Region Run-Through

East (Washington D.C.)

First Impressions: My disgust (yes, disgust) over Tennessee’s #2 seed was well-documented yesterday, but I’m still in disbelief. Compounding my shock is the fact that North Carolina, the rightful #2 seed in the East, is being shipped to Dayton for their opening round games while Tennessee takes the Heels deserved spot in Greensboro. Again, Tennessee has lost four of six and didn’t advance in the SEC Tournament. North Carolina, on the other hand, has won 11 of 13, including victories over three Tournament teams. If the selection committee were responsible for choosing the Oscars, let's just say that David Arquette would have a few statues on his mantle.

Best 1st Round Game: #6 Michigan State vs. #11 George Mason
Tony Skinn’s suspension for jewel-throbbery puts a damper on Mason’s chances, but in an otherwise boring bracket, this is the most intriguing opening-round contest.

Best Upset Possibility: #15 Winthrop over #2 Tennessee
Maybe I'm being too subtle about my thoughts on Tennessee. (Even though I don't think it will happen, Air Force could give Illinois some trouble. Bruce Weber can’t be happy about all the bad press Air Force’s at-large berth is getting. No matter what he tells them, his Illinois team will be dismissive of the Falcons' chances thanks to the beating they're getting in the media.)

Best Possible 2nd Round Game: #2 Tennessee vs. #7 Wichita State
Don’t be fooled by the history; a match-up of Connecticut and Kentucky in 2006 isn’t all that great. But the Shockers frontcourt power versus Tennessee’s press should present an interesting contrast of styles.

Worst Possible 2nd Round Game: #1 Connecticut vs. #8 Kentucky
Kentucky was swept by Vanderbilt, people. The '96 team, they are not.

Early Final Four Prediction: North Carolina
I very well might switch this pick to UConn by Thursday, but I’m wary of the Huskies lack of a go-to guy. They have six great players, but nobody I’d feel totally comfortable with in a late-game situation. Every team that wins a National Championship needs to have their rock. I don’t think UConn has that.

Midwest (Minneapolis)

First Impressions: With the exception of Florida and Oklahoma, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the top 7 seeds makes it to Indianapolis. Villanova is the clear favorite, but Ohio State, Boston College, Nevada and Georgetown all have a legitimate shot of putting together a four-game run.

Best 1st Round Game: #7 Georgetown vs. #10 Northern Iowa
In another “too coincidental to be coincidence” bracketoid: Three of the four teams from the MVC play Big East schools in the first round. The other (Bradley) plays Kansas. If I were in a cheesy ‘80s sports movie I’d say, “MVC, it’s time to put up or shut up,” but I’m not. So I won’t.

Best Upset Possibility: #14 South Alabama vs. #3 Florida
UW-Milwaukee over Oklahoma won’t be an upset since beating a Kelvin Sampson-coached team is about as difficult as beating a toddler in checkers. Florida will likely handle South Alabama because of their interior size, but Billy Donovan teams have been known to flame out of the tourney early before. (See 2003... And all those other times.)

Best Possible 2nd Round Game: #4 Boston College vs. #5 Nevada
BC will likely be the trendy pick out of this region (despite Al Skinner’s Prosseresque Tournament record), but they could face trouble in the form of Nick Fazekas and Nevada in the second round. This game would take place in Salt Lake City at altitude, something that won’t bother the Wolf Pack, but could affect a BC team playing their fifth game in eight days.

Worst Possible 2nd Round Game: #3 Florida vs. #6 Oklahoma
One of these teams is losing in the first round, but if they should somehow both advance, the world will be treated to poor shooting, poor coaching and Joakim Noah’s hair.

Early Final Four Prediction: Villanova
I picked ‘em in October and I’m picking ‘em in March.

South Region (Atlanta)

First Impressions: 1) GW got hosed.
2) The winner of that GW/UNC-W game could give Duke some trouble.
3) Syracuse is the Jay Cutler of Tournament teams.
4) And they’re lucky they play Texas A&M, a school I wasn’t even aware had a basketball team.
5) Southern Illinois got jobbed.
6) But maybe West Virginia did too.
7) Between Iowa and Syracuse, this is the “peaked one week too soon” bracket.
8) N.C. State: Whoo, they don’t look too good.
9) Texas is terribly overrated, yet could easily sneak out of this region.

Best 1st Round Game: #8 George Washington vs. #9 UNC-Wilmington
GW’s stifling press could cause fits for the Seahawks, who feature senior John Goldsberry, a player whose first (and only) brush with fame came three years ago when he went 7-7 from three in a first-round game against the defending National Champs (Maryland).

Best Upset Possibility: #13 Iona over #4 LSU
If you’re sensing that I’m not a big fan of the SEC this year, keep up the good work.

Best Possible 2nd Round Game: #1 Duke vs. #8 George Washington
Even though I’m probably picking UNC-Wilmington to beat the Colonials, I’d love to see Greg Paulus try to bring the ball up against GW’s tenacious press. Without the benefit of ACC officials to ignore the clearing out he does every time he puts the ball on the floor, Paulus would likely get rattled after an early offensive foul call, which would cause the Wojo-wannabe to push Pops Mensah-Bonsu, only to have Dick Vitale claim he did it in celebration.

Worst Possible 2nd Round Game: #1 Duke vs. #8 George Washington
Then again, the officials will probably let Paulus bring a stun-gun out onto the court with him, allowing him to break the press to free up J.J. Redick who’d be wide open on the corner each and every possession.

Early Final Four Prediction: Texas
I don’t think you understand how much I dislike Texas. Rick Barnes isn’t a very good in-game coach, Brad Buckman can’t get a rebound without cutting out an opponent’s knees (maybe the Denver Broncos should draft him to play on their o-line), LaMarcus Aldridge (like Rudy Gay) started believing his hype too early and seems to get lost for long stretches of the game, the backcourt of Daniel Gibson and Kenton Paulino is solid, but they don’t distribute the ball well and, frankly, I can’t trust a team that has lost games by 31, 17 and 21 points this season and had one game where they only scored 43 points total. There’s no way a team like that can win the National Championship. Yet, I think the South is going to look like a war zone one week from today and Texas will be able to tiptoe into the Final Four. But I reserve the right to change my mind by Thursday.

West Region (Oakland)

First Impressions: Why is there a regional being played in Oakland? Did Al Davis threaten to move the Raiders to Inglewood if the NCAA didn’t play here? What gives?
Basketball-wise, this might be one of the worst brackets I’ve seen in a few years. Memphis is a deserving #1 seed, but when’s the last time a team that hadn’t played a good opponent since January made it to the Final Four. (Dare I say, UNLV in 1991?) UCLA and Gonzaga have all the hallmarks of upset victims, Kansas is still one year away, Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh, Indiana has a lameduck coach and Dwyane Wade hasn’t been at Marquette for three years.

Best 1st Round Game: #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Bucknell
Who would have thought Bucknell would be the most imposing #9 seed in the Tournament.

Best Upset Possibility: #16 Oral Roberts over #1 Memphis
One day it’s going to happen. And Friday is as good a day as any.

Best Possible 2nd Round Game: #4 Kansas vs. #5 Pittsburgh
I’m pretty sure Pitt presents match-up problems for Kansas, but it’s getting late in the afternoon and my back feels about the same as Tony Soprano’s abdomen, so I’ll look into that for Thursday instead.

Worst Possible 2nd Round Game: #3 Gonzaga vs. #11 San Diego State
Why do I have the feeling Steve Fisher will try to make an under-the-table offer to Adam Morrison before this one.

Early Final Four Prediction: Pittsburgh
A four seed or lower is going to come out of at least one of the brackets. The smart money is on the West. Of course, I haven’t won an NCAA pool since 7th grade, so what the hell do I know.

Tomorrow: How To Fill Out Your Bracket
Wednesday: Final Bracket Thoughts
Thursday: Tournament Predictions For All 63 Games