NCAA Tournament Predictions

As current NBA player and former Wake Forest star Darius Songaila once said to The Wolfman, "let's cut to chase."
So, without further audieu, here are Chris's Sports Blog predictions for all 63 NCAAA Tournament games.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

1st Round
#1 Illinois vs. #16 Farleigh-Dickinson
The last time Farleigh-Dickinson was in the NCAA Tournament was 2001, when the Knights played eventual-champion Duke in a first round #1/#16 match-up.
Does this mean Illinois is destined to win this National Championship this year? Nah, it just means that the 2001 Farleigh-Dickinson team knows how much of a tool Mike Dunleavy Jr. is first-hand.
Pick: Illinois

#8 Texas vs. #9 Nevada
Virginia is interested in Texas coach Rick Barnes to fill their head coaching vacancy and Barnes, apparently, is interested as well.
If the ‘Hoos are looking for a coach to lead the team back into the NCAA Tournament, then Barnes is a great choice. But if Craig Littlepage wants a coach that can not only lead the team to the Big Dance, but actually win there, he can do a lot better than Barnes and his 11-12 NCAA Tournament record.
Barnes, like his football coaching counterpart at UT, is a great program builder, but never seems to do well in the postseason.
The Longhorns will flame out again early this year, as usual, but unlike in year’s past, this time won’t be entirely Barnes’ fault.
The absences of P.J. Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge (I think more people should have names that begin with La and then lead into a regular name. Think of the possibilities: LaFrank, LaJoey, LaLaVar and, my favorite, LaJamesOn) will cripple Texas against Nick Fazekas and Nevada.
Pick: Nevada

#5 Alabama vs. #12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee
You can include me among the people who were outraged when underage Wisconsin-Milwaukee players celebrated their Horizon League Championship by spraying each other with champagne. I was shocked and appalled. I mean, come on guys. Why were you using champagne when you live in the town that produces the world’s greatest beer, Milwaukee’s Best Ice?
Pick: Alabama

#4 Boston College vs. #13 Pennsylvania
I’ve been steering the BC hatewagon since they burst onto the national scene back in December and flipped on the cruise control during the Eagles 4-4 finish to the season (after a 20-0 start). A few weeks back we zoomed past the busted-up bandwagon for Al Skinner’s team, asked where Troy Bell had disappeared to and then got back in the left lane en route to a 1st round upset. The hatewagon’s plans changed when the selection committee paired the Eagles with Penn, an undersized team that won’t much up well with Craig Smith and company. So, I had to fill up the hatewagon with enough Hatorade to get through Saturday, when BC’s season will end.
Pick: Boston College

#6 LSU vs. #11 Alabama-Birmingham
Every year a team that had a surprising run in the previous NCAA Tournament is predicted to duplicate their postseason success the following season. UAB, a team that advanced to the Elite Eight in 2004, is this year’s repeat-Cinderella candidate, but will most likely follow the leads of other schools that have followed up recent magical Tournament runs with 1st round exits like Valparaiso, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Marquette and Butler.
Pick: LSU

#3 Arizona vs. #14 Utah State
Not even Lute Olson can blow this one… can he?
Pick: Arizona

#7 Southern Illinois vs. #10 St. Mary’s
Last year the Salukis suffered a disappointing first round loss at the buzzer to Alabama. The feel of that loss must have lingered like the smell of burnt popcorn during the offseason, and that alone is enough to put SIU into the second round.
That’s why I’m picking them. Well, that, and I know absolutely nothing about St. Mary’s except that it is the alma mater of ex-NBA’er Brian Shaw and this guy.
Pick: Southern Illinois

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #15 Southeastern Lousiana
I thought Southwest-Central Lousiana had the best season of all Louisiana directional schools, but, as they say, that’s why they play the game.
Pick: Oklahoma State

2nd Round
#1 Illinois vs. #9 Nevada
If this game takes place, it could be a lot close than people will think. (If Texas beats Nevada, Illinois will wipe the floor with them).
Nevada’s defense was the best in the WAC, by far, and the ‘Pack’s frontline of Fazekas and Kevinn “Not a Typo” Pinkney could give James Augustine fits.
But, Illinois is the pick and will deny the Wolfpack a second straight Sweet 16 berth.
Pick: Illinois

#4 Boston College vs. #5 Alabama
Prediciting who will emerge from this Cleveland mini-bracket was surprisingly difficult. Every year there is one four-team section that is tough to project because neither of the two top seeds are all that impressive. Alabama and BC fit that M.O. this year. Both were teams I had pegged as possible first round upset victims before the draw was announced, but when I saw that they were due to play each other in the second, I had to abandon that idea because I don’t want to screw up an entire segment of the region.
So, in these cases it’s best to forego picking an upset and picking a boring old chalk match-up like Alabama-BC (get your TiVos ready).
By the way, I think I’m going to trademark “hatewagon”.
Hey… don’t judge me. If Pat Riley can trademark “three-peat” and Donald Trump can do the same with “your fired”, then there’s a place in American lexicon for “hatewagon”. And if you disagree, maybe you’ll find yourself in a prime seat on my first nationwide hating-tour.
Pick: Alabama

#3 Arizona vs. #6 LSU
LSU’s Glen Davis (whom Peter Angelos will likely trade Miguel Tejada, Sammy Sosa, Javy Lopez and Jorge Julio for) is so big that he’ll make Channing Frye look like Julius Hodge on a hunger strike.
Lute Olsen will once again prove that his 1997 NCAA title was as much of an anomaly as Marisa Tomei’s Oscar win.
Pick: LSU

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Southern Illinois
The Wolfman would like me to tell you that, despite picking Southern Illinois to go to the Elite Eight last year (they lost in the first round), he still finished 100 points ahead of me in our pool.
I would like to tell you that The Wolfman once attended a house party totally naked.
Pick: Oklahoma State

Sweet 16
#1 Illinois vs. #5 Alabama
Question: When’s the last time a team has beat the #1 seed in its region in two straight Tournaments?
Answer: I don’t know, that’s why I’m asking.
Pick: Illinois

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #6 LSU
I’m tempted to pick LSU in this game because I’m actually in love with Tiger freshman Glen Davis. But, since LSU could easily drop in the first round to UAB, I’ll stick with the team I picked last year too. And I’m not actually in love with him.
Well, maybe a little.
Pick: Oklahoma State

Regional Final
#1 Illinois vs. #2 Oklahoma State
Coaches can say all they want about how they take the Tournament “one game at a time”, but you know Bruce Weber and Eddie Sutton have looked ahead to this possible Regional Final. Interestingly, both coaches probably believe that their team will match-up well with their opponent.
Illinois’ Achilles Heel is their frontcourt play. James Augustine is merely competent in the middle; he lacks the strength to establish himself in the post. But, luckily for Illinois, they won’t see a dominating big man in their region, unless LSU advances to the Elite Eight.
OSU isn’t as dependent on its backcourt; senior Joey Graham is big enough to play inside but athletic enough to roam around the perimeter as well. Like Illinois, the Cowboys are vulnerable when they play a big man (Wayne Simien dropped 62 points in two meetings against OSU this season), but are dangerous in a shoot-out, which is exactly what this match-up would be.
I like Oklahoma State in this game for two reasons:
1) Illinois’ three point defense is suspect, meaning John Lucas will have plenty of opportunities to hit shots. I love the way Lucas plays and have a feeling he’s the kind of kid who could put a team on his back Danny Manning-style en route to a title.
2) The lack of competition in the Big Ten will hurt Illinois late in a close game. It’s not just coincidence that ACC teams always preform well in the Tournament. Teams from the conference are battle-tested during the season and have usually been in every game situation by March. Conversely, the few close games Illinois has played this year were caused by the Illini blowing a late lead (vs. Iowa, at Ohio State) or erasing a halftime deficit (at Purdue, at Michigan). They have yet to play in a contest where the game is close for a long stretch of time. Just ask the 1991 UNLV team how different it is playing in a close game when the pressure is high.
Midwest Champion: Oklahoma State

West Region (Albuquerque)

#1 Washington vs. #16 Montana
I wonder if the Unabomber roots for Montana?
Pick: Washington

#8 Pacific vs. #9 Pittsburgh
Pacific starts two Swedish guys named Marko and Jasko. I guess that explains why Abba always kicked Fleetwood Mac’s ass when they played four-on-four.
Pick: Pacific

#5 Georgia Tech vs. #12 George Washington
Q: What was GW’s reward for finishing first in their A-10 division, winning the conference tournament and beating Michigan State and Maryland (before John Gilchrist quit on the team)?
A: Receiving the lowest seed of all 34 at-large teams, getting a #12 seed, which was higher than powerhouses like Northern Iowa (11), Minnesota (8), Iowa (10) and N.C. State (10) got.
Karl Hobbs and his Colonials deserved better, but now will probably face an early exit, thus depriving the nation a chance to fall in love with Pops Mensah-Bonsu. His name is Pops for crap’s sake. Couldn’t we have given GW a #10 in West Virginia’s region and let Pops play on the weekend? Couldn’t we just have given Pops a chance? A chance! That’s all I was lookin’ for!
Pick: Georgia Tech

#4 Louisville vs. #13 Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisville has lost four games all season and received a #4 seed. Kansas has lost five games since Valentine’s Day and earned a #3 seed.
What an injustice. Maybe the selection committee consulted the Robert Blake jury on some of the seedings.
Pick: Louisville

#6 Texas Tech vs. #11 UCLA
There’s an outside chance that I’ll be picking teams coached by Lute Olsen, Bobby Knight and Bob Huggins to all win in the first round.
I expect my brackets to spontaneously burst into flames any second now.
Pick: Texas Tech

#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Winthrop
Any school that sounds like the name of one of the Duke brothers from Trading Places is alright by me.
Pick: Gonzaga

#7 West Virginia vs. #10 Creighton
The Mountaineers won ten straight games to open the season, then lost six of their next seven. They turned it around by winning ten of their last 14 contests, but a late-season loss to Seton Hall hurt WVA’s chances at an at-large berth. It took two Big East Tourney wins to get John Beilein’s team in, and now people are looking at them as a sleeper out of the West.
Not me. I’ve been burned picking Creighton before, but you’ll excuse me if I can’t get excited about a team that depends on a guy named Pittsnogle.
Pick: Creighton

#2 Wake Forest vs. #15 Chattanooga
In his pre-game pep-talk, Mocs coach John Shulman better tell his players that when Chris Paul is around, they should stop and cover their Nooga’s.
Pick: Wake Forest

2nd Round
#1 Washington vs. #8 Pacific
Originally I picked Pacific to win this game; not because I don’t trust the Huskies, but because it’s been so long since I’ve seen any team named “Washington” have any degree of success in the postseason.
Pick: Washington

#4 Louisville vs. #5 Georgia Tech
This will be the most anticipated 2nd round match-up in recent memory.
Louisville is an enigma wrapped in red They finished 29-4 out of Conference USA, including wins in 18 of their last 19 and feature three players (Taquan Dean, Larry O’Bannon and all-world forward Francisco Garcia) who average over 14 points a game.
However, Louisville hasn’t beat any team this season that is currently in the Top 25 (they knocked of Cincinnati and Charlotte, both of whom were ranked when they played, but aren’t now) and wasn’t tested too much in C-USA.
Georgia Tech, after their run in the ACC Tournament, picked up a lot of bandwagon members, but I’m still suspect of the Yellow Jackets.
Luke Schenscher has regressed this season, losing the much-needed aggressiveness he found during last year’s title game run.
Obviously the injuries of B.J. Elder and Jeremis Smith derailed Tech in the middle of the season, but they were at full strength in the ACC’s and looked like the team that started out the season ranked in the AP Top 5.
Jarrett Jack is playing the best basketball of his career (If he didn’t play in a conference with Chris Paul, Raymond Felton and guys on Duke, Jack would be considered one of the best point guards in the country. As it is, he barely made second-team All-ACC), but that wasn’t enough to cover for Will Bynum’s miserable game in the ACC Final.
Tech can’t afford to have Elder or Bynum hit a cold-snap in their second round match-up, or else they’ll be returning to Atlanta a lot earlier than last season.
Pick: Louisville

#3 Gonzaga vs. #6 Texas Tech
Bob Knight has said he detests playing games at high altitudes because it gives some teams an unfair advantage.
Luckily for Knight, his Red Raiders won’t have to worry about the thin air of Albuquerque.
Pick: Gonzaga

#2 Wake Forest vs. #10 Creighton
Chris Paul won’t let Skip Prosser blow this one.
Pick: Wake Forest

Sweet 16
#1 Washington vs. #4 Louisville
I, along with the rest of the free world, also have Washington losing in the Sweet 16. But this could be a St. Joe’s situation where the Huskies defy low expectations and make a solid run into the Elite Eight.
Pick: Louisville

#2 Wake Forest vs. #3 Gonzaga
Whichever coach loses this game will begin to hear whispers of “can’t win in March”. When I close my eyes and picture the outcome of this game, it’s tough to imagine Wake Forest winning. After all, they lost last year in the Sweet 16 to a mid-major dynamo.
The focus will be on the guards in this game – Derek Ralvio vs. Chris Paul, but the battle inside (Ronny Turiaf vs. Eric Williams) will decide the game.
I’ll pick Wake, but with caution.
Pick: Wake Forest

Regional Final
#2 Wake Forest vs. #4 Louisville
If this game ends up happening, I’d probably pick Louisville. But since the Cardinals could easily go down to Georgia Tech in the second round, I’ll stick with my Deacs to represent the Westside in the Final Four.
West Champion: Wake Forest

East Region (Syracuse)

#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Oakland
Billy Beane is good, but he’s not that good.
Pick: North Carolina

#8 Minnesota vs. #9 Iowa State
Even Bill Raftery would have a hard time getting up for this enthralling contest.
Pick: Iowa State

#5 Villanova vs. #12 New Mexico
Every one of New Mexico’s starters average ten or more points a game, led by super-forward Danny Granger who’s as good on the defensive end as he is on the offensive.
But, the Lobo five won’t be enough to handle Randy Foye, Curtis Sumpter and Allan Ray, who can shoot teams out of the building (just ask Kansas).
Excluding a 15-point loss to Syracuse back in February, Nova’s other six losses are by a total of 17 points.
Pick: Villanova

#4 Florida vs. #13 Ohio
W’s two favorite states go head-to-head in the Battleground Showdown. CBS will call the game for Ohio midway through the second half, but will then retract their projection after a furious Gator rally narrows the gap. A premature concession speech by Bobcats coach Tim O’Shea will cause CBS to name Florida the winner sometime early Saturday morning, but after 24 hours of legal wrangling, it will take a Sunday vote by Sportscenter’s ‘Fact or Fiction’ panelists to determine, once and for all, the game’s final victor.
Pick: Florida

#6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Northern Iowa
Is anybody else surprised that the dude on Wisconsin who looks like he tried out for The Beatles is still in college? I could have sworn he was on the team when Wisconsin went to the Final Four back in 2000. That guy is like a midwestern version of Jason Kapono.
Pick: Northern Iowa

#3 Kansas vs. #14 Bucknell
Don’t be shocked if Bucknell springs the upset.
I’m serious.
Pick: Kansas

#7 Charlotte vs. #10 North Carolina State
Bobby Lutz’s ‘70s porn-star mustache hasn’t helped the 49ers in recent Tournaments, but maybe his previous experience makes him uniquely qualified to give Julius Hodge tips on how to ice his boys after receiving a direct crotch-punch.
Pick: North Carolina State

#2 Connecticut vs. #15 Central Florida
Not even Daunte Culpepper could help the Golden Knights in this one.
Pick: Connecticut

2nd Round
#1 North Carolina vs. #9 Iowa State
It’s 12:05 on Thursday and I’m filling in all the gaps here. Bear with me.
Pick: North Carolina

#4 Florida vs. #5 Villanova
You have to like a team that features Yannick Noah’s son, but I can’t get on-board with the Gators mainly because UF has lost to lower seeded teams in each of the four tournaments since their 2000 National Championship apperance.
Pick: Villanova

#3 Kansas vs. #11 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa took eventual runner-up Georgia Tech to the wire in last year’s first-round. But two straight upsets is a little much to hope for this season.
Pick: Kansas

#2 Connecticut vs. #7 Charlotte
The key to Uconn’s run will be the effectiveness of guard Rashad Anderson, who missed seven games late in the season with a skin abscess on his leg.
Anderson returned for the Big East Tournament, whereupon his Huskies were promptly run out of the Garden by Syracuse.
Charlotte shouldn’t give Connecticut any problems, but if the Huskies struggle here, it could be a harbinger of things to come.
Pick: Connecticut

Sweet 16
#1 North Carolina vs. #5 Villanova
Here’s why I don’t think UNC is a shoo-in for the Final Four:
1) Raymond Felton struggles in games where he’s defended by a quick point guard.
2) UNC forgets about Sean May for large stretches of time.
3) Rashad McCants is a headcase.
4) Roy Williams is one or two heartbreaking losses from getting to Lucci/Mickelson status. And who doesn’t want to see that?
Pick: North Carolina

#2 Connecticut vs. #3 Kansas
Kansas hasn’t been ranked behind Uconn in a single AP poll this season. So don’t call this an upset.
Pick: Kansas

Regional Final
#1 North Carolina vs. #3 Kansas
The one thing that UNC would have going for it in this game is that there would only be 48 hours of hype before tip-off, which is good for Roy Williams because if he had to think about this game for a week, he’d be liable to go McCants on his team.
The Roy Williams against his old team story-line would dominate the pre-game headlines, but UNC-Kansas would also feature two of college basketballs’ three winningest programs and a front-line match-up for the ages in Sean May vs. Wayne Simien.
Despite all the hype, the Tar Heels have not performed well in big games this season, losing in their only meeting against Wake Forest and twice struggling mightily against an inferior Duke team. A regional final match-up against their coaches old team is about as big as it gets, and I don’t think UNC has the mental toughness to withstand the heat.
They might be the most talented team in the country, but the last time the most talented team won the title was back in 2002.
East Champion: Kansas

South Region (Austin)

#1 Duke vs. #16 Delaware State
How much money would you pay to see a Delaware State win? Realistically, I think I’d pay $800 for such a pleasure. And I’d throw in $200 more to see J.J. Redick cry himself to sleep in Lee Melchionni’s arms.
Pick: Duke

#8 Stanford vs. #9 Mississippi State
Normally this is where I rip on Mike Montgomery and his poor Tournament coaching performances, but Montgomery’s not with Stanford anymore so I’ll just rip on his decision-making ability (Golden State? Not even Tony Bennent would decide to coach them) and ability (it looks like the old adage is true: Overrated in college, overpaid in the pros).
Pick: Mississippi State

#5 Michigan State vs. #12 Old Dominion
Even though I knew Manhattan would beat Florida last year, I jumped off that upset-train because it was the trendy pick, and if you’ve read this blog for any amount of time, you know I hate trends just as much as I hate guys named J.J.
ODU is the trendy upset pick this time, and I’m going to pick it, even though MSU always seems to do well in the Tournament.
Pick: Old Dominion

#4 Syracuse vs. #13 Vermont
Of all the poor seedings (Washington, Louisville, George Washington), Vermont’s is the most despicable. All the Catamounts did was everything they could in order to impress the selection committee this year.
They traveled to Kansas (where they almost won) and North Carolina, went 16-2 in their conference and won their conference tournament. They had an RPI of 21 and finished 4-3 against the RPI Top 50.
Essentially, Vermont did everything that was asked of them this season, and more, and was given a pitiful #13 seed for their trouble.
Way to go NCAA, that’s a great message to send to small-major teams from one-bid conferences: No matter what you do, who you play and how many wins you get, you can’t get any higher than a #13 seed. Iowa can lose 11 games and still grab a #10. UAB can go 0-5 against the Top 50 and snag an #11. But one-bid conferences are a disgrace to the NCAA and don’t deserve to be in the Tournament, so we’re going to spit on Vermont’s season and disgrace them and the America East conference and all other one-bid leagues by awarding a very good team with a very bad seed.
Shame on you.
Vermont should be a #9 or #10 seed and have the opportunity to win a first round game. They still could, but Hakim Warrick will likely be too much for Taylor Coppenrath and company.
Pick: Syracuse

#6 Utah vs. #11 UTEP
Bogut, me and the Three Tenors could win this game.
Pick: Utah

#3 Oklahoma vs. #14 Niagra
I wonder if Calvin Murhpy will be in attendance. If he is, I hope he reserved an entire section of seats so he can bring all his illegitimate children to watch Niagra’s first NCAA appearance since Murphy himself led them to the dance in 1970.
Pick: Oklahoma

#7 Cincinnati vs. #10 Iowa
What a quandry. Do I pick a Bob Huggins team in March (which is like picking an Ashton Kutche movie on Oscar night) or take an Iowa team that has lost its best player and is now forced to start five guys from Iowa.
This goes against all my Tournament tenets, but here goes:
Pick: Cincinnati

#2 Kentucky vs. #15 Eastern Kentucky
For some reason this game, and not Pacific/Pittsburgh will be the first Tournament game broadcast in the D.C. area. I guess somebody at WUSA has a little crush on a certain Kelenna Azubuike.
Pick: Kentucky

2nd Round
#1 Duke vs. #9 Mississippi State
I like how Shavlik Randolph went from being a McDonald’s All-American in high school to being proof that Coach K is an amazing coach because he can win with a stiff like Randolph in the lineup.
Pick: Duke

#4 Syracuse vs. #12 Old Dominion
They might not beat Syracuse, but I love their root beer.
Pick: Syracuse

#3 Oklahoma vs. #6 Utah
The Sooners rely on Kevin Bookout and Taj Gray for a bulk of their scoring, but with Andrew Bogut clogging up the middle, Oklahoma will have to find points for other sources.
It won’t happen.
Pick: Utah

#2 Kentucky vs. #7 Cincinnati
The next step for Bob Huggins is getting a DUI whilst dressed Alex P. Keaton.
Pick: Kentucky

Sweet 16
#1 Duke vs. #4 Syracuse
Hakim Warrick and Craig Forth will occupy Shelden Williams, and a cold J.J. Redick will shoot his way out of the Tournament.
Pick: Syracuse

#2 Kentucky vs. #6 Utah
Kentucky struggled against LSU’s big men in the SEC Tournament, mainly due to their inability to switch out of their man-to-man coverage.
The Wildcats won’t be able to contain Bogut, who will lead the Utes to their first Regional Final since 1998, when they went to the Championship Game.
Pick: Utah

Regional Final
#4 Syracuse vs. #6 Utah
Every year in Tony Kornheiser’s NCAA Tournament preview, Jim Boeheim predicts the winners, and does am amazing job, usually getting it right. This year he hedged a bit when predicting who would come out of the South, which is good enough for me.
(In 2003, when Syracuse won, Boeheim didn’t make a pick for the first time in 20 years.)
South Winner: Syracuse

Final Four

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #2 Wake Forest
The Deacs haven’t been in the Final Four since 1962. Just like Maryland in 2001, they’ll get out to an early lead in this one, struggle late and spend an offseason wondering what might have been.
Then, Chris Paul will return for his junior season and the Deacs will cut down the nets next April in Indianapolis.
Pick: Oklahoma State

#1 North Carolina vs. #4 Syracuse
In some pools I have Kansas in this game instead of UNC, but either way, whoever comes out of the East will beat Syracuse and advance to the National Championship game.
Pick: North Carolina

2005 National Championship
#1 North Carolina vs. #2 Oklahoma State
In a battle of “close but no cigar” coaches, Sutton, on the strength of a sublime effort from John Lucas III, wins his first title over Roy Williams and the Tar Heels.
National Champion: Oklahoma State