Chris's Sports Blog 2005-2006 NCAA Basketball Preview

ACC Predictions

1) Duke
For the sixth time in school history, Duke is ranked #1 in the AP preseason poll. Only once in those six seasons, however, has Duke ended up winning the National Championship. Can the Blue Devils reverse history and put Coach K alongside John Wooden and Adolph Rupp as the only coaches with four NCAA titles to their credit?
We’ll get to that below, but as far as the ACC goes, Duke winning the regular season title is as sure a thing as the inevitable emotional SportsCenter feature in February on J.J. Redick’s tough time dealing with mean ACC fans complete with touching music, soft lighting, excessive backne and a few tears. Jeez, man up, for crap’s sake.
The only knock on Duke is their depth, which was a problem last season too. Many say that Coach K’s stellar recruiting class should stem this tide, but those people tend to forget that for every Jason Williams and Luol Deng Duke recruits, there are a whole bunch of Shavlik Randolph’s and Sean Dockery’s mixed in too. (Lest you forget, Sean Dockery was one of the highest-rated guards in his recruiting class; Coach K chose him over Jarrett Jack.) At least one of the Blue Devils vaunted class (Greg Paulas, Josh McRoberts, Martynas Pocius, Jamal Boykin and Eric Boateng) figures to be an unqualified bust, and a few others won’t immediately contribute as freshman. With the aforementioned Dockery and Lee Melchionni as the only seasoned players coming off the bench, Duke could have problems late in the season. (By the way, have you noticed how white Duke’s team is this year? If they can put it all together, the Blue Devils might have a real shot of knocking off Texas Western in the 1966 NCAA Championship.)
Of course, Duke complaining about depth is like a rich man fretting over which summer home to visit on vacation; it’s important to keep perspective on these things.
Duke has the best coach in the country leading the best talent in the country. I’m fond of saying, “I kid cause I care.” In Duke’s case, “I kid because I hate… And because they’re a bunch of stuck-up punks who get overinflated grades and have an unhealthy sense of self-worth.” But, headed into the season, they are the best team in the country. And no amount of hatred can possibly change that. (Don’t worry, I’ve tried.)

2) Maryland
Have you ever been to a bar where there’s a really big, drunk guy trying to pick fights with everyone? You and your friends try to ignore him and have a good time, but he’s being so disruptive that you can’t take your eyes off him? There’s always a nervous energy in a place like that, almost like everyone’s afraid to do or say anything for fear of setting the drunk guy off. Inevitably that guy takes it a notch too far and gets escorted out by four bouncers, after which everyone in the bar breathes a sigh of relief, exchanges stories about their respective run-ins with him and resumes their good time.
In case you were wondering where I was going with that; John Gilchrist was the drunk guy and this year the Maryland team is breathing a sigh of relief now that he’s gone.
Don’t underestimate the importance of a cancer like Gilchrist bolting College Park for the pros (only to go hilariously, and predictably, undrafted). With him around, Maryland was unable to get into a groove and develop any chemistry last season, which resulted in the Terps first absence from the NCAA Tournament since 1993. I imagine the team would walk on pins and needles during practice for fear of upsetting Gilchrist. Gary Williams had to handle the entire team differently because of his point guard too.
Some people scoff at the suggestion of “team chemistry”. They should try practicing on a team where the point guard and coach despise each other and where said point guard has one foot out the door in hopes of a big NBA payday. It’s crippling to a team, particularly a young one like Maryland.
This year, the Terps will be underdogs, a role Gary Williams relishes. He’ll no doubt be pointing out that the media believes Wake Forest and N.C. State, each missing key components of last year’s Tournament teams, will finish ahead of them. And last year’s NIT berth will certainly be brought up every day in practice.
For the Terps, 2005-06 is all about addition by subtraction. Except for experience, the Terps have gained little from last season, other than Gilchrist’s absence. That alone makes the team a viable Tournament candidate. The return of defensive stalwart D.J. Strawberry puts them in the upper-echelon of the ACC. And another year of maturity and seasoning for Ekene Ibekwe and James Gist should give the Terps a formidable frontcourt which could vault them ahead of media darling Boston College.
The jury is still out on new point guard Sterling Ledbetter, but he can’t be any worse than Gilchrist was last season. Maryland showed flashes of brilliance in 2005, beating Duke twice. But their inconsistency killed them (ie, three losses to Clemson). The Terps have something to prove this year, particularly seniors Nik Caner-Medley, Chris McCray and Travis Garrison, who arrived in College Park the year after the Terps won their first National Championship, yet have failed to win more than two games in a single NCAA Tournament since.

3) Boston College
This is an ACC preview, not a Big East one.

4) Wake Forest
Scotty, I’m sad to say, I think our Deacs are a bit overrated this season. The loss of Chris Paul will get all the attention, but Wake will arguably miss the contributions of Taron Downey, Jamaal Levy and Vytas Danelius just as much. Downey was the most underrated player in the ACC last year and one of the most valuable sixth-men in the nation. Levy and Danelius battled inconsistency during their Wake careers, but they both gave Wake an inside presence and took some of the pressure off the easily-flustered Eric Williams.
Without them, the maddeningly inconsistent Trent Strickland, along with Kyle Visser, Chris Ellis and the slew of Skip Prosser recruits will have to play major minutes. Word out of Winston is that Strickland and Visser have made vast improvements to their game in the off-season and, if true, that will be a big boon to the Deacs. Of course, every year we heard that Prosser has made a commitment to defense in the off-season then once play begins Wake is playing D like the Mavericks.
In his four years at the helm, Prosser has been a top-notch recruiter (Chris Paul, Justin Gray and Eric Williams all hail from North Carolina, and to steal the trio of McDonald’s All-Americans away from UNC was considered a recruiting coup) and manages to get things done in the regular season (during his tenure Prosser’s Deacs have the second best ACC record behind Duke), but come Tournament time, Wake tenses up. They’ve only made it out of the first weekend of the NCAA’s once under Prosser, and last year gave up 111 points in double-overtime to West Virginia when many predicted the Deacs to make the Final Four.
Prosser teams are known for their lack of defensive skills and that figures to be only worse this season. Chris Paul was one of the best on-ball defenders in the NCAA last season, and his pressure forced a lot of turnovers inside. Without Paul harassing a ball-handler (or jamming him in the goods), opposing teams figure to work the ball inside more. Eric Williams managed to stay out of foul trouble most of last year; whether that was because of Paul’s presence has yet to be determined. He needs to stay on the floor this year if the Deacs are going to have a change to win. Trent Strickland is an abysmal defender, and with him on the court, Wake’s defense figures to be even more of a liability this season.
Maybe I’m underrating the Deacs a bit this season just to lower my expectations and future disappointment, but with their poor defense and Prosser calling the shots, I’m skeptical of the preseason accolades Wake is getting.
Two things I’m not worried about: 1) Justin Gray running the point. Last year the ACC had three point guards taken among the first 22 players in the NBA Draft. This year the cupboard is bare. Starting at point guard this season, the contenders either have underclassman (Duke’s Greg Paulas and UNC’s Quentin Thomas), inexperienced transfers (Maryland’s Leadbetter and State’s Tony Bethel) or Louis Hinnant. Needless to say, there is a big drop-off in talent. Gray played the “1” a bit as a freshman when Taron Downey got hurt and was adequate, but not spectacular. That’s all he needs to be this season. Nobody expects him to be Chris Paul. As long as Gray can get the ball into Eric Williams and move well enough without the rock to create his own shot, he should be fine. Gray should be OK handling the ball, but guys like Strickland and Williams are notoriously turnover-happy. With three freshman likely to see major minutes, turnovers could be a big issue.
2) The schedule. Under Prosser Wake has always played a notoriously tough non-conference schedule (remember their trip to Champaign last year where they entered the game as #1 and left with their tail between their legs?), This year is no different, but with many of the games in Winston-Salem, it shouldn’t be as bad.
Wake faces Wisconsin, DePaul, Princeton and Charlotte at Lawrence Joel. Their toughest non-conference road game is at Richmond (a dangerous lose-lose Christmas-week game), but the Deacs should head to Madison Square Garden next week (if they can knock off a feisty George Mason team tonight) next week in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic to face a tough lineup which could include Texas Tech, Florida and Syracuse.
The Deacs should hover around the Top 25 all season and make the NCAA’s as a mid-range seed.

5) Miami
See preview for Boston College.

6) N.C. State
How is Ilian Evtimov still in college? Just like Julius Hodge before him, I swear Evtimov was playing at State when Jim Valvano was coaching. Maybe Herb Sendek is some sort of super-genius that manages to get six years of eligibility out of each player. I half-expected to see Marcus Melvin on the Wolfpack roster too.
Before Hodge came to Raleigh, State hadn’t made an NCAA Tournament since 1991. With him, they went to four straight and gave the perennially hot-seated Herb Sendek some much-needed job security. With Hodge being thin in the NBA, the Pack need to prove they can win without him.
Their roster is fairly impressive; Evtimov and Engin Atsur are two tough-nosed, defensive-minded Europeans, Georgetown transfer Tony Bethel is a solid scoring guard (with suspect passing abilities), Andrew Brackman had his non-gay coming-out party in the ACC Tournament and fellow sophomore Gavin Grant seemed poised for a breakthrough before his run-in with immigration law. (Good to know Customs Enforcement is cracking down on basketball-playing Jamaicans who have lived in the country since age 9. Combined with the arrest of public-menace Tommy Chong a few years back, I feel much safer as an American.)

7) North Carolina
Two facts:
1) Roy Williams is a great coach.
2) UNC had a fantastic recruiting class.
These two factors should keep UNC afloat in the ACC and will keep them competitive in whatever ridiculously-named new division they’re in. Tyler Hansbrough is one of the top recruits in the country and Marcus Ginyard has played well, despite a broken wrist.

8) Virginia Tech
Seriously, don’t even get me started.

9) Georgia Tech
Tech’s five probable starters averaged a combined 17.3 points per game last season, four fewer than J.J. Redick.
(Since they’re a contender, I should probably write a little about B.C. even if they aren’t a real ACC team: The Eagles got off to a fast start last season, staying undefeated until early February. But they faltered down the stretch, finishing 5-5, including a second-round loss to 12th seeded Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the NCAA Tournament.
The media picked BC second in the ACC, based mainly on their two talented forwards Craig Smith and Jared Dudley. Smith instantly becomes one of the best players in the ACC and Dudley isn’t far behind.
I’m not high on the Eagles for two reasons. First, unlike Miami and Virginia Tech, BC won’t surprise anyone in their first ACC season. Teams like Duke, Wake and Maryland will be gunning for Boston College to try to prove true ACC supremacy.
Second, don’t underestimate the road trips BC will have to make to ACC country. The closest ACC school to Boston is 385 miles away. For the Eagles trip to Miami they’ll have to fly over 1,200 miles. That might not seem like much, but consider that North Carolina’s Big Four take buses to play each other and can leave in the morning for road games. Even Maryland, previously the ACC team furthest north, only has a 45-minute flight to Tobacco Road. Of course, the long road trip is also true for teams traveling to Boston, but teams only have to do that once. BC will be traveling long distances all season and by March, it could take its toll.
Sophomore forward Sean Williams is the x-factor. He should return to Boston for the spring semester after getting kicked out of school for the summer and fall following his arrest on drug and alcohol charges. With a rap sheet like that, maybe Williams should try out for the Virginia Tech football team.

10) Clemson
Vernon Hamilton and Shawan Robinson actually form a pretty solid backcourt for Oliver Purnell’s team, but it won’t be enough to get the Tigers into the upper-half of the ACC.

11) Virginia
DePaul’s Dave Leitao takes over for Pete Gillen and brings a defensive-minded approach that is sorely needed in Charlottesville. Cavs fans hope Leitao also has no tolerance for the knucklehead players that Gillen always seemed to recruit (I wonder what Keith Jenifer is doing today – I just Googled him; he apparently plays for Murray State).
Sean Singletary had a solid freshman season and should show vast improvement as a sophomore. J.R. Reynolds and Gary Forbes, both of whom averaged more than nine points last year, return as juniors.
It will likely take Leitao a season or three to turn UVA into a Tournament team (can you believe the Hoos haven’t been to a Tourney since 2001), but he was the right hire and should turn this team around sooner rather than later.

12) Florida State
FSU is 1-23 in ACC road games over the past three seasons. Ouch.

All-ACC First-Team
G – Justin Gray, Wake Forest
G – J.J. Redick, Duke
F – Guillermo Diaz, Miami
F – Craig Smith, Boston College
C – Shelden Williams, Duke

All-ACC Second-Team
G – Robert Hite, Miami
G – Chris McCray, Maryland
F – Josh McRoberts, Duke
F – Jared Dudley, Boston College
C – Eric Williams, Wake Forest

All-ACC Third Team
G – Sean Singletary, Virginia
G – Zabian Dowdell, Virginia Tech
F – Nik Caner-Medley, Maryland
F – Sean Williams, Boston College
C – Andrew Brackman, N.C. State

ACC Player of the Year
Guillermo Diaz, Miami

ACC Rookie of the Year
Josh McRoberts, Duke

ACC Coach of the Year
Gary Williams, Maryland

Chris’s Sports Blog Preseason Top 25

1) Duke
2) Villanova
3) Michigan State
4) Gonzaga
5) Kentucky
Duke has the most talent in the country and anyone who says otherwise is just being contrary for the sake of being contrary. This doesn’t mean they’ll win the National Championship, but they should be #1, or close to it, up until Tournament time.
Curtis Sumpter’s injury hurts Villanova, but it’s important to remember Sumpter didn’t play against UNC in the NCAA Tournament when the Wildcats were a blown call away from knocking off the eventual champs. If Jason Fraser can stay healthy (a big if), Sumpter’s absence will be minimized.
Allan Ray and Randy Foye form the best backcourt in the country, and with the talent level at guard way down after peaking last season, that will be crucial come Tournament time.
Tom Izzo’s Michigan State team is the class of the Big Ten and always plays well in March.

6) Texas
7) Louisville
8) Connecticut
9) Indiana
10) Oklahoma
The two most heralded Big 12 teams this season, Texas and Oklahoma, are lower on my rankings than most places for two reasons: Rick Barnes and Kelvin Sampson.
Louisville, in their first season in the revamped Big East, should contend for the conference, while Indiana should surprise some people in a relatively weak Big Ten the year before their much-anticipated 2006 recruiting class arrives in Bloomington.
Connecticut will battle with Villanova for the Big East title behind Rudy Gay and Rashad Anderson, assuming no more Huskies decide to help themselves to any more computer equipment.

11) Georgetown
12) Maryland
13) Boston College
14) Texas Tech
15) George Washington
This five-some has some local flavor to it as Georgetown, Maryland and GW are all within a 10-mile stretch of each other. The last time all three of those teams made the NCAA Tournament in the same year was 1994. They should do it again in 2005.
Georgetown super-sophomore Jeff Green, taking a break as Larry David’s agent on Curb Your Enthusiasm, is getting far less publicity than fellow soph Rudy Gay, yet Green and Gay shared Big East Rookie of the Year honors last season. Gay is the real deal (and will likely be a top-three pick next June), but, for some reason, Green gets slept on more than Tara Reid. Along with Brandon Bowman, Green is part of a formidable Hoya frontcourt that should dominate the new Big East bottom-feeders. John Thompson III had a young, immature team last season (as evidenced by their five-game losing streak after a hot start), but with the three starting sophomores all with a year each under their belt starting alongside two seniors, JT3 is on his way to living up to his father’s name.
Texas Tech lost its best player in Ronald Ross, but this is the first year Bob Knight has all his own players (the Red Raiders have no scholarship seniors on their roster) and with Dean Smith just 25 victories away, Knight’s team should surprise some people.
Pops Mensah-Bonsu opted not to enter the NBA Draft, which should help GW get to its second-straight Tournament.

16) West Virginia
17) Nevada
18) Arizona
19) Iowa
20) Wisconsin
Kevin Pittsnogle and Mike Gansey: Two names which will haunt Wake Forest fans forever. Let’s move on.

21) Wake Forest
22) Old Dominion
23) Memphis
24) UCLA
25) Kansas
ODU is my sleeper team this season; right now I’m planning on picking the Monarchs to win their first round NCAA Tournament game and will hold true to that right until the brackets come out and they draw a tricky team like Michigan State. I’ll then wimp out and not pick them and they, of course, will win anyway. This happened with Vermont last year. Damn hippies.
I’m never sold on Memphis, so #23 seems about right. Last year they fell off the face of the earth in November and December but made a nice little comeback in conference play. Seeing as how Conference USA now includes schools such as Southern Methodist, Marshall, Rice and, presumably, Lincoln Technical Institute, expect the same to happen this year.
Syracuse is a team I didn’t want to rank at all (without Hakim Warrick I’m just not seeing it happening for them), but then I noticed I had inadvertently ranked Boston College twice, so I had to do some maneuvering and ended up putting the Orangemen (yes, Orangemen – Orange isn’t a mascot, it’s a color… and a fruit) in the top 25. Eh, forget about it. I crossed them off and replaced ‘em with UCLA.
Usually I’ll throw a random mid-major team in at #25 on the off-chance that if they upset someone in the Tournament, I can talk about how smart I am, but it was just too weird not having Kansas in these rankings. Plus I think my Godfather (a KU alum) would disown me if I didn’t give the Jayhawks some love.

Final Four Predictions
Duke
Villanova
Michigan State
Texas Tech

2005-2006 NCAA Men's Basketball Champion
Villanova Wildcats