Bracket Tips

Opinions on how to fill out your NCAA brackets are like embarrassing drunken stories – everybody, except the Amish, has one.
The problem with bracket tips is that everyone claims to be an expert because they’ve read a one-paragraph summary of Oakland’s season and watched the ESPN Bracketology special. Everybody has can’t-miss teams and potential sleepers today, but by Friday they’ll have forgotten about them and jumped on another bandwagon.
In reality, nobody can predict the NCAA Tournament with any real degree of accuracy and that’s what makes the thing so damn fun.
To be successful with your brackets you don’t need to read every single statistic and analyze game-film, you just need to combine a little bit of knowledge with a little bit of analysis and then hope you step in a big pile of lucky.
Go on any one of the three major sports sites on the Internet (ESPN, SI and Sportsline) and you’ll be deluged with information ranging from the size of Montana’s center to the three-point percentage of Creighton’s backcourt. Just like with any piece of info, you’ll be able to skew the data anyway you choose. If you want to believe that Ohio can beat Florida, you’ll likely find a way to justify your prediction. If not, it won’t be difficult to rationalize selecting Florida instead.
Sifting through all the data, info, predictions, analysis and stories is a daunting task. How can you separate the good tips from the bad ones, the pertinent info from the worthless? You can’t, that’s why you should keep your research to a minimum. Identify the best teams in the major conferences and at least three or four mid-major upstarts and go from there.
Listen to what experts have to say, but, as you’ve learned from an early age, don’t believe everything you read (or hear). This week everyone will say that there’s no way a #2 seed will lose in the 1st round this year (as if those monumental upsets are ever expected), or how Illinois is a lock for the Finals (just like Kentucky was last year).
One analyst will guarantee that Wake Forest will come out of the West (I am still refusing to call the regions by their location names) and another will be just as sure that Louisville will come out of that region.
But nobody really knows, and therein lies the beauty of March Madness: Anything can happen, and usually does.
A #2 seed could easily lose, it’s happened four times before. And there is no such thing as a lock for the Final Four as Kentucky has proven the past two seasons.
Did anybody think that Coppin State would beat South Carolina a few years back? How many people really predicted that Syracuse would cut the nets down in 2003? I’m sure there is a lot of people that claim they did, but few that are actually telling the truth.
The point is, if being knowledgeable about college basketball translated into NCAA pool success, then Digger Phelps and Andy Katz would predict all 63 of the games correctly. Instead, both analysts were in the 20th percentile on ESPN.com’s Tournament Challenge last year, finishing behind people that couldn’t name the North Carolina coach if you gave them the “R” and the “O”.
It’s a cliché, but in so many office pools the secretary who has never watched college basketball and thinks that Gonzaga is the new Viagra competitor often wins.
Why? Because there is no right way to make the picks. I’ve watched a lot of college basketball this season, probably more than 95% of the people I will be competing against in various pools. Yet, I’ll probably finish up somewhere in the middle of the pack.
Why?
Because the only thing predictable about the NCAA Tournament is its unpredictability.
And that’s what makes March Madness so wonderful. If each of the four top seeds advanced to the Final Four every season, filling out brackets and watching the 1st and 2nd round games wouldn’t be as fun. The one-and-done format of the Tournament lends itself to high drama, stunning upsets and intense pressure of every single possession. And that, in turn, makes filling out brackets an exercise in guesswork, at best.
With that word of warning, I now will offer some tips on how to have a great looking bracket on Thursday morning turn into a mediocre bracket by Thursday night.

- Be wary of picking too many big upsets. Me giving out this advice is like Courtney Love being the keynote speaker at a Just Say No! rally, but this year I plan to tone down my upset zeal. Really, I do.
In years past I always picked a lot of shockers. Sometimes it works; I remember the glorious run of the Kent State Golden Flashes to the Elite Eight in 2002 and basking in the praises of my peers for such a clairvoyant pick. But for every Kent State on my resume, there are about 40 Michigan States, a #10 seed I thought would make a deep run in that same 2002 tourney, but ended up being out of the tournament at 2:30 on the first Thursday. The Wolfman knows what I’m talking about; he had Southern Illinois in the Elite Eight last year. They lost in the first round.
You’re better off having a few upsets early (#12 over #5 has happened in 13 of the past 14 years) and then picking a sleeper team that falls in the #6 to #10 range to make it to the Sweet 16, but nothing more than that. Look at it this way: If you pick a big upset and it doesn’t pan out, you’re brackets will be crippled. If the upset does happen, it won’t kill you since nobody else in your pool is likely to pick it anyway.
Keep the upsets to a minimum and choose your Sweet 16 teams carefully, peppering in a #10 seed (there always seems to be a #10 over #2 upset) along with a mostly chalk bracket. This leads me to the next tip…

- In the later rounds, ignore seedings. Washington is a good team, even if they didn’t deserve a #1 seed. But in a game against Wake Forest or Gonzaga on a neutral floor, the Huskies would probably be the underdog.
Wake finished 13-3 in the brutal ACC and was ranked in the top five of the polls for most of the season. Washington, on the other hand, hovered outside the top 10 during the year and suffered four losses in the mediocre Pac-10. Both are great teams, but a Wake win wouldn’t be considered an upset, and you shouldn’t look at it as one.
A handy rule is, if the seeding difference is three or less, an upset it’s not, I must profess.
(Sorry, I read Horton Hears a Hoo to some kindergartner's earlier.) Kansas has spent the entire season ranked higher than Connecticut, yet they are a #3 seed in the East, compared to UConn’s #2. If Kansas wins, some might consider it an upset, but in actuality, it will be one good team beating another.
This is similar to the next rule…

- Don’t be scared of picking numerical upsets, particularly in first round 8/9 and 7/10 games. A few years back Maryland, as a #5 seed, played College of Charleston (#12) in the first round. At the time Maryland was ranked #22 in the nation while Charleston was #14 in the polls. This is an extreme example (CoC won, mainly because Gary Williams spent the entire week complaining about the match-up), but oftentimes you’ll find 10 or 11 seeds who are more highly regarded than the 6 and 7 seeds they are playing.
If N.C. State had played Charlotte two months ago, a 49ers win would have been considered an upset. On Thursday, a State win would get that distinction, even though the teams are evenly matched. Don’t fall into that seeding trap.

- Pick three out of the four #1 seeds to make it to the Elite Eight. This is usually a pretty safe bet, even though it didn’t happen last year (Kentucky and overrated Stanford were knocked off before the Regional Finals). But, from 1997 to 2003 there was only one year when less than three top seeds advanced to the final eight.

- Buck conventional wisdom. Let’s tie this tip into the last one. Washington, like St. Joe’s last year, has become everyone’s favorite bracket punching bag. On ESPN.com 68% of people believe that Washington won’t even see the second weekend. This is reminiscent of what happened to St. Joe’s. But, the Hawks showed they were worthy of their lofty ranking and came within a Jameer Nelson jumper of advancing to the Final Four.
Think of the advantages if you pick Washington to go to the Final Four and they end up making it. You’ll have a huge advantage in your pool since everybody else probably will have them losing to Georgia Tech or Louisville.
It’s funny – if Washington was a #3 seed in this region and Wake and Gonzaga moved up a seed each, the Huskies would likely be considered a sleeper. But because a lot of people are turned off by their high seed, Lorenzo Romar’s team is thought of as overrated.
That won’t matter once the ball is tipped. Washington has a good a chance as any to make it to St. Louis. If you pick them to make it, you could find yourself rolling in the dough Indecent Proposal-style in three short weeks.

- Conventional wisdom is a good thing. The prohibitive favorites for the 2000, 2001 and 2002 tournaments were Michigan State, Duke and Maryland. I don’t need to tell you who won those three tournaments.
Last year, most analysts believed that Connecticut was the team to beat if Emeka Okafor’s back held up. It did and Uconn won their second championship in six seasons.
There’s a reason why Illinois and North Carolina are the favorites this year: Because they are two of the best teams in the tournament.
My point: Don’t get cute with these picks. Illinois is 32-1 for a reason. UNC and Wake didn’t win over 13 ACC games by accident. They’re great teams. Even if you don’t believe in the invincibility of Illinois (like me) or think that UNC’s defense makes them vulnerable (like me), the first two rounds aren’t the time to test that theory. Play it safe and move those two to the Elite Eight, at the very least.

- Put at least one sleeper into the Final Four. Georgia Tech (#3 seed) in 2004, Syracuse and Marquette (both #3) in 2003, Indiana (#5) in 2002, Maryland (#3) in 2001 and North Carolina and Wisconsin (both #8) in 2000 are recent examples. Arizona, Louisville, Villanova and Syracuse are just a few of the mid-seeded teams that could easily find themselves in St. Louis in early April.

- Beware of trendy picks. Trendiness is for suckers and Sarah-Jessica Parker. I have been espousing the virtues of a unique offshoot of anti-trend philosophy since I began this blog 14 months ago, and my theory was proven correct this year in the NFL when I told you to stay away from the bandwagons of the Seahawks, Saints and Kevan Barlow at the beginning of the season.
The NCAA Tournament is a little different. Trendy teams tend to be highly seeded, and I’m obviously not going to tell you to stay away from the pink tie of the basketball world, Illinois (by the way, I started the whole pink tie craze when I was 14. Now I can’t wear my signature neckwear without looking like a tool. I wore one a few weeks ago and some broad said, “ooh, those ties are so in right now” to which I responded, “that’s ‘cause I made them in, baby. I make the trends.” She then asked if I owned a pair of Uggs and wore one of those Live Strong bracelets.) Anyway, try to avoid mid-seeded teams that a lot of people are picking to advance far.
Georgia Tech comes to mind, even though I like their style and picked them to win the ACC Tournament (did you see my picks by the way? I was one terrible Duke Edsall call away from nailing the entire tournament).
Florida is another team that has had to open up the second-level of its bandwagon, so watch out for them.
Both are streaky teams that could lose in the first round or advance to the Final Four. Be wary.

- Don’t read anything into the conference tournament losses. The only thing conference tournaments are good for is determining who is hot. Georgia Tech, for instance, is one of these teams. Yes, I said beware of them above, but they had a solid run through the ACC Tournament and seem to be playing well together for the first time all season.
On the flip side, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Kentucky, Connecticut and Kansas all suffered tough losses in their respective conference tournaments, but won’t be any worse for the wear come Thursday.

- Ignore the polls and the RPI. If you want to look at numbers, check out a team’s non-conference RPI and their cheerleaders. The non-conference RPI will give you insight into a team’s ability to change up their game (since teams in the same conferences tend to play a similar brand of ball), while looking at the cheerleaders will allow you to look at the cheerleaders.

- Under no circumstance should you ever listen to Dick Vitale. In fact, you should probably look at Vitale’s bracket and pick the exact opposite of what he does. (Note: Shockingly, Vitale picked Duke to make it to the Final Four. Amazingly, Vitale also has Duke winning his NIT pool and American Idol.)

- Beware of hyphenated schools. Sure, Farleigh-Dickinson might look and sound like a great pick (“well, I like Emily’s poetry and I did enjoy There’s Something About Mary and Kingpin, so that team MUST be good!”) but think about all the hyphenated celebrities you loathe. These include the former Rebecca Romijn-Stamos (I wasn’t even married to John Stamos like her, yet I still have considered taking Uncle Jesse’s last name. Come to think of it, how great would it be if her name had been Rebecca Romijn-Katsapalous) and Jean-Jacques Rousseau (let’s just say that my Philosophy grade sophomore year would have benefited if Mr. Anti-Private Property had kept his frog-thoughts to himself).
I even dislike people with hyphenated names that I’m supposed to like, like Nik Caner-Medley. I remember the first time I saw that tall drink of water I thought to myself, “man, I would hate this guy so much if he went to Duke.” And then I saw Lee Melchionni for the first time and realized how right I was.

- When in doubt, pick the team you like less. Here’s why: Let’s say I pick Duke to go the Final Four. Now, I don’t like Duke. Some might even go so far as to say that I hate Duke. Others would say that I believe, along with North Korea and Michael Eisner’s office, that Cameron Indoor Stadium is the most evil place on earth. A select few might venture a guess that if I had to choose between watching Duke win the Final Four or playing Julius Hodge in the off-Broadway play, “Memoirs of a Nad Puncher: The Chris Paul Story”, I’d immediately change my name to Julius, grow a wispy mustache, lose 90 pounds and start preparing for the NBDL.
But I digress. I don’t like Duke, but if I’m having a hard time figuring out whether to put Duke or Syracuse to get to the Final Four, I’ll pick Duke. That way, if those stuck-up preppies win, I can take consolation in the fact that it might end up winning me money. And if they lose, then I won’t be at all upset about losing money because it will mean that J.J. Redick will cry himself to sleep on the shoulders of Shavlik Randolph, and knowing that makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Maybe Chris Carawell can send them a box of tissues when they lose, unless he’s not done crying about Duke’s 2000 loss to Florida. (A quick note: The day after that game (which was a Sweet 16 match-up) I went to visit a friend at Duke – I was a freshman at Wake Forest at the time. (And yes, I had a friend that went to Duke. I was in therapy for two years dealing with this, so I’d rather not go there.) Anyway, I borrowed my buddy’s Florida Basketball t-shirt and wore it to Durham and didn’t take it off for the entire weekend. (Note: I’m not a Florida fan, but was that weekend because anybody who beats Duke is solid with me.) Once on campus I would walk up to people, with my Florida t-shirt in full view, and ask how I could get Duke Final Four tickets or where I could buy a Duke Final Four hat. Other times I would ask random people the score of the game.
Amazingly, not one person said anything remotely creative or derogatory to me after my snide comments. Some even laughed. The worst I got were a few dirty looks and some mumbled comments as I walked away.
Now, if those Cameron Crazies were actually crazy, they would have chased me off campus. Instead I had the run of those losers for three days and they didn’t even break out a “how many national championships has Florida won?” What a bunch of pansies. But I digress.)
This rule works also for teams you like also. I want Wake Forest and Kansas to do well in the Tourney. Sure, it’d be sweet if they both made it to the Finals and I predicted they’d be there. But if I’m not sure, I’ll pick, say, Illinois and Syracuse.
So, if the Deacs and Jayhawks make it to the Championship, I’ll be so happy that it won’t matter if my brackets are screwed up. If they don’t, then I’ll still have a chance at winning some money. If I pick my favorite teams and they end up losing, then I’m doubly screwed.
Let’s call this the “Cut Your Losses” method.

- Don’t pick more than one school without a state in its name to be in the Final Four. This means, if you have Boston College, Wake Forest, Villanova and Duke coming out of their respective regions, you better get back to work.
Most years the Final Four is dominated by schools with states in their name like Michigan State, Connecticut, Kentucky and North Carolina. In fact, Duke, Marquette, Syracuse and Stanford are the only non-state named schools to make the Final Four since 1992. I bet you don’t find that statistic on ESPN.com. Take that Joe Lunardi!

- Don’t expect Texas Tech to be playing on the second weekend. Bobby Knight coached teams have not advanced past the 2nd round since his Indiana teams were wearing those short-shorts.
Also, in a little known piece of movie-trivia, Wesley Snipes’ famous line from Passenger 57 - “Always bet on black” – was originally scripted as “Never bet on Bob Huggins in the Tournament”.

- Try not to get too cute with your picks. Yeah, its fun to pick George Washington over Georgia Tech because you can’t get enough of Pops Mensah-Bonsu and it might be nice to put Penn in the Sweet 16 because your best friend Harry’s little brother Larry went there, but try to ignore those thoughts.
Picking upsets is overrated. Cinderella’s are great for the Tournament, but the clock always strikes midnight and if you’re stuck on the dance floor when your spiffy Sean Jean tux turns into that pit-stained Schweppes t-shirt you stole from a girl streaking the quad, you’re gonna lose your pool entry fee and all your self-respect if you let a red-headed, Syracuse-born Irishman win your pool (not that I’m bitter, Tim O).
Remember, it’s rare that a team seeded lower than #5 makes it to the Final Four (it’s happened thrice since 1992). So try to limit your upsets to the early rounds and don’t knock off any team you think has a good chance of advancing far.
If the mood to get sassy with your picks should strike you, try this method instead – fill in the teams you think will be in the Sweet 16 first. Then, work backwards and if you see an upset possibility in the first round, pick it.
For instance, if you think Syracuse is going to win their second round game regardless of whom they play, then consider taking Old Dominion to beat Michigan State. Since you have the ‘Cuse in the Sweet 16 anyway, you won’t lose too much if MSU should win the first round game, but you’ll get a nice leg-up on the competition if ODU springs the upset. It’s a nice risk-reward play.
This is especially key in pools that reward upsets. Which leads me to the next tip…

- Take a look at how your pool is being scored. Everybody has a different method for scoring. Some pools emphasize the Final Four so much that 1st round games are left relatively meaningless. In these pools, try to have as much of a chalk bracket as you can. In other pools, the points aren’t staggered nearly as much between the 1st Round and Final Four, so every game counts. In these, pick a few upsets and take a risk by advancing one of your sleeper teams to the Sweet 16. Other pools greatly emphasize upsets. When filling out brackets for this kind of pool, work backwards from the Sweet 16 like I suggested above.

- Pick a #1 seed to win the whole thing. In nine of the last 13 years, a number one seed has hoisted the Championship trophy on the first Monday in April. The past two years have bucked this trend, Connecticut won with a #2 last year following Syracuse, who won with a #3 the year before. But before that Connecticut, Michigan State, Duke and Maryland made it four straight years that a #1 seed went all the way.
If you don’t pick a #1 seed to win it, at least have two #1’s in the Final Four.

- Along with the “Cut Your Losses” method, here are some other ways to pick the outcome of that pesky game you can’t figure out:
1) Compare at the coaches. Example: Cincinnati vs. Duke. Bob Huggins vs. Mike Krzyzewski. One knows the alphabet, one gets stuck on that pesky L-M-N-O quadrant. Need I say more?
2) The tougher the mascot, the tougher the team. This is also known as the “Scott Van Pelt Theory”. The SportsCenter anchor, and Maryland alum, says when in doubt, figure out which mascot would win in a no-holds barred brawl. Example: N.C. State Wolfpack vs. Charlotte 49ers. This is tougher than picking between a Tiger and a Panther (Pacific/Pitt), but I think I would give the slight edge to State on this one. After all, Michael J. Fox, Justin Bateman (circa 1988) and Nick Streit could definitely beat up Jeff Garcia, Garrison Hearst and Eddie DeBartolo.
3) Ask yourself… What Would Uncle Jesse Do? (By the way, what the hell is ABC thinking premiering John Stamos’ new show Jake in Progress on the opening night of the NCAA Tournament? That’s like scheduling a Seinfeld reunion at the same time as the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show.
4) Look for signs. If you channel surf past Meet the Press and see James Carville on, you know that the University of Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun’ Cajun’s are the pick over Louisville. Maybe you open Sports Illustrated and read a story about the biggest NBA busts. If that’s the case, then Duke becomes your choice. Or lets say you run into my buddy Antzo on the street and you smell one of the 43 different colognes he owns. Then you can be confident that the school named after St. Mary, the patron saint of perfumers, will take you to the promised land.

- Don’t let your picks take away from your enjoyment of crazy upsets. If Alabama A&M is up late on North Carolina and you have the Tar Heels winning the whole thing, you still have to root for A&M even if it destroys your bracket. This is a law in 37 states and the District of Columbia. There’s nothing worse than not enjoying the celebration after a buzzer beater because you’re checking to see what it does to your brackets.

- Avoid listening to any bracket tips from people in your pool. If those tips were any good, why would they be giving them to you? There's nothing worse than switching a pick because of a 'sure-fire' tip from a friend and then watching that team lose to your original winner.

To all four of my female readers, don’t listen to any advice from guys. We are a manipulative, repulsive and deceitful gender, and any tip you get from us will likely be geared towards one day seeing you naked.
When you ask Frank from Accounts Payable who he has in the Austin bracket, here is the way the conversation will sound to you:

You - Who do you have winning Duke’s region?
Frank, from Accounts Payable - Well… long pause... Duke is alright, but I’m going with Kentucky. Their point guard is quick off the dribble and the way, um, Tubby Jones runs screens can trip-up defenses that don’t like playing a triangle-and-two.
You - Wow, that's sounds great! Thanks Frank.
Frank, from Accounts Payable - No problemo.

Now, here’s how the conversation plays out in Frank’s mind.

You - "Who do you have winning Duke’s region?"
Frank’s (from Accounts Payable) Inner-Monologue - Oooh, she's talking to me. And Tournament questions, no less. She needed a sports question, so she came to the most athletic guy in the office (adjusts cell-phone belt-clip). I don't blame her, I am studly (runs hand through thinning hair). I always knew she wanted me, but this confirms it… Bravo Frank, bravo you sly dog. You better do some laundry so you have clean underwear for later. And where did I put my going-out shirt? I hope it's not that crumpled up thing I saw in the hamper today. Shoot, I might have to buy some more Downey Wrinkle Release. And cat food. Oh crap, she’s waiting for an answer. Well, how should I play this? Do I act all aloof like I don’t care or dazzle her with my non-existent basketball knowledge? Well, she’ll never know if I’m just BS’ing her, so lets go with that.
"Duke is alright, but I’m going with Kentucky."
Oh crap, I don’t know any players on that team. Why couldn’t I have gone with Syracuse, I know Carmelo Anthony… Alright, think, think… Ahh, dammit. Just make something up.
"Their point guard is quick off the dribble and the way..."
DAMN! What’s the coaches name? Something weird… Porky?
Um...
No, that’s the movie… Bubby? Crap… TUBBY!
"Tubby Jones runs screens can trip-up defenses that don’t like playing a triangle-and-two."
WHEW! That was pretty good, I don’t know if that’s Tubby’s last name though. And thank goodness I played NBA Live with my roommate last week or else I never would have known that triangle-and-two stuff. I bet she’s impressed. She is smiling. Oh man, she so wants me. I definitely have to go gloat over in advertising. Alan's gonna flip when he finds out I'm gonna be hookin' up with (your name). OK, checklist for tonight: Barry White CD, wash my sheets, hide adult DVD’s, class up my fridge by replacing Natty Lite with Miller Lite. Ooh, that’s a good one. Frank, you handsome bastard, you are about to score. Act cool though. Act natural.
You - "Well, that sounds good. Thanks Frank!"
Frank’s, from Accounts Payable, Inner-Monologue - Time to ask her out. She wants you to ask her out. ASK HER OUT DAMMIT. Who asks an NCAA question if they don't want a little Frank-lovin'. And remember three months ago when she asked to borrow white-out? That was a sign! You're destined to be together. White-out! Come on! That's such a hint! Alright, do it. DO IT! Ask her out and don't say anything stupid.
No problemo.
NO PROBLEMO? What is this, 1986? Why didn't you ask her out? You pansy! It's all over for you now. Why don't you just get it over with and propose to J.J. Redick you loser. You blew it again. Way to go.
Alright, now that you've ruined this, try to save some dignity for a later date proposal. Let's walk away like you own the place, you know, save a little face. (Frank runs into a file cabinet, spilling hundreds of papers on the ground.)

Anyway, that’s what’s likely to happen if you ask some guy his opinion on the tournament. He won’t know what he’s talking about and you’ll not only have a new stalker, but terrible brackets.

- Come up with a clever team name for your entry. Anything that involves your last name, mascot of the college you attended, numbers, using a Z instead of an S (i.e. Boyz) or the words “fo shizzle” will not be tolerated.

- Most importantly, ignore everything you’ve just read. This is the only tip you should remember.

Happy bracketing!