Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 1
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - Running Backs

"The big three, the big three," that's all anybody can talk about headed into the 2006 fantasy season. By all accounts, there are only three players worth drafting this year and if you don't have one of the top picks you might as well just draft the entire Lions roster and call it a day.
But all this talk about there only being three greats confuses me. This isn't Yalta, people. There is plenty of talent beyond Danie, LJ and Shaun Alexander. And by plenty I mean in spots four through six. Because, in reality, the RBs this year go exactly six deep. After that is the precipitous drop-off that some people think starts at #4.
Each of the "Big Six" have huge question marks headed into the season though. It is with these question marks that we begin Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview Extravaganza (in alphabetical order):

Shaun Alexander
- Seahawks nearly assured of a post-Super Bowl malaise
- Lost offensive line stalwart Steve Hutchinson
- Recently signed big money, long-term deal

Tiki Barber
- Approaching dreaded 2,000 carry plateau
- At 31, is oldest of top six backs

Edgerrin James
- Approaching dreaded 2,000 carry plateau
- Leaves 14-2 Colts for Arizona Cardinals
- No, seriously, Kurt Warner is their quarterback

Larry Johnson
- First season as featured back
- Lost head coach and offensive coordinator in off-season
- Lead blocker and Hall of Famer Willie Roaf retired
- Has been accused of playing soft

Clinton Portis
- Popped out shoulder like Mel Gibson in Lethal Weapon 2
- Between Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle-El, Chris Cooley, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Sellers and Ladell Betts, Portis should carry ball less in 2006.

LaDainian Tomlinson
- Playing with new, young quarterback

Because of all these question marks, this is the first fantasy season I can remember where there isn’t a single drafting position I’d feel comfortable in. Picking #1 forces you to decide between the top three. Picking #2 takes away one of those selections, but leaves you with a coin flip. Picking #3 gives you little choice, unless you want to take a risk. Sitting at #4 is the riskiest position of the draft; players have a choice of about 15 backs that could either saunter to the top of RB rankings or pull a Domanick Davis. It’s more of the same at #5 and #6. And after that? Enjoy 52 yard afternoons from Willis McGahee.
The Big Six (in descending order, because it’s more fun that way):

6) Edgerrin James – Arizona Cardinals – 1,506 rush, 337 rec, 14 TD (2005 stats)
Oh, Edge, how I’ll miss you. For three straight years I’ve had Edgerrin in my 12-team league, but because I’m picking dead last in today’s draft, we won’t be making it four. (There’s still a chance I can grab Edge in my eight-team money league; I’ve had him two years running there.) While I seem a little nostalgic today, I’m not gonna lie: Even if I had the opportunity to draft Edge, I don’t know if I would.
There’s just too many things that can go wrong this year in Arizona. For starters, Kurt Warner isn’t going to last all 16 games, meaning Matt Leinart will be in at some point. I’m a big Leinart fan, but I also know simple math: Young QB + bad offensive line = David Carr.
Edgerrin is also surprisingly bad in short yardage situations. I can’t tell you the amount of times in the past three seasons that I’ve been yelling at the TV when Edge couldn’t get in from eight inches out.
Also, what if one of Edge’s dreadlocks gets caught in the gears when the Cards are moving their field indoors for the game? He's but a simple man from southern Florida. Fields moving in and out of doors on rollers might freak him out a bit.
Here’s another: He’s playing on the freakin’ Cardinals. Who was the last Cardinal running back to be an effective fantasy player? Ah-ha, it’s a trick question, suckers. Because the Arizona Cardinals have never had an effective fantasy back. Ever. If we conservatively estimate that fantasy football was popularized in the mid-‘90s, the best season for a Cards running back was by Adrian Murrell in 1998, when he gained 1,211 yards on the ground and through the air and got in the endzone 10 times. It says a lot that the second best season in that span was put up by what was left of Emmitt Smith.
Edgerrin has been my fantasy rock for three seasons. He completes me. He had me at “what’s crackin?” But he’s a risk in 2006. Oh, the reward will be high, but so, probably, will be Edge.

5) Clinton Portis – Washington Redskins – 1,518 rush, 216 rec, 11 TD
Before the shoulder injury, Portis could have been a top three running back this season. He still can, but it’s not worth the risk, especially on a runner like Clinton who attacks the line of scrimmage and takes a fair share of hits over the course of the season. Only the most naïve Redskins fan is expecting CP to be healthy for all 16 games this season, so you shouldn’t either. But that’s still no reason to take Steven Jackson before snagging Clinton.

4) Larry Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs – 1,750 rush, 343 rec, 21 TD

With Al Saunders and Dick Vermeil gone, the Chiefs will struggle and fantasy owners nationwide will rue the day they picked Larry Johnson #1.
- February 7, 2006

Larry Johnson will be the biggest fantasy bust of all-time. This has been a theory of mine seven months in the making, but its probability (no, that's not the right word) was heightened today by Willie Roaf's retirement. I'm telling you there haven't been this many red flags waving since Stalin marched in Red Square.
- July 28, 2006

It’s one month later, and the red flags are still whipping in the wind. Johnson is the #1 overall player for ESPN.com drafts and sits atop the draft boards of nearly half the guys who call themselves fantasy experts. And, frankly, it’s tough to argue with them. In LJ’s final nine games of 2006, he ran for a total of 1,351 yards and 17 TD. That’s 325 more yards and six more TD than LaMont Jordan had in the entire season (and he’s listed as high as #5 on some boards). So why so low for such a dominating player?
For every player that had question marks above, LJ’s are the biggest. The loss of both Al Saunders and Dick Vermeil totally changes the complexion of the Kansas City Chiefs. Herm Edwards is a defensive coach and the new offensive coordinator, Mike Solari, is an o-line guy. (He worked with Saunders for the better part of the last decade so some might say the transition will be made with ease; but let’s not forget that some coaches might be brilliant working with, say, an o-line but struggle when they get a promotion. The Redskins Joe Bugel is a prime example of this. And that’s no knock of Buges or Mike Solari, either. But some guys are just better in the trenches than they are in the booth.)
Roaf’s retirement also drastically changes the complexion of the Chiefs o-line. When the future Hall of Famer missed chunks of time in 2005 the running attack didn’t suffer greatly, but it forced Tony Gonzalez into blocking duty. With linebackers not focused on Gonzalez’s route running, they were able to stuff more men in the box to contend with Johnson and Holmes. That will happen again this year. Oh, and I didn't even mention Kyle Turley.
Larry Johnson will be one of the most productive fantasy players in 2006. And I wouldn’t have him on my team if you paid me.

3) Tiki Barber – New York Giants – 1,860 rush, 530 rec, 11 TD
On that same day in February when I began hating on Larry Johnson, I wrote that I thought Tiki Barber wouldn’t make it through the 2006 season. My rational was simple: Tiki hasn’t been hurt in four seasons and he’s due.
Consider: In the years 2002 through 2005, Tiki carried the ball 304, 278, 322 and 357 times, respectively. That’s a lot of hits to take, even for a young guy like LDT, but Tiki isn’t that young anymore. As a 31 running back he’s more Julio Franco than Julio Lugo and at some point he’s going to hit the wall that Curtis Martin slammed into last season.
Even so, Tiki gained nearly 2,400 yards and got in the endzone 11 times, amazing considering Tom Coughlin insisted on giving the no-talent, no-hands, no-game Brandon Jacobs all of Tiki’s goal line carries.
If Eli Manning improves at all (and, bite my tongue, he will), it could open up the line even more for Tiki and will lighten his load. I'm going to back-off my prediction of injury and instead put Tiki #3 on my board.

2) Shaun Alexander – Seattle Seahawks – 1,880 rush, 78 rec, 28 TD
Anybody who came to this site last football season knows I’m not the biggest fan of Shaun Alexander. I think he’s selfish, soft and sexy. (Sorry, I needed another “s” word to complete the alliterative trio.) And though he’s due for a huge fall-off from his stratospheric ’05 numbers, he’s still the safest pick in the draft.
This doesn’t mean there aren’t some things to worry about, though. As stated above; the loss of Steve Hutchinson will hurt, as will the inevitable post-Super Bowl funk the Seahawks will find themselves in. And don’t underestimate Alexander’s desire either. He was playing for a big contract last year and he got it in the off-season. Just like Edge and Larry, I think Shaun will have a fine year, but I wouldn’t want him on my team just in case.

1) LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego Chargers – 1,462 rush, 370 rec, 20 TD, 3 pass TD
Of the consensus top three, LDT is the one I’d worry about least. For as much as I like Drew Brees, he’s still Drew Brees. Meaning, unless Philip Rivers is Ryan Leaf, Tomlinson shouldn’t experience too much of a drop off.
LJ might rush for more yards and Shaun might find the endzone, but LDT is a near lock for 1,900 yards, 18 TD and a few surprises. Take him with your top pick. He’s the safest selection in this draft.

After the top six the talent level drops off quicker than Tom Cruise’s career. We’re on the 9^th pick of my draft and I seriously have no clue what sort of dog I’m going to be stuck with at #12 and #13.

7) Ronnie Brown – Miami Dolphins – 907 rush, 232 rec, 5 TD
8) LaMont Jordan – Oakland Raiders – 1,025 rush, 563 rec, 11 TD
My cardinal rule of fantasy football (besides, don’t draft a Cardinal) is: Make sure your #1 running back is on a good team.
A #1 back has to be a consistent performer. The beauty of a guy like Edgerrin is that, even in his bad weeks, he’s still putting up a dozen or so points. The problem with backs like LaMont Jordan, Willis McGahee and Domanick Davis is that their teams are terrible and terrible teams usually are behind in the second half and have to throw the ball to catch back up, thus cutting into the RB’s carries and your points. Backs like this are fine when you have a solid guy to supplement the off-weeks. But, if you any of these cats are your #1, it could be a long season.
This is why I have Ronnie Brown ahead of LaMont Jordan on my draft board. Jordan had a nice season for a pathetic Raiders team in 2005 (the ex-Maryland RB was the 7^th best RB in traditional scoring leagues), thanks, in large part, to his receiving abilities. The Raiders, however, figure to be worse in 2006, thanks to the addition of Aaron Brooks, which will make Randy Moss even more unhappy than he already is and should throw the Raiders offense into quite the funk.
Brown’s Dolphins should continue the success they had in the second-half of 2005 and, by becoming the featured back in Ricky Williams’ absence, should be the main fantasy beneficiary. I was hoping Brown would fall to me with the 12^th pick in my draft, but he was gobbled up at #11. In a few minutes, you’ll see just how devastating that was. Seriously, I’m so depressed right now I can hardly write. My fantasy season, for all intents and purposes, is already over.

9) Rudi Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals – 1,458 rush, 90 rec, 12 TD
Rudi is a fairly consistent performer. He’s good for 1,400 yards, a dozen TD and about as many receiving yards as LaMont Jordan gets in a fortnight. His hands of stone keep him out of third down situations, which is the only negative, minus the fact that he spells his name with an “I”.

10) Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams – 1,046 rush, 320 rec, 10 TD
Anybody else find it amusing that the same pundits who are saying Mike Martz’s departure from St. Louis will provide a boon to Steven Jackson’s numbers and the same people saying Mike Martz’s arrival in Detroit will do the same to Kevin Jones’ numbers.

11) Cadillac Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1,178 rush, 81 rec, 5 TD
Cadillac might have the horsepower of his vehicular namesake, but he wears down quicker than a Soviet era Zaporozhets. Still, he’s going to get a lion’s share of the carries in Tampa and is an adequate #1 back.

After Caddy is where it gets tricky. It’s also where my season fell apart. Let me take you on a journey inside my mind. Please try to ignore the continuous loop of Beyonce’s Crazy In Love video.
Early on I eliminated the thought of taking Peyton Manning with one of my two picks, as Peyton has never finished an NFL season as the #1 ranked quarterback. (Yeah, it’s surprising, I know.) His consistency is great, but if I can get a QB like Jake Delhomme in the sixth round, I'll be thrilled.
I’m against taking a receiver so high, particularly if they tailed off in production at the end of last season (Steve Smith) or are named Terrell Owens (Terrell Owens). This left me with a choice of two running backs. But who?
I crossed Willie McGahee off the list early. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry on a disappointing Buffalo team in 2005 and only snuck into the endzone five times. Seeing as how the Bills best offensive upgrade of the off-season was replacing Eric Moulds with a guy that even the receiver-needy Atlanta Falcons didn’t want (Peerless Price), Buffalo and Willis figure to struggle in ’06 yet again. In a shaky position like mine, I couldn't afford to give Willis alpha-dog status. (Key stat: In a nine week stretch towards the end of last season, McGahee had only one game with more than 82 yards rushing. He had less than 55 in five of those contests.)
Brian Westbrook didn’t make the cut either because he’s more fragile than Vincent Libretti’s mental state (yes, that’s a Project Runway shout out. Shut up.)
I gave serious thought to Julius Jones; my thinking being that T.O. and Terry Glenn would open up the field for him, but even with Keyshawn drawing attention last year Jones couldn’t do much. I’d imagine he’s on a short leash with Bill Parcells also.
Domanick Davis looked enticing at #12, but he had his knee surgically repaired in the off-season and hasn’t practiced in three weeks.
Reuben Droughns caught my eye, but I then remembered Charlie Frye and thought to myself, who is that guy named Charlie Frye who caught my eye. Hov!
And, frankly, that’s it. Who else was I going to pick? There's nobody out there. I was stuck. It took me 23 minutes to make my pick (we have an e-mail draft) and it finally came down to Droughns and Davis and I (oh, I’m so ashamed of this) went with Domanick Davis, busted knee and all.
He had 1,313 total yards in just 10 games last season, so his upside was the highest. I took him over Droughns because Droughns rarely scores and plays for the Browns. And if Davis can get 1,300 yards in 10 games for the worst team in the league, just think of what he can do with the greatest player of all-time, Mario Williams, lined up on the other side of the ball. Seriously, I hate my team so much.
Because I was forced to take an injured bum like Domanick Davis (maybe I’ll write a column about how I just discovered fantasy football is all about luck and, even though I’m such a great player, the luck was against me by getting the 12^th pick. Yeah, that’ll make me feel better!) I figured I needed to make a splash with my next pick, #13. I couldn’t stomach having Davis and a guy like McGahee, Droughns or Jones, so I went out on a limb to open the second round. If I’m right, my season can be salvaged. If he ends up flaming out, I’ll miss the playoffs for the first time in my six years of fantasy. I'm usually a conservative player, but that's easy to do with a guy like Edgerrin James. With a low-pick in a top-heavy draft, one has to make adjustments on the fly. I had to take a risk. Which is why, with the 13th pick on the No More Klinedinst 2006 draft, Chris Chase selected Reggie Bush.

12) Domanick Davis – Houston Texans – 976 rush, 337 rec, 6 TD
13) Brian Westbrook – Philadelphia Eagles – 617 rush, 616 rec, 7 TD
14) Reggie Bush – New Orleans Saints – Rookie
15) Willis McGahee – Buffalo Bills – 1,247 rush, 178 rec, 5 TD
16) Reuben Droughns – Cleveland Browns – 1,232 rush, 369 rec, 2 TD
17) Julius Jones – Dallas Cowboys – 993 rush, 218 rec, 5 TD
18) Chester Taylor – Minnesota Vikings – 487 rush, 292 rec, 1 TD

It just dawned on me that my starting running backs are Domanick Davis and Reggie Bush. I long for the old days when people in my league would take Michael Vick in the first round and the Ravens D in the second. Oh, how I long for it. As it is, there haven’t been any bad picks in my draft yet. A few questionable ones (taking Edgerrin ahead of Tiki and Clinton Portis, for example and Reuben Droughns going before any WR), but nothing like there’s been in the past.
I’m going to call it quits for the day and curl up in a ball and weep, but come back tomorrow for the rest of my RB board and a rundown of either QBs or WRs. Pray for my team. Please.