Tuesday Thoughts

Sorry for not posting anything yesterday. Thursday’s surgery is still beating me down like Jason Varitek on A. Rod. But, enough about me... Let's cut to chase.

Tiger Wins The Masters
Please don’t say that Tiger is back, because, in reality, Tiger was never gone.
Those who were asking what was wrong with him when he wasn’t winning every major had unrealistic expectations as to what Tiger could do.
It would have been preposterous to expect him to have continued winning at the clip he was back at the turn of the century. Four straight majors? That’s unheard of. Nicklaus only won two straight twice, but never got three. Getting four straight was like McGwire (steroid-aided or not) breaking Roger Maris’ record and then going all the way to 70. Winning the U.S. Open by 15 strokes? Insane. That just doesn’t happen in golf, but Tiger was doing it.
You had to be delusional if you thought Tiger could have kept up that pace. But even when he wasn’t winning majors, Tiger was still one of the Tour’s best players, picking up the Player of the Year trophy in his major-less 2003 season. Last year he would have been a contender again if not for an unconscious season from Vijay Singh.
Even when he was down, Tiger was still one of the best players in the world. But during that time Tiger wasn’t fighting the demons or confused about his relatively poor play, he was fixing his swing – something that might seem preposterous considering he was the best player in the world with the old swing. But don’t forget that he did the same thing after his ’97 win at Augusta, working with Butch Harmon when most thought they were crazy to tinker with greatness.
After the close of the 2002 Tiger began working again at fixing his shot, this time with Mark O’Meara’s old coach Hank Haney. Last year you could tell he was getting close. Augusta showed that he’s closer, but not there yet. When he is, you can go back to expecting Tiger to win every Tournament he enters.
Tiger’s win Sunday at Augusta might have been the most important of his career. It was his first post-marriage, post-“slump” and post-dealing with his father’s sickness. That he had to win in a playoff with the likes of Chris DiMarco (I’m being sarcastic, mind you) is irrelevant. DiMarco played unbelievably down the stretch and he and Tiger lapped the rest of the field by seven strokes. Think of it this way, without DiMarco Tiger would have dominated and been on the cover of Sports Illustrated this week with the headline “The Roar is Back” or something cheesy like that. But DiMarco was there and Tiger proved his mettle, as he did back in 2000 with Bob May at the PGA. Forget about the bogeys at 17 and 18. Those don’t prove that Tiger is struggling, they just prove that Tiger is human. His birdie on 18 the second-time around is all you need to remember. (That chip on 16 might be one for the memory banks too. Think you’ll see that replay about two hundred times during the NCAA Tournament next year?)
How does one follow-up greatness? Michael Jordan had to retire after his run of three-straight NBA Championships and dabble in baseball to keep a level head. He came back and then retired again after three more. After releasing Blonde on Blonde, Bob Dylan was issued a challenge from the Beatles in the form of Sergeant Pepper’s but retreated to Woodstock, took some time off and came up with the radically simplistic John Wesley Harding. When trying to complete the follow-up to his masterwork Pet Sounds, Brian Wilson went crazy.
Everyone deals with the burdens of following greatness in different ways. Wilson’s mental troubles while working on Smile kind of put Tiger’s little "10 straight majors without a win" in perspective, doesn’t it?
Tiger didn’t quit when faced with the challenge of how to follow up the best run in golf history. He didn’t go on sabbatical and didn’t lose his mind either. He simply tinkered with his swing to get back to playing the best golf in the world.
He’s back, even if he was never gone.

The Red Sox Get Their Rings
Yesterday’s glorious ring ceremony at Fenway Park put the final period on the Red Sox magical 2004 World Series run. Everything from the ovations for past and present players, the standing O for Mariano Rivera (who graciously took the sarcastic cheers in stride), the salute to Johnny Pesky, the Yankees classily clapping whilst watching on their dugout steps and the raising of the World Series flag with Yaz and Pesky were well thought-out and will become the benchmark for all other Championship celebrations.
It’s too bad that there was some media-made controversy about Derek Lowe and Dave Roberts, two former Red Sox, now with different N.L. West teams, wearing a Red Sox jersey for the ceremony.
Let me sum up my thoughts on this subject in five words: John Kruk is a moron.
There would be no controversy without the idiotic Kruk and Harold Reynolds, both of whom ripped Lowe and Roberts not just for wearing the Sox jerseys to the ceremony, but for showing up altogether. They believed that because Lowe and Roberts are under contract with a different team, they shouldn’t wear a jersey of a different team. They were saying that because it is 2005 those players have to act like it’s 2005 and be responsible members of different organizations. Essentially, their main point was “what’s in the past is in the past and the present is all that matters.”
Under that ridiculous theory, Edgar Renteria, Matt Mantei, David Wells and other new Red Sox players who weren’t on the team last year should have received rings yesterday because only the present matters… right Mr. Kruk?
Lowe and Roberts were classy enough to come back, particularly Lowe who left on a bad note with the Sox brass. (Roberts was granted a trade so he could lead-off in San Diego rather that sit on the bench in Boston, so he probably has nothing but love for the Red Sox owners.) Both wore a special jersey over their clothes and received loud ovations from the crowd, important especially for D. Lowe who hadn’t stepped on the field at Fenway since his Game 7 masterpiece against the Yankees (or since his clinching win in the Series). He needed to hear the cheers from the Sox fans that he made crazy for seven years to close the book on his time in The Hub. Lowe spent a big part of his career in Boston and will always be remembered for what he did with the Sox (unless the Dodgers should suddenly improve). He had to come back, as did Roberts, the catalyst for the greatest comeback in playoff history. Without his stolen base (the best in history), the Sox get swept by the Yankees and yesterday would have been just another disappointing home opener at Fenway.
Maybe Kruk is just bitter because he doesn’t have a ring, who knows. But he caused all this unnecessary hub-bub with his absurd comments that he wouldn’t back-off of, even when given numerous chances by a frustrated Karl Ravech. Screw Kruk. He was never that good anyways and was probably on the juice to boot.
None of the Dodgers had a problem with what Lowe did, and the Padres encouraged Roberts to attend. So Kruk has no ground to stand on.
Yesterday wasn’t about the 2005 Red Sox, or the 2005 Dodgers or Padres. It was about the 2004 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox.
Roberts and Lowe weren’t wearing Red Sox jerseys for this year, they were wearing the jersey the so proudly donned last season. So instead of thinking that D. Lowe and Dave Roberts dishonored their current teams by wearing a different jersey, just think of them as guys hanging out at Fenway wearing throwbacks.

LaVar Arrington Rips Joe Gibbs and Redskins Management
(If you haven’t heard or read about this unbelievable diatribe by a frustrated Arrington, click here.)
Now, I’m no Dan Snyder sympathizer. Frankly, I hope he and Peter Angelos sell their teams and retire to Elba where they can fully hone in on their Napoleon Complex. But for LaVar to unjustly rip Snyder and, most importantly, Gibbs is classless and the sign of an immature man looking to blame someone for his past injuries.
You never go on the record with a reporter to rip your club – do that off the record if you want. And definitely don’t question the integrity of one of the most honest and God-faring man in the business and the team he coaches and then try to smooth things over by saying, “but I love the Redskins.” That’s like a verbally-abusive husband yelling at his wife and then wrapping up his profanity-laced tirade with “but I still love you honey.”
What really makes me mad is that as LaVar was ranting to Post reporter Jason La Canfora, La Confora had to have asked whether or not LaVar was sure he wanted the conversation on-the-record. I guarantee he probably asked at least three times. So, while I can forgive the fact that LaVar was probably just having "a moment", the fact that he consciously knew what he was saying would appear in the paper and, just like with Kruk, when given the opportunity to put an end to the madness, refused, is unforgivable to me. That's why I'm so livid about this.
LaVar backed himself into this corner with his actions over the past six months, with this being the icing on a sour, sour cake. Even though he claims all is kosher with Gibbs and the coaching staff, there is little doubt what needs to happen next: LaVar has to go.

Friday Headline Review

Santana Moss and Sean Taylor No-Shows at Redskins Workouts
The Washington Post reports in today’s editions that both Moss and Taylor, former University of Miami stars and current Drew Rosenhaus clients, have yet to attend the Redskins on-going “voluntary” workouts.
This sort of behavior from Taylor seems about right considering his bizarre behavior since being drafted last year, but for Moss to skip a workout whilst seeking a large contract extension that, frankly, he doesn’t deserve is a bit puzzling.
Is this supposed to be a negotiating ploy by him and Rosenhaus? (Rosenhaus also advised his new client Terrell Owens to ask the Eagles to rework his contract. Apparently Rosenhaus values contracts the same way Liz Taylor values marital vows. That’s right, Liz Taylor. It’s been a while since somebody has made a “Liz Taylor gets married all the time” joke, and I kind of miss them. But I digress.)
Is skipping a workout that most of the team is attending really the sort of first-impression Moss wants to make to an old-school coaching staff?
In his introductory press conference after his trade from the Jets (for the embittered Laveranues Coles), Moss spoke often of how he was a team player. Ummm, OK. He could be working on timing routes with Patrick Ramsey right now, but instead is allegedly working out in Miami with some old Hurricane teammates, which you know means lifting weight in the mid-afternoon and racking up $2,500 tabs in South Beach at night. Some team player.
It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that this is just Rosenhaus playing hardball with Dan Snyder. Rosenhaus knows that Snyder will eventually cave, just like he did in other testy negotiations (Coles, Patrick Ramsey, Champ Bailey/Clinton Portis are a few that come to mind.) But can this really be the best tactic for negotiating a contract extension; holding a player out of a workout? Why doesn’t Rosenhaus just smack Dan Snyder in the back of the head and tape a “kick me” sign on his back and then call Joe Gibbs “four-eyes”?
Show some goodwill first and then if the two sides can’t agree, hold Moss out of training camp. To ‘hold-out” now is absurd and could (and hopefully will) backfire on Rosenhaus.

The Redskins continue to work on a contract; Moss, who has one 1,000-yard season in four years, is seeking to be compensated among the top wide receivers in the game, sources said. - The Washington Post – 4/8/2005

Read that last sentence again. “Moss, who has one 1,000-yard season in four years, is seeking to be compensated among the top wide receivers in the game.” Whaaa?
And Dan Snyder is going to go for this? I mean, I know Snydbrenner has been loose with the checkbook during his despotic reign, but how can anybody in the Redskins front-office think that Santana Moss is deserving of a contract on par with Marvin Harrison, when Moss only has eight more catches in his entire career than Marvin Harrison had in 2002 alone?!
Last month the Redskins signed the Patriots’ David Patten to a five-year, $13 million deal. In his last three healthy seasons (he was out for most of 2003 with an injury), the diminutive Patten had 156 catches and 16 TD. In Moss’ first three seasons (he was hurt in the first game of his rookie year) he had 149 catches and 19 TD.
Instead of Terrell Owens money, Moss should be getting David Patten money. That won’t happen though and the Redskins will again break the bank to sign an underachieving young player with “upside” being his only “upside”. It will be just another poor decision in a long line of many that has characterized Snydbrenner’s tenure as Redskins owner.
As for Taylor, a second-year player who signed a contract last year that guaranteed him over $13 million (with the possibility of $27 million more based on incentives), the fact that he wants a new contract defies all logic and basic human decency. Why would the ‘Skins want to give Taylor anything other than coverage lessons and a breathalyzer test?
I’ll never turn my back on the Redskins, but if it wasn’t for Joe Gibbs, it would be awfully hard to find a reason to support this team in 2005.
(If this were an episode of Saved by the Bell the studio audience would have just gone: “Oooooooooooooh,” like when Zach told off Stacy Carosi at the Malibu Sands Beach Club for not being a “real employee”.)

Nationals Win Second Straight
Who would have thought that the two most successful teams in D.C. would be the Bullets and a baseball team?
Oh, don’t fret, I’m not breaking out the champagne for the Nationals yet, but taking the first series of the year in Philadelphia was a nice way to start off the season and will give the team some confidence before they play their first game in their new home city on Thursday.
The obvious highlight of the Nats inaugural series was Brad Wilkerson’s cycle on Wednesday night. In doing so, Big Daddy (my new, not-so-original nickname for the Nats centerfielder. An aside on the legend of the name: In high school I had a teacher named Mrs. Wilkerson, whom was quite the tall and ample woman. I immediately started calling her Big Daddy, due to the similarity of her last name to the NFL’s Dan “Big Daddy” Wilkinson.
One day last summer I stopped by the pool where I used to lifeguard and coach swimming and began chatting up the little sister of a friend of mine who was working there. I asked how the old high school was and she replied that things there were good, but how she wasn’t looking forward to the fall when she’d be taking AP English because she’d have to have Big Daddy for a teacher.
After confirming that the Big Daddy she was referring to was one and the same, I asked who told her that nickname. She replied, “ummm, that’s just what everybody calls her.” At that moment I shed a lone tear, for I had never been so proud in my life. If I never have a child, at least that nickname will carry on my spirit.
Sorry for all the digressions today… yesterday I had surgery #2 on my foot and have ratcheted up the painkiller usage once again.)
Anyways, Big Daddy’s cycle was the second of his career, thus making him only the 26h player in baseball history to accomplish that feat.
In the same game, Christian Guzman made some history of his own by becoming just the 3rd player this decade to suck so bad after signing a four-year, $16 million contract.
Wilkerson’s cycle was the 233rd ever in baseball, which made pitching a no-hitter a rarer feat, as there have only been 232 of those in history.
Other good things about the Nats: The road unis, Zach Day, Nick Johnson’s patience, Termell Sledge’s name, Jose Guillen’s bat and Chad Cordero and the bullpen.
The negatives: The aforementioned Mrs. Guzman (oh, did I say Mrs? I clearly meant Miss), Jose Guillen’s effort, Livan Hernandez (but he’ll be fine) and the lack of games broadcast on DC television or the Extra Innings cable package.
For those not living in or around the District, only the Nats opening day game was broadcast on local television. The next two games weren’t available anywhere, even with the In Demand baseball package.
I mean, I know baseball let Angelos walk all over them when negotiating television rights and, as a result, there are only 76 games scheduled for DC TV (although today’s Post says there are plans for more), but why couldn’t they have shown the Phillies broadcast on the Extra Innings package? Half the reason I paid $149 is to watch those Nats game that aren’t on TV. (The Red Sox are on nearly every game though, so all isn’t lost.)
At the moment there is no cable deal for the Nationals since the local sports station (Comcast Sportsnet) shows Orioles games exclusively. This is crap and baseball knows it, but they’re too weak to go up against Angelos. Knowing that the famed asbestos litigator would sue baseball if they crossed him, MLB wants to do everything they can to appease the man who has single-handedly destroyed one of the model franchises in all of sports.
MLB would likely win the lawsuit because Angelos has no claim to the imaginary territorial television rights, but because the case would probably drag on for years, selling the team would become more difficult (not that selling a team that will only receive 33% of money from their TV deal is going to be like unloading coke at a Dallas Cowboys reunion.)

Fever Pitch debuts in theaters
It’s not often a casting choice causes so much hostility from a film’s core demographic and turns a potentially great movie into an unwatchable one simply because of one actor.
Somehow though, Fever Pitch has managed.
The film, about an obsessive Red Sox fan who is torn between his favorite team and a woman, could have, and should have, been a must-see for any Red Sox or sports fan.
Every guy (or gal) can relate to the film’s main character who has to balance his love of a woman and David Ortiz, so that the woman still loves him and that he still loves David Ortiz. It’s a road fraught with peril and difficulties and if you’ve ever been in a relationship and love sports, you’ve dealt with it. (I wrote about a similar subject last May.)
That this movie is about something so many of us have experienced, it should be on everyone's "must-see" list. This is why it's too bad that the only men who will go see this film are the ones who are balancing their lovelife by letting their woman drag them to it.
Casting Jimmy Fallon as a Red Sox fan is a mistake on par with George Clooney playing Batman. Actually, it’s so much worse than that, but I needed an example.
Forget for a second that Fallon isn’t remotely funny, interesting, charismatic or handsome and possesses none of the qualities that men or women look for in an actor. Yes, forget it. To be sure, those facts are important, but not nearly as important as the fact that Fallon is a YANKEES FAN.
This is like casting John Wayne as Hitler or Denzel Washington as David Duke. You can’t have a Yankees fan playing a guy who loves the Red Sox. Nobody is that good of an actor that they can play a Sox fan whilst secretly loathing them. Not even Meryl Streep could pull that off.
Alright, the fact that Jimmy Fallon is terrible and not funny is much more important than the Yankees fan part, but it’s the principle of the matter here, people.
I haven’t even gotten into the fact that the Farrelly brothers asked for, and received, permission to film Fallon and co-star Drew Barrymore on the field as the Red Sox were celebrating their World Series title. That was wrong on so many levels that discussing it will only get me angry, which won’t be good since I can’t pace around. But, I will say this though: If the Red Sox go another 86 years without winning a World Series it won’t be because of the Bambino, it will be because of “The Curse of the Goofy Putz”.
Good work Fever Pitch people. Because of the remarkably unfunny Fallon, you’ve turned a movie that could have become a staple of DVD collections nationwide into something that’ll only appeal to those that find Horatio Sanz to be a hoot and the 40 people who liked Taxi.
I guess it could have been worse though. They could have cast Ben Affleck for the part.

2005 National League Preview

NL East

1) Atlanta Braves
2) Florida Marlins
3) Philadelphia Phillies
4) Washington Nationals
5) New York Mets
You’re probably surprised to see that I have the Mets in last, but I’ll get to that in a split.
At the top of the NL East, in a shocker, are the Atlanta Braves - a team that I have vowed never to pick against again until they’re knocked off their perch. It’s 13 years and counting for Bobby Cox’s squad and this year they figure to be the best they’ve been in a while thanks to their signing of ace Tim Hudson.
The Braves are kind of like the bad guy in Terminator 2; they can’t be killed no matter how hard you try. Last season they had no business winning the East, but because the Marlins started slow, the Expos played 103 road games and Larry Bowa exists, they did and forced on America another boring Divisional Series played in front of a three-quarters filled Turner Field.
Nothing can stop Atlanta; not Dontrelle-Mania or a new stadium in Philly or having a guy who once played with Steve Carlton on their roster (Julio Franco). Not even moving the second best closer in the game back into the starting lineup will be enough to ruin the Braves this year. Somehow, they’ll persevere. Oh, they might start slow, which will inevitably lead to dozens of stories about whether or not this is the year the Braves finally lose, but once the dog-days of August hit, the Braves will quietly seize the NL East lead from the fading, tired Marlins – a young team, but one that will melt away in the heat of Miami’s summers – and the underachieving Phillies.
It’s been said that the NL East is the best division in baseball. If we’re talking about top to bottom, I’ll agree. Even the team that most pundits are predicting to finish in last, the brand, spanking-new Washington Nationals, isn’t that bad.
The first D.C. team in 34 years inherited a decent roster from Montreal, one that struggled last year, which was understandable considering they had to play some home games in Puerto Rico and the rest in an empty stadium with zero fan support.
The Nats boast a solid, if unspectacular, pitching staff that could be good if they stay healthy (which, they are not: Tony Armas, Jr. began the season on the 15 Day DL). Unlike The Wolfman, the Nats had trouble scoring last year, ranking near the bottom of the NL in the category.
The additions of Vinny Castilla (don’t be fooled by the fact he played for the Rockies – his road numbers were pretty solid too), Jose Guillen and a healthy Nick Johnson should give the Nats offense more pop, and likely give Brad Wilkerson a chance for more RBI opportunities (Wilkerson had 32 homers and scored 112 runs last year, but only drove in 67).
Washington’s lame-duck GM Jim Bowden did well bringing in those players, but signing former Twins shortstop Christian Guzman to a 4 year, $16 million deal was perhaps the worst signing of the off-season. Guzman is a fine fielder, but his bat makes Bob Uecker look like Johnny Bench. For some reason Frank Robinson has Guzman and his stellar .309 OBP batting second (behind Wilkerson – don’t get me started), but it’s difficult to imagine ol’ Frank keeping it that way for too long.
The team has little depth, so injuries could cripple their season, but with the Nats free agent acquisitions, 81 home games in a packed stadium filled with baseball-craving fans and a surprisingly solid rotation, Washington could hover around .500 and will likely prove the naysayers, who are predicting doom for the team’s first year, wrong.
Now what about those Mets?
They’ve been predicted to finish anywhere from first to fourth in this division (usually second or third though), but I’ve yet to see anybody put them in the cellar (a place they have finished in two of the past three years).
Yes, I know Omar Minaya is a genius – I read the New York Times Magazine article too – and how the pick-ups of Pedro and Carlos Beltran will invigorate Shea Stadium and make the Mets relevant again, but I’m not seeing how those two acquisitions are going to make a 71-win team that much better particularly with Al Leiter gone and Brandon Looper still the only option in the bullpen.
Pedro is still a great pitcher, but don’t forget that his ERA jumped 75% from 2003 to 2004, not a great thing to have happen, especially in a contract year. The jheri-curled one still has the ability to get people out (as evidenced by his 12 K opening day performance), but he’s not the dominating pitcher he once was. His season-fragility is a myth (he’s made 29 or more starts in every year but one since 1995), but his inability to go deep into games is not. Pedro only threw more than seven innings four times last year. Even when Pedro is “on” like he was in Game 3 of the World Series, he’s still not “on” like he once was. His fastball has lost velocity, the change-up isn’t as baffling (and is now his “out” pitch) and anytime his pitch count hits triple digits, it’s time to take him out.
In short: Pedro isn’t the dominating pitcher he once was, and even if he does show flashes of the Pedro of old, there’s two things working against the Mets:
1) He’s only on the mound every fifth day just like Tom Glavine, Kris Benson and Victor “BB” Zambrano. Kris Benson? And you thought they overpaid for Pedro!
2) The bullpen is weak, and since Pedro can’t finish what he starts, they’ll be in every game he pitches. That Omar Minaya spent hundreds of millions in the off-season but went into spring training with Brandon Looper as his closer is utterly inexplicable.
Someone who is on the field every day is Carlos Beltran.
First, let me say that Beltran is a great, great player. He’s a guy the scouts drool over and would call a “five-tool guy” (kind of like Duke is a “five-tool team”). He’s fast, has a great arm, can cover the field and is a solid hitter. That being said, however, Beltran still isn’t in the class of a Bonds, Pujols, Ramirez, Ortiz, Beltre or Rolen.
Beltran’s batting average and OBP are too low (.267 and .367 last year, respectively), he swings at too many bad pitches, especially in key situations (leading to a lot of strikeouts) and, keeping with the low OBP motif, he doesn’t walk enough.
Granted, Beltran showed more patience at the plate last year, but sacrificed contact for power – which is fine by me, as long as he gets on-base enough, which he does not, so it’s not fine by me… or something like that.
Understand that picking-on Beltran’s hitting weaknesses is like doing the same with Donovan McNabb’s passing weaknesses. Both are excellent at what they do, but would help their team a lot more if they could fix some of their glaring problems.
Beltran is clearly an upgrade for the Mets, but how much he’ll help a team that has some washed-up veterans (Mike Cameron, Cliff Floyd) and young-guys with great potential (David Wright, Jose Reyes) remains to be seen. Remember, for as great as he was, Beltran only lead Kansas City to a winning record once in his five seasons there.

NL Central

1) St. Louis Cardinals
2) Chicago Cubs
3) Houston Astros
4) Pittsburgh Pirates
5) Cincinnati Reds
6) Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis will pick up right where they left off last season and should cruise in the pitiful Central.
The Cubs head into the season as a question mark, which is probably better for them than the way they entered last season as favorites.
Injuries continue to plague Chicago, Mark Prior began the season on the DL, while Kerry Wood is battling bursitis in his shoulder. Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux will be left to hold down the fort until the aces return, which is a lot better than most teams would do if their top two starters were hurt. Zambrano gets kind of lost in the Cubs pitching shuffle, what with a former #1 pick, a flamethrower that once struck out 20 in a game and, oh, a future Hall of Famer on the roster, but he is a good pitcher in his own right. If the whole rotation is healthy (a big if), then the Cubs could challenge the Cards for the division title.
Dusty Baker will miss Moises Alou’s bat (and Sammy Sosa’s affinity for meaningless solo homeruns), but Nomar Garciaparra is due for a monster season and should see some good pitches with Aramis Ramirez behind him in the order.
I’ve never heard of four guys on Houston’s opening day lineup (Jason Lane, Willy Taveras, Chris Burke and Mitchell Friedman. Mitchell Friedman?) and that can’t bode well for the team that was a few outs away from the World Series last October.
The pitching staff will keep Houston respectable, but until Lance Berkman returns, look for another cold Astro start to the season.
All those that care about the Pirates, Reds and Brewers, I heard ESPN.com did a good preview on them.

NL West

1) San Diego Padres
2) Los Angeles Dodgers
3) San Francisco Giants
4) Arizona Diamondbacks
5) Colorado Rockies
I’ll pick the Padres to win the West for the second straight season, which I guess kind of makes me like that guy that sits at the roulette wheel, plays black, loses and then keeps playing black because “it’s bound to happen at some point” but it doesn’t and he eventually loses his house, kids college savings and the fake Rolex he brought from a West African deep in the bowels of the 49th Street Subway Station in New York.
Call me crazy, but I can’t pick against a team that has a white guy who sounds black (Khalil Greene), a guy named Woody, a former Little League World Series star and the man with the best stolen base in baseball history. Plus, both The Wolfman and Scotty (the guy who jumped off a second-story balcony with an umbrella and jammed his vertebrae because he wanted to prove that what Mary Poppins did was indeed possible. So confident was he that he didn’t even bend his knees to break his fall, hence the jammed backbone) live in San Diego and can catch Padres games whenever they want, and those two would be a better good luck charm than Pedro’s little friend was for the BoSox last season.
The Dodgers won the West last year, but I can’t trust any team that has Derek Lowe as its #1 starter. I’ve seen that movie before and it was called “You Got Served (With A Slider That You’ll Hit Out of the Park)”.
The Giants are tough to call because it’s anybody’s guess how long Barry Bonds will be out. When he does return he’ll have protection in the order (thanks to Moises Alou) for the first time since Jeff Kent left the team.
Arizona will score more runs than last year (assuming Troy Glaus can stay healthy), but their pitching staff is still suspect (although Javier Vazquez will regain his pitching mojo in the desert).
And the Rockies? Well, if things start slowly, they can just hire George Karl to be their manager.

National League Divisional Series
St. Louis Cardinals over San Diego Padres
Atlanta Braves over Chicago Cubs

National League Championship Series
Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals

World Series
Boston Red Sox over Atlanta Braves

I didn’t want to pick the Red Sox to even make it to the World Series, but I’m not sold on the Twins and I think the Yankees are due for another meltdown. Oh man, that would be sweet; much like watching A. Rod and his Blade Runner sunglasses botch a possible game-ending double play ball yesterday afternoon and seeing Derek Jeter get knocked in the noggin with a Mike Timlin fastball. And J. Rod and all you other Yankees fans out there, don’t bother writing the e-mail where you chastise me for enjoying the sight of Derek Jeter getting hit in the head. I’m just going to delete it anyway.
On the National League side, I picked the Cubs to win the Wild Card just to aggravate the The Wolfman (and because their staff, when healthy, is amazing like Dan Dickau).
St. Louis and Atlanta will go to seven in the NLCS and Tim Hudson will out-duel his friend and former teammate Mark Mulder in the decisive game.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Derek Lowe Tim Hudson
NL Rookie of the Year: Still Don’t Care
NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy
NL Batting Champion: Albert Pujols
NL Homerun Champion: Albert Pujols (but not RBI)
NL Least Valuable: Shawn Green
NL Cy Yuk: Kris Benson

Due to popular demand (ie, two guys and my mom), I finally figured out how to set up the blog so you all can leave comments. During the 45 minutes it took me to do this (it should have taken about 45 seconds I later realized), it occurred to me that all I was doing was making it easier for people to insult me. But, I did it anyway because I care too damn much about you, the reader(s?) of Chris's Sports Blog.
Take a look below, next to the mail and you'll see "X Comments". To leave one, click on that and leave any thoughts, questions, comments, Derek Jeter jokes and, for you ladies out there, measurements and favorite song. I'm kidding, of course. I don't need to know your favorite song.

2005 American League Preview

AL East
1) New York Yankees
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Baltimore Orioles
4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5) Toronto Blue Jays

Last year the Yanks and Sox were about as evenly matched as can be. Despite the Yankees superior regular season record, their run differential was much worse than Boston's and was more indicative of a team with 90 wins instead of the 101 New York actually had. (Using Bill James' Pythagorean theorem of baseball: Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]) - designed to relate a team's runs scored and runs allowed to its won-lost record; the Yankees 11 win actual vs. expected differential was the most in baseball - only one other team had a difference of more than five wins.)
Statistical anomalies rarely present themselves two seasons in a row, so if the same Yankees and Red Sox teams that played in 2004 were playing in 2005, picking Boston would be the safe and logical choice.
But, of course, the two teams are not the same as they were last year. Both squads overhauled their roster, particularly their starting pitching, and have a different look than they did six months ago during their epic ALCS.
The changes in each team's batting orders are negligible (John Olerud and Enrique Wilson were replaced by Tino Martinez and Tony Womack, respectively, and a gaunt Jason Giambi has replaced a more-gaunt Jason Giambi in the Yankees lineup, while one Latin shortstop (Edgar Renteria) takes the place of another Latin shortstop (Orlando Cabrera) in Boton's.) It's the starting pitching where we find the real differnces.
Boston replaced Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe with David Wells, Matt Clement and Wade Miller, which looks alright, until you consider that their rivals swapped Javier Vazquez, Jon Lieber and the three-headed monster of Jose Contreras, Orlando Hernandez and Esteban Loiaza with Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright. (Say what you will about how much dough the Yankees forked over to sign Wright - a pitcher who exudes mediocrity - but for a fifth starter he's pretty solid.)
In essence, the Sox lost their ace and a talented headcase and replaced them with an overweight 40-something with a known affinity for everything pinstripes and two oft-injured guys who have potential coming out the ying-yang, but little else to back them up. Frankly, both the Clement and Miller signing's were good - particularly Miller, whom Theo Epstein got at a bargain price. If he starts even 15 games and is healthy for October, he'll be a steal - but Brian Cashman's free agents buys were better.
The Red Sox have trouble with lefties (David Ortiz and Trot Nixon aren't effective against southpaws), and Unit is the best there is and that will be important come playoff time. Steinbrenner overpaid for Pavano, but unlike some other recent Yankee free agent pitchers, he shouldn't be burdened by the pressures of throwing in the Bronx and will be a success.
So who had the better off-season? Look at it this way: The first thing you say when you look at Boston's 2005 roster is, "they lost Pedro". The first thing you say when you look at New York's 2005 roster is, "they got Unit... and Pavano".
Advantage: Steinbrenner.
Factor in the normal post-championship run of bad luck (injuries, less off-season dedication (just look at Manny), etc.) and it could be a tough title defense for the Red Sox.
As for the other team's in the division: Who really cares? With the way Peter Angelos has screwed the Nationals, I hope the O's lose their next 161... but that's just me... and any other baseball fan with a soul.

AL Central
1) Minnesota Twins
2) Cleveland Indians
3) Chicago White Sox
4) Detroit Tigers
5) Kansas City Royals

The Twins are this season's trendy pick to win the World Series, and you know how I feel about trendy picks. Namely, I like them like my man Sam likes green eggs & ham.
But, as much as I don't like trendy picks, I don't like the Indians or ChiSox more.
Mark Buehrle is poised for a breakout year, but behind him are a streaky headcase, Freddy Garcia and two Cuban and Yankee cast-aways (Jose Contreras and 107-year old Orlando Hernandez).
If Cleveland could ever give C.C. Sabathia some run support, he'd be considered one of the best young pitchers in the game. But because the media puts way too much emphasis on wins and losses, he's often overlooked. The Indians also picked up Kevin Millwood to bolster their weak rotation.
Look for Detroit to continue their improvement from their dreadful 119 loss season in 2003, and for the Royals to be one of the worst teams in the league. Their lineup is so bad that even Lou Pinella makes fun of it.
This is the Twins division to lose though. Johan Santana hasn't lost a game since July 8 and if he can shake the early-season woes that have plagued him throughout his still-young career (he gave up four in the first last night, but was fine over the next five innings) he might have a Koufax/Pedro-esque season. Behind him, the Twins will depend on Joe Mays, Kyle Lohse and Carlos Silva – all guys who are capable of putting together a 16-9 season or a 9-16 season, depending on a whole number of variables.
I’m not as in love with the Twins as some people, or as much as The Wolfman is in love with Dan Dickau, but they’re good enough to win their fourth straight AL Central crown, and with Santana in a five-game series, anything can happen.
Don’t forget that Minnesota was two outs away from taking a 2-0 lead on the Yankees with the in last year’s ALDS, with the series headed back to Minneapolis for Games 3 and 4.

AL West
1) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
2) Oakland A’s
3) Seattle Mariners
4) Texas Rangers

Now that they have finally rid themselves of clubhouse nuisance Jose Guillen and overpaid old-guy Troy Percival (finally moving Francisco Rodriguez into the closer role), the pretentiously named Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (whom I will refer to as the California Angels from this moment on) are the clear favorites in this division.
Vladimir Guererro is a joy to watch; his ability to hit any pitch, whether it be in the dirt or over his head, is uncanny and the acquisitions of Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera shore up some holes the Red Sox exploited in last year’s ALDS (Finley joins Guerrero and Garrett Anderson in the Angels outfield to form a triumvirate who will likely be overlooked all season).
I wanted to believe in Billy Beane and predict that the A’s wouldn’t miss a beat after losing their top two pitchers, but then I saw Oakland’s opening day lineup. Scott Hatteberg was batting 5th, followed by Eric “Boo-urns” Byrnes and Bobby Crosby. You can imagine who’s batting at 8 and 9. Rich Harden will have a breakout year, but other than him and Barry Zito, the A's rotation is a giant question mark.
Seattle will be greatly improved from the debacle that was their 2004 season, while the Rangers will continue to realize what Orioles fans have known for years: Pitching is kind of important.

American League Divisional Series
Minnesota Twins over New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox over California Angels

American League Championship Series
Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins

AL MVP: Hideki Matsui
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana (After my Derek Lowe pick last year, I’m not taking any risks on this one)
AL Rookie of the Year: Don’t Care
AL Manager of the Year: Mike Hargrove
AL Batting Champion: Ichiro
AL Homerun Champion: David Ortiz
AL Least Valuable: Sammy Sosa
AL Cy Yuk: Jaret Wright

Come back tomorrow from Chris’s Sports Blog NL Preview and World Series prediction.

Back In (Carolina) Blue

North Carolina deserved to win their fourth national title in school history last night, but before you start blindly praising the Tar Heels performance, it's important to remember one thing: UNC didn't win the 2005 NCAA Final as much as Illinois lost the 2005 NCAA Final.
The Illini couldn't convert open looks (Luther Head), committed stupid fouls (James Augustine) and were outhustled on loose balls and rebounds (everyone). Given countless chances to make a run and take a lead, Illinois failed and was unable to capitalize on a gassed Carolina team that only had three players show up to play and was on the cusp of blowing a huge lead.
Roy Williams' UNC team played well, mind you, but late in the game they were like a boxer using the ropes to stay afoot while waiting to be saved by the bell. One punch is all it would have taken to knock Carolina out. And while Illinois had landed the flurry to daze the Heels, they couldn't land the big one and instead bricked threes and committed bad turnovers en route to a 75-70 loss.
The Illinois Fighting Illini didn't live up to their moniker last night. Now a magical 36-win season will be labeled a disappointment and the lasting memory of Bruce Weber's stellar 2005 coaching job will be one curious decision in the National Championship.
Why didn't Weber take Augustine out after committing his third foul? The Illini's overmatched center immediately picked up his fourth when he should have been on the bench - the same place he should have been when he got his fifth foul. Sean May wasn't in the game at the time of Augustine's DQ, so what was Weber thinking by having him in? It's not like the Illini were working Augustine in the middle, so he shouldn't have been on the court unless May was there to defend.
Speaking of May, he had a night for the ages, dropping in 26 points on 10/11 from the floor and pulling down 10 boards while combining with classmates Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants for 57 of the Tar Heels 75 points. The junior from Bloomington was unstoppable in the paint, as expected, and won a ring to go along with his father's, who was the MVP of the undefeated 1976 Indiana team.
But even with May's interior dominance, Illinois was in the game late after erasing a 15-point second half deficit to tie the game at 65 and again at 70. The jumpers didn't fall though, as Luther Head and Deron Williams missed two shots each in the game's final 90 seconds; shots that would have tied the game or given Illinois the lead.
UNC's defense wasn't as porous as some expected, but the Illini's ball movement and screens still created open looks for their shooters who then couldn't convert.
Head, in particular, had two great looks, particularly on the shot he took with his team down 73-70. The senior was freed-up off a double screen and the release looked perfect, but the ball clanked off the back rim and essentially buried Illinois' hopes.
For the night Bruce Weber's team shot 12 for 40 from beyond the arc, a miserable 30% for a team that shot 40% for the season.
While Illinois didn't win and didn't play particularly well last night, all their doubters have to acknowledge they were wrong in questioning the team's talent. If UNC is as good as everybody says they are (I'm not one to rain on a victory parade - well, yes I am... particularly on a rival's victory parade - but I don't think the Heels were nearly as good as they should have been, considering they have four potential lottery picks in their rotation), then Illinois must be pretty damn good too considering they stayed in the game despite playing miserable for the game's first 20 minutes and only hitting 30% from three.
Outside of Champaign, the saddest college town in the country right now is Lawrence, Kansas. Jayhawk coach Bill Self must be disappointed that his former team and all of his recruits came up short in their quest for the NCAA title, and KU fans are swallowing the bitterest pill of them all - watching Roy Williams cut down the nets wearing Carolina blue, after 15 years of near-misses with the Jayhawks. You think the name Roy Williams was Mud in Lawrence before? After last night, his name is now much worse than Mud... today they probably won't speak his name at all, and if they do, it will be in hushed tones and they'll use a worse-than-Mud code word, like "Barbara Streisand" or something.
Good ol' two-time Roy deserves his long-awaited championship though. He's been a great coach ever since he arrived at Kansas back in 1988 and should have had at least one title by now.
Dean Smith entrusted Williams with bringing North Carolina back to national prominence, after the Matt Doherty debacle left the Tar Heels reeling. Williams did just that, ironcially using Doherty's recruits to get Carolina back to the summit of the sport, where they will likely stay for the foreseeable future.
It took Roy Williams 15 years to get his first National Championship. It won't take 15 to get a second.

Just got back from Opening Day in Philly where I saw the debut of the Washington Nationals, the first team from the Nation's Capital to play a Major League Baseball game since 1971. That they lost 8-4 was of no matter.
Now I'm hopping on 95 South to try to get back to D.C. before UNC and Illinois tip-off in the National Championship.
Quick prediction: Sean May will dominate the paint, but it won't be enough to overcome a poor shooting night from Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants, who will be held in check by Deron Williams. The Heels poor perimeter defense will leave Williams, Dee Brown and Luther Head with open looks, and they'll take advantage.
Illinois is 37-1 and somehow the underdog in this game. Don't think Bruce Weber hasn't mention that to his team a few dozen times in the past 24 hours. This is their chance to earn the respect they haven't received all season.
Expect a thriller.
Pick: Illinois 80 - North Carolina 76

Final Four Preview

#1 Illinois vs. #4 Louisville
When it comes to underrating Illinois, I’m about as guilty as they come.
In my College Basketball Preview, I slotted the Illini at #10, but felt compelled to add that their backcourt was overrated and also mentioned that if the Illini played in the ACC, they'd finish fourth. In the next paragraph I wrote that the premise of Desperate Housewives was unbelievably stupid and the show would be cancelled by Christmas.
Even as the Illini kept winning I was hesitant to jump on-board their bandwagon (after their destruction of Wake Forest in Champaign, I acknowledged that Illinois was better than expected, but chalked up the dominating win to emotion, not talent), even when they reached the regular season's final week undefeated. The loss at Ohio State actually made me respect Illinois more (maybe I was just happy that I had called the result of that game three weeks before), but still... they weren't the real deal in my eyes.
But after watching Bruce Weber’s team roll through each of the six games that followed the loss in Columbus and witnessing their historic comeback against Arizona in the Regional Finals, I'm sold and now think it would be preposterous for anyone to say that Illinois is not the heads-on favorite to win the NCAA Championship. And that's why the Vegas odds on the subject are so startling.
At the moment, North Carolina is 3:2 to win the title, making them a slight favorite over 2:1 Illinois. Yes, the same Carolina that needed a bogus traveling call to bail them out against an injured Villanova team and struggled with a Wisconsin team that beat heavyweights Northern Iowa, Bucknell and N.C. State to get to the Regional Final is now the favorite over a 36-win Illinois team.
How is this possible? How is Illinois still not getting any respect? They're 36-1! If Duke had played the same exact schedule with the same exact team, we'd be hearing about how they're the greatest team of all-time and a lock for the Championship. Instead, the team with 35 more wins than losses will likely get points against a team that lost to Santa Clara.
It’s not just gamblers who are faking on the Illini either – 49% of ESPN.com users think North Carolina will win, compared to only 32% who favor Illinois.
What, has everyone been brainwashed by Dick Vitale and Billy Packer, analysts who continue to overrate the Tar Heels despite overwhelming evidence that they are eminently beatable?
All season long, analysts like Vitale and Packer have been making the case that UNC is the best team in the country because of their talent level and have ignored the obvious deficiencies in their game, while keeping their ranking and hype sky-high.
It’s difficult to argue with the assertion that the Heels are the most talented team in the country: Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants and Sean May are among the best players in college basketball and the Tar Heels’ sixth man, Marvin Williams, could be the first pick in the NBA Draft if he decides to go pro. If all four enter the draft, they'd all be first round picks. That's talent.
But as numerous teams have shown in recent years, a collection of talent makes not a team.
I suppose the Heels are favored because of Sean May, who would eat James Augustine alive if they played, but that assumes that Carolina will - wait, this was supposed to be a preview of the Illinois-Louisville game… how did this delve into a Carolina preview?
Back to Illinois-Louisville: Rick Pitino has Louisville playing great basketball. They go through long stretches of the game where they don’t score though and while that was OK against Washington and West Virginia, it’s not going to fly against an Illinois team that can drop 20 points between TV timeouts.
It can’t be a good sign for the Cardinals that their 2-3 zone was ineffective against Mike Gansey and Kevin Pittsnogle. If those chuckleheads were getting open, just imagine what Deron Williams and Luther Head will do.
Pitino likes to break out a press every now and then to change it up, but a press to Illinois is like a mosquito to an elephant; an easily-ridded nuisance.
I always thought Illinois’ biggest question mark was how they would handle a close game, seeing as how they really hadn’t played many all year. Technically, the jury is still out on that one, since the Arizona game wasn’t close until overtime. But, if the Illini can come back from 15 down in the last four minutes, it’s tough to doubt their ability to play under pressure.
If Louisville wants to get back to the Finals for the first time since Denny Crum and Pervis Ellison cut down the nets in 1986, they’re going to have to guard the perimeter and hope they catch Illinois on an off shooting night. The Cardinals are capable of scoring against Illinois, but probably not outscoring them. It will take a stellar defensive effort and a big contribution from guys like Ellis Myles and Juan Diego Palacios – both of whom can bang with Augustine – in order for Pitino and company to pull the upset.
They’ll keep it close early and get within two or three possessions late, but in the end, Illinois will prevail and earn their rightful spot in the National Championship.
Pick: Illinois 89 – Louisville 80

#1 North Carolina vs. #5 Michigan State
Only twice in the last 20 years have the two best teams in college basketball met for the National Championship. In 1999 Mike Krzyzewski led one of his best Duke teams to the Final, where they were upset by Khalid El-Amin, Rip Hamilton and Connecticut. Six years earlier, Chris Webber’s timeout killed the Fab Five’s chance at a title, thus giving Dean Smith his second NCAA Championship.
In both those seasons, the two teams meeting on Monday night were (arguably) the two best teams in the sport headed into the Tournament.
When the brackets were announced 19 days ago (it seems like a lot longer than that, doesn’t it?) the two favorites were Illinois and North Carolina, and those who weren’t trying to be cute (and picked, say, Oklahoma State) had those teams meeting in the Finals.
Now, here they both are, 80 minutes away from making the dream match-up come true. It would be the most anticipated Final since that 1999 game, and would likely draw a huge rating for CBS. In short, it would be perfect.
And that’s why it’s not going to happen.
I don’t know how, I don’t know why, I don't know squat – all I know is that Illinois won’t play North Carolina for the National Championship.
I can’t say I’m positive about this (like I was when I guaranteed that Smarty Jones wouldn’t win the Triple Crown), but I’m pretty sure. It’s too good and we’re not that lucky.
Since I already picked Illinois, I guess that means I have to pick Michigan State to keep up appearances. It’s not a bad pick, mind you, after all, recently UNC has looked more vulnerable than a drunk bridesmaid after a bad breakup.
Steve Alford was right: UNC’s defense is terrible. They let Wisconsin put up points like they were the Denver Nuggets, circa 1984.
The Heels inside guys spend way too much time trying to help out Sean May, and thus leave the lane open for easy put-backs and back-doors. They don’t rebound either, leaving May to clean the glass, and that could be a problem if Paul Davis gets the round-one in foul trouble.
Outside the lane, Rashad McCants looks like he’s sleeping half the time on defense and Raymond Felton gets driven on more than the Autobahn (only by good point guards though; I don’t think Michigan State will be able to work Felton tomorrow).
The key to the game though is the May-Davis match-up. I love May and think he’s as underrated as his team is overrated. But he has yet to face a physical, aggressive center like Davis (both ACC Williams – Eric and Shelden – have the size, strength and game, but neither play too physical) and if the refs are calling the game tight, that could spell doom for May.
North Carolina is far from the unbeatable team that some have called them. Their play over the last seven games has been spotty, at best, and all the pressure is on them tomorrow night.
The aggressiveness of MSU will stun the Heels early and foul trouble will hurt them late.
The perfect Final won’t happen. And Roy will again have to wait until next year.
Pick: Michigan State 74 – North Carolina 72

Next Week's Lineup:
Monday: NCAA Championship Preview
Tuesday: NCAA Tournament Recap
Wednesday: 2005 MLB Preview
Thursday: April Fools (Belated)

Chris Answers PTI's Questions

Steve Alford says North Carolina lacks defensive presence and won’t beat Michigan State, let alone Illinois or Louisville. What do you think?
Let’s, for a second, forget about whether Alford’s statement is true or not and focus on the more intriguing question at hand: Since when did Steve Alford become America’s resident basketball expert?
Why should we care what Alford thinks about anything, let alone the 2005 Final Four? Alford hasn’t been relevant since 1987, when he led Indiana to the NCAA Championship. The closest he’s gotten to the Final Four as a coach was back in 1999 when he was at Southwest Missouri State (the Bears advanced to the Sweet 16 that season), which should tell you all you need to know about Alford’s six-year tenure at Iowa. The Hawkeye’s appearance in the 2005 Tournament was just their second trip to the Big Dance since Alford took over for Tom Davis.
And this is the guy that the mainstream media is relying upon for pre-game Final Four soundbites?
I know, I know… Alford is the only coach to have faced each Final Four team this season, a random, fluky feat that apparently makes him a combination of Digger Phelps and Nostradamus.
Although, shouldn’t it matter that Alford’s Iowa team played Louisville and UNC before Thanksgiving? And considering that college basketball coaches are way too busy to watch any games for recreational purposes during the season, the only time Alford has probably seen Carolina play since that November game was last weekend when they struggled against both Villanova and Wisconsin. So, pretty much, he’s basing his opinions of Carolina on a game that took place four months ago and two mediocre performances. All those ACC games don’t matter to Alford, I suppose.
Why am I ripping Alford? I’m not, really, I’m more ripping on the fact that every major media outlet ran with Alford’s remarks as if he was Matthew, Mark, Luke and/or John and then deemed his predictions newsworthy.
Did the media pause to consider that Alford, a Big Ten guy if there ever was one, might be a little biased in favor of teams from his conference? He has every right to be, of course, but it shouldn’t be news. I don’t see AP wire stories breathlessly announcing that Bill Clinton thinks Hillary has what it takes to be president in 2008 or segments on Access Hollywood focusing on Will Smith’s belief that Jada should be getting Halle Berry’s roles.
This story is the epitome of what happens in a slow news week. And for all the belly-aching I just did, I happen to agree with Alford.
I’ve been weary of Carolina all year and have been baffled by the unbelievable amount of hype the team has received. They’re great, don’t get me wrong. But to read and listen to some basketball analysts, you’d think that these Heels were the second coming of Wooden’s UCLA teams.
But I’ll get into this more on Friday during Chris’s Sports Blog 2005 Final Four Preview.

Is Larry Brown done for the season?
I wish Larry Brown the best during his current health issue and hope he has a speedy recovery.
That being said, I’m so sick of the Larry Brown “will he or won’t he” game that we seem to play every couple of years.
There’s no doubting that Brown is a wonderful coach and is to reclamation projects as Chris Paul is to season-crippling crotch-punches (both are the best there are, in case you couldn’t figure out the analogy), but he’s a coaching nomad and is never happy once he’s settled.
Take a look at all the stops Brown has made during his coaching career:
1973-1974 – Carolina Cougars (ABA)
1975-1979 – Denver Rockets/Nuggets (ABA/NBA)
1980-1981 – UCLA (NCAA)
1982-1983 – New Jersey Nets (NBA)
1984-1988 – University of Kansas (NCAA)
1989-1992 – San Antonio Spurs (NBA)
1992-1993 – L.A. Clippers (NBA)
1994-1997 – Indiana Pacers (NBA)
1998-2003 – Philadelphia 76ers (NBA)
2003-???? – Detroit Pistons (NBA)
That’s ten coaching stops in 23 years, including a remarkable four in five years from ’79-’84.
So of course Larry Brown isn’t going to stay in Detroit for much longer. He dipped out of Lawrence after the Jayhawks won the NCAA Championship and I’m kind of surprised he didn’t bolt from Detroit after the Pistons won the NBA title last June.
He’s never happy unless he has one foot out the door... do the math.
To answer the question: I don’t care what Larry Brown does. I’d sort of like to see him back in the college game at some point. (Wake Forest has an opening, Larry could -what… they don’t have a vacancy? Wait, that’s not a ventriloquist’s dummy sitting on the bench in a $600 suit not doing anything all game? Well I’ll be damned.) Anyway, don’t expect Brown to be coaching the Pistons next season.

Is the NFL’s steroid testing too weak?
Probably, but it doesn’t matter too much.
I’m all in favor of the NFL bulking up their testing procedures, but unlike with baseball, steroids aren’t viewed as a big problem in the NFL. The testing has been in place since the late ‘80s and catches a few guys per year. The general consensus is that the league is pretty clean.
There will always be flaws in testing but on the whole, it is effective because players are sufficiently afraid of the consequences (four-game suspension, without pay, for a first positive test, as well as public ridicule). Some users will still slip through the cracks just like with any drug test (how has Edgerrin James never tested positive for weed?), but that’s to be expected.
In light of the new information about the three Panthers players using testosterone cream, the league will likely stiffen its testing procedures, but there is no need to get in an uproar.
One more thing though: Todd Sauerbrun? On steroids? Really?
What, did he want faster recovery time from those grueling practices where he stands around for six hours and flirts with the female TV reporters? Or stronger finger muscles to hold the ball more firmly on field goals?
But at least Sauerbrun now has a valid excuse (‘roid rage) for why he’s been beefing with the Gramatica brothers.

Your thoughts on baseball’s medical advisor’s resume flap?
Long story short: Baseball’s medical advisor, who praised the sport’s steroid testing policy and ripped on anybody who disagreed, is a big liar. Bug Selig, in his infinite wisdom, had this to say about Elliott Pellman’s resume lies (which were numerous and fairly substantial) through a spokesman: "I don't see why it should impact his credibility, I really don't.”
Nice. This is why football doesn’t have a steroid problem, but baseball does.
Also, why is baseball’s top medical expert an internist who graduated from Stony Brook med-school? No disrespect to Stony Brook, which I’m sure is a wonderful institution, but couldn’t baseball get somebody with clout to be their main medical advisor? It’s all about appearances, and, fudged resume or not, Pellman isn’t exactly C. Everett Koop.
This is just another example of baseball’s stupidity and lack of public relations savvy.

Was Jerry Sloan right in benching Kirk Snyder for taunting the opposing bench?
Kirk, bubelah, you’re 22-49. Under no circumstance should you be doing anything to draw attention to yourself, least of all taunting a team that was beating you by 10 and has won 21 of their past 28 games.
You’re just like those morons in the NFL that still do their sack dances when their team is down by four touchdowns or the guys that still go with the choreographed end zone routines in the same situation.
You’re lucky Jerry Sloan only suspended you. You may think you’re tough, but Sloany would wreck your world if you stepped.

Why is Matt Doherty not coaching?
The whole “his team hated him and threatened to transfer” label really has staying power, doesn’t it?
Or maybe Doherty’s inability to get a job (they say he’s doing TV work now, but I ask you: Have you seen that prematurely gray, once-snaggletoothed man anywhere recently?) stems from his comment about the ugliness of Duke cheerleaders from a few years back.
Think about it; what if Duke cheerleaders were like the Skull & Bones of the college basketball world and every decision actually went through their unattractive circle before being made? And because of Doherty’s diss, the Duke cheerleaders blacklisted him and have prevented him from getting any job except that non-existent TV gig, all the while biding their time and waiting for the perfect job to open up, which upon finding, they’ll award to Doherty, knowing full-well that the program will be hit with the NCAA death penalty soon after he takes the job and because of the Photoshopped pictures of Doherty and Phil Ford’s wife that the Duke cheerleaders are in possession of, they’ll blackmail him into staying and serving out his career in Division II, where Doherty will be forced to take buses to southern Kentucky for road games in high-school gyms where nachos and hot dogs are sold for a quarter late in the second half, all of which would happen because Doherty accurately insulted the Duke cheerleaders back in 1999.
I’d say the odds of that being true are around 15%. Maybe even 20.

Role Play

Phil Jackson – Your woman says she “totally sees you back with the Knicks.” So what’s the deal?
I’m not Larry Brown, I don’t take reclamation projects. I find a team with one or two superstars that didn’t listen to their last coach and underachieved because of it. I then ramble on and on during team meetings about all that Zen crap, which bores everyone to tears, so when I finally start talking about the Triangle offense, the team’s ears perk up because I’m talking about basketball for once instead of noble truths and avidya’s and Sanskrit. The championships practically win themselves after that.

Serena Williams – You smashed your racquet while losing to your sister. Come on, that was fake… wasn’t it?
I’m not going to lie… except that I totally am. That wasn’t fake and I really wanted to beat my sister.

Fred Funk – Everyone’s talking about Tiger, Phil and the “Big 4”. Why couldn’t this be the year of the Funk?
First of all, it’s always the year of the funk. Except 1978, that was more of a disco year. But every other year? Pure Funk, bitches.
Secondly, in the past two years Kenny Perry and Jay Haas have shown that guys over 40 can still hang with the young’ns.
Thrice-like, did you see my hat throw? Screw Tiger’s first-pump and Phil’s constipated-jump from last year’s Masters, golf has a new “in” celebration.
And finally, somebody from the University of Maryland needs to play well this year, and it sure as hell wasn’t going to be John Gilchrist or Nik Gayner-Medley. Those boys needed a little a Funk-infusion, if you ask me.

Bruce Pearl – You’ve been at Tennessee for a day and you’re already wearing more orange than Cameron Diaz after a Fred Segal shopping spree. Are you overdoing it?
At UT, men’s basketball is the eighth most important sport, behind:
1) Football
2) Women’s Basketball
3) Spring Football
4) Football Recruiting
5) Whiskey Drinking
6) Football Practice
7) "Rocky-Top" Singing
It’s high-time men’s basketball moves up to sixth.

Raymond, The Devil Rays mascot – You’ve guaranteed a win in the Devil Rays home opener. Should mascots be predicting games?
I look like a cowboy Poppa Smurf, isn't that enough?

Big Finish

Adam Morrison staying at Gonzaga?
Word out of Spokane is that he’s coming back for one final chance to win a second round game.

Tubby Smith staying at Kentucky?
It’s apparent that Tubby isn’t happy at Kentucky and the administration probably isn’t happy with the ‘Cats underachieving ways over the past four seasons. I don’t think that this was the no-brainer that everyone made it out to be.
Tubby will be out of Lexington by 2007.

Carlos Boozer out for the year?
Oh, sweet, sweet karma. That's what you get for lying to a blind man, Carlos. Maybe you can spend your down-time getting lessons from Jason Williams on how to ride a motorcycle.

7 straight wins for the Baby Bulls?
I’m trying not to get my hopes up too soon, but there’s a good chance that the Bulls will play the Bullets in the first round of the playoffs, meaning we’ll all get to see, first-hand, who is the bigger 2001 draft bust: Tyson Chandler or Kwame Brown? It’ll be a bust-off.

McDonalds All-American game prediction?
The only white meat will be in the Chicken McNuggets... and on guys going to Duke.

Chris Answers PTI's Questions is an occasional feature on this site.

The Problem(s) With Women's Basketball

It’s nice that the folks running the NCAA Women’s Tournament have copied the format of the men’s event in recent years. Equality for all (I guess).
But, by attempting to pass off their Tournament as an event with national interest, and trying to compete with the men, the NCAA has made a mockery of women’s basketball’s glamour event.
Empty arenas, a small number of upsets and anemic television ratings are staples of the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament and unless Tournament organizers acknowledge that their event is struggling and make some much-needed changes, things are unlikely to improve.
Let me get this out in the open before I continue: I hate women’s basketball. If given the choice between sitting through a women’s game or getting a root canal from a dentist who ate liverwurst for lunch whilst listening to James Taylor’s Greatest Hits, I’d choose watching the women’s game – but I’d actually give it some serious thought.
I can’t stand how ESPN forces the women’s game down our throats by including its scores on the bottom line or promo-ing the Tournament during every commercial break or beginning their ESPN-HD intro with a clip of a women’s tip-off (the cake-taker).
Nobody cares about women’s basketball and ESPN knows this – all they have to do is look at its ratings on the network (which fall somewhere in between First and 10 and NHL games).
I also can’t stand how every year around this time someone writes a column about the beauty of the women’s game and how it’s the purest form of basketball and how you’re a chauvinist if you automatically dismiss the fairer sex’s version of the game and yada, yada, yada. That’s all a complete load of crap; it’s not a better game and everyone knows it. Don’t make me feel guilty for hating on women’s ball by telling me I’m sexist. I hate on women’s’ ball because I have eyes and taste.
Keep in mind that I’m not one to rip of women’s sports. I prefer women’s tennis to men’s, acknowledge the greatness of Annika Sorenstam and love watching women’s track and swimming. But when it comes to women’s college basketball, I can’t stand the ugly shots, poor fundamentals and lack of competitiveness.
That being said, the women’s Tournament could, and should, be an event with mainstream appeal. But, copying the men’s format isn’t the way to do that.
How can the Tournament be saved then, you ask? Well, like most problems in the world, they can all be fixed if people would just listen to Chaz (that’s me).
Among the problems with the Women’s NCAA Tournament (with possible solutions):

Problem #1: No upsets
There isn’t nearly enough talent in the women’s game to justify having a 64-team field, but that didn’t stop the NCAA from expanding the women’s field from 48 to 64 beginning in 1994.
Since then there has been a #16 over #1 upset (Harvard beat Stanford in 1998), but in most years the regional finals consist of the #1 seed playing a #2 or #3 (this year three regional finals pitted the top two seeds in the region, while the fourth game was between a #1 and #3).
The possibility of upsets and Cinderella’s are what lure viewers in, but with a top-heavy women’s game, upsets are few and far between.
Solution: Cut back to a 32-team Tournament. This wouldn’t affect the amount of upsets, but it would get rid of the worthless first-round games and begin the Tournament with contests where they are better upset chances.

Problem #2: Attendance
Have you seen some of the crowds at the women’s games? (Of course you haven’t.) Some of these arenas are so empty they make Atlanta Hawks games look packed.
In the first round, crowds of 3,000 were the rule, not the exception and Monday’s two regional finals game were played in front of a total of 8,000 people – or about 22,000 less than were at the Carrier Dome Sunday for UNC-Wisconsin.
That same day, only 3,300 people in Philadelphia watched two of women’s basketball’s most storied programs (Tennessee and Stanford) face-off in a regional semifinal.
Thirty-three hundred people for a match-up between the Duke and Kansas of the women’s game? 4,100 people showed up earlier this year in Philly for a Drexel-UPenn game for crap’s sake!
Solution: Assuming a 32-team Tournament; play the first three rounds NIT-style (on the favored team’s home court). That should raise attendance. Only the Final Four should be played at a pre-determined site – preferably in a women’s hoops hotbed like Knoxville or Storrs.

Problem #3: Poor Ratings
Diana Taurasi’s Uconn teams provided a spike in ratings during their three-peat, but without a marquee star this season, women’s ratings have gone back in the tank.
It doesn’t help that the women’s final is played the night after the men’s final either.
Solution: Move the women’s Final Four back to its old Friday/Sunday schedule.

Problem #4: Nobody Likes Women’s Basketball
And ESPN force-feeding it to the sports-viewing public doesn’t help.
Solution: Instead of promoting what’s different about women’s basketball, like ESPN and the NCAA have done (example: no dunking makes for a more traditional game), talk about how it’s not much different than the men’s game. People like the men’s game, why would they want an alternative?

The heads of women’s basketball will never go for any of these, mind you, which is a shame. As a result of their stubbornness and refusal to admit something is wrong with the womens' game, the sport will never end up reaching the vast and untapped markets that have yet to discover just how boring women's college basketball really is.

Let the hate mail pour in. Reach me at: chrisachase@comcast.net

The Dominant Big Ten

In case you didn't know, the Big Ten is a much better conference than the ACC.
Yup. Forget about the three ACC teams in the top eight of the polls throughout the entire season, or the league's solid place at the top of the RPI or the high-level of conference play from January to March. None of that matters now because the Big Ten has two teams in the Final Four while the ACC only has one.
According to many, including the Daily Quickie's Dan Shanoff (whose column, in true ESPN fashion, has changed from a must-read into totally unreadable, a la Bill Simmons. They're like the Baseball Tonight of the Internet), the Big Ten was vastly underrated all season and the ACC was overrated, and their respective Tournament results are all the proof you need. Apparently, what happened in the 30 games before the Tournament is irrelevant and only NCAA results matter when determining the success of a team and its conference.
Keep in mind that this is the same Dan Shanoff who complained about how conference tournaments are unfair to teams in one-bid leagues that dominate conference play, but get upset in their tournament and, thus, don't get a chance to go the NCAA's.
His gist: Appreciate the body of work and not what happens in unpredictable, single-elimination Tournaments.
But, in a remarkably hypocritical turn, Shanoff and others are now saying the exact opposite in regards to the Big Ten by writing: Forget the ACC and Big Ten’s body of work during the regular season and focus solely on the results of four games in March.
Doing that, you’ll realize that the Big Ten was “vastly underrated” (his words) and that the ACC was given too much credit based on the regular season.
All of which is ridiculous.
If you’re going to take up the cause of a team like Davidson (who finished their conference season 16-0 but was denied a bid into the NCAA’s because they lost in their conference tournament) by saying that their regular season should matter more than their tournament performance, then how can you say with a straight face that Michigan State’s performance in the NCAA’s is more important than their regular season?
Just because they made the Final Four, we’re supposed to revise our opinions of their mediocre regular season?
Sorry guys, you can't have it both ways. If you appreciate what makes the NCAA Tournament so wonderful (West Virginia in the Elite Eight despite being a bubble team three weeks earlier, Bucknell shocking Kansas and Michigan State overachieving into the Final Four), then you have to accept the results of conference tournaments and realize that Tournament success doesn’t mean you were underappreciated earlier in the season.
Look at the body of work, not Tournament results, as you said.
Why is the Big Ten all of a sudden better than the ACC just because they put three teams in the Elite Eight compared to the ACC’s one?
The only thing that the Big Ten's success in the NCAA Tournament proves is that the Big Ten had success in the NCAA Tournament. It doesn't change the fact that the conference had a poor regular season.
Sure, the Big Ten has saved some face with their Tourney success and deserves credit for that, but there is no need to change our opinions of the conference simply because Michigan State beat Duke and Kentucky. The Big Ten had an "off-year" this season. What's wrong with that?
I’m not badmouthing the Spartans, mind you. Tom Izzo, the most underrated coach in the country, has done a wonderful job with this team and they deserve to be in the Final Four. Teams like Michigan State are what make the Tournament so great.
I’m just saying that there’s no need to act like we all saw this coming. Hell, most people had MSU losing to Old Dominion in the first round!
Just because Michigan State is in the Final Four while teams like Oklahoma State, Wake Forest and Duke are not doesn’t mean that the Spartans had a better season than those teams. It just means that they had a better Tournament. Nothing more, nothing less.

Regional Superlatives

Quickly:

Best Game: Illinois vs. Arizona
At least it looked like the best game when I watched the highlights on the Sunday morning Sportscenter.
That’s right - I didn’t see any part of this instant classic. I’ve watched a couple hundred hours of college basketball games this year and then missed the best 150 minutes of the season. I’m not mad though; what I was doing was better and more important than watching a basketball game, but still, I wish the UNC-Wisconsin tilt had been scheduled for Saturday night instead.
From what I’ve heard though, Illinois/Arizona had it all.

Best Game That I Did See: Michigan State vs. Kentucky
No buzzer beater has ever bounced around the rim longer than Patrick Sparks’.

Worst Game: North Carolina – Wisconsin
In some years, UNC-Wisconsin might have been the best regional final game, but when three other games go into OT, a game that was decided with 30 seconds left doesn’t make the cut.

Best Player: Deron Williams
What Salim Stoudamire did in the semis, Deron Williams did in the regional final: Single-handedly led his team to the next round.

Best Player (Runner-up): Sean May
Forget Felton, McCants and Marvin Williams: Sean May is the best and most important player on the Tar Heels.

Best Player (Losing Team): Kevin Pittsnogle
At some point we’re all going to have to come to the realization that it’s Kevin Pittsnogle’s world and we’re all just squirrels trying to get a nut.

Worst Player: Salim Stoudamire
At least his room will be spotless when he returns to Tucson.

Best Officiating: Ruling Sparks’ Buzzer Beater as a Three Pointer
Good call on the floor.

Worst Officiating: Taking Five Minutes To Uphold Sparks’ Buzzer Beater as a Three
Alright, once 60 seconds had passed, what did the refs think they were going to see on the replay of Sparks’ shot? Another shooter on a grassy knoll?

Best Free-Throw Shooting: North Carolina
Up one with 2:41, Marvin Williams hit two free throws, beginning a streak of ten straight by the Heels, which included Raymond Felton (a 67% FT shooter on the season) converting three consecutive front-ends of a one-and-one opportunity.

Worst Free Throw Shooting: Kentucky
Patrick Sparks’ game-tying buzzer beater wouldn’t have been necessary if he had made a free throw 45 seconds earlier. And at the beginning of the first overtime, guard Rajon Rondo failed to put his team up six points when he missed two shots from the charity stripe.

Most Deceiving Stat Sheet: West Virginia-Louisville
West Virginia shot better from the floor, beyond the arc and at the free-throw line, which would usually be indicative of a win.

Best Coaching: Tom Izzo
Izzo has been to the Final Four in exactly half of his Tournament appearances (four times in eight trips), and this year he did it with one of his least-talented teams during his time in East Lansing.

Worst Coaching: Tubby Smith
Note to Tubby: Chuck Hayes might as well be fouled out if you sit him on the bench for six of the ten minutes of overtime.
More on Tubby below.

Softest 20-point Lead: West Virginia
Did anybody really ever believe that West Virginia was going to win this game? It reminded me of the Duke-Maryland 2001 Final Four game when the Terps were up 22, yet for some reason it felt like they were down 22.

Worst Possession: (tie) Arizona (End of OT), Kentucky (End of 1st OT)
Did Hassan Adams realize that he didn’t need to take a three pointer to beat Illinois at the end of overtime? And what was Salim Stoudamire doing? He barely moved while Adams was looking for a shot.
Don’t even get me started on Kentucky’s inability to get a shot off at the end of their first overtime with Michigan State. How does that happen? The players on the floor deserve the blame, but you know Tubby Smith will get all of it. The rumblings about Tubby’s job security will no doubt get a little louder in Lexington after yet another upset-loss for Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament. I don’t really think Tubby will leave Kentucky, but maybe a new job will be best for both Smith and the boosters that want him out. (Virginia maybe?)

Quick Predictions: Illinois over Louisville / Michigan State over UNC
Sorry, one way or another, I don’t think the dream match-up will happen.

East and South Regional Preview

Watching my brackets officially go in the toilet last night, I was struck by two things:
1) Even though Salim Stoudamire's late-game shots, particularly his go-ahead bucket with 2.8 seconds left on the clock, were amazing, J.J. Redick is still a much better shooter.
2) There's a reason why Eddie Sutton and Lute Olsen have traditionally not done well in the Tournament and only have one National Championship between them: They don't coach well late in Tournament games.
OSU's last three possessions were horrendous and their defense wasn't much better. Up four, the Cowboys attempted to steal the ball from Stoudamire, who promptly stepped up and hit a huge three. Why OSU felt the need to go for a steal instead of sitting back and defending the perimeter is baffling.
On the other sideline, Olsen made a potential crippling mistake when he told his team to foul OSU after they inbounded the ball following Stoudamire's shot. The foul gave the Cowboys the ball near half-court and put them in a better position to hit a game-winner.
Had Arizona not fouled, Lucas would have had a little over a second to turn, step and shoot from about 35 feet, with defenders in his face. Instead, the Cowboys were able to inbound with plenty of time left and Lucas had a fairly good look from the corner.
Had OSU won, they would have given Illinois fits. Arizona is a much better match-up for the Illini, and they should easily advance to the Final Four berth that has seemed to be their birthright since December.
In the day's other game, Louisville will roll against surprising West Virginia.

East Region (Syracuse)

Regional Semifinals
#1 North Carolina vs. #5 Villanova
Curtis Sumpter's injury hurts Villanova's chances at the upset, but if Jason Fraser can duplicate the 21 and 15 performance he had against Florida, then the 'Cats could continue to celebrate the 20th anniversary of their 1985 Championship in style.
Sean May will be too much though and the Heels will pull away late.
Pick: North Carolina

#6 Wisconsin vs. #10 North Carolina State
This game, and the winning team's final score, will be just like Sarah Jessica Parker: Boring, ugly and around 40.
Pick: North Carolina State

East Regional Final
#1 North Carolina vs. #10 North Carolina State
If State wins this game, it would be the most devistating moment in North Carolina history since The Andy Griffith Show was cancelled.
This would be one of the most interesting match-ups in Elite Eight history, even though a possible Duke-Kentucky "rematch" would gain most of the media's attention. (How can there be a rematch of something that took place 13 years ago, especially when only one person involved in that game (Mike Krzyzewski) will take part in this one?)
All the pressure will be on Carolina, and for a team that features headcase Rashad McCants and is coached by Roy Williams, that isn't a good sign.
That, coupled with the fact that State will not be intimidated by the Heels, means this could be an upset of epic proportions.
I picked State to make the Final Four at the beginning of the year, and I'm so tempted to do so again here. If these two end up playing, I might post a new prediction on Sunday morning because I really like the way State has played fearless basketball since Chris Paul's crotch-punch (an event that totally changed both Wake's and State's seasons), but since Wisconsin could easily knock off the Wolfpack tonight, I'll stick with my pre-Tournament Final Four pick from the East.
Pick: North Carolina

South Region (Austin)

Regional Semifinal
#1 Duke vs. #5 Michigan State
Even though it creeps me out beyond belief, I would gladly watch a continuous video-loop of Mateen Cleeves jumping up-and-down after MSU's 2000 NCAA Championship if it means the Spartans knock off Duke tonight.
Pick: Duke

#2 Kentucky vs. #6 Utah
This game will be decided by one thing: How Tubby Smith decides to defend Andrew Bogut. Oklahoma showed that doubling him doesn't work because the Croaussie has a knack for finding whoever is open with his deft passing touch. If Smith does that, Utah will win. If Tubby takes my advice (let Bogut get his 25 points and 15 boards, like he did against UTEP, and let Utah's mediocre backcourt beat you), then Kentucky will avoid another early exit from the NCAA's.
Last night I had serious reservations about picking OSU to beat Arizona, but stuck with them because I picked them before the Tournament. I had Utah beating Kentucky in this game too, but after watching the first two rounds, I'm going to change my mind.
What does this all mean? Bet the house on Utah, of course.
Pick: Kentu - oh, screw it - Utah

South Regional Final
#1 Duke vs. #6 Utah
A potential Duke-North Carolina Final Four meeting has replaced the release of Guns N' Roses oft-delayed Chinese Democracy as the most anticipated event in American history. At least, that's what Dick Vitale told me.
Pick: Duke

Midwest and West Regional Preview

The second weekend of the NCAA Tournament tips-off tonight in Chicago and Albuquerque. Chris's Sports Blog previews both regionals, but warns that they were written quickly so might not make too much sense.
Come back tomorrow for previews of the East and South regionals.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

Regional Semifinals
#1 Illinois vs. #12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Of the seven teams that Illinois could have played tonight in the Sweet 16, Wisconsin-Milwaukee presents the toughest stylistic match-up for the Illini. Granted, that’s a little like saying of all the centers in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Zydrunas Ilgauskas is the toughest match-up for Shaq, but you get the idea.
Bruce Pearl (who will be coaching tonight against Bruce Weber, which begs the question: Is this the first Bruce v. Bruce contest in NCAA Tournament history? Somebody should tell Bruce Willis to get his hands off Lindsay Lohan for a second and tune-in to CBS tonight for a historic night for Bruce’s worldwide) is a Tom Davis disciple and uses his mentor’s up-tempo, press-heavy style to harass opposing teams into turnovers.
Illinois, with three guards on the All-American first and second teams, is well equipped to handle the press, though they haven’t had to face such a high-octane defense since early in the season.
As always, Illinois is vulnerable if they are cold from the field, but look for Dee Brown to have little trouble with the Panther press, which will lead to a large amount of open looks for his teammates.
Illinois wins comfortably.
Pick: Illinois

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #3 Arizona
Normally I wouldn’t even have to think about picking against Lute Olsen in a Sweet 16 game, but the fact that his Arizona team is the underdog against Eddie Sutton’s Cowboys gives me a slight pause.
Lute tends to choke when he’s the favorite, but when nobody expects his team to win (like in 1997 when they beat three #1 seeds en route to the title), they seem to play a little better.
I’m not feeling too good about picking Oklahoma State to win it all (like I’ve been saying for the past week: If I had to wager all the money I have to my name – roughly $24.31 – on one team to win the NCAA Tournament, I would have picked Illinois. But since everybody picks Illinois, the chances of me winning my pool if I picked them would be slim. In order to win by picking Illinois, you have to beat roughly 50% of your pool. If you pick a slightly less obvious team to win, you maybe have to beat 5%, which is why I went with the Cowboys. My theory has worked, in theory of course. If OSU does win, I will win the big-money pool I’m in and battle for the top spot in the one I’m running). OSU struggled in their first two games, and now face a team with the best shooter in the country. Still, I’ve gotta stick with my guns.
Pick: Oklahoma State

Midwest Regional Final

#1 Illinois vs. #2 Oklahoma State
If it happens, this would be the only Elite Eight match-up I would have correctly predicted.
Illinois will be the favorite in this game, and with good reason - they aren’t 34-1 because they’ve been lucky.
But I’ve been saying all season that Bruce Weber’s team is quite vulnerable if they face an opponent with a strong inside presence, guards quick enough to play an effective man-to-man and good three-point shooters. Oklahoma State fits that description.
Illinois guard Dee Brown often gets flustered if his early shots aren’t falling, and if OSU can force him into some misses, and Joey Graham has his way with James Augustine, Eddie Sutton and company will be headed back to the Final Four for the second straight season.
Pick: Oklahoma State

West Region (Albuquerque)

Regional Semi-Final
#1 Washington vs. #4 Louisville
The West Region kind of reminds me of the NFL in the late-‘80s and early-‘90s when the NFC Championship Game was considered the real Super Bowl and the AFC teams in that conference’s title game were playing for the right to be a sacrificial lamb for the 49ers, Giants, Redskins or Cowboys.
Obviously, this game represents the NFC Championship.
Washington-Louisville is easily the best game of this round and whoever wins will be a heavy favorite in their next game, which won’t be nearly as exciting as tonight. This is the real Regional Final. Saturday’s game will just be a Final Four tune-up for the winner.
As for my pick, I’m sticking with Louisville, a team that has suddenly become the trendy team to win it all. You know how I feel about trendy picks, but since I was on-board before the trend started, I guess it’s OK this time. But if they lose, I swear I’m throwing away my pink tie.
Pick: Louisville

#6 Texas Tech vs. #7 West Virginia
This is the AFC Championship Game, in case you didn’t figure that one out.
Since this is the game Wake Forest would have been in had they not choked against the 6th place Big East team, writing a preview would just rile me up again.
Pick: Texas Tech

Regional Final
#4 Louisville vs. #6 Texas Tech
In case the whole Super Bowl analogy was lost on you, don’t expect this one to be close.
Pick: Louisville

Questions From a Wolfman

The Wolfman, 23, once wore a shirt advertising an upstart brand of soda (Surge) for 17 consecutive days. In his defense, he had six of them.
Occasionally, The Wolfman sends in questions to this site in a feature cleverly titled, "Questions from a Wolfman.

Now that we're down to the Sweet 16, which Cinderella team has the best chance to make it to the Final 4?
Well, both you and I had Utah in the final eight at the beginning of the Tournament, but both picked them to lose - me, to a team that lost in the first round (Syracuse) and you, to a team that's idea of chemistry is playing naked Twister while listening to Bette Middler albums (Duke).
As you have said since Thursday, it's tough to figure out how Utah ever scores any points. Somehow Bogut only scored 10 in the Utes win over Oklahoma, but he was dishing assists like he was George Mikan trapped in Bob Cousy's body. I think Utah could beat Kentucky because I don't trust Tubby Smith, like Kelvin Sampson before him, to figure out an effective way to stop the Cro-aussie sensation.
(My thoughts: Let him get his 26 points and make the Utah guards beat you. Doubling down on Bogut just frees-up players for backdoors so easy that J.J. - no, that's just too inappropriate for the blog). But if Utah meets up with Duke, you know Coach K will figure out a way to win.
I guess I still haven't answered your question. Of all the Cinderellas left (Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Texas Tech, West Virginia, N.C. State, Wisconsin and Utah), one would have to think that Texas Tech has the best chance because they're the one team most likely to get to the Elite Eight, because West Virginia isn’t any good. And in a one-game situation, who knows what could happen. The Red Raiders have beat some quality teams this year, and if former walk-on Ronald Ross has a big game, they could be in the Final Four.
But, that's sort of a cop-out answer, because I don't think Texas Tech will beat Louisville (or Washington, should they win), so I'll say that N.C. State (one of my preseason Final Four teams - Kansas, Wake Forest and Syracuse were the others. Go me.) has the best chance of making it to St. Louis. I'll go into it more tomorrow when I'll break down each of the eight Sweet 16 games.

Can you think of a team/coach you have ever been madder at after a game than Wake Forest after the Deacs loss to West Virginia?
I can honestly say that I have not been that upset over of a sporting event in a long time. When I woke up Sunday morning, with a minor headache due to all the post-game sorrow-drowning I did with my college roommate Falkow, who had driven down from Philly to watch the game, it finally dawned on me that Wake was out of the Tournament for good.
Now, I’ve watched Wake and Maryland lose Tournament games before, some in heartbreaking fashion, and I’ve been a Redskins fan my entire life. So I know the thrill of victory, but have tasted the agony of defeat much more than I would care to acknowledge.
But Wake’s loss to West Virginia was especially excruciating because of all the expectations we all had for this team, expectations which began the moment Wake Forest walked off the court in East Rutherford last March after losing to St. Joe’s in the Sweet 16.
To see their season end so quickly, in such dramatic fashion, in a game where the Deacs held a double-digit lead over an inferior opponent that should have never been allowed back in the game, was rough. Seeing that team battling Texas Tech tomorrow for the opportunity to play for a Final Four berth, well, that might be just as tough to deal with.
Instead of reading up on the Red Raiders and getting excited for tomorrow night’s game, Wake fans have to contend with Tournament apathy and the fear of Chris Paul bolting for the NBA.
I guess I’m kind of over the loss at this point, our 90-minute conference call early Sunday morning was quite therapeutic I might add, but this one will stick with Wake fans for a while, particularly if Paul leaves (which I don’t think will happen).
But where does this rank on my all-time toughest defeats list? That’s a good question.
I guess it’s one thing to lose a big game. That always hurts, but it hurts more when your team should have won, a la Wake Forest. And when bad coaching or stupid mistakes or bad refereeing takes place, that makes it hurt all the more.
So here is a list, admittedly rudimentary, of the five toughest defeats that I’ve had to cope with in the past five years (I put a five year cap on it because it’s 4:19 now and I want to post this and if I had to dig deep in the old vault thinking about games from when I was 10, I might be sitting here until midnight):

5) Maryland vs. Duke – January 2001 – “The Comeback”
Maryland held a ten point lead over #2 Duke with 55 seconds left in the game at Cole Field House. The only thing left to do was storm the court and burn some dorm furniture on frat row.
I was in the hospital for this one due to a major medical problem, and was battling the effects of morphine and a sleeping pill so I could stay up and watch the students storm the court (particularly my buddy Horo, whom I knew would be the first one at center court). But after Steve Blake fouled out, Jason Williams took over, hitting back-to-back threes in a five second span to cut the Terps lead to four.
Williams hadn’t done anything all night against Blake, whose fifth foul, shockingly, was a joke. Two more quick buckets by Duke tied the score with 22 seconds remaining (few recall that the ten-point lead was erased in a little over 30 seconds), but Maryland had a chance to win at the buzzer. A Juan Dixon jumper rimmed out and the game went to overtime.
Without Blake the Terps were done, and they ended up losing the game and spiraled into a devastating freefall that culminated with a Valentine’s Day loss to Florida State and talk of the NIT. Gary got the team back on its feet and they ended up making the school’s first Final Four in history.
By the way, I never did fall asleep that night; sleeping pill and all.

4) Red Sox vs. Yankees - Game 7 – 2003 ALCS – “Grady Leaves in Pedro”
When Grady Little went to the mound to take out Pedro Martinez in the 8th inning of the final game of the 2003 ALCS, I turned to Horo and said “it’s about time”. He disagreed, saying Pedro could still get out of the inning.
Grady Little went with Horo, and the rest, is history.
This one would be higher, but in reality, I never expected the Red Sox to win that game. I wasn’t a believer in the hogwash that was “The Curse”, but I didn’t have a good feeling headed into Game 7, and even when the Sox were comfortably ahead, I still had that feeling in the pit of my stomach.
And when Joe Buck said, “the Red Sox are five outs away from the World Series” late in the game, I turned to Horo and we both gave each other a look that spelled doom.

3) Maryland vs. Duke - 2001 Final Four – “The Comeback – Part II”
I also watched this one with Horo… jeez, maybe I should stop watching games with that guy.
When the Terps had a 22-point lead in the first half, our buddy Dickman started fashioning a piece of headgear from an empty case of Busch Light that he said was for the celebration on Route 1 after the game. Horo and I exchanged the same look we would give each other 2 ½ years later after Joe Buck’s comment.
Duke whittled away at Maryland’s lead, and when Terrence Morris got a bogus 4th foul 1:30 into the second half, the game, for all intents and purposes, was over.

2) Wake Forest vs. West Virginia – Second Round – 2004 NCAA Tournament – “Skip Blows It”
I’ve said all I need to say about this one.

1) Washington Redskins vs. Everybody – 2000-2004 – “Snyderbrenner’s Reign”
They’re all painful, all 46 of ‘em.
From the $100 million 2000 team’s week 14 loss to the Giants, which caused Snyderbrenner to can Norv Turner, despite the ‘Skins 8-7 record and very real playoff hopes, to the 37-0 blowout the next year in Green Bay which was part of an 0-5 start, to the post-Sports Illustrated loss that same year to the Cowboys after five straight wins put Marty Schottenheimer’s Redskins back in the playoff hunt, to every loss of last season – particularly the Packers game where the ‘Skins were robbed of the game-winning touchdown by a phantom illegal-motion call. They’ve all hurt.
Crap, now I’m all upset again.
Damn you Streit. Oh, who am I kidding. I could never stay mad at you.

After this year's early exit, do you think it's possible that Skip Prosser continues to ignore defense and refuses to implement a half-court offense?
As I told the kindergarten class I subbed for today, “please don’t ask questions you already know the answer to.”

Did you see Southern Illinois give Oklahoma State a run for its money this weekend?
No, but I did see them lose in the first round of the Tournament last year to Alabama. How far did you have them going? I can’t seem to remember.

Didn't you say something ridiculous the other day about Bucknell's victory over Kansas being the greatest first-round upset in tournament history?
Yes I did, and I seem to recall while you mercilessly mocked my statement, you were unable to come up with a bigger one.
I will explain myself tomorrow about why I think the Bucknell-Kansas shocker was the biggest first-round upset since the Tournament field was expanded to 64 in 1985. I would do it today, but it’s getting late and I’ve been reading stories about bears that go shopping all day and that just plain tuckers me out.

Do other people out there hate Barry Bonds as much as I do?
Man, Brett Favre, Skip Prosser, Barry Bonds – I think you need to see a rage counselor.

Did you see the Colts-Ravens are the first Sunday night game? What is with the NFL putting the Ravens on primetime all the time. They're terrible to watch and that's enough with all the Ray Lewis jive talking on the field.
It's as if the NFL front office has a man-crush on the Ravens like you have a man-crush on Peyton Manning and the Colts.
Haha, make fun of my Peyton man-crush all you want. But I seem to remember a certain somebody in 2003 going on-and-on about how awesome Dan Dickau was, and for about two weeks all they would talk about was “Dan Dickau this” and “Dan Dickau that”. And then when presented with evidence of said man-crush, that person defended himself by saying “well he’s good and you have to admit, he is an attractive man with all that hair.”
I can’t remember who that was, but I’m pretty sure he picked Southern Illinois to make the Elite Eight last year.

Questions from a Wolfman is an occasional feature on this site.

NCAA Tournament Thoughts

- Chris Paul should enter the NBA Draft.
Let me say that one more time so there is no confusion.
Chris Paul should enter the NBA Draft.
The All-American point guard from Wake Forest is likely to be a top three pick and depending on who wins the lottery, he could be the first player selected.
The allure of that, plus the guaranteed $12 million contract, is far too enticing for Paul to pass up just so he can come back to school for one more year.
Yes, he still needs to bulk up a bit. Yes, he needs to perfect his runner. Yes, his jumpshot is still developing. But those things will come. If Paul goes into the NBA he won’t be a project, he’ll be starting on a team immediately.
The three worst teams in the NBA – Atlanta, Charlotte and New Orleans all need help at point guard and Paul is as NBA-ready a player as there is in the draft.
Guaranteed millions, becoming a starter as a rookie, the possibility of playing in Charlotte and the fear of injury should he return to college are all reasons Paul would enter the NBA.
So why would he come back?
First of all, he loves college. From all accounts Paul is having a great time in Winston-Salem. He’s the most popular guy on a small, tight-knit campus, he’s on the Dean’s List (I almost made that once at Wake – if you combined my GPA from both semesters) and if he returns, would be the king of ACC basketball.
All those are great reasons to return to Winston, and they will play a large role in Paul’s decision, but whether Paul goes or stays will hinge on one thing: The ability to win a National Championship.
If Paul believes that the Deacs can cut down the nets next April in Indianapolis, then would likely be a good enough reason for him to stay. Even if he knows deep down that doing it will be a whole lot tougher than this year, Paul is as fierce a competitor as they come and the challenge will likely push his game into another stratosphere.
Coming into this season Paul earned a ton of preseason hype and it didn’t even get him out of the Tournament’s first weekend. That will drive Paul in the off-season, should he return.
But even if Paul steps it up, it will be tough for Wake to win it all next year since the Deacs will be without three of their best six players, including the most valuable sixth man in college basketball and the team’s second and third leading rebounders.
Losing Taron Downey, Jamaal Levy and Vytas Danelius to graduation will cripple the Deacs depth, particularly at guard where the guy behind Paul and Justin Gray will either be a player who scored 26 points all season (Richard Joyce) or a redshirt-freshman (Cameron Stanley). (Don’t even ask what happens if Paul goes pro.)
The nucleus of Paul, Justin Gray and Eric Williams will be among the best threesomes in the NCAA, and Duke has shown how far a team can get with no depth (and they only have two good players).
But, Duke has Mike Krzyzewski, who could win 20 games with five guys named Linus while Wake has Skip Prosser, who has yet to get anywhere in the Tournament with Josh Howard or Chris Paul.
It’s unrealistic to think that this will be the off-season that the light bulb over Prosser’s head finally turns on.
Last year he said all the right things about committing to defense, but when his team took the court for the first time back in November against George Washington, it was clear that Prosser could talk the talk, but couldn’t walk the walk.
Wake didn’t improve at all on defense, and with two of their best defenders gone next year, it’s difficult to imagine that they’ll be any better. And without a solid defense, Wake will suffer another early exit from the NCAA’s.
Paul should know better than anyone how ineffective his coach is. Wake Forest would have lost in the first round in each of the last two years if not for Paul’s late-game heroics. Does he have faith in his coach to turn it around?
In essence, that’s the decision Chris Paul has to make. Does he stay at Wake Forest, enjoying college life for one more season while making a run at the National Championship under a coach with a lousy track record, or does he bolt for the guaranteed riches of the NBA?
Even though it would destroy Wake basketball if he goes, I still think he should.
But, I don’t think he will.
Paul loves college too much and probably won’t want his last memory of his Wake Forest career to be sitting on the bench watching West Virginia celebrate their upset of the Demon Deacons.
CP will likely return for his third, and final, season to try and bring the university he loves back to the Final Four for the first time in 44 years. The odds will be stacked against him, but that’s probably just the way he likes it.

- As the Skip Prosser Hatewagon keeps rolling along, picking up new members all the while, I’ve learned of an additional piece of info that will add more Hatorade to the fire.
Because CBS, who demonstrated that they didn’t learn any lessons from the debacle that was Election Night 2000, essentially projected Wake to be the winner of their second round game against West Virginia in the middle of the first half and switched to the Kentucky-Cincinnati game, I wasn’t able to watch all of the Deacs contest. (Granted, Wake had a 13-point lead when CBS switched, but in the second half the Tiffany Network should have gone back to the Wake game when Kentucky was extending its lead just as West Virginia was cutting into Wake’s. But I digress.)
As a result, I didn’t hear about this little nugget of Skip Prosser coaching magic until yesterday.
Let me set the scene: With 1:34 left in the first half, Jamaal Levy was fouled by West Virginia’s D’or Fisher. Somebody on West Virginia’s bench argued the call a little to vehemently and was assessed with a technical foul.
With the two free throws from the technical plus two more due to Fisher’s foul, Wake had four shots from the charity stripe. Jamaal Levy had to take two, because he was the one Fisher fouled, but any Wake player on the floor could have shot the two from the technical.
That means that Taron Downey (86% free throw shooter), Chris Paul (83%) or Justin Gray (79%) could have attempted the free throws.
But, for some reason, Jamaal Levy (50%) stepped to the line to shoot the technical foul shots, which were taken first as per the rules, and missed both. He then hit one of the two free throws he had to take, leaving him one for four on the trip.
So, let me ask the obvious question: “WHAT?” Why in the name of Muggsy Bogues was Jamaal Levy on the free-throw line? Ollie from Hoosiers shoots better!
What was Prosser doing not putting Downey or Paul in to take the shots? Hmm, it’s not like that extra point or two would have helped at all later in the game ! Oh man, I’m getting so riled up again. I thought my anger has subsided, but I guess I was wrong.
I’ve thought about this rationally for as long as I could (about a half-second) and couldn’t figure out a single feasible explanation for Levy taking the technical foul shots.
What the hell was Prosser thinking? Could it be that he didn’t know a technical was assessed?
That seems unlikely since the lane was cleared.
Maybe he thought the technical shots were going to be attempted after the double-bonus foul shots?
But, technical foul shots always come first, that couldn’t have been it.
There is no good reason why Jamaal Levy attempted two free throws that he didn’t have to take. Sure, Levy should have stayed as far away from that line as possible knowing how poor a free-throw shooter he is, but that’s not his job. Nor is it Chris Paul’s or Taron Downey’s.
The coaches needed to be aware of the situation and had to make sure that the best free-throw shooter on the floor took those shots.
But, in order to do that Skip Prosser and his coaching staff would actually have to be competent. Man, what I wouldn't give for them to simply be competent.

- A few weeks back my buddy Phil scolded me for spending too much time focusing on my terrible predictions (like when I picked Southern Illinois to make it to the Elite Eight last season… no wait, that was The Wolfman) while letting my good ones go by unnoticed.
Well, Phil… here goes:
March 14, 2005: "Best Upset Possibility: #13 Vermont over #4 Syracuse"
March 17, 2005: "#3 Kansas vs. #14 Bucknell: Don’t be shocked if Bucknell springs the upset.
I’m serious."
Boss.

- Curtis Sumpter’s injury severely hurts Villanova’s chances at upsetting North Carolina in the Sweet 16, but don’t count the Wildcats out just yet.
If oft-injured Jason Fraser can duplicate his dominant performance against Florida (21 and 15), Sumpter’s absence won’t be as crippling.
Granted, Matt Walsh and Al Hoford aren’t exactly Sean May and Marvin Williams, and Fraser knows it. But his confidence level will be sky-high entering Friday’s match-up and if Fraser can hold his own in the middle, Villanova could pull the shocker.

- The rumor-mill is buzzing with the news that Gary Williams has told John Gilchrist to either transfer or enter the NBA draft.
Maybe Gary can make a call to Skip Prosser and give him the same ultimatum.

- Welcome ACC BasketBlog readers. If you enjoy the great work they do at over at the BasketBlog, you'll enjoy this site, which you can get to at either www.chrischase.com or www.chazsports.blogspot.com. Bookmark it, if you please.
Here, you'll find rants about Wake Forest basketball, the most sophisticatedly viscious anti-Duke rhetoric on the Internet (my proudest blog achievement is that I am the #1 link on Google if you search for "J.J. Redick backne") and thoughts on the Washington Redskins, Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Derek Jeter's brimming femininity and various other topics of the day.

Skip To My Lo-ser

One can only hope Skip Prosser made a mental note of what it felt like to walk off the court Saturday night in Cleveland, after West Virginia shocked his heavily-favored Wake Forest team in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. With three vital seniors graduating and the very-real possibility of Chris Paul bolting to the NBA, it could be a long time before Prosser has another chance to run a team this talented into the ground.
Wake’s double-overtime loss showed the country what Deac fans have known for too long; Skip Prosser is a terrible head coach. The team’s lack of any defensive strategy, their substitution patterns and total disregard for the Mountaineers when they were down 13 can all be pinned on Prosser, who now joins Bob Huggins as coaches whose careers can best be summed up by their Tournament failures.
Prosser had it all on this Wake Forest team. A bruising center who could dominate the low post, a tall, athletic rebounder at the four, a third guard off the bench with a sharpshooter’s touch, a scoring shooting guard and an all-world sophomore running the show. This team had the talent to win it all. Look at the roster of every remaining team in the NCAA Tournament. With the exception of North Carolina, perhaps, not one team is close to being as talented as Wake Forest.
But it takes more than talent alone to make it to the Final Four, it takes a coach who can make his players better. And, with the exception of Eric Williams, whose improvement can be attributed to losing weight and maturing, every single player on Wake Forest either regressed or saw their play stay stagnant compared to last year.
Jamaal Levy and Justin Gray played worse in 2005 than they did in 2004. Trent Strickland was the most athletic member of the team for the second straight year, but couldn’t rein in his poor decision making and harness his talents. Chris Paul again showed flashes of brilliance, but wasn’t the star on the defensive end he should have been. Vytas Danelius added the deep ball to his repertoire, but still wasn’t the player he was back in 2003.
Prosser should have had these guys on the top of their games headed into this season. And they were, at least on the offensive end. But the team’s Achilles Heel was always its defense and that showed on Saturday as they gave up 34 points in the ten minutes of overtime (that would come out to 136 points over a 40 minute game).
Except for the possessions ending regulation and the first overtime and once in the middle of the second OT, West Virginia scored every time they touched the ball in the game’s last 12 minutes. That’s inexcusable, even if they were shooting lights-out from the floor.
Defense is what has killed Skip Prosser’s team all year, and it’s what ended their season prematurely in the second round.
Now the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are forced to play a game of “what-if” for the next seven months. What if Jamaal Levy could have hit one more free throw? What if the refs hadn’t made a terrible charging call on Taron Downey? What if one West Virginia shot rattled out? What if Trent Strickland’s three pointer had fallen?
There will be hundreds of what-ifs that Wake Forest players, coaches and fans will play out in the head before next season. But the most important one to ask is this: “What if Skip Prosser wasn’t the Wake Forest head coach?”
Well, for one, today we’d be looking ahead to the Deacs next game instead of sulking over their last one.

- Some other quick thoughts on Wake’s loss to West Virginia:

• Wake Forest’s guards went 18-20 from the free-throw line (the two misses were the last two free throws shot by both Chris Paul and Taron Downey though). The rest of the team shot 6-16 from the line, including missing the front-end of three one-and-ones. Eric Williams and Jamaal Levy finished 3-12. If they had hit on just 50% of their attempts, Wake would have advanced to the Sweet 16.
• How did Vytas Danelius only play for 12 of the game’s 50 minutes? Yeah, he struggled offensively, but his replacement, Trent Strickland, couldn’t guard a folding chair. Just another sign of Skip Prosser’s coaching prowess.
• Two palming calls in one game? Seriously? Listen, I think the way refs have allowed guards to dribble the ball in recent years has bordered on ridiculous. Guys like Duke’s Jason Williams and Illinois’ Dee Brown palm the ball every time they dribble, often deceiving a defender by putting the hand under the ball and changing its direction, a direct violation of the rules. The refs never call this, and as long as they keep that uniform, I guess I really don’t have a huge problem with it. But don’t’ whistle two teammates in one game for doing something that, while technically illegal, everybody does. The carries by Chris Paul and Taron Downey were ordinary, run-of-the-mill dribbles that you’ll see 20 times in any given game, yet for some reason they got called on them. Ridiculous.
  

- I was watching an episode of Three's Company earlier today and, in the episode, Jack told some girl he met at the Regal Beagle that he owned his own restaurant, in an attempt to pick her up. Well, needless to say, it worked (although, knowing Jack Tripper, he probably didn't even need to tell fibs to pick up the ladies. He was like a 1970's version of The Wolfman - a guy who once got a girl whilst dressed as Alex P. Keaton and also picked Southern Illinois to make it to the Elite Eight last year - but I digress).
Anyway, as you can probably imagine, Jack's lie backfired when the girl surprised him by coming into the restaurant. J. Trip needed to get the real owner out of the building so he devised a plan: Jack called the owner from a pay-phone and told him there was an emergency at another restaurant and he needed to come immediately. The owner left, Jack's lady never found out he was just a chef and all was good going into the second commercial. I can only assume the lie came crumbling down around Jack in the third scene though.
Anyways, do you think I could use similar tactics to trick Skip Prosser into leaving Winston-Salem forever?

- I’m still too disappointed to write anything about any of the other games. I’ll take care of that tomorrow, as well as enlightening the world with my thoughts on Chris Paul's future, the sheer awesomeness of Spring Break Shark Attack and even more ruminations on the worthlessness of Skip Prosser. I wish he had been in that shark attack movie.

NCAA Tournament: Day One Recap

Midwest Region (Chicago)
#12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 83 - #5 Alabama 73
Everyone knows that a #12 seed beats a #5 in nearly every single NCAA Tournament, but few people ever ask why that is.
I think it boils down to the fact that #12 seeds are usually awarded to the best teams from the one-bid conferences (which Wisconsin-Milwaukee is) and most #5 seeds are underachieving schools from a major conference.
This isn’t always true, of course. Sometimes #12 seeds are the last at-large teams (as George Washington is) and many times #5 seeds are given to good, underrated schools that finished a little ways back in their conference (like Villanova).
But take a look at the other two #5 seeds, Georgia Tech and Michigan State. Both teams were supposed to be much better (each was ranked in top 10 at the beginning of the season), but had mediocre records in their major conferences. They were each given a #5 seed, which could be considered a bit high.
Michigan State is set to face CAA Champion Old Dominion today and could suffer the same fate as Alabama.
Wisconsin-Milwaukee will give Boston College a good game tomorrow and could find themselves playing Illinois in Chicago late next week.

#4 Boston College 85 – #13 Pennsylvania 65
Right now I can’t remember if I saw any part of this game, even though I must have seen a few peeks during those live look-ins.
Back in the day I used to go to the NCAA Tournament every year with my Godfather and except for one year at the MCI Center, there would always be one game of the four that was so boring it could have made women’s basketball look exciting. I’m guessing the BC-Penn game was that game in the Cleveland pod.
(That session at the MCI Center was back in 1998 and each of the four games was an intense affair.
Washington, as an #11 seed, hit a buzzer beater to upset Xavier in the early game. Next, giant-killer Richmond did it again, this time in a #14/#3 game over South Carolina. If my memory serves me correctly, it was a back-and-forth game in the second half until Richmond went ahead late. South Carolina made a furious comeback, but missed the go-ahead shot at the buzzer to give the Spiders another notch on their upset belt.
The first contest of the evening session pitted Bobby Knight’s Indiana team against Kelvin Sampson and Oklahoma. The game went to overtime, where the Hoosiers prevailed in what was Bobby Knight’s last NCAA Tournament victory until yesterday.
The nightcap figured to be a laugher, as #2 Connecticut took the court against #15 Fairleigh-Dickinson. But, just like last night, FDU kept it close with the big-boys, and actually had the lead late in the game against Uconn, thanks to an unconscious night by senior Elijah Allen, who finished the night with a Tournament-high 43 points.
I’ll never forget that name or that day – Billy Packer said it was the best first-round Tournament session in history, and even though I haven’t seen them all, it would be tough to imagine anything topping that day in D.C.)
The Ivy League has had disappointing results since Princeton knocked off UCLA in 1996. I’m not expecting Penn and Princeton to go to the Sweet 16 every year, but a win every three or four years wouldn’t kill those guys, would it?

#9 Nevada 61 - #8 Texas 57
I’m glad I was able to catch the second half of the Texas game, because I finally discovered that Jason Klotz and Brad Buckman were not the same exact person. Seriously, what are the odds that two, tall, blond guys will play on the front court of the same basketball team?

#3 Arizona 66 - #14 Utah State 53
Utah State should have flown Utah’s Andrew Bogut out to Boise to play with their team. People, of course, would have noticed Bogut, but most wouldn’t have questioned his being on the team for fear of sounding ignorant about the “it” player of the moment.
And everybody who knows that Bogut plays for Utah and not Utah State would have been confused for a minute at the sight of Bogut in an Aggies uniform, but would have eventually decided that Utah and Utah State are probably the same thing anyways.

#1 Illinois 67 – #16 Fairleigh-Dickinson 55
Whoever said there are no such things as moral victories never watched an NCAA Tournament game.
Obviously Fairleigh-Dickinson was disappointed they didn’t become the first #16 seed ever to win an NCAA Tournament game, but the pride they felt in hanging in there for 30 minutes with the best basketball team in the country was evident on the faces of each and every Knight player and coach as they walked off the floor.
Who ever thought that FDU would be down by only one to Illinois at the half? And even then, who thought the final deficit would be only a dozen? I talked to my cousin George (in Worcester, MA producing first and second round games for Westwood One) at halftime and we figured Illinois would win the game by 22.
But FDU didn’t let the Fighting Illini run away with the game and ended up losing by less points to Illinois than other Tournament teams like Minnesota (23), Cincinnati (22), Wake Forest (18), Gonzaga (17) and Michigan State (13).

#11 UAB 82 - #6 LSU 68
Not bad for a team that’s lost to Richmond, USC, Tulane, Texas Christian and East Carolina.
Looks like they proved my “no consecutive Cinderella” rule wrong. It’s a good thing I didn’t include that bogus maxim on my Bracket Tips. It was in a trial period during this Tournament, but with the Blazers win I’ve had to abandon the study prematurely and will announce my findings immediately, right here, right now. They are as follows: Never listen to me.

West Region (Albuquerque)
#8 Pacific 79 - #9 Pittsburgh 71
After sprinting to an early lead, Pacific practically begged Pitt to get back in the game. But, thanks to some of the dumbest play I’ve seen all season, the Panthers never got to within fewer than five and lost a game that nearly everybody expected them to. (I picked Pacific yesterday here on the blog as well as in five of the pools that I’m in, but in the one that I run with my college buddies I accidentally picked Pitt instead of Pacific. This is why I’m still unemployed.)
Pitt was throwing balls away, going for alley-oops when simple lay-ups would have sufficed and kept fouling David Doubley, Pacific’s 90% free throw shooter, late in the game.
The Panthers were rated highly in the preseason by most polls and publications - Sports Illustrated had them at #13, while the Coaches poll put Pitt at #17. But here on Chris’s Sports Blog the Panthers didn’t crack my preseason Top 25, much to the chagrin of a longtime reader who graduated from Pitt. I was never sold on Chris Taft as a pro prospect, and coach Jamie Dixon looks more like a mailman than a big-time college basketball coach.
Pacific will give Washington trouble in the second round. They play a very deliberate style of basketball and aren’t afraid to wait for good looks, which is why they rank in the top nationally in field goal percentage.

#1 Washington 88 - #16 Montana 77
"Being a No. 1 team is hard because you're thinking about it the whole game."
- Washington Huskies guard Brandon Roy (Jr.) after his team’s win over Montana
It’s a good thing Ashley Judd isn’t a Huskies fan, or else Brandon Roy’s head might explode when he’s bringing the ball up the court.
If Roy is actually thinking about being a #1 seed while he’s out on the court, Washington’s team can start making dinner plans for next weekend. If not, then the quote is just remarkably stupid, but it could explain why the Huskies struggled with Montana.
After bursting out of the gate to take a 13-0 lead in the first 3:01, Washington was outscored 77-75 by the Grizzlies over the last 37 minutes of the game. And unlike Illinois and Wake, top teams that struggled because of poor play, Washington didn’t play all that badly.
Montana forced the Huskies into taking bad shots and making uncharacteristic turnovers.
The Huskies will have their hands full with Pacific on Saturday and could be the first #1 seed to be knocked off this year.

#2 Wake Forest 70 - #15 Chattanooga 54
With 13:43 left in the game, Chattanooga held a 38-35 lead on the Demon Deacons. But, following a Chris Paul three, Wake outscored the Mocs 35-16 to close out yet another trying first round game under Skip Prosser.
Back in 2003 when the Deacs were a #2 seed (thanks to their ACC Regular Season Championship) they were taken to the wire by Tim Smith and East Tennessee State.
Last year Wake was down to Jeff Capel’s Virginia Commonwealth squad for the entire second half and needed some late-game heroics by freshman Chris Paul to sneak out with a victory.
Wake’s early round struggles can be blamed on their coaching staff, namely the aforementioned Mr. Prosser.
The Deacs seemed totally disinterested in playing last night. I mean, I know that Eric Williams is tired from promoting his new rap album, The Massacre, but five field goal attempts? Come on! Justin Gray took that many by the first TV timeout.
And for all Wake's first round troubles, they haven't fared too much better in the second round under Prosser. They lost to Oregon in 2002, Auburn in 2003 and struggled last year with Manhattan.
West Virginia needs to be hot in order to beat the Deacs, but with Wake’s defense and recent offensive woes, don’t be shocked by yet another Demon Deacon early exit.

#3 Gonzaga 74 - #14 Winthrop 64
The Eagles hung tough with Gonzaga for 58 minutes, but some poor free throw shooting, unfavorable whistles from the officials and timely three pointer’s by Gonzaga sealed their fate.
Winthrop’s defense was as good as advertised, but the Eagles just couldn’t hold on for long enough against more bigger, more talented Zags team.

#7 West Virginia 63 - #10 Creighton 61
It’s tough to get mad at a white guy named Nate Funk, particularly when he had 23 points and was the only reason Creighton was in the game. But his ill-conceived three point attempt late in the game, that led to the block, steal and dunk which sent the Blue Jays packing, was pretty awful.
This is the last time I ever pick Creighton in an NCAA Tournament. They seem to screw me ever year. Why do I keep crawling back? They can’t even beat the Devil Rays!

#6 Texas Tech 78 - #11 UCLA 66
Mike Krzyzewski had won 22 NCAA Tournament games between Bobby Knight victories.

South Region
#2 Kentucky 72 - #15 Eastern Kentucky 64
You can’t read too much into first round results. Many great teams have struggled with lesser opponents on the tournament’s opening days and then turned around and advanced to the Final Four.
The 2001 Maryland team, in particular, comes to mind. They should have lost to George Mason in the first round that year thanks to Mason’s 30-year old star, Gulf War vet George Evans. But the Terps held on, and then advanced to the National Semi-Finals where a phantom 4th foul call on Terrence Morris two minutes into the second half sealed the team’s fate.
Kansas also has historically struggled during first round games (Holy Cross, anyone?) in tournament’s where they make a run.
That being said, if you picked Kentucky to go very far in your brackets, I wouldn’t be feeling to comfortable with that pick right about now.
The Wildcats won this game because they were able to exploit Eastern Kentucky’s weakness in the middle. Big men Kelenna Azubuike and Chuck Hayes combined for 32 points and dominated EKU’s frontline players who spent much of the contest in foul trouble.
Patrick Sparks and Rajon Rondo were held in check by the Colonels’ guards (Sparks put up a bagel) and that doesn’t bode well for next round when those two will have to carry the team against a more talented Cincinnati team. But, they are playing Cincinnati, which is like getting spotted eight points at the beginning of the game, thanks to the wizardry of Bob Huggins.
Travis Ford did a good job on Eastern Kentucky’s sideline, in what will likely be his final game at the school. It’s tough to imagine Ford’s name not being mentioned for every coaching vacancy at a mid-major (maybe he can take over for Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s Bruce Pearl, who will no doubt get a big-time job this off-season).

#3 Oklahoma 84 - #14 Niagra 67
OK, how awesome does that TV movie Spring Break Shark Attack look? It really could have used Meredith Baxter-Birney playing the role of a concerned mother, but that casting faux-pas aside, the combination of skin, cheesy special effects, more skin, the prospect of seeing the preview about 153 more times from now until it’s on and the fact that Desperate Housewives isn’t on again makes SBSA appointment viewing this Sunday.
But even if Spring Break Shark Attack takes its spot next to I Know My First Name is Steven and anything starring Judith Light in the pantheon of made-for-TV movies, the telepic still won’t be half as awesome as Calvin Murphy’s purple suit.

#7 Cincinnati 76 - #10 Iowa 64
Bob Huggins celebrated the victory by drinking and singing “The Alphabet Song” at a karaoke bar.

#6 Utah 60 - #11 UTEP 54
With 4:00 to go in this game, I was feeling pretttty darn good about predicting Utah to go to the Elite Eight. They had just blown a 13 point lead and Andrew Bogut was the only one on the team doing anything offensively, even though UTEP was doing a fairly good job of keeping him in check.
I knew I was in deep trouble with the Utah pick when The Wolfman told me he had the Utes going that far too. The Wolfman, you’ll remember, is the same guy who had Southern Illinois in the Regional Finals last year.

Predictions: 13-3

NCAA Tournament Predictions

As current NBA player and former Wake Forest star Darius Songaila once said to The Wolfman, "let's cut to chase."
So, without further audieu, here are Chris's Sports Blog predictions for all 63 NCAAA Tournament games.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

1st Round
#1 Illinois vs. #16 Farleigh-Dickinson
The last time Farleigh-Dickinson was in the NCAA Tournament was 2001, when the Knights played eventual-champion Duke in a first round #1/#16 match-up.
Does this mean Illinois is destined to win this National Championship this year? Nah, it just means that the 2001 Farleigh-Dickinson team knows how much of a tool Mike Dunleavy Jr. is first-hand.
Pick: Illinois

#8 Texas vs. #9 Nevada
Virginia is interested in Texas coach Rick Barnes to fill their head coaching vacancy and Barnes, apparently, is interested as well.
If the ‘Hoos are looking for a coach to lead the team back into the NCAA Tournament, then Barnes is a great choice. But if Craig Littlepage wants a coach that can not only lead the team to the Big Dance, but actually win there, he can do a lot better than Barnes and his 11-12 NCAA Tournament record.
Barnes, like his football coaching counterpart at UT, is a great program builder, but never seems to do well in the postseason.
The Longhorns will flame out again early this year, as usual, but unlike in year’s past, this time won’t be entirely Barnes’ fault.
The absences of P.J. Tucker and LaMarcus Aldridge (I think more people should have names that begin with La and then lead into a regular name. Think of the possibilities: LaFrank, LaJoey, LaLaVar and, my favorite, LaJamesOn) will cripple Texas against Nick Fazekas and Nevada.
Pick: Nevada

#5 Alabama vs. #12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee
You can include me among the people who were outraged when underage Wisconsin-Milwaukee players celebrated their Horizon League Championship by spraying each other with champagne. I was shocked and appalled. I mean, come on guys. Why were you using champagne when you live in the town that produces the world’s greatest beer, Milwaukee’s Best Ice?
Pick: Alabama

#4 Boston College vs. #13 Pennsylvania
I’ve been steering the BC hatewagon since they burst onto the national scene back in December and flipped on the cruise control during the Eagles 4-4 finish to the season (after a 20-0 start). A few weeks back we zoomed past the busted-up bandwagon for Al Skinner’s team, asked where Troy Bell had disappeared to and then got back in the left lane en route to a 1st round upset. The hatewagon’s plans changed when the selection committee paired the Eagles with Penn, an undersized team that won’t much up well with Craig Smith and company. So, I had to fill up the hatewagon with enough Hatorade to get through Saturday, when BC’s season will end.
Pick: Boston College

#6 LSU vs. #11 Alabama-Birmingham
Every year a team that had a surprising run in the previous NCAA Tournament is predicted to duplicate their postseason success the following season. UAB, a team that advanced to the Elite Eight in 2004, is this year’s repeat-Cinderella candidate, but will most likely follow the leads of other schools that have followed up recent magical Tournament runs with 1st round exits like Valparaiso, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, Marquette and Butler.
Pick: LSU

#3 Arizona vs. #14 Utah State
Not even Lute Olson can blow this one… can he?
Pick: Arizona

#7 Southern Illinois vs. #10 St. Mary’s
Last year the Salukis suffered a disappointing first round loss at the buzzer to Alabama. The feel of that loss must have lingered like the smell of burnt popcorn during the offseason, and that alone is enough to put SIU into the second round.
That’s why I’m picking them. Well, that, and I know absolutely nothing about St. Mary’s except that it is the alma mater of ex-NBA’er Brian Shaw and this guy.
Pick: Southern Illinois

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #15 Southeastern Lousiana
I thought Southwest-Central Lousiana had the best season of all Louisiana directional schools, but, as they say, that’s why they play the game.
Pick: Oklahoma State

2nd Round
#1 Illinois vs. #9 Nevada
If this game takes place, it could be a lot close than people will think. (If Texas beats Nevada, Illinois will wipe the floor with them).
Nevada’s defense was the best in the WAC, by far, and the ‘Pack’s frontline of Fazekas and Kevinn “Not a Typo” Pinkney could give James Augustine fits.
But, Illinois is the pick and will deny the Wolfpack a second straight Sweet 16 berth.
Pick: Illinois

#4 Boston College vs. #5 Alabama
Prediciting who will emerge from this Cleveland mini-bracket was surprisingly difficult. Every year there is one four-team section that is tough to project because neither of the two top seeds are all that impressive. Alabama and BC fit that M.O. this year. Both were teams I had pegged as possible first round upset victims before the draw was announced, but when I saw that they were due to play each other in the second, I had to abandon that idea because I don’t want to screw up an entire segment of the region.
So, in these cases it’s best to forego picking an upset and picking a boring old chalk match-up like Alabama-BC (get your TiVos ready).
By the way, I think I’m going to trademark “hatewagon”.
Hey… don’t judge me. If Pat Riley can trademark “three-peat” and Donald Trump can do the same with “your fired”, then there’s a place in American lexicon for “hatewagon”. And if you disagree, maybe you’ll find yourself in a prime seat on my first nationwide hating-tour.
Pick: Alabama

#3 Arizona vs. #6 LSU
LSU’s Glen Davis (whom Peter Angelos will likely trade Miguel Tejada, Sammy Sosa, Javy Lopez and Jorge Julio for) is so big that he’ll make Channing Frye look like Julius Hodge on a hunger strike.
Lute Olsen will once again prove that his 1997 NCAA title was as much of an anomaly as Marisa Tomei’s Oscar win.
Pick: LSU

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Southern Illinois
The Wolfman would like me to tell you that, despite picking Southern Illinois to go to the Elite Eight last year (they lost in the first round), he still finished 100 points ahead of me in our pool.
I would like to tell you that The Wolfman once attended a house party totally naked.
Pick: Oklahoma State

Sweet 16
#1 Illinois vs. #5 Alabama
Question: When’s the last time a team has beat the #1 seed in its region in two straight Tournaments?
Answer: I don’t know, that’s why I’m asking.
Pick: Illinois

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #6 LSU
I’m tempted to pick LSU in this game because I’m actually in love with Tiger freshman Glen Davis. But, since LSU could easily drop in the first round to UAB, I’ll stick with the team I picked last year too. And I’m not actually in love with him.
Well, maybe a little.
Pick: Oklahoma State

Regional Final
#1 Illinois vs. #2 Oklahoma State
Coaches can say all they want about how they take the Tournament “one game at a time”, but you know Bruce Weber and Eddie Sutton have looked ahead to this possible Regional Final. Interestingly, both coaches probably believe that their team will match-up well with their opponent.
Illinois’ Achilles Heel is their frontcourt play. James Augustine is merely competent in the middle; he lacks the strength to establish himself in the post. But, luckily for Illinois, they won’t see a dominating big man in their region, unless LSU advances to the Elite Eight.
OSU isn’t as dependent on its backcourt; senior Joey Graham is big enough to play inside but athletic enough to roam around the perimeter as well. Like Illinois, the Cowboys are vulnerable when they play a big man (Wayne Simien dropped 62 points in two meetings against OSU this season), but are dangerous in a shoot-out, which is exactly what this match-up would be.
I like Oklahoma State in this game for two reasons:
1) Illinois’ three point defense is suspect, meaning John Lucas will have plenty of opportunities to hit shots. I love the way Lucas plays and have a feeling he’s the kind of kid who could put a team on his back Danny Manning-style en route to a title.
2) The lack of competition in the Big Ten will hurt Illinois late in a close game. It’s not just coincidence that ACC teams always preform well in the Tournament. Teams from the conference are battle-tested during the season and have usually been in every game situation by March. Conversely, the few close games Illinois has played this year were caused by the Illini blowing a late lead (vs. Iowa, at Ohio State) or erasing a halftime deficit (at Purdue, at Michigan). They have yet to play in a contest where the game is close for a long stretch of time. Just ask the 1991 UNLV team how different it is playing in a close game when the pressure is high.
Midwest Champion: Oklahoma State

West Region (Albuquerque)

#1 Washington vs. #16 Montana
I wonder if the Unabomber roots for Montana?
Pick: Washington

#8 Pacific vs. #9 Pittsburgh
Pacific starts two Swedish guys named Marko and Jasko. I guess that explains why Abba always kicked Fleetwood Mac’s ass when they played four-on-four.
Pick: Pacific

#5 Georgia Tech vs. #12 George Washington
Q: What was GW’s reward for finishing first in their A-10 division, winning the conference tournament and beating Michigan State and Maryland (before John Gilchrist quit on the team)?
A: Receiving the lowest seed of all 34 at-large teams, getting a #12 seed, which was higher than powerhouses like Northern Iowa (11), Minnesota (8), Iowa (10) and N.C. State (10) got.
Karl Hobbs and his Colonials deserved better, but now will probably face an early exit, thus depriving the nation a chance to fall in love with Pops Mensah-Bonsu. His name is Pops for crap’s sake. Couldn’t we have given GW a #10 in West Virginia’s region and let Pops play on the weekend? Couldn’t we just have given Pops a chance? A chance! That’s all I was lookin’ for!
Pick: Georgia Tech

#4 Louisville vs. #13 Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisville has lost four games all season and received a #4 seed. Kansas has lost five games since Valentine’s Day and earned a #3 seed.
What an injustice. Maybe the selection committee consulted the Robert Blake jury on some of the seedings.
Pick: Louisville

#6 Texas Tech vs. #11 UCLA
There’s an outside chance that I’ll be picking teams coached by Lute Olsen, Bobby Knight and Bob Huggins to all win in the first round.
I expect my brackets to spontaneously burst into flames any second now.
Pick: Texas Tech

#3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Winthrop
Any school that sounds like the name of one of the Duke brothers from Trading Places is alright by me.
Pick: Gonzaga

#7 West Virginia vs. #10 Creighton
The Mountaineers won ten straight games to open the season, then lost six of their next seven. They turned it around by winning ten of their last 14 contests, but a late-season loss to Seton Hall hurt WVA’s chances at an at-large berth. It took two Big East Tourney wins to get John Beilein’s team in, and now people are looking at them as a sleeper out of the West.
Not me. I’ve been burned picking Creighton before, but you’ll excuse me if I can’t get excited about a team that depends on a guy named Pittsnogle.
Pick: Creighton

#2 Wake Forest vs. #15 Chattanooga
In his pre-game pep-talk, Mocs coach John Shulman better tell his players that when Chris Paul is around, they should stop and cover their Nooga’s.
Pick: Wake Forest

2nd Round
#1 Washington vs. #8 Pacific
Originally I picked Pacific to win this game; not because I don’t trust the Huskies, but because it’s been so long since I’ve seen any team named “Washington” have any degree of success in the postseason.
Pick: Washington

#4 Louisville vs. #5 Georgia Tech
This will be the most anticipated 2nd round match-up in recent memory.
Louisville is an enigma wrapped in red They finished 29-4 out of Conference USA, including wins in 18 of their last 19 and feature three players (Taquan Dean, Larry O’Bannon and all-world forward Francisco Garcia) who average over 14 points a game.
However, Louisville hasn’t beat any team this season that is currently in the Top 25 (they knocked of Cincinnati and Charlotte, both of whom were ranked when they played, but aren’t now) and wasn’t tested too much in C-USA.
Georgia Tech, after their run in the ACC Tournament, picked up a lot of bandwagon members, but I’m still suspect of the Yellow Jackets.
Luke Schenscher has regressed this season, losing the much-needed aggressiveness he found during last year’s title game run.
Obviously the injuries of B.J. Elder and Jeremis Smith derailed Tech in the middle of the season, but they were at full strength in the ACC’s and looked like the team that started out the season ranked in the AP Top 5.
Jarrett Jack is playing the best basketball of his career (If he didn’t play in a conference with Chris Paul, Raymond Felton and guys on Duke, Jack would be considered one of the best point guards in the country. As it is, he barely made second-team All-ACC), but that wasn’t enough to cover for Will Bynum’s miserable game in the ACC Final.
Tech can’t afford to have Elder or Bynum hit a cold-snap in their second round match-up, or else they’ll be returning to Atlanta a lot earlier than last season.
Pick: Louisville

#3 Gonzaga vs. #6 Texas Tech
Bob Knight has said he detests playing games at high altitudes because it gives some teams an unfair advantage.
Luckily for Knight, his Red Raiders won’t have to worry about the thin air of Albuquerque.
Pick: Gonzaga

#2 Wake Forest vs. #10 Creighton
Chris Paul won’t let Skip Prosser blow this one.
Pick: Wake Forest

Sweet 16
#1 Washington vs. #4 Louisville
I, along with the rest of the free world, also have Washington losing in the Sweet 16. But this could be a St. Joe’s situation where the Huskies defy low expectations and make a solid run into the Elite Eight.
Pick: Louisville

#2 Wake Forest vs. #3 Gonzaga
Whichever coach loses this game will begin to hear whispers of “can’t win in March”. When I close my eyes and picture the outcome of this game, it’s tough to imagine Wake Forest winning. After all, they lost last year in the Sweet 16 to a mid-major dynamo.
The focus will be on the guards in this game – Derek Ralvio vs. Chris Paul, but the battle inside (Ronny Turiaf vs. Eric Williams) will decide the game.
I’ll pick Wake, but with caution.
Pick: Wake Forest

Regional Final
#2 Wake Forest vs. #4 Louisville
If this game ends up happening, I’d probably pick Louisville. But since the Cardinals could easily go down to Georgia Tech in the second round, I’ll stick with my Deacs to represent the Westside in the Final Four.
West Champion: Wake Forest

East Region (Syracuse)

#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Oakland
Billy Beane is good, but he’s not that good.
Pick: North Carolina

#8 Minnesota vs. #9 Iowa State
Even Bill Raftery would have a hard time getting up for this enthralling contest.
Pick: Iowa State

#5 Villanova vs. #12 New Mexico
Every one of New Mexico’s starters average ten or more points a game, led by super-forward Danny Granger who’s as good on the defensive end as he is on the offensive.
But, the Lobo five won’t be enough to handle Randy Foye, Curtis Sumpter and Allan Ray, who can shoot teams out of the building (just ask Kansas).
Excluding a 15-point loss to Syracuse back in February, Nova’s other six losses are by a total of 17 points.
Pick: Villanova

#4 Florida vs. #13 Ohio
W’s two favorite states go head-to-head in the Battleground Showdown. CBS will call the game for Ohio midway through the second half, but will then retract their projection after a furious Gator rally narrows the gap. A premature concession speech by Bobcats coach Tim O’Shea will cause CBS to name Florida the winner sometime early Saturday morning, but after 24 hours of legal wrangling, it will take a Sunday vote by Sportscenter’s ‘Fact or Fiction’ panelists to determine, once and for all, the game’s final victor.
Pick: Florida

#6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Northern Iowa
Is anybody else surprised that the dude on Wisconsin who looks like he tried out for The Beatles is still in college? I could have sworn he was on the team when Wisconsin went to the Final Four back in 2000. That guy is like a midwestern version of Jason Kapono.
Pick: Northern Iowa

#3 Kansas vs. #14 Bucknell
Don’t be shocked if Bucknell springs the upset.
I’m serious.
Pick: Kansas

#7 Charlotte vs. #10 North Carolina State
Bobby Lutz’s ‘70s porn-star mustache hasn’t helped the 49ers in recent Tournaments, but maybe his previous experience makes him uniquely qualified to give Julius Hodge tips on how to ice his boys after receiving a direct crotch-punch.
Pick: North Carolina State

#2 Connecticut vs. #15 Central Florida
Not even Daunte Culpepper could help the Golden Knights in this one.
Pick: Connecticut

2nd Round
#1 North Carolina vs. #9 Iowa State
It’s 12:05 on Thursday and I’m filling in all the gaps here. Bear with me.
Pick: North Carolina

#4 Florida vs. #5 Villanova
You have to like a team that features Yannick Noah’s son, but I can’t get on-board with the Gators mainly because UF has lost to lower seeded teams in each of the four tournaments since their 2000 National Championship apperance.
Pick: Villanova

#3 Kansas vs. #11 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa took eventual runner-up Georgia Tech to the wire in last year’s first-round. But two straight upsets is a little much to hope for this season.
Pick: Kansas

#2 Connecticut vs. #7 Charlotte
The key to Uconn’s run will be the effectiveness of guard Rashad Anderson, who missed seven games late in the season with a skin abscess on his leg.
Anderson returned for the Big East Tournament, whereupon his Huskies were promptly run out of the Garden by Syracuse.
Charlotte shouldn’t give Connecticut any problems, but if the Huskies struggle here, it could be a harbinger of things to come.
Pick: Connecticut

Sweet 16
#1 North Carolina vs. #5 Villanova
Here’s why I don’t think UNC is a shoo-in for the Final Four:
1) Raymond Felton struggles in games where he’s defended by a quick point guard.
2) UNC forgets about Sean May for large stretches of time.
3) Rashad McCants is a headcase.
4) Roy Williams is one or two heartbreaking losses from getting to Lucci/Mickelson status. And who doesn’t want to see that?
Pick: North Carolina

#2 Connecticut vs. #3 Kansas
Kansas hasn’t been ranked behind Uconn in a single AP poll this season. So don’t call this an upset.
Pick: Kansas

Regional Final
#1 North Carolina vs. #3 Kansas
The one thing that UNC would have going for it in this game is that there would only be 48 hours of hype before tip-off, which is good for Roy Williams because if he had to think about this game for a week, he’d be liable to go McCants on his team.
The Roy Williams against his old team story-line would dominate the pre-game headlines, but UNC-Kansas would also feature two of college basketballs’ three winningest programs and a front-line match-up for the ages in Sean May vs. Wayne Simien.
Despite all the hype, the Tar Heels have not performed well in big games this season, losing in their only meeting against Wake Forest and twice struggling mightily against an inferior Duke team. A regional final match-up against their coaches old team is about as big as it gets, and I don’t think UNC has the mental toughness to withstand the heat.
They might be the most talented team in the country, but the last time the most talented team won the title was back in 2002.
East Champion: Kansas

South Region (Austin)

#1 Duke vs. #16 Delaware State
How much money would you pay to see a Delaware State win? Realistically, I think I’d pay $800 for such a pleasure. And I’d throw in $200 more to see J.J. Redick cry himself to sleep in Lee Melchionni’s arms.
Pick: Duke

#8 Stanford vs. #9 Mississippi State
Normally this is where I rip on Mike Montgomery and his poor Tournament coaching performances, but Montgomery’s not with Stanford anymore so I’ll just rip on his decision-making ability (Golden State? Not even Tony Bennent would decide to coach them) and ability (it looks like the old adage is true: Overrated in college, overpaid in the pros).
Pick: Mississippi State

#5 Michigan State vs. #12 Old Dominion
Even though I knew Manhattan would beat Florida last year, I jumped off that upset-train because it was the trendy pick, and if you’ve read this blog for any amount of time, you know I hate trends just as much as I hate guys named J.J.
ODU is the trendy upset pick this time, and I’m going to pick it, even though MSU always seems to do well in the Tournament.
Pick: Old Dominion

#4 Syracuse vs. #13 Vermont
Of all the poor seedings (Washington, Louisville, George Washington), Vermont’s is the most despicable. All the Catamounts did was everything they could in order to impress the selection committee this year.
They traveled to Kansas (where they almost won) and North Carolina, went 16-2 in their conference and won their conference tournament. They had an RPI of 21 and finished 4-3 against the RPI Top 50.
Essentially, Vermont did everything that was asked of them this season, and more, and was given a pitiful #13 seed for their trouble.
Way to go NCAA, that’s a great message to send to small-major teams from one-bid conferences: No matter what you do, who you play and how many wins you get, you can’t get any higher than a #13 seed. Iowa can lose 11 games and still grab a #10. UAB can go 0-5 against the Top 50 and snag an #11. But one-bid conferences are a disgrace to the NCAA and don’t deserve to be in the Tournament, so we’re going to spit on Vermont’s season and disgrace them and the America East conference and all other one-bid leagues by awarding a very good team with a very bad seed.
Shame on you.
Vermont should be a #9 or #10 seed and have the opportunity to win a first round game. They still could, but Hakim Warrick will likely be too much for Taylor Coppenrath and company.
Pick: Syracuse

#6 Utah vs. #11 UTEP
Bogut, me and the Three Tenors could win this game.
Pick: Utah

#3 Oklahoma vs. #14 Niagra
I wonder if Calvin Murhpy will be in attendance. If he is, I hope he reserved an entire section of seats so he can bring all his illegitimate children to watch Niagra’s first NCAA appearance since Murphy himself led them to the dance in 1970.
Pick: Oklahoma

#7 Cincinnati vs. #10 Iowa
What a quandry. Do I pick a Bob Huggins team in March (which is like picking an Ashton Kutche movie on Oscar night) or take an Iowa team that has lost its best player and is now forced to start five guys from Iowa.
This goes against all my Tournament tenets, but here goes:
Pick: Cincinnati

#2 Kentucky vs. #15 Eastern Kentucky
For some reason this game, and not Pacific/Pittsburgh will be the first Tournament game broadcast in the D.C. area. I guess somebody at WUSA has a little crush on a certain Kelenna Azubuike.
Pick: Kentucky

2nd Round
#1 Duke vs. #9 Mississippi State
I like how Shavlik Randolph went from being a McDonald’s All-American in high school to being proof that Coach K is an amazing coach because he can win with a stiff like Randolph in the lineup.
Pick: Duke

#4 Syracuse vs. #12 Old Dominion
They might not beat Syracuse, but I love their root beer.
Pick: Syracuse

#3 Oklahoma vs. #6 Utah
The Sooners rely on Kevin Bookout and Taj Gray for a bulk of their scoring, but with Andrew Bogut clogging up the middle, Oklahoma will have to find points for other sources.
It won’t happen.
Pick: Utah

#2 Kentucky vs. #7 Cincinnati
The next step for Bob Huggins is getting a DUI whilst dressed Alex P. Keaton.
Pick: Kentucky

Sweet 16
#1 Duke vs. #4 Syracuse
Hakim Warrick and Craig Forth will occupy Shelden Williams, and a cold J.J. Redick will shoot his way out of the Tournament.
Pick: Syracuse

#2 Kentucky vs. #6 Utah
Kentucky struggled against LSU’s big men in the SEC Tournament, mainly due to their inability to switch out of their man-to-man coverage.
The Wildcats won’t be able to contain Bogut, who will lead the Utes to their first Regional Final since 1998, when they went to the Championship Game.
Pick: Utah

Regional Final
#4 Syracuse vs. #6 Utah
Every year in Tony Kornheiser’s NCAA Tournament preview, Jim Boeheim predicts the winners, and does am amazing job, usually getting it right. This year he hedged a bit when predicting who would come out of the South, which is good enough for me.
(In 2003, when Syracuse won, Boeheim didn’t make a pick for the first time in 20 years.)
South Winner: Syracuse

Final Four

#2 Oklahoma State vs. #2 Wake Forest
The Deacs haven’t been in the Final Four since 1962. Just like Maryland in 2001, they’ll get out to an early lead in this one, struggle late and spend an offseason wondering what might have been.
Then, Chris Paul will return for his junior season and the Deacs will cut down the nets next April in Indianapolis.
Pick: Oklahoma State

#1 North Carolina vs. #4 Syracuse
In some pools I have Kansas in this game instead of UNC, but either way, whoever comes out of the East will beat Syracuse and advance to the National Championship game.
Pick: North Carolina

2005 National Championship
#1 North Carolina vs. #2 Oklahoma State
In a battle of “close but no cigar” coaches, Sutton, on the strength of a sublime effort from John Lucas III, wins his first title over Roy Williams and the Tar Heels.
National Champion: Oklahoma State

Bracket Thoughts

- How depressing must it be for all the broadcasters and analysts at ESPN to be forced to watch the entire NCAA Tournament on CBS after spending the entire season as the main network of college basketball?
It’s like dating a girl for a long time, experiencing the highs and lows of a relationship, finally getting engaged and then on the way down the aisle on your wedding day you get cold-cocked by Clark Kellogg (wearing a better looking tux) who replaces you for the ceremony, reception and honeymoon.
Not only does ESPN suffer the indignity of listening to Gus Johnson call a regional final, but they also are stuck broadcasting the Women’s NCAA Tournament, which is like taking care of your pseudo-wife’s ugly bridesmaid while she and Clark are off gallivanting in Barbados.
I guess it’s for the best that ESPN doesn’t broadcast the NCAA Tournament. The mere thought of Dick Vitale calling a Final Four game involving Duke would probably cause my TV to jump off its stand.

- From a purely logistical standpoint, Wake Forest should be livid over its treatment from the NCAA Selection Committee.
First, Wake’s ACC quarterfinal loss to N.C. State was treated as an ordinary defeat by the committee, despite the fact that Wake’s All-American point guard was in street clothes for the game. Had Paul’s absence been taken into account, Wake would have likely received the #1 seed they deserved. Instead, Duke, a team that finished a full two games behind Wake Forest in the ACC, leapfrogged the Deacs for the top seed and the ever-important first-round trip to Charlotte.
Some say that the committee shouldn’t have given Wake Forest a break because Paul was suspended, not injured. But those that say that are probably the same idiots that voted for J.J. Redick as National Player of the Year and call Shelden Williams “The Landlord” without any hint of sarcasm.
It doesn’t matter why Paul didn’t play against State, it just matters that he didn’t.
Chris Paul played in each of Wake’s first 30 games and will play in every other game Wake has until their season concludes. He is clearly the team’s most important player, which became absolutely clear during Wake’s loss to the Wolfpack. That Chris Paul sat out that game because he played patty-cake with Julius Hodges’ marbles is no different than if he had been out with a bum ankle.
Either way, his absence clearly effected the game’s result. The selection committee needed to factor that into their seeding process, but didn’t, most likely because of the fact that Paul was serving a suspension.
It’s not the committee’s job to be college basketball’s morality police though. They exist to best arrange the field of 65, and that includes making sure the four most deserving teams receive #1 seeds. They failed in that job this year, and will know it when Washington loses before the Regional Final.
Wake also got jobbed when they were sent to Cleveland for the first two rounds and then (if they should advance) to Albuquerque for the Regionals. No other #1 or #2 seed will have to travel that far to their respective sites.
But, like I said on Monday, Wake has no reason to complain since they were put in a winnable bracket with teams that they match up very well against (up-tempo teams with defensive weaknesses).

- I truly hope last night’s NIT home loss to Holy Cross (!) will, once and for all, shut up all the Notre Dame fans (and Dickie V) who loudly complained about the Irish’s NCAA Tournament “snub”.
Go ahead and break out the excuses for ND’s loss - “the team couldn’t get up for an NIT game knowing that they should be in the NCAA’s” or “the turn-around was so quick that they couldn’t scout the Crusaders” or “the players were still temporarily blinded from staring directly at Digger Phelps’ ties” – but the best way to deal with a Tournament snub is to go far in the NIT and Notre Dame didn’t even have a second-half lead against a team from the Patriot League.
The Fighting Irish were handled on their own court by a Holy Cross squad that was probably more deserving of an at-large bid than them, and now will be left to ponder what might have been if they had won just one more game down the stretch (most likely a first-round loss to Creighton), what the hell happened to Chris Thomas’ career (I think he had an acute case of Gilchristosis) and why on earth they hired a Dukie to be their head coach (Quin Snyder, Mike Brey, Tommy Amaker, Jeff Capel: All Coach K disciples, all coaching in the NIT - except Amaker, whose Michigan team didn’t even make it that far).
Well at least the football team is good in South Bend.

- I know a guy who picked Southern Illinois to make it to the Elite Eight last year.
On the surface this might sound surprising, but when you consider that this is the same guy who was once asked to leave a girl’s dorm room because, “his hair was too wild” and also had to go to the Winston-Salem police station one night in order to bail out a friend whilst dressed as Alex P. Keaton, it becomes less and less startling.
Back to the APK incident for a moment; once at the police station, a sergeant asked him where he was coming from, to which he replied “a costume party”. When the cops asked him what he was dressed as, he had to explain his outfit to them, which he did whilst running his hands through his hair and saying “uhhh, Mallory” in a high-pitched voice.
He also founded the fun way and once dated A. Rod’s niece.
This year, I am greatly anticipating getting my first peek at his bracket. Who will his sleeper be in 2005? I’ve heard him mention Louisiana-Lafayette, or maybe he’s a Taylor Coppenrath man. Too bad Virginia is not in the Tournament, since this guy is a sucker for white guys with thin mustaches, a la Jason Cain.
Sorry for the brief bio, but gentleman I am speaking of has pointed out that I’ve mentioned his So. Illinois pick at every conceivable opportunity, so I thought I’d do it again.
Who is this mystery man?
You guessed it folks… It’s not Frank Stallone, it’s The Wolfman.

- Almost every other bracket thought I’ve had today relates to tomorrow’s entry when I’ll give my game-by-game predictions for the entire Tournament.
Come on back early Thursday for a breakdown of all 63 games as the Internet’s most comprehensive NCAA Tournament basketball preview goes out with a bang (and a J.J. Redick whimper).

Bracket Tips

Opinions on how to fill out your NCAA brackets are like embarrassing drunken stories – everybody, except the Amish, has one.
The problem with bracket tips is that everyone claims to be an expert because they’ve read a one-paragraph summary of Oakland’s season and watched the ESPN Bracketology special. Everybody has can’t-miss teams and potential sleepers today, but by Friday they’ll have forgotten about them and jumped on another bandwagon.
In reality, nobody can predict the NCAA Tournament with any real degree of accuracy and that’s what makes the thing so damn fun.
To be successful with your brackets you don’t need to read every single statistic and analyze game-film, you just need to combine a little bit of knowledge with a little bit of analysis and then hope you step in a big pile of lucky.
Go on any one of the three major sports sites on the Internet (ESPN, SI and Sportsline) and you’ll be deluged with information ranging from the size of Montana’s center to the three-point percentage of Creighton’s backcourt. Just like with any piece of info, you’ll be able to skew the data anyway you choose. If you want to believe that Ohio can beat Florida, you’ll likely find a way to justify your prediction. If not, it won’t be difficult to rationalize selecting Florida instead.
Sifting through all the data, info, predictions, analysis and stories is a daunting task. How can you separate the good tips from the bad ones, the pertinent info from the worthless? You can’t, that’s why you should keep your research to a minimum. Identify the best teams in the major conferences and at least three or four mid-major upstarts and go from there.
Listen to what experts have to say, but, as you’ve learned from an early age, don’t believe everything you read (or hear). This week everyone will say that there’s no way a #2 seed will lose in the 1st round this year (as if those monumental upsets are ever expected), or how Illinois is a lock for the Finals (just like Kentucky was last year).
One analyst will guarantee that Wake Forest will come out of the West (I am still refusing to call the regions by their location names) and another will be just as sure that Louisville will come out of that region.
But nobody really knows, and therein lies the beauty of March Madness: Anything can happen, and usually does.
A #2 seed could easily lose, it’s happened four times before. And there is no such thing as a lock for the Final Four as Kentucky has proven the past two seasons.
Did anybody think that Coppin State would beat South Carolina a few years back? How many people really predicted that Syracuse would cut the nets down in 2003? I’m sure there is a lot of people that claim they did, but few that are actually telling the truth.
The point is, if being knowledgeable about college basketball translated into NCAA pool success, then Digger Phelps and Andy Katz would predict all 63 of the games correctly. Instead, both analysts were in the 20th percentile on ESPN.com’s Tournament Challenge last year, finishing behind people that couldn’t name the North Carolina coach if you gave them the “R” and the “O”.
It’s a cliché, but in so many office pools the secretary who has never watched college basketball and thinks that Gonzaga is the new Viagra competitor often wins.
Why? Because there is no right way to make the picks. I’ve watched a lot of college basketball this season, probably more than 95% of the people I will be competing against in various pools. Yet, I’ll probably finish up somewhere in the middle of the pack.
Why?
Because the only thing predictable about the NCAA Tournament is its unpredictability.
And that’s what makes March Madness so wonderful. If each of the four top seeds advanced to the Final Four every season, filling out brackets and watching the 1st and 2nd round games wouldn’t be as fun. The one-and-done format of the Tournament lends itself to high drama, stunning upsets and intense pressure of every single possession. And that, in turn, makes filling out brackets an exercise in guesswork, at best.
With that word of warning, I now will offer some tips on how to have a great looking bracket on Thursday morning turn into a mediocre bracket by Thursday night.

- Be wary of picking too many big upsets. Me giving out this advice is like Courtney Love being the keynote speaker at a Just Say No! rally, but this year I plan to tone down my upset zeal. Really, I do.
In years past I always picked a lot of shockers. Sometimes it works; I remember the glorious run of the Kent State Golden Flashes to the Elite Eight in 2002 and basking in the praises of my peers for such a clairvoyant pick. But for every Kent State on my resume, there are about 40 Michigan States, a #10 seed I thought would make a deep run in that same 2002 tourney, but ended up being out of the tournament at 2:30 on the first Thursday. The Wolfman knows what I’m talking about; he had Southern Illinois in the Elite Eight last year. They lost in the first round.
You’re better off having a few upsets early (#12 over #5 has happened in 13 of the past 14 years) and then picking a sleeper team that falls in the #6 to #10 range to make it to the Sweet 16, but nothing more than that. Look at it this way: If you pick a big upset and it doesn’t pan out, you’re brackets will be crippled. If the upset does happen, it won’t kill you since nobody else in your pool is likely to pick it anyway.
Keep the upsets to a minimum and choose your Sweet 16 teams carefully, peppering in a #10 seed (there always seems to be a #10 over #2 upset) along with a mostly chalk bracket. This leads me to the next tip…

- In the later rounds, ignore seedings. Washington is a good team, even if they didn’t deserve a #1 seed. But in a game against Wake Forest or Gonzaga on a neutral floor, the Huskies would probably be the underdog.
Wake finished 13-3 in the brutal ACC and was ranked in the top five of the polls for most of the season. Washington, on the other hand, hovered outside the top 10 during the year and suffered four losses in the mediocre Pac-10. Both are great teams, but a Wake win wouldn’t be considered an upset, and you shouldn’t look at it as one.
A handy rule is, if the seeding difference is three or less, an upset it’s not, I must profess.
(Sorry, I read Horton Hears a Hoo to some kindergartner's earlier.) Kansas has spent the entire season ranked higher than Connecticut, yet they are a #3 seed in the East, compared to UConn’s #2. If Kansas wins, some might consider it an upset, but in actuality, it will be one good team beating another.
This is similar to the next rule…

- Don’t be scared of picking numerical upsets, particularly in first round 8/9 and 7/10 games. A few years back Maryland, as a #5 seed, played College of Charleston (#12) in the first round. At the time Maryland was ranked #22 in the nation while Charleston was #14 in the polls. This is an extreme example (CoC won, mainly because Gary Williams spent the entire week complaining about the match-up), but oftentimes you’ll find 10 or 11 seeds who are more highly regarded than the 6 and 7 seeds they are playing.
If N.C. State had played Charlotte two months ago, a 49ers win would have been considered an upset. On Thursday, a State win would get that distinction, even though the teams are evenly matched. Don’t fall into that seeding trap.

- Pick three out of the four #1 seeds to make it to the Elite Eight. This is usually a pretty safe bet, even though it didn’t happen last year (Kentucky and overrated Stanford were knocked off before the Regional Finals). But, from 1997 to 2003 there was only one year when less than three top seeds advanced to the final eight.

- Buck conventional wisdom. Let’s tie this tip into the last one. Washington, like St. Joe’s last year, has become everyone’s favorite bracket punching bag. On ESPN.com 68% of people believe that Washington won’t even see the second weekend. This is reminiscent of what happened to St. Joe’s. But, the Hawks showed they were worthy of their lofty ranking and came within a Jameer Nelson jumper of advancing to the Final Four.
Think of the advantages if you pick Washington to go to the Final Four and they end up making it. You’ll have a huge advantage in your pool since everybody else probably will have them losing to Georgia Tech or Louisville.
It’s funny – if Washington was a #3 seed in this region and Wake and Gonzaga moved up a seed each, the Huskies would likely be considered a sleeper. But because a lot of people are turned off by their high seed, Lorenzo Romar’s team is thought of as overrated.
That won’t matter once the ball is tipped. Washington has a good a chance as any to make it to St. Louis. If you pick them to make it, you could find yourself rolling in the dough Indecent Proposal-style in three short weeks.

- Conventional wisdom is a good thing. The prohibitive favorites for the 2000, 2001 and 2002 tournaments were Michigan State, Duke and Maryland. I don’t need to tell you who won those three tournaments.
Last year, most analysts believed that Connecticut was the team to beat if Emeka Okafor’s back held up. It did and Uconn won their second championship in six seasons.
There’s a reason why Illinois and North Carolina are the favorites this year: Because they are two of the best teams in the tournament.
My point: Don’t get cute with these picks. Illinois is 32-1 for a reason. UNC and Wake didn’t win over 13 ACC games by accident. They’re great teams. Even if you don’t believe in the invincibility of Illinois (like me) or think that UNC’s defense makes them vulnerable (like me), the first two rounds aren’t the time to test that theory. Play it safe and move those two to the Elite Eight, at the very least.

- Put at least one sleeper into the Final Four. Georgia Tech (#3 seed) in 2004, Syracuse and Marquette (both #3) in 2003, Indiana (#5) in 2002, Maryland (#3) in 2001 and North Carolina and Wisconsin (both #8) in 2000 are recent examples. Arizona, Louisville, Villanova and Syracuse are just a few of the mid-seeded teams that could easily find themselves in St. Louis in early April.

- Beware of trendy picks. Trendiness is for suckers and Sarah-Jessica Parker. I have been espousing the virtues of a unique offshoot of anti-trend philosophy since I began this blog 14 months ago, and my theory was proven correct this year in the NFL when I told you to stay away from the bandwagons of the Seahawks, Saints and Kevan Barlow at the beginning of the season.
The NCAA Tournament is a little different. Trendy teams tend to be highly seeded, and I’m obviously not going to tell you to stay away from the pink tie of the basketball world, Illinois (by the way, I started the whole pink tie craze when I was 14. Now I can’t wear my signature neckwear without looking like a tool. I wore one a few weeks ago and some broad said, “ooh, those ties are so in right now” to which I responded, “that’s ‘cause I made them in, baby. I make the trends.” She then asked if I owned a pair of Uggs and wore one of those Live Strong bracelets.) Anyway, try to avoid mid-seeded teams that a lot of people are picking to advance far.
Georgia Tech comes to mind, even though I like their style and picked them to win the ACC Tournament (did you see my picks by the way? I was one terrible Duke Edsall call away from nailing the entire tournament).
Florida is another team that has had to open up the second-level of its bandwagon, so watch out for them.
Both are streaky teams that could lose in the first round or advance to the Final Four. Be wary.

- Don’t read anything into the conference tournament losses. The only thing conference tournaments are good for is determining who is hot. Georgia Tech, for instance, is one of these teams. Yes, I said beware of them above, but they had a solid run through the ACC Tournament and seem to be playing well together for the first time all season.
On the flip side, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Kentucky, Connecticut and Kansas all suffered tough losses in their respective conference tournaments, but won’t be any worse for the wear come Thursday.

- Ignore the polls and the RPI. If you want to look at numbers, check out a team’s non-conference RPI and their cheerleaders. The non-conference RPI will give you insight into a team’s ability to change up their game (since teams in the same conferences tend to play a similar brand of ball), while looking at the cheerleaders will allow you to look at the cheerleaders.

- Under no circumstance should you ever listen to Dick Vitale. In fact, you should probably look at Vitale’s bracket and pick the exact opposite of what he does. (Note: Shockingly, Vitale picked Duke to make it to the Final Four. Amazingly, Vitale also has Duke winning his NIT pool and American Idol.)

- Beware of hyphenated schools. Sure, Farleigh-Dickinson might look and sound like a great pick (“well, I like Emily’s poetry and I did enjoy There’s Something About Mary and Kingpin, so that team MUST be good!”) but think about all the hyphenated celebrities you loathe. These include the former Rebecca Romijn-Stamos (I wasn’t even married to John Stamos like her, yet I still have considered taking Uncle Jesse’s last name. Come to think of it, how great would it be if her name had been Rebecca Romijn-Katsapalous) and Jean-Jacques Rousseau (let’s just say that my Philosophy grade sophomore year would have benefited if Mr. Anti-Private Property had kept his frog-thoughts to himself).
I even dislike people with hyphenated names that I’m supposed to like, like Nik Caner-Medley. I remember the first time I saw that tall drink of water I thought to myself, “man, I would hate this guy so much if he went to Duke.” And then I saw Lee Melchionni for the first time and realized how right I was.

- When in doubt, pick the team you like less. Here’s why: Let’s say I pick Duke to go the Final Four. Now, I don’t like Duke. Some might even go so far as to say that I hate Duke. Others would say that I believe, along with North Korea and Michael Eisner’s office, that Cameron Indoor Stadium is the most evil place on earth. A select few might venture a guess that if I had to choose between watching Duke win the Final Four or playing Julius Hodge in the off-Broadway play, “Memoirs of a Nad Puncher: The Chris Paul Story”, I’d immediately change my name to Julius, grow a wispy mustache, lose 90 pounds and start preparing for the NBDL.
But I digress. I don’t like Duke, but if I’m having a hard time figuring out whether to put Duke or Syracuse to get to the Final Four, I’ll pick Duke. That way, if those stuck-up preppies win, I can take consolation in the fact that it might end up winning me money. And if they lose, then I won’t be at all upset about losing money because it will mean that J.J. Redick will cry himself to sleep on the shoulders of Shavlik Randolph, and knowing that makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside. Maybe Chris Carawell can send them a box of tissues when they lose, unless he’s not done crying about Duke’s 2000 loss to Florida. (A quick note: The day after that game (which was a Sweet 16 match-up) I went to visit a friend at Duke – I was a freshman at Wake Forest at the time. (And yes, I had a friend that went to Duke. I was in therapy for two years dealing with this, so I’d rather not go there.) Anyway, I borrowed my buddy’s Florida Basketball t-shirt and wore it to Durham and didn’t take it off for the entire weekend. (Note: I’m not a Florida fan, but was that weekend because anybody who beats Duke is solid with me.) Once on campus I would walk up to people, with my Florida t-shirt in full view, and ask how I could get Duke Final Four tickets or where I could buy a Duke Final Four hat. Other times I would ask random people the score of the game.
Amazingly, not one person said anything remotely creative or derogatory to me after my snide comments. Some even laughed. The worst I got were a few dirty looks and some mumbled comments as I walked away.
Now, if those Cameron Crazies were actually crazy, they would have chased me off campus. Instead I had the run of those losers for three days and they didn’t even break out a “how many national championships has Florida won?” What a bunch of pansies. But I digress.)
This rule works also for teams you like also. I want Wake Forest and Kansas to do well in the Tourney. Sure, it’d be sweet if they both made it to the Finals and I predicted they’d be there. But if I’m not sure, I’ll pick, say, Illinois and Syracuse.
So, if the Deacs and Jayhawks make it to the Championship, I’ll be so happy that it won’t matter if my brackets are screwed up. If they don’t, then I’ll still have a chance at winning some money. If I pick my favorite teams and they end up losing, then I’m doubly screwed.
Let’s call this the “Cut Your Losses” method.

- Don’t pick more than one school without a state in its name to be in the Final Four. This means, if you have Boston College, Wake Forest, Villanova and Duke coming out of their respective regions, you better get back to work.
Most years the Final Four is dominated by schools with states in their name like Michigan State, Connecticut, Kentucky and North Carolina. In fact, Duke, Marquette, Syracuse and Stanford are the only non-state named schools to make the Final Four since 1992. I bet you don’t find that statistic on ESPN.com. Take that Joe Lunardi!

- Don’t expect Texas Tech to be playing on the second weekend. Bobby Knight coached teams have not advanced past the 2nd round since his Indiana teams were wearing those short-shorts.
Also, in a little known piece of movie-trivia, Wesley Snipes’ famous line from Passenger 57 - “Always bet on black” – was originally scripted as “Never bet on Bob Huggins in the Tournament”.

- Try not to get too cute with your picks. Yeah, its fun to pick George Washington over Georgia Tech because you can’t get enough of Pops Mensah-Bonsu and it might be nice to put Penn in the Sweet 16 because your best friend Harry’s little brother Larry went there, but try to ignore those thoughts.
Picking upsets is overrated. Cinderella’s are great for the Tournament, but the clock always strikes midnight and if you’re stuck on the dance floor when your spiffy Sean Jean tux turns into that pit-stained Schweppes t-shirt you stole from a girl streaking the quad, you’re gonna lose your pool entry fee and all your self-respect if you let a red-headed, Syracuse-born Irishman win your pool (not that I’m bitter, Tim O).
Remember, it’s rare that a team seeded lower than #5 makes it to the Final Four (it’s happened thrice since 1992). So try to limit your upsets to the early rounds and don’t knock off any team you think has a good chance of advancing far.
If the mood to get sassy with your picks should strike you, try this method instead – fill in the teams you think will be in the Sweet 16 first. Then, work backwards and if you see an upset possibility in the first round, pick it.
For instance, if you think Syracuse is going to win their second round game regardless of whom they play, then consider taking Old Dominion to beat Michigan State. Since you have the ‘Cuse in the Sweet 16 anyway, you won’t lose too much if MSU should win the first round game, but you’ll get a nice leg-up on the competition if ODU springs the upset. It’s a nice risk-reward play.
This is especially key in pools that reward upsets. Which leads me to the next tip…

- Take a look at how your pool is being scored. Everybody has a different method for scoring. Some pools emphasize the Final Four so much that 1st round games are left relatively meaningless. In these pools, try to have as much of a chalk bracket as you can. In other pools, the points aren’t staggered nearly as much between the 1st Round and Final Four, so every game counts. In these, pick a few upsets and take a risk by advancing one of your sleeper teams to the Sweet 16. Other pools greatly emphasize upsets. When filling out brackets for this kind of pool, work backwards from the Sweet 16 like I suggested above.

- Pick a #1 seed to win the whole thing. In nine of the last 13 years, a number one seed has hoisted the Championship trophy on the first Monday in April. The past two years have bucked this trend, Connecticut won with a #2 last year following Syracuse, who won with a #3 the year before. But before that Connecticut, Michigan State, Duke and Maryland made it four straight years that a #1 seed went all the way.
If you don’t pick a #1 seed to win it, at least have two #1’s in the Final Four.

- Along with the “Cut Your Losses” method, here are some other ways to pick the outcome of that pesky game you can’t figure out:
1) Compare at the coaches. Example: Cincinnati vs. Duke. Bob Huggins vs. Mike Krzyzewski. One knows the alphabet, one gets stuck on that pesky L-M-N-O quadrant. Need I say more?
2) The tougher the mascot, the tougher the team. This is also known as the “Scott Van Pelt Theory”. The SportsCenter anchor, and Maryland alum, says when in doubt, figure out which mascot would win in a no-holds barred brawl. Example: N.C. State Wolfpack vs. Charlotte 49ers. This is tougher than picking between a Tiger and a Panther (Pacific/Pitt), but I think I would give the slight edge to State on this one. After all, Michael J. Fox, Justin Bateman (circa 1988) and Nick Streit could definitely beat up Jeff Garcia, Garrison Hearst and Eddie DeBartolo.
3) Ask yourself… What Would Uncle Jesse Do? (By the way, what the hell is ABC thinking premiering John Stamos’ new show Jake in Progress on the opening night of the NCAA Tournament? That’s like scheduling a Seinfeld reunion at the same time as the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show.
4) Look for signs. If you channel surf past Meet the Press and see James Carville on, you know that the University of Louisiana-Lafayette Rajun’ Cajun’s are the pick over Louisville. Maybe you open Sports Illustrated and read a story about the biggest NBA busts. If that’s the case, then Duke becomes your choice. Or lets say you run into my buddy Antzo on the street and you smell one of the 43 different colognes he owns. Then you can be confident that the school named after St. Mary, the patron saint of perfumers, will take you to the promised land.

- Don’t let your picks take away from your enjoyment of crazy upsets. If Alabama A&M is up late on North Carolina and you have the Tar Heels winning the whole thing, you still have to root for A&M even if it destroys your bracket. This is a law in 37 states and the District of Columbia. There’s nothing worse than not enjoying the celebration after a buzzer beater because you’re checking to see what it does to your brackets.

- Avoid listening to any bracket tips from people in your pool. If those tips were any good, why would they be giving them to you? There's nothing worse than switching a pick because of a 'sure-fire' tip from a friend and then watching that team lose to your original winner.

To all four of my female readers, don’t listen to any advice from guys. We are a manipulative, repulsive and deceitful gender, and any tip you get from us will likely be geared towards one day seeing you naked.
When you ask Frank from Accounts Payable who he has in the Austin bracket, here is the way the conversation will sound to you:

You - Who do you have winning Duke’s region?
Frank, from Accounts Payable - Well… long pause... Duke is alright, but I’m going with Kentucky. Their point guard is quick off the dribble and the way, um, Tubby Jones runs screens can trip-up defenses that don’t like playing a triangle-and-two.
You - Wow, that's sounds great! Thanks Frank.
Frank, from Accounts Payable - No problemo.

Now, here’s how the conversation plays out in Frank’s mind.

You - "Who do you have winning Duke’s region?"
Frank’s (from Accounts Payable) Inner-Monologue - Oooh, she's talking to me. And Tournament questions, no less. She needed a sports question, so she came to the most athletic guy in the office (adjusts cell-phone belt-clip). I don't blame her, I am studly (runs hand through thinning hair). I always knew she wanted me, but this confirms it… Bravo Frank, bravo you sly dog. You better do some laundry so you have clean underwear for later. And where did I put my going-out shirt? I hope it's not that crumpled up thing I saw in the hamper today. Shoot, I might have to buy some more Downey Wrinkle Release. And cat food. Oh crap, she’s waiting for an answer. Well, how should I play this? Do I act all aloof like I don’t care or dazzle her with my non-existent basketball knowledge? Well, she’ll never know if I’m just BS’ing her, so lets go with that.
"Duke is alright, but I’m going with Kentucky."
Oh crap, I don’t know any players on that team. Why couldn’t I have gone with Syracuse, I know Carmelo Anthony… Alright, think, think… Ahh, dammit. Just make something up.
"Their point guard is quick off the dribble and the way..."
DAMN! What’s the coaches name? Something weird… Porky?
Um...
No, that’s the movie… Bubby? Crap… TUBBY!
"Tubby Jones runs screens can trip-up defenses that don’t like playing a triangle-and-two."
WHEW! That was pretty good, I don’t know if that’s Tubby’s last name though. And thank goodness I played NBA Live with my roommate last week or else I never would have known that triangle-and-two stuff. I bet she’s impressed. She is smiling. Oh man, she so wants me. I definitely have to go gloat over in advertising. Alan's gonna flip when he finds out I'm gonna be hookin' up with (your name). OK, checklist for tonight: Barry White CD, wash my sheets, hide adult DVD’s, class up my fridge by replacing Natty Lite with Miller Lite. Ooh, that’s a good one. Frank, you handsome bastard, you are about to score. Act cool though. Act natural.
You - "Well, that sounds good. Thanks Frank!"
Frank’s, from Accounts Payable, Inner-Monologue - Time to ask her out. She wants you to ask her out. ASK HER OUT DAMMIT. Who asks an NCAA question if they don't want a little Frank-lovin'. And remember three months ago when she asked to borrow white-out? That was a sign! You're destined to be together. White-out! Come on! That's such a hint! Alright, do it. DO IT! Ask her out and don't say anything stupid.
No problemo.
NO PROBLEMO? What is this, 1986? Why didn't you ask her out? You pansy! It's all over for you now. Why don't you just get it over with and propose to J.J. Redick you loser. You blew it again. Way to go.
Alright, now that you've ruined this, try to save some dignity for a later date proposal. Let's walk away like you own the place, you know, save a little face. (Frank runs into a file cabinet, spilling hundreds of papers on the ground.)

Anyway, that’s what’s likely to happen if you ask some guy his opinion on the tournament. He won’t know what he’s talking about and you’ll not only have a new stalker, but terrible brackets.

- Come up with a clever team name for your entry. Anything that involves your last name, mascot of the college you attended, numbers, using a Z instead of an S (i.e. Boyz) or the words “fo shizzle” will not be tolerated.

- Most importantly, ignore everything you’ve just read. This is the only tip you should remember.

Happy bracketing!

Bracket Impressions

Empty brackets might just be the most beautiful things in the world, behind Catherine Zeta-Jones and any neon Popeye’s sign, of course.
Sixty-four spaces symmetrically converging into one? True art. It's a wonder that the man who invented the brackets isn't mentioned in the same breath as Michelangelo, Van Gogh, Picasso and the dude who draws Marmaduke.
Today I'll give my first impressions on the field of 65, beginning Chris's Sports Blog's four-part NCAA Tournament preview.
Come on back every day this week to www.chrischase.com for bracket tips, news, updates, analysis and venemous anti-Duke rhetoric.

Easiest Draw: Duke
What a shock that the #1 seed with the easiest road to the Final Four is Duke.
You would have thought that after the refs called a crippling foul on Jarrett Jack late in the ACC Final, despite the fact that Jack didn’t touch Redick (who should have been whistled when he pushed off Anthony McHenry), Duke was finished receiving favors from the NCAA. But that's just kooky talk! This is Duke! Their basketball team exists solely to receive beneficial calls from officials, easy draws in the NCAA Tournament and to help the school's student body cope when they discover that they are, in fact, gigantic losers.
So, in normal Duke fashion, they got an undeserved #1 seed and the easiest draw in the field, even though they were the 3rd ranked top seed. Duke got the worst #2 seed in their bracket (Kentucky) and the worst 8-9 teams (Stanford and Mississippi State) also. At this rate, by 2007 the selection committee will put Duke in the women's bracket for the first two rounds.
Dont' sweat Duke's easy draw though, they still won’t come out of the South.

Toughest Draw: Villanova
The ‘Cats are only a #5 seed, so they can’t do too much complaining about their difficult draw, but that doesn’t mean I can’t.
Villanova has to play Danny Granger and his dangerous New Mexico team in the first round, just to get to a match-up with Billy Donovan’s surging Florida squad.
If the ‘Cats, the most underrated team in the country at the moment, should dodge those two bullets, their reward is a match-up in Syracuse against everybody’s Tournament favorite North Carolina.
Whoever wins that game has the pleasure of facing either Uconn or Kansas in the Elite Eight.
Realistically, if Villanova were to win their first-round game and then advance to the Final Four, their game in St. Louis would be their easiest contest since the first round.
That, my friends, is the definition of a stacked region.

Team That Initially Could Have Complained About Their Seed: Wake Forest
When the Demon Deacons saw that the fourth #1 seed went to Washington instead of to them, I'm guessing the team wasn't too happy.
Chris Paul probably looked around for an uncovered groin to punch, Justin Gray likely got hurt and lay on the court for two minutes and Trent Strickland probably dribbled erratically or took an ill-conceived three-pointer.
For a moment there was no joy in Winston...

Team That Initially Could Have Complained About Their Seed, But Upon Seeing Their Bracket Should Have Written Letters of Thanks to the Selection Committee and/or Baked Them a Wide Array of Desserts: Wake Forest
Until the Deacs saw their draw.
Wake was put in the best position of a #2 seed, which they deserved since they were going to be the lowest rated #1 seed or the top-rated #2 seed, so it really didn’t matter whether or not they got the top spot. And for as much belly-aching as I’ve done about how Duke gets to go play their first-round games in Charlotte instead of Wake, in actuality, it wouldn’t have mattered all that much anyway.
The Deacs still would have stayed in a Charlotte hotel, meaning it would have been like a road game, and since there aren’t nearly as many Wake alumni as there are Carolina alums, the odds of Charlotte being rabidly pro-Wake would have been slim.
I still have some beef with Duke leapfrogging Wake to get a top seed despite the fact that the Blue Devils finished two full games behind the Deacs in the ACC regular season. It’s almost as if the selection committee threw away all their old rulebook which said that what happens in the conference tournament stays in the conference tournament and doesn’t have as much bearing on a team’s seed than the regular season. But, of course, when it comes to Duke the rulebook gets thrown out and is hastily rewritten so as to avoid any more Coach K on-court collapses.
Anyways, Wake Forest is in very good shape to come out of Albuquerque. Yes, they still have Skip Prosser as their coach, but a probable second-round match-up with West Virginia won’t scare Wake, nor will a Gonzaga or Texas Tech Sweet 16 game.
Wake might not have received the seed they wanted, but their draw more than makes up for it.
Louisville is another team that deserved a higher seed, but can’t be unhappy with their draw. The Cardinals, who some believed deserved a #2 seed got dropped down to a #4, but their placement in Washington’s side of the bracket should please Rick Pitino.

Stop Whining: Notre Dame
To listen to Digger Phelps and Dick Vitale last night on ESPN, one would have thought that the Fighting Irish were being deprived of a chance at a certain National Championship because of their Tournament “snub”.
But despite the protests of ESPN’s biggest homers, Notre Dame’s resume is solidly unimpressive and the team, like Maryland, failed to win an easy, must-win game early in their conference tournament that would have ensured an at-large berth.
It’s easy to pick on Northern Iowa and UAB (the two teams that made it in ahead of the Irish), and say that Notre Dame should have been in, but after considering a few facts, defending the Irish becomes a tad more difficult:
1) Notre Dame lost four of their last five games, including at home to mediocre UCLA and, most importantly, to Rutgers in a Big East Tournament play-in game.
You want in the big dance, ND? Beat Rutgers – Princeton and Air Force did.
The Scarlet Knights finished 2-14 in the Big East and you fools couldn’t get by them. You want to place blame for your “snub”? Look in a mirror (and at your Dukie coach).
2) The Irish’s non-conference strength of schedule ranked 278th in Division I. Northern Iowa was 81st and UAB was 131st.
3) Did I mention they lost to Rutgers?

Region Run-Through

Midwest (Chicago)
First Impressions: Illinois’ 32-1 record earned them the top seed in the entire Tournament, and they deserve to play close to home for both the opening-round games and the regional, if they should advance that far.
Oklahoma State was pegged by the committee as the 8th ranked team in the tournament due to their placement in Illinois’ region, which seems a bit low considering the Cowboys won the Big 12 and were in consideration for a top seed as recently as a week ago.

Best 1st Round Game: Southern Illinois vs. St. Mary’s
This one looks like it could have been played a few weeks back in ESPN’s Bracket Buster Saturday. Rarely does the selection committee pair two mid-major at-large teams together in the first round, usually opting for the classic ‘overachieving mid-major against underachieving BCS school’ match-up.

Best Upset Possibility: #13 Pennsylvania over #4 Boston College
BC has trouble when teams slow it down, which Penn will almost certainly do. If the Quakers can figure out a way to get by Craig Smith, they could steal the upset.

Best Possible 2nd Round Game: Arizona vs. LSU
Have you seen LSU’s freshman Glen Davis? He’s listed at 6’9, 310 and that’s probably being a bit conservative. His nickname is “Big Baby” because of his baby face, but if I were at LSU I’d attempt to change his name to “The Big Buffet” which is clearly a much better name. Alas, my goal would ultimately fail, much like my ill-conceived attempt to bring back the high-five in 2002.
Davis is so big that he would have made Shaq as an LSU freshman look like Emmanuel Lewis. Along with Brandon Bass, Davis forms a powerful frontcourt that will force Arizona to the perimeter, where they’ll have to contend with LSU’s speedy guards.
If Salim Stoudamire gets hot, look out. But if he’s off just a bit, we could be in for another Arizona second-round classic (and Lute Olsen early exit).

Worst Possible 2nd Round Game: Alabama vs. Boston College
Man, that 20-0 record seems a long ways off, doesn’t it Al Skinner?

Early Final Four Prediction: Oklahoma State
I think only me and one other person (Frank Redemer of Puyallup, WA) aren’t picking Illinois to go to the Final Four. I could very well change my mind by Thursday, but I love the way Oklahoma State plays and I’m intrigued with their perimeter defense.
I’ll get into my reservations about Illinois later in the week.

West (Albuquerque Region)
First Impressions: Initially I was dumbfounded by Washington’s #1 seed, but after looking over their resume a bit, I dialed down my criticism. The Huskies only finished one game behind Arizona in the Pac-10, but beat them in two out of three games, which puts them dead even. Unlike Duke, which finished two games behind Wake (they split the season series), but still managed to get a higher seed, Washington earned their spot.
That being said, Washington is one of the weaker #1 seeds in recent memory. Nate Robinson is a baller extradionaire, but he has yet to see the quality of guards that he’ll face if Washington should win a game or two. Carl Krauser, Jarrett Jack, Taquan Dean and Chris Paul are just a few of the players Robinson and Washington could see en route to the Final Four.

Best 1st Round Game: Pacific vs. Pittsburgh
Washington better scout this game hard, because either team could knock off the Huskies in the second round.

Best Upset Possibility: #14 Winthrop over #3 Gonzaga
Mark Few is a fabulous coach and deserves an immense amount of credit for turning Gonzaga into a national powerhouse.
That being said, the Zags don’t play well when they’re the favorites and that doesn’t bode well against a Winthrop team that played a difficult non-conference schedule (beating Providence).
That being said, don't pick Winthrop unless you want to contend with The Wolfman for worst NCAA pooler ever.

Best Possible 2nd Round Game: Georgia Tech vs. Louisville
If all goes to plan, this would be the best 2nd round match-up in the entire tournament. Both Tech and Louisville were mentioned as possible sleepers before the draw was announced, but now only one will advance to the Sweet 16. Look for the winner of this game to meet up with Wake Forest in the Elite Eight.

Worst Possible 2nd Round Game: Wake Forest vs. West Virginia
Not a terrible game, and one that WVA is quite capable of stealing. But this one reeks of a blowout, considering that the Mountaineers played a near-flawless game against Villanova on Friday night, yet still needed a bail-out call from the officials to beat a Wildcat team that played just alright.
But, whenever Skip Prosser coaches in the Tournament, anything can happen.

Early Final Four Prediction: Wake Forest
I can’t say I’m a fan of everybody and their mother (especially mine) picking Wake to go the Final Four, but looking at this bracket it’s tough to disagree.
Gonzaga could give the Deacs fits in the Sweet 16 (don’t forget that the Deacs lost to a mid-major in the Regional Semis last year), but I think Chris Paul will be on a mission this Tournament to prove his doubters and goods-punchees wrong.

East Region (Syracuse)
First Impressions: This is clearly the toughest bracket, but I’m not going to go as nuts as Jim Nantz, Dick Vitale and Andy Katz did when they saw this draw.
Yes, seeing the names North Carolina, Kansas and Connecticut in the same bracket is remarkable, but the latter two are deeply flawed teams that have struggled at points this season. (UConn early on, Kansas more recently).
Villanova, a team I had pegged as a dark-horse Final Four candidate before the brackets were announced, got a tough draw and could have difficulty getting out of the first round.

Best 1st Round Game: Charlotte vs. N.C. State
This could be Julius Hodge’s last game before he begins what promises to be a stellar NBDL career.

Best Upset Possibility: #12 New Mexico over #5 Villanova
Remember the name Danny Granger.

Best Possible 2nd Round Game: Villanova vs. Florida
Well, I didn’t say that Villanova was definitely going to lose. Still, I promise this is the last time I mention Villanova today.

Worst Possible 2nd Round Game: North Carolina vs. Iowa State
The winner of this game will likely play Villanova in the Sweet 16. Damn. OK, starting…….. now!

Early Final Four Prediction: Kansas
Unlike the rest of the free world, I’m not sold on North Carolina. Their defense is suspect and they go through long stretches where they forget about Sean May. A Kansas-North Carolina regional final will be one of the most anticipated basketball games in recent history and I just don’t trust Roy Williams to get the job done against his former, beloved team.
But, just like my OSU pick earlier, this one might very well change before Thursday.

South Region (Austin)
First Impressions: Next year I fully expect the NCAA to give Duke a waiver that allows Coach K to play six players at a time.

Best 1st Round Game: Syracuse vs. Vermont
Best Upset Possibility: #13 Vermont over #4 Syracuse
Most teams that advance far in the Tournament have an early-round struggle. This year, Syracuse could get taken to the wire by Taylor Coppenrath and the Catamounts, but could then run the table en route to St. Louis.
If Coppenrath can neutralize Hakim Warrick (a big if), then Vermont will have a great chance to win this game. Jim Boeheim’s zone will give Vermont fits, but Catamount guard T.J. Sorrentine can be expected to be patient and not force the ball in.
Syracuse received early scares in both 2003 and 2004, look for it happen again.

Best Possible 2nd Round Game: Utah vs. Oklahoma
If the Utes, led by probably #1 draft pick Andrew Bogut, can get by Kelvin Sampson’s Sooners, Cinderella might be on the lookout for a Mormon Prince Charming.

Worst Possible 2nd Round Game: Syracuse vs. Michigan State
This one has all the makings of an overhyped contest between two of the last five National Champions, but in actuality will probably be an ugly blowout considering that MSU isn’t too good this year.

Early Final Four Prediction: Syracuse
In my College Basketball Preview I picked Kansas, Wake Forest, Syracuse and N.C. State as my Final Four teams, and except for State, I’m going to stand by my picks. Duke will struggle since Larry Rose and Duke Edsell won’t be officiating their games and Kentucky was never all that good to begin with (next year, look out though).

Tomorrow: NCAA Bracket Tips
Wednesday: Tournament Thoughts
Thursday: Game-by-Game Predictions for all 63 Contests

Go ahead and get your NCAA Tournament fix at ESPN.com (I'll save you the trouble - Notre Dame was robbed of a guaranteed National Championship because they weren't given an at large berth, Duke and Washington absolutely deserve their #1 seeds even though they were a combined four games behind the winners of their respective conferences and North Carolina is so good they might as well give them the trophy now), but be sure not to touch your brackets until you come back to Chris's Sports Blog at noon for my initial impressions on the field 65, the first in a four-part NCAA Tournament Preview on this site.
On Tuesday you'll find some foolproof tips on filling out your bracket, Wednesday I'll regale you with thoughts on the upcoming Tournament and, finally, on Thursday I'll give my game-by-game predictions.
Other sites might have flashier graphics, feature more famous writers and contain actual information, but they don't hate Duke nearly as much as I. And that's gotta count for something.
See you at noon.