Jerry Porter is the top dog, ancient Jerry Rice is the #2 and among the players battling out for the third spot is Ronald Curry (yes, that Ronald Curry, of UNC football and basketball fame).
On the other side of the ball, the cornerbacks are the only solid position, assuming that Charles Woodson doesn’t quit on Norv Turner like he did with Bill Callahan.
Key Player: Norv Turner, HC - Turner’s a great offensive coordinator. But his head coaching skills leave a lot to be desired. That’s about as nice as I can put it.
Biggest Game: November 21, vs. San Diego - A battle for last place. Craig Bolerjack and Beasley Reece should have a good time calling this game for CBS.
Playoff Chances: Ummm, No - With the Raiders, Chargers and 49ers all facing four to five win seasons, Dr. Dre might want to do a remix to “California Love” called “California Fourth and 20”. All he’s gotta do is place a call down to 2pac in Cuba and they could have that single out by Halloween.

San Diego Chargers (3-13)

Reason #372 the Pro Bowl is lame: Last year’s rosters included Tony Richardson, Gary Stills, Casey Hampton, Adalius Thompson, Jerome Woods, Alex Bannister and Corey Chavous. Not included: LaDainian Tomlinson.
If the Chargers didn’t have Tomlinson this year, they would be staring at an 0-16 season. As it is, they still should come in under their win total from last year (four).
Had Philip Rivers been signed on time, he might have had an alright season. But his forced holdout will only make San Diego that much worse.
They’re going to be real bad. Ashlee Simpson, Father of the Pride bad.
Key Player: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB - What, you were expecting Adrian Dingle?
Biggest Game: January 2, vs. Kansas City - Marty Schottenheimer’s last game with the Bolts.
Playoff Chances: When Pigs Fly - Although that has a good chance of happening first.

NFL Preview: Part I - AFC East and AFC North Previews

It's been a long seven months without football.
Now, the NFL is back. The endless preseason is finally winding down and the opening kickoff is only eight days away.
Today is the first part of Chris’s Sports Blog seven-part NFL Preview. For the first four days we’ll go through each of the NFL’s eight divisions, previewing each team and predicting their final record.
Unlike most of the NFL previews you’ll read in the upcoming days, the predicted records on this site are actually based on each team’s season schedule. Meaning, I went through the entire NFL master schedule and picked each of the 256 games and added up each team’s won-loss record. Most of the NFL previews you’ll read in the upcoming days will predict a team’s final record by picking a number of wins and mixing and matching the totals of all 32 teams until a 256-256 total is met. Maybe. I added up the numbers in a reputable fantasy football magazine I picked up and their total won-loss record for the entire league was an impossible 254-258.
After the division previews (which will end on Monday), I’ll make my picks for the playoffs, which will be followed by individual awards predictions, a fantasy football breakdown and some more stuff leading up to the start of the NFL season Thursday, September 9, when the Colts head to Foxboro to face the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots. Not coincidentally, we’ll start Chris’s Sports Blog NFL Preview in the Pats division, the AFC East.
Predicted records in parenthesis.

AFC East

New England Patriots (12-4)

Let’s cool all the talk about the Patriots being a dynasty unless they win the Super Bowl this year, alright? It’s a bit premature to rank a team that has won two championships in three years, with a playoff miss sandwiched in between, on the same level with the Steel Curtain Steelers and the 49er teams of the late ‘80s.
The Patriots are a good team. Last year, they were the best team. But they were far from dominant.
A win is a win in the NFL and the Patriots rattled off 15 of those in a row en route to their second Lombardi trophy. But if you look closer at those wins, you’ll see that the Patriots were far from the well-oiled machine that many would have you believe.
An ugly 9-3 victory at home against Cleveland, a last second field goal to beat a second-year expansion team and three close playoff games (one gift-wrapped by Peyton Manning, another thanks to clutch-kicker extraordinaire Adam Vinatieri) were all included in New England’s winning streak.
The Patriots didn’t get lucky in winning those games, but the NFL is a game of inches and one or two plays usually are the difference in a close game. So, in a different season, with some different bounces, maybe a few of those 15 wins turn into losses and maybe the Patriots don’t win the Super Bowl.
I’m not trying to knock the Pats, I’m just saying that their supposed supremacy isn’t all its cracked up to be.
They will still be a good team this year and run away with the AFC East, however.
Don’t get too excited about the addition of Corey Dillon though. Boston sports fans know what a clubhouse cancer can do a team (witness the Lazarus-like resurgence of the Red Sox after the team jettisoned an unhappy Nomar Garciaparra), and Dillon is quite renowned for being just that.
Combined with the fact that Dillon has taken a pounding during his brief NFL career and will exceed the dreaded 2,000 career rushing attempts barrier that seems to cripple the running ability of anybody not named Payton or Sanders and the signing doesn’t look to promising.
Key Player: Rohan Davey, QB - The Pats are kind of like a synchronized swimming team, they work best when they work well together. And if the team’s anchor, Tom Brady, should go down during the year, NFL Europe MVP Rohan Davey would have some awfully big shoes to fill. While Brady fits perfectly into Charlie Weis’ offense, Davey is still a bit green to play in the NFL and gets knocked for having tunnel vision, something that wouldn’t fly in the Pats’ scattered passing attack.
Biggest Game: October 10, at Miami - If the Patriots can win their first three games to stretch their winning streak to 18, a win in south Florida would give them the record for most consecutive games won by a team (including playoffs). The Pats could also break the record for most consecutive regular season wins (held by the 1933-34 Chicago Bears) if they could start the season 6-0. Neither will happen. Look for the Pats to win their first two, then trip-up after the bye-week in Buffalo on October 3.
Playoff Chances: Near Lock - Anything can happen in the NFL, but if you had to put money on one team to make the playoffs, the Patriots would be your safest bet.

New York Jets (9-7)

Herm Edwards coached teams always play to win the game. Helllllllooo? You hear me? They PLAY-TO-WIN-THE-GAME.
Last year, the Jets only played to win in six of their 16 contests, but in fairness, their starting QB Chad Pennington broke his wrist in the preseason and didn’t return until week 9 and didn’t look like he was fully recovered until early December.
This year, Pennington is healthy, the Jets gave Santana Moss another receiver to line up with in Justin McCareins and the defense in New Jersey has been overhauled, with Ted Cottrell out and Donnie Henderson in.
First-round draft pick Jonathan Vilma should help a depleted linebacking corps, but the season-ending injury of Ray Mickens leaves a hole in the Jets secondary, particularly in nickel and dime sets.
Curtis Martin, as always, is a question mark. His durability had been questioned every year recently, but Martin has responded with 1,000 yards, 16 starts and a 4.0 yard per carry average in four of his last five seasons.
Key Player: Justin McCareins, WR - McCareins will either prove to be a solid #2 receiver who takes pressure off Santana Moss and allows Wayne Chrebet to settle in to a comfortable role as a possession receiver or he will be yet another #3 receiver who parlayed solid numbers against soft coverage into a lucrative contract that he won’t see the end of because his skills don’t hold-up against starting corners. I think it will be the former, but I’ve seen too much of the career of James Thrash to know that the latter is a distinct possibility.
Biggest Game: November 14, vs. Baltimore - Ray Lewis and the Ravens head up I-95 to face the Jets in Week 10. It will be the ninth game of the year for the Jets, and the team could conceivably be sitting at 5-3 before kickoff. Even if the Jets are only 4-4, a win would give the team a fighting shot at a playoff spot. A loss, and the team can start looking to 2005.
Playoff Chances: 40/60 - The Jets face no 2003 playoff teams in their first five games. If they can get off to a good start, the schedule stays pretty light throughout the season and the Jets could find themselves playing meaningful games in December. Ending the season with New England and St. Louis doesn’t help matters though.

Buffalo Bills (7-9)

The departure of defensive-minded head coach Gregg Williams, who was fired and now is in Washington with Joe Gibbs, doesn’t figure to hurt the Bills too much.
New head coach Mike Mularky retained Williams’ assistants, and their plan is to keep the Bills defense the same.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t the Bills defense that was the problem in 2003.
Last season Drew Bledsoe looked like he was auditioning for a role in the second act of “Behind the Flattop: The Rise & Fall of Kurt Warner”, and the entire Bills team suffered for it. The Bills front office was so impressed by Bledsoe’s performance that they traded up to select quaterback J.P. Losman in the first round of the draft.
After the Bills dominated the Patriots 31-0 in the infamous Lawyer Miloy game to open the 2003 campaign, their season was marred by close, but no cigar, finishes that weren’t helped by Bledsoe’s 11 TD, 12 INT performance.
The Bills don’t have too much help behind Drew this year, unless you count Shane Matthews, and if you do count Shane Matthews, then maybe you and the Wolfman should talk.
The only drama in Buffalo this year figures to be the running back battle between Travis Henry and Willis McGahee. Both have professed their desire to be a starting running back. Henry, coming off back-to-back 1,300+ seasons figured to have more of a case, but McGahee has the Miami pedigree and an agent who can, and will, threaten a trade at any time.
Henry’s ribs are giving him problems, and if he misses a start, McGahee could turn the former Pro Bowler into a modern day, gridiron Wally Pipp.
Key Player: Drew Bledsoe, QB - Will he be like a young Al Pacino in Serpico or an old Al Pacino in Simone?
Biggest Game: November 21, vs. St. Louis - This one falls in the middle of a tough four-game stretch that sees Buffalo play the Jets, Patriots and Seahawks. If the Bills can escape from those games 2-2, their season could be a success.
Playoff Chances: A Few Good Bounces - The difference between 7-9 and 9-7 might be a few plays. A tipped ball here, a penalty there, voila! That’s the difference between picking in the Top 10 of the draft or playing in January. The Panthers last year were the prime examples of this phenomenon. The Bills could be this year too. Don’t count on it though.

Miami Dolphins (4-12)

With Ricky Williams retiring to go chill with Jerome Baker, David Boston out for the season, and the least inspiring quarterback controversy since the Panthers chose between Chris Weinke, Dameyune Craig and Matt Lytle in 2001, the Miami Dolphins figure to have a rough year. Maybe this will finally end the tenure of Dave Wannstedt, who somehow has a 41-23 record in Miami yet only has mustered one playoff win.
Wannie has to pick between A.J. Feely and Jay Fielder for the starting QB role. A.J. vs. Jay. What is this, a reality show to see who can become the sixth member of N’Sync?
And two quarterbacks with the last names of Feely Fiedler? That could be the name of the Hamburglar’s fence.
Key Player: Ricky Williams, RET - Man, did he screw over the Dolphins or what? Now they want his signing bonus money back from the contract he signed with the Saints? What a mess. Can’t you see a special 2-hour Law & Order about this, except the retired player would be named Dicky Gilliams and the team would be the Miami Fins, cause the show is only “inspired” by real events.
Biggest Game: December 25, vs. Los Angeles Lakers - Kobe and Shaq I.
Playoff Chances: Go get Heat season tickets.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

I’m glad the media didn’t go too overboard with Deion Sanders return. I bet he thought there was going to be special reports on ESPN, wall-to-wall coverage on ESPNews and special commemorative editions of The Baltimore Sun upon his arrival back.
But luckily, cooler heads have seemed to prevail, and the press is either a) still jetlagged from Athens or b) has realized that Deion is a shadow of his former self and probably couldn’t even beat Brian Billick in a footrace.
During his brief stint with the Redskins, Deion was beaten more times than the Angolan Basketball team and made observers say “the old Deion could have made that play” approximately 2.4 times per game.
Now, three years removed from the game, Deion wants to come back? It doesn’t matter that he only wants to play in nickel packages. Deion’s done, like MC Hammer. They’re out. Deion, either get in the booth or go on The Surreal Life.
As for the Ravens, Brian Billick is a pompous jerk, Kyle Boller is in over his head, Jamal Lewis should be worrying more about his trial than breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record and Ray Lewis’s Madden commercials make me so pumped up that I use my recliner as a tackling dummy every time I see it.
Baltimore got jobbed on the whole Terrell Owens deal and didn’t get a quality receiver as a result, but with Kyle Boller throwing the ball, it shouldn’t matter too much.
The Ravens are a solid team that will win more than they lose, but need Jamal Lewis on the field if they want to make the playoffs.
Key Player: Jamal Lewis, RB - Obviously.
Biggest Game: December 5, vs. Cincinnati - This game might be for first place in the AFC North. And, with only two Wild Card spots available, might be for the North’s lone playoff berth.
Playoff Chances: Better Than Most - The Ravens should be able to hold of the Bengals for the AFC North crown. But the North teams play a tough interdivision schedule, so beating the easy teams is a must. Sounds simple, but it’s not.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

The Bengals are the biggest question mark in the NFL. Some examples:
Can Rudi Johnson be an effective running back for 16 games?
Will Carson Palmer make Bengal fans forget about Jon Kitna?
Chad Johnson: Big-time receiver or 2003 fluke?
What would possibly possess a presumably level-headed General Manager to sign Patrick Johnson?
Is the coaching of Marvin Lewis enough to save a depleted Bengals defense?
Jon Kitna: Why J-O-N? That’s not the John Voight spells it.
Biggest Player: Carson Palmer, QB - The Bengals have a legitimate shot at winning their division. How short of a leash will Lewis have on Palmer if he messes up early?
Biggest Game: December 5, at Baltimore - Well, if it was Baltimore’s biggest game, doesn’t it stand to reason that it would be Cincy’s also?
Playoff Chances: Don’t Plan On Buying Advance Tickets - Palmer might be a second-year player, but he’s still a rookie in terms of on-field action. He’ll take his share of lumps, but too many could run the Bengals out of playoff contention early in the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

On paper, the Steelers look like a pretty respectable team that should be able to contend for the AFC North title. Of course, on paper, the USA Basketball team looked a whole lot better than their competition, and we all know how that one turned out.
The bright spots on the Steelers (receiver, linebacker, both lines) are negated by the dead spots (quarterback, receiver, home city).
How can any NFL team go into a season with Tommy Maddox firmly entrenched in the starting spot. I can’t imagine how Steelers fans must feel. That’s like watching your daughter go down the aisle with Dennis Rodman. I give Tommy five weeks before Ben Roethlisberger replaces him.
Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis probably won’t be able to move the chains too much on offense, but they should be able to get the team a nice AARP discount at diners and movie theaters.
Key Player: Plaxico Burress, WR - Burress is the poster child for Michael Westbrook Syndrome. This is fourth consecutive year of high expectations. So will he finally come through? Ahh, my friends. You obviously don’t know much about the horrors of MWS.
Biggest Game: October 17, at Dallas - The Steelers travel to Irving in Week Six. With the bye week looming, a win here could be the difference between 4-2 and 3-3.
Playoff Chances: A Few Good Bounces - Pittsburgh isn’t a good team, but isn’t a bad team either. Bad teams routinely make the playoffs (see Cowboys, Dallas, 2003), so counting the Steelers out now is a bit premature. Still, a record between 7-9 and 9-7 is most likely.

Cleveland Browns (3-13)

Jeff Garcia gets a bad rap.
“His numbers were only good because of the 49ers offensive system.”
“Anybody can throw to Terrell Owens.”
“He was drinking cosmos before he got caught for drunk driving, what a woman.”
Yeah? Well let’s see how Tim Rattay does in the same 49ers system this season and how the inaccurate Donovan McNabb does throwing to T.O. As for Garcia’s drink of choice; at least he didn’t drink Malibu for his pledge night fifth.
If Garcia’s back doesn’t act up this season, he should put up gaudy numbers for the Browns. After all, with Cleveland’s defense, Garcia figures to be throwing the ball early and often this year.
Lee Suggs and Willie Green should provide a nice running back tandem and if Kellen Winslow Jr. can shut up long enough to learn the playbook, he will be one of Garcia’s favorite targets.
Key Player: The Davis’s – Andre & Andra, WR & LB - Mainly because they both have their full names spelled out on their jerseys. I love that. If only Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila could do the same.
Biggest Game: January 2, at Houston - This game, coupled with a tilt at Miami the previous week, could help decide whether Butch Davis will be asked back as coach in 2005.
Playoff Chances: None - Every year in the NFL one team, left for dead in the preseason, makes an improbable run to the playoffs. This season, the Browns will not be that team.

Tomorrow: AFC South & AFC West Previews