Friday, January 20, 2006

Championship Game Picks... And Beyond!

Maybe it's because the Redskins lost last weekend or perhaps it's because I have no particular rooting interest in either championship game or it could be due to the fact that I'm anxiously awaiting the inevitable jailhouse call from The Wolfman (whose life unraveled following the last Bears divisional playoff blow-up in 2002), but I have absolutely zero interest in Sunday's NFL championship games.
Of course I'll watch both games and, as I detailed yesterday, it'd be sort of cool to see the Broncos win for purely selfish reasons, but I really couldn't care less about either contest. Granted, I would rather see the Panthers beat the overrated Seahawks, but it's not going to ruin my Sunday if they don't. And I like Bill Cowher, Jerome Bettis and Ben Roethlisberger, but my dislike of Mike Shanahan isn't enough to counterbalance that, so I'm rooting more for a close, exciting AFC Championship game than anything else.
It's tough to imagine both home teams losing on Sunday; Denver is one of the toughest places to play in the league, while Qwest Field gets loud as well (but is overrated as an intimidating stadium). Since the Broncos and Seahawks are a combined 18-0 at home this season, picking against them both is kind of ridiculous.
I've been picking against the Seahawks all season and want to continue that trend, but the loss of DeShaun Foster and a banged-up Julius Peppers (at best) gives Seattle a slight edge in their game against Carolina. But I picked the Panthers to win the NFC back in September, so I'm going to stick with them today.
The Seahawks defense will be eaten alive if they decide to blitz Jake Delhomme, so they'll need to come up with a different gameplan than they had against Washington. Clearly, they can't let Steve Smith do what he did against Chicago, but double-teaming him will leave the middle open for Nick Goings who, while not DeShaun Foster, is more than capable of carrying the load for Carolina.
Shaun Alexander will continue his playoff woes and Seattle will struggle playing catch-up, something they haven't had to do a lot this season. Look for a big day from Ricky Proehl too.
Pick: Carolina Panthers 35 - Seattle Seahawks 20
Like I said above, I don't think both home teams will lose this weekend, so if I could make this pick contingent on what happens in the other game I'd pick Denver if Carolina wins and Pittsburgh if Seattle should get the W. Of course, this game is on first, so this wouldn't make sense, even if it did make sense in the first place, which, of course, it does not.
The Broncos are still getting disrespected, even after man-handling the two-time defending Super Bowl champions and forcing Tom Brady into his worst big-game performance ever. (On Tuesday I asked why Brady wasn't getting ripped along with Peyton Manning for his pathetic playoff performance. Later that afternoon, the great Dr. Z did just that.)
Unlike the Seahawks, Denver has actually earned the respect they claim not to get. The Broncos played a difficult schedule and have dropped just two games since the middle of September; at the Giants (on a last-second TD) and at Kansas City.
I've been on Pittsburgh's bandwagon since that week they seemed dead in the playoff race but I'm scared by Bill Cowher's record in AFC Title games (1-4; how is this not a more-reported statistic) and by the Steelers fatigue factor (this is Pittsburgh's seventh-straight "playoff" game. Granted, the final three games of the regular season were against Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit, but the Steelers have still been in "must-win" mode since a week before "Lazy Sunday" debuted.)
It should be close and on a neutral field I'd probably go the other way (and if Pittsburgh wins it won't be an upset), but I'm going to go with the Man of La Mustache-a and Denver.
Pick: Denver Broncos 23 - Pittsburgh Steelers 21

- I love - LOVE - the Al Saunders hiring by the Redskins. I'll get into it more next week during my third annual State of the Redskins address but will say this in anticipation of the inevitable Len Pasquarelli column which proclaims Saunders' arrival in Washington a sign that Joe Gibbs has lost it: Joe Gibbs hasn't been a success in everything he's attempted in life because he's an egomaniac. He realizes the best way to build a successful team/organization/family is by surrounding yourself with good people. During his first stint in Washington, Gibbs had Richie Pettibon, Joe Bugel, Jim Hanifan and other great coaches to work with. When he built his NASCAR team, Gibbs was new to the sport so he hired people who had been associated with racing for their whole lives. Today, Gibbs Racing has three Winston/Nextel Cup titles. As for his family, Gibbs has said he could have never put long hours into football without the love and support of his wife Pat. In all aspects of his life, Joe Gibbs has great people around him. The hiring of Al Saunders adds one more.
Do you think a coach like Bill Parcells or Bill Belichick would ever hire a guy like Saunders; an ex-head coach turned revered assistant? To egomaniacs like them and Brian Billick, bringing in Saunders would be like admitting defeat. But to Joe Gibbs, the Saunders hiring was a no-brainer. Al Saunders has presided over the NFL's best offense during the past half-decade. He will bring new schemes, formations, drills and ideas to a Redskins offense that struggled towards the end of the 2005 season.
Along with Gibbs, Don Breaux, Jack Burns, Bill Musgrave and Joe Bugel, Saunders will be part of a braintrust with over 100 combined years of NFL experience. Together, it would be foolish to believe those coaches won't have the Redskins offense at the top of the NFL next season. With that revamped O to go along with Gregg Williams' D, the Washington Redskins have to be considered among the early favorites in the NFC in 2006.

- People reach this blog via interesting Google searches all the time - you'd be amazed (and disturbed) to see how often "Shavlik Randolph naked" used to bring people to Chris's Spots Blog. (I've always worn it as a badge of honor that I'm the #1 listing for "J.J. Redick backne".) Yesterday, though, a web surfer from Michigan clinched the award for "Greatest Google Search To Get To This Page Ever". I can only imagine what sort of information said web surfer expected to find when they Googled: Is Ed Hochuli hung?

- I'm no hockey fan (and that's putting it mildly), but I have to say that Alexander Ovechkin is one of the most exciting athletes I've ever seen play live. Seriously. Every time he touched the puck last night in the Capitals-Blues game, the MCI Center buzzed with excitement. The Octagon's first period goal was routine by his standards, but beautiful nonetheless. And the 20-year old made his goal in the shootout (a great innovation for the NHL, by the way) look so routine it was easy to overlook how difficult it really was. Not that I have any clue what a difficult shootout goal looks like, but that crossover couldn't have been easy.
I'm done talking about hockey now. I think I need a shower. And a haircut. And I definitely need to get rid of this Molson Ice that suddenly appeared on my desk.

- Did anybody else see Steve Smith on PTI's "Five Good Minutes" this week? Near the end of the interview, Kornheiser asked the diminutive receiver how he was so good despite being so small. Smith gave a quick smile and said (I'm paraphrasing), "around the house my wife doesn't think I'm too small." After convincing myself Smith couldn't have meant what I think he meant, I rewound it to see if I could make any further determination as to his intended implication. After careful deliberations with The Wolfman and Falkow, we've determined Smith was, indeed, proclaiming himself to be quite Hochulian in the crotchal region.

7 comments:

JRod said...

Two quick comments. To go along with your underestimating of the Seattle Seahawks all year, I have to disagree with you regarding their home crowd. I have commented to friends several times this season how impressed I was with them. And to be honest, I thought the game against the Skins was the loudest of any of the non-dome stadiums playoff games. Just my opinion.

My last point is regarding your prediction of the Skins dominance for this coming year. Is it just me or is every Skins fan forgetting the fact that Brunell completely broke down at the end of the year? The QB position has to be your biggest concern. Obviously, Brunell does not have much left in the tank. So, is it time to throw Campbell into the mix and see what you can get. I think that it probably is the right time and with that, you have to expect some poor offensive play off the bat. What are your thoughts?

Chris said...

I'll get into the Brunell/Campbell decision next week, but I agree that it's the most important question facing Washington in the off-season.
As for Qwest Field, I agree it's loud but it's no RFK, Lambeau or Arrowhead. Those stadiums seem (and seemed) to be worth at least seven points with the crowd noise and intimidation factor. I doubt the Panthers are getting too scared about playing at a place named after... What the hell is Qwest anyway?
Clearly Giants fans will think Seattle is a tough place to play, the G-Men had 11 false start penalties when they went up there earlier this season, leading to the oft-repeated statistic that opposing teams had 22 false starts called against them at Qwest Fieldl; an impressive stat until you consider that the Giants had half of those. The other seven Seahawks opponents combined for just 11.

craig said...

Hail to the Hoyas

JRod said...

An unwarranted, malicious shot at a Giant fan. I was purely basing it on the playoff game and the fact that the announcers keep commenting on how loud it is there. It is a new stadium and I think it will quickly become one of the feared places to play. They did go 8-0 there this year plus one playoff victory so far.

Anonymous said...

I hope you have been betting money against the Hawks all year.

I won't even bother pointing out how wrong you were...

Chris said...

And you were right? Oh, wait... You make predictions which you won't be held accountable for and then not-at-all-cleverly mock people who do and get them wrong.
Seattle still isn't very good and will lose to the Steelers in the Super Bowl. And when it happens in two weeks, I guarantee you won't be back here telling me how right I was. Chump.

Anonymous said...

i think Duke's weakness was exposed this weekend. An athletic team that can stretch their defense and attack the basket is going to give them trouble. And they will see many teams like that in the tourney. and while JJ did play great, he was a no factor in the last two minutes of the game (an airball and a blocked shot) Mike Patrick and Dukie Vitale can slobber all over him all they want, he has never played good in March, and unless he changes that we can start calling him Peyton Manning.