2005 National League Preview

NL East

1) Atlanta Braves
2) Florida Marlins
3) Philadelphia Phillies
4) Washington Nationals
5) New York Mets
You’re probably surprised to see that I have the Mets in last, but I’ll get to that in a split.
At the top of the NL East, in a shocker, are the Atlanta Braves - a team that I have vowed never to pick against again until they’re knocked off their perch. It’s 13 years and counting for Bobby Cox’s squad and this year they figure to be the best they’ve been in a while thanks to their signing of ace Tim Hudson.
The Braves are kind of like the bad guy in Terminator 2; they can’t be killed no matter how hard you try. Last season they had no business winning the East, but because the Marlins started slow, the Expos played 103 road games and Larry Bowa exists, they did and forced on America another boring Divisional Series played in front of a three-quarters filled Turner Field.
Nothing can stop Atlanta; not Dontrelle-Mania or a new stadium in Philly or having a guy who once played with Steve Carlton on their roster (Julio Franco). Not even moving the second best closer in the game back into the starting lineup will be enough to ruin the Braves this year. Somehow, they’ll persevere. Oh, they might start slow, which will inevitably lead to dozens of stories about whether or not this is the year the Braves finally lose, but once the dog-days of August hit, the Braves will quietly seize the NL East lead from the fading, tired Marlins – a young team, but one that will melt away in the heat of Miami’s summers – and the underachieving Phillies.
It’s been said that the NL East is the best division in baseball. If we’re talking about top to bottom, I’ll agree. Even the team that most pundits are predicting to finish in last, the brand, spanking-new Washington Nationals, isn’t that bad.
The first D.C. team in 34 years inherited a decent roster from Montreal, one that struggled last year, which was understandable considering they had to play some home games in Puerto Rico and the rest in an empty stadium with zero fan support.
The Nats boast a solid, if unspectacular, pitching staff that could be good if they stay healthy (which, they are not: Tony Armas, Jr. began the season on the 15 Day DL). Unlike The Wolfman, the Nats had trouble scoring last year, ranking near the bottom of the NL in the category.
The additions of Vinny Castilla (don’t be fooled by the fact he played for the Rockies – his road numbers were pretty solid too), Jose Guillen and a healthy Nick Johnson should give the Nats offense more pop, and likely give Brad Wilkerson a chance for more RBI opportunities (Wilkerson had 32 homers and scored 112 runs last year, but only drove in 67).
Washington’s lame-duck GM Jim Bowden did well bringing in those players, but signing former Twins shortstop Christian Guzman to a 4 year, $16 million deal was perhaps the worst signing of the off-season. Guzman is a fine fielder, but his bat makes Bob Uecker look like Johnny Bench. For some reason Frank Robinson has Guzman and his stellar .309 OBP batting second (behind Wilkerson – don’t get me started), but it’s difficult to imagine ol’ Frank keeping it that way for too long.
The team has little depth, so injuries could cripple their season, but with the Nats free agent acquisitions, 81 home games in a packed stadium filled with baseball-craving fans and a surprisingly solid rotation, Washington could hover around .500 and will likely prove the naysayers, who are predicting doom for the team’s first year, wrong.
Now what about those Mets?
They’ve been predicted to finish anywhere from first to fourth in this division (usually second or third though), but I’ve yet to see anybody put them in the cellar (a place they have finished in two of the past three years).
Yes, I know Omar Minaya is a genius – I read the New York Times Magazine article too – and how the pick-ups of Pedro and Carlos Beltran will invigorate Shea Stadium and make the Mets relevant again, but I’m not seeing how those two acquisitions are going to make a 71-win team that much better particularly with Al Leiter gone and Brandon Looper still the only option in the bullpen.
Pedro is still a great pitcher, but don’t forget that his ERA jumped 75% from 2003 to 2004, not a great thing to have happen, especially in a contract year. The jheri-curled one still has the ability to get people out (as evidenced by his 12 K opening day performance), but he’s not the dominating pitcher he once was. His season-fragility is a myth (he’s made 29 or more starts in every year but one since 1995), but his inability to go deep into games is not. Pedro only threw more than seven innings four times last year. Even when Pedro is “on” like he was in Game 3 of the World Series, he’s still not “on” like he once was. His fastball has lost velocity, the change-up isn’t as baffling (and is now his “out” pitch) and anytime his pitch count hits triple digits, it’s time to take him out.
In short: Pedro isn’t the dominating pitcher he once was, and even if he does show flashes of the Pedro of old, there’s two things working against the Mets:
1) He’s only on the mound every fifth day just like Tom Glavine, Kris Benson and Victor “BB” Zambrano. Kris Benson? And you thought they overpaid for Pedro!
2) The bullpen is weak, and since Pedro can’t finish what he starts, they’ll be in every game he pitches. That Omar Minaya spent hundreds of millions in the off-season but went into spring training with Brandon Looper as his closer is utterly inexplicable.
Someone who is on the field every day is Carlos Beltran.
First, let me say that Beltran is a great, great player. He’s a guy the scouts drool over and would call a “five-tool guy” (kind of like Duke is a “five-tool team”). He’s fast, has a great arm, can cover the field and is a solid hitter. That being said, however, Beltran still isn’t in the class of a Bonds, Pujols, Ramirez, Ortiz, Beltre or Rolen.
Beltran’s batting average and OBP are too low (.267 and .367 last year, respectively), he swings at too many bad pitches, especially in key situations (leading to a lot of strikeouts) and, keeping with the low OBP motif, he doesn’t walk enough.
Granted, Beltran showed more patience at the plate last year, but sacrificed contact for power – which is fine by me, as long as he gets on-base enough, which he does not, so it’s not fine by me… or something like that.
Understand that picking-on Beltran’s hitting weaknesses is like doing the same with Donovan McNabb’s passing weaknesses. Both are excellent at what they do, but would help their team a lot more if they could fix some of their glaring problems.
Beltran is clearly an upgrade for the Mets, but how much he’ll help a team that has some washed-up veterans (Mike Cameron, Cliff Floyd) and young-guys with great potential (David Wright, Jose Reyes) remains to be seen. Remember, for as great as he was, Beltran only lead Kansas City to a winning record once in his five seasons there.

NL Central

1) St. Louis Cardinals
2) Chicago Cubs
3) Houston Astros
4) Pittsburgh Pirates
5) Cincinnati Reds
6) Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis will pick up right where they left off last season and should cruise in the pitiful Central.
The Cubs head into the season as a question mark, which is probably better for them than the way they entered last season as favorites.
Injuries continue to plague Chicago, Mark Prior began the season on the DL, while Kerry Wood is battling bursitis in his shoulder. Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux will be left to hold down the fort until the aces return, which is a lot better than most teams would do if their top two starters were hurt. Zambrano gets kind of lost in the Cubs pitching shuffle, what with a former #1 pick, a flamethrower that once struck out 20 in a game and, oh, a future Hall of Famer on the roster, but he is a good pitcher in his own right. If the whole rotation is healthy (a big if), then the Cubs could challenge the Cards for the division title.
Dusty Baker will miss Moises Alou’s bat (and Sammy Sosa’s affinity for meaningless solo homeruns), but Nomar Garciaparra is due for a monster season and should see some good pitches with Aramis Ramirez behind him in the order.
I’ve never heard of four guys on Houston’s opening day lineup (Jason Lane, Willy Taveras, Chris Burke and Mitchell Friedman. Mitchell Friedman?) and that can’t bode well for the team that was a few outs away from the World Series last October.
The pitching staff will keep Houston respectable, but until Lance Berkman returns, look for another cold Astro start to the season.
All those that care about the Pirates, Reds and Brewers, I heard ESPN.com did a good preview on them.

NL West

1) San Diego Padres
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) San Francisco Giants
4) Arizona Diamondbacks
5) Colorado Rockies
I’ll pick the Padres to win the West for the second straight season, which I guess kind of makes me like that guy that sits at the roulette wheel, plays black, loses and then keeps playing black because “it’s bound to happen at some point” but it doesn’t and he eventually loses his house, kids college savings and the fake Rolex he brought from a West African deep in the bowels of the 49th Street Subway Station in New York.
Call me crazy, but I can’t pick against a team that has a white guy who sounds black (Khalil Greene), a guy named Woody, a former Little League World Series star and the man with the best stolen base in baseball history. Plus, both The Wolfman and Scotty (the guy who jumped off a second-story balcony with an umbrella and jammed his vertebrae because he wanted to prove that what Mary Poppins did was indeed possible. So confident was he that he didn’t even bend his knees to break his fall, hence the jammed backbone) live in San Diego and can catch Padres games whenever they want, and those two would be a better good luck charm than Pedro’s little friend was for the BoSox last season.
The Dodgers won the West last year, but I can’t trust any team that has Derek Lowe as its #1 starter. I’ve seen that movie before and it was called “You Got Served (With A Slider That You’ll Hit Out of the Park)”.
The Giants are tough to call because it’s anybody’s guess how long Barry Bonds will be out. When he does return he’ll have protection in the order (thanks to Moises Alou) for the first time since Jeff Kent left the team.
Arizona will score more runs than last year (assuming Troy Glaus can stay healthy), but their pitching staff is still suspect (although Javier Vazquez will regain his pitching mojo in the desert).
And the Rockies? Well, if things start slowly, they can just hire George Karl to be their manager.

National League Divisional Series
St. Louis Cardinals over San Diego Padres
Atlanta Braves over Chicago Cubs

National League Championship Series
Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals

World Series
Boston Red Sox over Atlanta Braves

I didn’t want to pick the Red Sox to even make it to the World Series, but I’m not sold on the Twins and I think the Yankees are due for another meltdown. Oh man, that would be sweet; much like watching A. Rod and his Blade Runner sunglasses botch a possible game-ending double play ball yesterday afternoon and seeing Derek Jeter get knocked in the noggin with a Mike Timlin fastball. And J. Rod and all you other Yankees fans out there, don’t bother writing the e-mail where you chastise me for enjoying the sight of Derek Jeter getting hit in the head. I’m just going to delete it anyway.
On the National League side, I picked the Cubs to win the Wild Card just to aggravate the The Wolfman (and because their staff, when healthy, is amazing like Dan Dickau).
St. Louis and Atlanta will go to seven in the NLCS and Tim Hudson will out-duel his friend and former teammate Mark Mulder in the decisive game.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Derek Lowe Tim Hudson
NL Rookie of the Year: Still Don’t Care
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy
NL Batting Champion: Albert Pujols
NL Homerun Champion: Albert Pujols (but not RBI)
NL Least Valuable: Shawn Green
NL Cy Yuk: Kris Benson

Due to popular demand (ie, two guys and my mom), I finally figured out how to set up the blog so you all can leave comments. During the 45 minutes it took me to do this (it should have taken about 45 seconds I later realized), it occurred to me that all I was doing was making it easier for people to insult me. But, I did it anyway because I care too damn much about you, the reader(s?) of Chris's Sports Blog.
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