Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 6
What The Hell?

It seems Daniel Snyder's love of free agents isn't relegated to the football field. The Los Angeles Times is reporting Snyder leads a group that has signed recently fired and always insane Tom Cruise to a movie production deal worth $3 million annually.
Len Pasquarelli says Cruise's deal will make it tough for the Redskins to come in under the salary cap in 2007, but that their e-meter ratings will be off the charts. Cruise reportedly offered his service at quarterback should Mark Brunell struggle this season, but after watching the All the Right Moves DVD, Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders told Snyder to sign that dude from Varsity Blues instead.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 5
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: The Sleepers & The Creepers

The sleepers and the creepers. Sounds like a doo-wop group from the '50s. I can practically hear the DJ on the oldies radio station announce the name in his radio-guy voice. But I digress.
My first fantasy draft is just about over, but my second one begins Monday. I'm usually not paranoid (except when I think the bush next to my mailbox is looking at me) and it's not like I think the guys in my money league are going to turn my draft board into their own, but a sleeper is a little different. All it takes is one good thing written about a player you hadn't had on your radar to convince you he might have an alright season. It wouldn't necessarily be because I wrote he'd be good, but after seeing the name "Antonio Bryant" under "sleeper" an opposing player might let their imagination go crazy and start thinking, "somebody has to catch balls in San Francisco. And they're down in nearly all their games so they're going to throw. And Alex Smith can't be as bad as he was last year. Yeah, Antonio Bryant is going to be huge!" Using that stab at logic, I'm going to hold back on my my list of sleepers until next week after my draft.
In the meantime, a few thoughts from the past few days:

- With the demotion of Pluto's planetary status, the Saved By The Bell where Zack wins the quiz bowl by naming the planets thank to his pneumonic device "MVEMJSUNP" suddenly becomes horribly dated. As do we. The Wolfman put it nicely in an e-mail yesterday after a discussion about how old guys are always running into crowds of people with their cars:

The sad thing is that that's going to be us soon, driving into crowds of people, talking about how there used to be 9 planets, tvs weren't all flat screen when we were young, etc.. Plus, now it would be MVEMJSUN, kids are going to watch it and laugh just the way I laughed when Mr. Angelino told Jack on Three's Company, "Tripper, it's the 70s."

- Bill Simmons wrote a mailbag a few days ago. Take a guess as to whether he answered any e-mail about his whiny, excuse-filled poker column. Go ahead! Take a shot! I'll give you a hint: The answer is the same thing Bill Simmons heard every time he tried to get a girl to hook-up with him in college.
This begs the question: Does Simmons even acknowledge that people think he's an egomaniacal hack or does he attribute the hate-mail he doubtlessly gets to angry Yankees fans? Think about all the other writers on internet sports sites who have mailbags. Every single one puts in at least one or two rips per column. Dr. Z thrives on it. Does Simmons think if he doesn't print it everybody reading will think he's infallible and is loved by all? Somebody needs to answer this question for me. Maybe I'll run into his buddy House tonight in D.C. and he'll straighten all this out.

- Remember that Duke lacrosse case? Yeah, neither did I, until a story appeared in the The New York Times today saying, "[An examination of 1,850 pages of evidence reveals] that while there are big weaknesses in Mr. Nifong’s case, there is also a body of evidence to support his decision to take the matter to a jury."
Among this body of evidence that supports his decision:

The defense has argued that the accuser gave many divergent versions of events that night, and she did in fact give differing accounts of who did what at the party. But the files show that aside from two brief early conversations with the police, she gave largely consistent accounts of being raped by three men in a bathroom.

Translation: After changing her story three times, she finally came up with the "three men in a bathroom" account. The Times article goes on to indicate how a report from a Durham police sergeant, one that was not handed over to the prosecution until well after the players had been arrested, strengthens the D.A.'s case, but that the sergeant recounted those notes from memory because he "took few handwritten notes."
Other nuggets in the story that "support [Nifong's] decision to take the matter to a jury":

* There is no DNA evidence directly linking the suspects to the accuser.
* The array of photographs used to identify the suspects violated generally accepted guidelines for lineups, because it included only lacrosse team members. Defense lawyers have challenged it in court, arguing that all evidence that followed from the identifications should be thrown out.
* One suspect, Reade Seligmann, has what appears to be a powerful alibi, based on a cellphone log and other records that show he left the party early.

Where, may I ask, is the evidence that "supports his decision to take the matter to a jury"? Duff Wilson and Jonathan Glater did a wonderful job reporting their lengthy story, but their assertion that Nifong was right to bring the matter to a jury is totally contradictory to everything they reported. Except for the victim appearing to be in extreme pain, there isn't a single shred of evidence that anything nefarious happened at the lacrosse house that night.
I'm not quite sure how that constitutes a trial. But, then again, I wasn't up for re-election.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 4
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Tight Ends/Kickers/Defense

Unless you get Antonio Gates, your tight end, kicker and team defense does not matter. The end.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 3
Fantasy Football Cheet Sheet: Receivers

1) Chad Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals – 97 cth, 1,472 yds, 9 TD
2) Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers – 103 cth, 1,563 yds, 13 TD
3) Marvin Harrison – Indianapolis Colts – 82 cth, 1,146 yds, 12 TD
4) Torry Holt – St. Louis Rams – 102 cth, 1,331 yds, 9 TD
Johnson, Smith, Harrison and Holt. It could be the name of a stuffy law firm instead of the top of the top of a fantasy draft board. I kind of wish it were a law firm though, because how great would it be to witness Chad Johnson give an opening statement in a three piece suit, resplendent with grills and his blond mohawk. He’d probably spike the gavel and propose to juror #4 after his closing. But I digress.)
Johnson sneaks ahead of Smith on my board because of the (relatively) poor finish he had in ’05. Smith's four highest producing fantasy games all came in the first half of the season and seven of his nine lowest came after November 1. Granted, even when Smith was “bad” he was still great, but Johnson’s 97 catch, 1,500 yard season was the rule, not the exception. Smith will be one of the top fantasy receivers this year, but he’s not scoring 13 TD again.
It’s also consistency that puts Marvin Harrison and Torry Holt in the next two slots. Those two might not finish the year at #3 and #4, but it’s a safe bet they’ll be in the top ten. Because it’s tough to make that same guarantee for any player below them, those two are solid picks.

5) Anquan Boldin – Arizona Cardinals
6) Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals
Nearly every draft board I’ve seen has Larry over Anquan, so I’m going to be contrary for the sake of it and put Anquan ahead of Larry on mine. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Larry Fitzgerald; he was my main sleeper last year and I rode his coattails to the playoffs. But Boldin came on strong in the second half of last season and his name is a lot cooler. In reality, you can’t go wrong with either of these Cardinals. And yes, I realize how absurd that statement sounds. I don’t care if Arizona wins three Super Bowls in a row, praising anything about their organization will always seem strange.

7) Terrell Owens – Dallas Cowboys
Initially I had Owens at #6, but I bumped him down to #7 so Boldin and Fitzgerald could snuggle-in together and I could combine their blurbs. Do something about it.
Owens clearly has the most upside of any receiver available. If he’s on his best behavior, he’ll finish the year in the top three. But I’m not willing to take that risk. Cowboys training camp has had more drama than an episode of Days of Our Lives and it’s foolish to think it will stop there. My advice is to only draft Owens if you’re comfortable with your running back and don’t see a great second RB on the board. Don’t reach for him or you could be burned in November when he’s doing sit-ups on his driveway. Or you could ride him to the championship. I’ve been a big help, haven’t I?

8) Santana Moss – Washington Redskins
Conventional wisdom: Santana Moss, the surprise #2 overall receiver last year, will experience a huge drop-off in ’06 because of the Redskins' acquisitions of Antwaan Randle-El and Brandon Lloyd.
The rebuttal: Santana Moss’ numbers won’t suffer that much because he’ll see less double teams thanks to the Redskins acquisitions of Antwaan Randle-El and Brandon Lloyd.
By the end of last season Santana was getting grabbed more than a cocktail waitress at a Kennedy family function. Teams were practically focusing their entire secondaries on him. With Randle-El and Lloyd to spread things out, Santana should see more single coverage and could be just as valuable a fantasy player as he was last season.

9) Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers
The only season Hines Ward has been a fantasy disappointment is the year he was on my team. I didn’t draft him this year. You do the math.

10) Chris Chambers – Miami Dolphins
If you read yesterday’s blog, you know I’m weary of Daunte, hence Chambers relatively low position on my board. He’ll still be solid but (and I know how ridiculous this sounds) maybe he was better off with Gus Frerrote throwing him balls.

11) Randy Moss – Oakland Raiders
He should be lower, considering how disappointing he was last season playing with a QB who was actually able to throw the ball on target occasionally. Now with Aaron Brooks at the helm, I’m not quite sure how Moss intends to get the ball, unless he’s going to wear the uniform of the opposing team.

12) Donald Driver – Green Bay Packers
Ditto for Driver.

13) Andre Johnson – Houston Texans
14) Joe Horn – New Orleans Saints
15) Derrick Mason – Baltimore Ravens
Call ‘em the comeback kids. Or, in Horn and Mason’s case, the comeback guys over 30.
Don’t sleep on Andre Johnson. No, seriously, I hear the dude is real cranky in the morning. Maybe it’s because I took A.J. in my draft, but I think he’s due for a return to his 2004 self. Take a look at Johnson’s receiving mates last season: Derrick Armstrong, Corey Bradford, Jabar Gaffney, Jerome Mathis and Donovan Morgan. Those guys shouldn’t be cracking the roster of the University of Houston, let alone an NFL team. The addition of Eric Moulds (however old and decrepit as he might be) will take the load of Johnson, who will be the most improved fantasy receiver of the year.
I’m reluctant to recommend Joe Horn after he single-handedly ruined my season last year, but we’ll chalk that up to Katrina and predict Joe makes a good comeback himself in 2006.
As for Mason, he’s reunited with his old buddy Steve McNair. Last time the pair were together and healthy, Mason was one of the best receivers in the game. They’re a little older and more injured now, but they’ll make each other (and the Ravens) better.

16) T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Cincinnati Bengals
I’m rarely comfortable taking a #2 WR higher than a #1, but I make an exception for anybody with 14 letters in their last name.

17) Rod Smith – Detroit Lions
18) Plaxico Burress – New York Giants
19) Roy Williams – Detroit Lions
Roy should improve with a better quarterback, Rod Smith’s numbers shouldn’t take too much of a tumble with Javon Walker joining him on the line of scrimmage and Plaxico Burress might have finished ’05 as the 11^th rated wideout, but his games of 6, 5, 4, 7, 5, 4, 3, 3 and 4 fantasy points should tell you all you need to know. (Almost one-third of Plax’s fantasy points were scored in two games.)

20) Joey Galloway – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21) Javon Walker – Denver Broncos
22) Antonio Bryant – San Francisco 49ers
23) Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts
24) Lee Evans – Buffalo Bills
Flip a coin. One of these players is bound for a big fall (Galloway?), one is due for a huge season (Evans?) and another will spend the year cursing the small hands of his quarterback (Bryant).

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 2
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Quarterbacks

1) Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts – 3,747 yds, 28 TD, 10 INTFantasy football quarterbacks are sort of like refrigerators. Everybody has one, everybody needs one and, in the end, it doesn’t matter how much you spend as long as it keeps the food cold. (The previous statement of course excludes that fridge with the TV built into the door. Because that’s just awesome.)
For instance: Peyton Manning is a near-lock to be a top-three fantasy quarterback. He was the second-best two years ago (yes, Peyton wasn’t the top QB in his 49 TD year) and third-best last year. Overall, Peyton was the 7^th best fantasy player in 2005 and there’s no reason to think this year will be any different. But is it worth it to take Peyton in the top 10? I think not. (Of course, I used my first two picks on Domanick Davis and Reggie Bush this year, so take anything I say with any speck of salt that makes a grain of salt look like a boulder.)
Here’s my reasoning: Peyton has never been the top-scoring fantasy QB in his career. And even though he finishes so highly overall, the difference between Peyton and the 10^th best quarterback isn't nearly as much as between the running back you'll get in Peyton's spot and the one you'll have to settle for if you wait. That made sense in my head.
Peyton scored 283 fantasy points in 2005. Kerry Collins, a quarterback without a job for 2006, scored just 20 points fewer than Peyton, finishing with 263. The immobile Drew Bledsoe had 254 points, a green Eli Manning dropped 260 and even the hobbled Mark Brunell finished the season with 233 after going undrafted in nearly every league. For three points a game you could have had Mark Brunell off the scrap heap in week one instead of using a first-round pick on Peyton Manning.
Instead of getting a top-eight and top-fifteen RB, you’d get a quarterback who outscores Drew Bledsoe by two points a game and a top-fifteen RB. And don’t forget that you still have to get a second RB likely in the third round, when you could have a choice between Corey Dillon, Chester Taylor and Jamal Lewis. Those aren’t terrible backs, but would you rather them and Peyton’s two additional points or a stable corps of backs that you can feel confident in?
Peyton should be atop your fantasy draft board, but I wouldn’t take him until the late-second round (when you can figure out which backs will still be left by the time it comes around to you again).

2) Tom Brady – New England Patriots – 4,110 yds, 26 TD, 14 INT, 1 rsh TD
The steroid-addled, goat-loving, cleft-chinned Golden Boy actually finished ahead of Archie Manning’s second-born loser son in fantasy points last year, so you can feel confident taking him as the second quarterback provided Balco doesn’t raid the Pats locker room in the near future. (You know how Barry Bonds’ head grew when he on the juice? Brady’s chin-dimple has actually gotten so big James Cameron is shooting his next movie in it’s deepest point. This ain’t a coincidence, kids.)
I heard somebody say that the absence of Deion Branch would hurt Brady’s numbers, a statement that presupposes the Patriots have nobody else on their roster who can run a route and stick their hands up to catch the ball from Brady that will be directly on target. Hell, Bill Belichick could probably sign Mike Rumph, convert him to receiver and get him 65 catches in the system. I don’t think they’re going to miss Deion Branch too much in New England. Deion Branch! That shit’s laughable, man. Ha!

3) Eli Manning – New York Giants – 3,762 yds, 24 TD, 17 INT, 1 rsh TD
No, it’s not a typo. Hear me out before you delete this bookmark and send me hate mail. Believe me, I’m no happier about putting Eli at #3 than you are reading it. But these are the facts: Eli Manning was a crappy quarterback in 2005. You were there, you saw it. And if you came to this site during last season, you read all about it. Yet even with all the overthrows, the underthrows, the interceptions and the dorky interviews (seriously, did you see him on PTI the other day? He made Bill Simmons look like Sammy Davis Jr), Eli still somehow managed to finish as the #5 overall QB in traditional scoring leagues. Yeah, I don’t get it either.
Working under the assumption that Eli will be a little better this season, it stands to reason that his fantasy numbers will improve as well. I wouldn’t take him with the 45^th pick (cough, ANTZO, cough), but in the mid-5^th or early-6^th he’ll be a solid pick-up. Now, if your league starts awarding points for looking like an eight-year old, you’ll lock up your championship before the season even begins.

4) Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals - 3,836 yds, 32 TD, 12 INT, 1 rsh TD
If not for the horrific knee injury Palmer suffered in the playoffs, he’d be the #1 quarterback on the board. As it is, I’m reluctant to put him this high for two reasons: 1) Doctors say his injury normally needs 12-16 months of recovery. 2) I guess I didn’t have another reason.
It’s not good that Palmer has kept himself out of preseason games so far. (I don’t quite understand the criticism he’s getting either. Would Marvin Lewis prefer Palmer rush things to get back for a meaningless preseason game? It’s not like he’s unfamiliar with the offense. Why force it? I guess the only way to get on the coach’s good side is to knock-off a pawn shop.) He clearly isn’t physically or mentally ready for football. When he is, he’ll be one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Good luck guessing when that will be.

5) Marc Bulger – St. Louis Rams – 2,297 yds, 14 TD, 9 INT
Bulger put up those numbers in only eight games; if you double them to see what he might have done in a full 16 contests, Bulger would have finished with 308 fantasy points, just one behind #1 QB Carson Palmer.
If Bulger is healthy (and all indications are that he is), he could be a steal in the middle rounds. I suppose it is worth noting that Bulger had never played in 16 games and has missed a total of 11 starts since 2004. (Note: I took Bulger with the 60th pick in my draft. He was the 10th QB taken overall.)

6) Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks – 3,459 yds, 24 TD, 9 INT, 1 rsh TD
For as good a season as Hasslebeck had in ’05, he was still only the sixth ranked fantasy QB. Going with the theory that his ’06 won’t measure up, be wary of taking Hasselbeck too early.

7) Donovan McNabb – Philadelphia Eagles – 2,507 yds, 16 TD, 9 INT, 1 rsh TD
I buy the same fantasy magazine every year (because I respect continuity whilst fearing change) and am always amused by the contradictions found pages apart. I’ve become convinced each position preview has different editors that never see the other’s work.
Case in point, Donovan's preview:

The loss of Terrell Owens will likely be addition by subtraction. Reggie Brown isn’t much of a drop-off, and the passing game will be more offensive without having to force so many passes to T.O.

A few pages later, at the wide receiver rankings, the man who isn’t much of a drop-off from Terrell Owens is ranked #51 (or, 48 spots behind T.O.)
It’s ridiculous to even suggest that Donovan won’t miss Owens. The best year of McNabb’s career, by far, was in Owens first year in uniform. Fantasy-wise, McNabb was always pretty solid even pre-T.O., but don’t expect the 3,900 yards and 31 TD that Donovan had back when he and T.O. used to mock the media by chasing each other down the sidelines. (Ah, how quaint and not-at-all juvenile that became with the benefit of hindsight.)

8) Trent Green – Kansas City Chiefs – 4,014 yds, 17 TD, 10 INT
Can somebody explain to me why Trent Green (the 4^th ranked fantasy QB in ’05) is listed no higher than #12 on every draft board I’ve seen? It seems that every year people sleep on Trent and every year he passes for more than 4,000 yards with a handful of TD.
And why is the departure of Al Saunders a big problem for Green (as has been mentioned in each of the previews I’ve read), but not for Larry Johnson? Whether you like it or not, the success of Johnson and Green are inextricably linked. If Green struggles, defenses will stuff the line and focus on LJ. If LJ struggles, it’s likely Green will be doing the same.
A vote for Larry Johnson is a vote for Trent Green. I’m not as high on LJ as most, but oddly, I’m higher on Green than almost all. Go figure.

9) Jake Delhomme – Carolina Panthers – 3,421 yds, 24 TD, 16 INT
Quick, besides Manning and Brady, which NFL QB has the most TD passes since 2003? If you didn’t guess Jake Delhomme, clearly the subtlety of my question placement escaped you.
The addition of Keyshawn Johnson can only help Delhomme, who should see his interception total drop because he won’t have to force the ball into a main target like he’s had to do in the past (Steve Smith in ’03 and ’05 and Muhsin Muhammad in ’04).

This is where the QB drop-off begins. If you're unable to get any of the top nine quarterbacks, don't rush to take the guys listed below. It's just not worth it. Functional fantasy starting quarterbacks can be found in the later rounds and early on in free agency.

10) Drew Bledsoe – Dallas Cowboys – 3,639 yds, 23 TD, 17 INT
Why does this whole Bledsoe/Tony Romo QB “controversy” seem like nothing more than an attempt by Bill Parcells to steer the conversation away from Terrell Owens’ practice habits? Don’t get me wrong, Bledsoe is an immobile stiff, but he still put up decent numbers in ’05 and should get better in ’06 with T.O. (right up until T.O. sells him out to the press, which will then force Bill Parcells to sit on him).
Tony Romo seems like an alright quarterback (but is a despicable person; not that I know anything about him except that he’s a scratch golfer, but that’s enough for me. It always pisses me off when somebody really good in one sport is also a scratch golfer. It just seems unfair. It’s like Bill Simmons being the greatest sportswriter on the planet and the best poker player. Give some other fellas a chance, huh guys!?!)

11) Michael Vick – Atlanta Falcons – 2,412 yds, 15 TD, 13 INT, 597 rsh yds, 6 TD
Why does nobody criticize Jim Mora Jr. and Greg Knapp for shackling Michael Vick within the confines of the west coast offense? Isn’t this a form of cruel and unusual punishment? And, one more thing, nice work by the correctional board in Virginia for putting a prison so close to Virginia Tech. That really makes it a really easy trip for the graduate assistants when they have to go bail all the Hokie football players out of jail in the middle of the night. It’s just considerate, that’s what it is.

12) Daunte Culpepper – Miami Dolphins – 1,564 yds, 6 TD, 12 INT, 147 rsh yds, 1 rsh TD
Daunte scares me. Not in the way Dakota Fanning does, but there’s still a legitimate fear working here. Why am I worried about a guy who is two seasons removed from throwing for 4,700 yards and 39 TD? And who’s joining a young, well-respected coach. And an All-Pro receiving candidate. And now he can finally look at receivers other than Randy Moss. Wait, on second thought, why isn’t Daunte atop this QB board? Oh right, the fright.
I don't why Daunte isn't higher. I have a feeling that the "Daunte in Miami" story isn’t going to have a happy ending. He’s never been known as the hardest worker, so maybe Nick Saban and he will have tension about that. Maybe he’ll bicker with the play calling if Ronnie Brown gets all the attention. Or maybe the prevalence of water in the Miami area will lead to one too many pleasure cruises. Who knows? But I have a feeling that something’s going to happen, and it won’t be good. Just a hunch.

Instead of going too deep into each position, I’m going to rank receivers and running backs from #1 and #24 and all other positions from #1 to #12 (enough to get a starter). After hitting up wide receivers tomorrow and tight ends/kickers on Thursday, I’ll make a list of sleepers and players to stay away from on Friday. That’s the day my sister has her first fantasy draft and I’m under strict orders to finish this all by then. She threatened to turn my niece into a Patriots fan if I don’t. Little did she know Alexa already knows who her favorite team is.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 1
Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet - Running Backs

"The big three, the big three," that's all anybody can talk about headed into the 2006 fantasy season. By all accounts, there are only three players worth drafting this year and if you don't have one of the top picks you might as well just draft the entire Lions roster and call it a day.
But all this talk about there only being three greats confuses me. This isn't Yalta, people. There is plenty of talent beyond Danie, LJ and Shaun Alexander. And by plenty I mean in spots four through six. Because, in reality, the RBs this year go exactly six deep. After that is the precipitous drop-off that some people think starts at #4.
Each of the "Big Six" have huge question marks headed into the season though. It is with these question marks that we begin Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview Extravaganza (in alphabetical order):

Shaun Alexander
- Seahawks nearly assured of a post-Super Bowl malaise
- Lost offensive line stalwart Steve Hutchinson
- Recently signed big money, long-term deal

Tiki Barber
- Approaching dreaded 2,000 carry plateau
- At 31, is oldest of top six backs

Edgerrin James
- Approaching dreaded 2,000 carry plateau
- Leaves 14-2 Colts for Arizona Cardinals
- No, seriously, Kurt Warner is their quarterback

Larry Johnson
- First season as featured back
- Lost head coach and offensive coordinator in off-season
- Lead blocker and Hall of Famer Willie Roaf retired
- Has been accused of playing soft

Clinton Portis
- Popped out shoulder like Mel Gibson in Lethal Weapon 2
- Between Santana Moss, Antwaan Randle-El, Chris Cooley, Brandon Lloyd, Mike Sellers and Ladell Betts, Portis should carry ball less in 2006.

LaDainian Tomlinson
- Playing with new, young quarterback

Because of all these question marks, this is the first fantasy season I can remember where there isn’t a single drafting position I’d feel comfortable in. Picking #1 forces you to decide between the top three. Picking #2 takes away one of those selections, but leaves you with a coin flip. Picking #3 gives you little choice, unless you want to take a risk. Sitting at #4 is the riskiest position of the draft; players have a choice of about 15 backs that could either saunter to the top of RB rankings or pull a Domanick Davis. It’s more of the same at #5 and #6. And after that? Enjoy 52 yard afternoons from Willis McGahee.
The Big Six (in descending order, because it’s more fun that way):

6) Edgerrin James – Arizona Cardinals – 1,506 rush, 337 rec, 14 TD (2005 stats)
Oh, Edge, how I’ll miss you. For three straight years I’ve had Edgerrin in my 12-team league, but because I’m picking dead last in today’s draft, we won’t be making it four. (There’s still a chance I can grab Edge in my eight-team money league; I’ve had him two years running there.) While I seem a little nostalgic today, I’m not gonna lie: Even if I had the opportunity to draft Edge, I don’t know if I would.
There’s just too many things that can go wrong this year in Arizona. For starters, Kurt Warner isn’t going to last all 16 games, meaning Matt Leinart will be in at some point. I’m a big Leinart fan, but I also know simple math: Young QB + bad offensive line = David Carr.
Edgerrin is also surprisingly bad in short yardage situations. I can’t tell you the amount of times in the past three seasons that I’ve been yelling at the TV when Edge couldn’t get in from eight inches out.
Also, what if one of Edge’s dreadlocks gets caught in the gears when the Cards are moving their field indoors for the game? He's but a simple man from southern Florida. Fields moving in and out of doors on rollers might freak him out a bit.
Here’s another: He’s playing on the freakin’ Cardinals. Who was the last Cardinal running back to be an effective fantasy player? Ah-ha, it’s a trick question, suckers. Because the Arizona Cardinals have never had an effective fantasy back. Ever. If we conservatively estimate that fantasy football was popularized in the mid-‘90s, the best season for a Cards running back was by Adrian Murrell in 1998, when he gained 1,211 yards on the ground and through the air and got in the endzone 10 times. It says a lot that the second best season in that span was put up by what was left of Emmitt Smith.
Edgerrin has been my fantasy rock for three seasons. He completes me. He had me at “what’s crackin?” But he’s a risk in 2006. Oh, the reward will be high, but so, probably, will be Edge.

5) Clinton Portis – Washington Redskins – 1,518 rush, 216 rec, 11 TD
Before the shoulder injury, Portis could have been a top three running back this season. He still can, but it’s not worth the risk, especially on a runner like Clinton who attacks the line of scrimmage and takes a fair share of hits over the course of the season. Only the most naïve Redskins fan is expecting CP to be healthy for all 16 games this season, so you shouldn’t either. But that’s still no reason to take Steven Jackson before snagging Clinton.

4) Larry Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs – 1,750 rush, 343 rec, 21 TD

With Al Saunders and Dick Vermeil gone, the Chiefs will struggle and fantasy owners nationwide will rue the day they picked Larry Johnson #1.
- February 7, 2006

Larry Johnson will be the biggest fantasy bust of all-time. This has been a theory of mine seven months in the making, but its probability (no, that's not the right word) was heightened today by Willie Roaf's retirement. I'm telling you there haven't been this many red flags waving since Stalin marched in Red Square.
- July 28, 2006

It’s one month later, and the red flags are still whipping in the wind. Johnson is the #1 overall player for ESPN.com drafts and sits atop the draft boards of nearly half the guys who call themselves fantasy experts. And, frankly, it’s tough to argue with them. In LJ’s final nine games of 2006, he ran for a total of 1,351 yards and 17 TD. That’s 325 more yards and six more TD than LaMont Jordan had in the entire season (and he’s listed as high as #5 on some boards). So why so low for such a dominating player?
For every player that had question marks above, LJ’s are the biggest. The loss of both Al Saunders and Dick Vermeil totally changes the complexion of the Kansas City Chiefs. Herm Edwards is a defensive coach and the new offensive coordinator, Mike Solari, is an o-line guy. (He worked with Saunders for the better part of the last decade so some might say the transition will be made with ease; but let’s not forget that some coaches might be brilliant working with, say, an o-line but struggle when they get a promotion. The Redskins Joe Bugel is a prime example of this. And that’s no knock of Buges or Mike Solari, either. But some guys are just better in the trenches than they are in the booth.)
Roaf’s retirement also drastically changes the complexion of the Chiefs o-line. When the future Hall of Famer missed chunks of time in 2005 the running attack didn’t suffer greatly, but it forced Tony Gonzalez into blocking duty. With linebackers not focused on Gonzalez’s route running, they were able to stuff more men in the box to contend with Johnson and Holmes. That will happen again this year. Oh, and I didn't even mention Kyle Turley.
Larry Johnson will be one of the most productive fantasy players in 2006. And I wouldn’t have him on my team if you paid me.

3) Tiki Barber – New York Giants – 1,860 rush, 530 rec, 11 TD
On that same day in February when I began hating on Larry Johnson, I wrote that I thought Tiki Barber wouldn’t make it through the 2006 season. My rational was simple: Tiki hasn’t been hurt in four seasons and he’s due.
Consider: In the years 2002 through 2005, Tiki carried the ball 304, 278, 322 and 357 times, respectively. That’s a lot of hits to take, even for a young guy like LDT, but Tiki isn’t that young anymore. As a 31 running back he’s more Julio Franco than Julio Lugo and at some point he’s going to hit the wall that Curtis Martin slammed into last season.
Even so, Tiki gained nearly 2,400 yards and got in the endzone 11 times, amazing considering Tom Coughlin insisted on giving the no-talent, no-hands, no-game Brandon Jacobs all of Tiki’s goal line carries.
If Eli Manning improves at all (and, bite my tongue, he will), it could open up the line even more for Tiki and will lighten his load. I'm going to back-off my prediction of injury and instead put Tiki #3 on my board.

2) Shaun Alexander – Seattle Seahawks – 1,880 rush, 78 rec, 28 TD
Anybody who came to this site last football season knows I’m not the biggest fan of Shaun Alexander. I think he’s selfish, soft and sexy. (Sorry, I needed another “s” word to complete the alliterative trio.) And though he’s due for a huge fall-off from his stratospheric ’05 numbers, he’s still the safest pick in the draft.
This doesn’t mean there aren’t some things to worry about, though. As stated above; the loss of Steve Hutchinson will hurt, as will the inevitable post-Super Bowl funk the Seahawks will find themselves in. And don’t underestimate Alexander’s desire either. He was playing for a big contract last year and he got it in the off-season. Just like Edge and Larry, I think Shaun will have a fine year, but I wouldn’t want him on my team just in case.

1) LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego Chargers – 1,462 rush, 370 rec, 20 TD, 3 pass TD
Of the consensus top three, LDT is the one I’d worry about least. For as much as I like Drew Brees, he’s still Drew Brees. Meaning, unless Philip Rivers is Ryan Leaf, Tomlinson shouldn’t experience too much of a drop off.
LJ might rush for more yards and Shaun might find the endzone, but LDT is a near lock for 1,900 yards, 18 TD and a few surprises. Take him with your top pick. He’s the safest selection in this draft.

After the top six the talent level drops off quicker than Tom Cruise’s career. We’re on the 9^th pick of my draft and I seriously have no clue what sort of dog I’m going to be stuck with at #12 and #13.

7) Ronnie Brown – Miami Dolphins – 907 rush, 232 rec, 5 TD
8) LaMont Jordan – Oakland Raiders – 1,025 rush, 563 rec, 11 TD
My cardinal rule of fantasy football (besides, don’t draft a Cardinal) is: Make sure your #1 running back is on a good team.
A #1 back has to be a consistent performer. The beauty of a guy like Edgerrin is that, even in his bad weeks, he’s still putting up a dozen or so points. The problem with backs like LaMont Jordan, Willis McGahee and Domanick Davis is that their teams are terrible and terrible teams usually are behind in the second half and have to throw the ball to catch back up, thus cutting into the RB’s carries and your points. Backs like this are fine when you have a solid guy to supplement the off-weeks. But, if you any of these cats are your #1, it could be a long season.
This is why I have Ronnie Brown ahead of LaMont Jordan on my draft board. Jordan had a nice season for a pathetic Raiders team in 2005 (the ex-Maryland RB was the 7^th best RB in traditional scoring leagues), thanks, in large part, to his receiving abilities. The Raiders, however, figure to be worse in 2006, thanks to the addition of Aaron Brooks, which will make Randy Moss even more unhappy than he already is and should throw the Raiders offense into quite the funk.
Brown’s Dolphins should continue the success they had in the second-half of 2005 and, by becoming the featured back in Ricky Williams’ absence, should be the main fantasy beneficiary. I was hoping Brown would fall to me with the 12^th pick in my draft, but he was gobbled up at #11. In a few minutes, you’ll see just how devastating that was. Seriously, I’m so depressed right now I can hardly write. My fantasy season, for all intents and purposes, is already over.

9) Rudi Johnson – Cincinnati Bengals – 1,458 rush, 90 rec, 12 TD
Rudi is a fairly consistent performer. He’s good for 1,400 yards, a dozen TD and about as many receiving yards as LaMont Jordan gets in a fortnight. His hands of stone keep him out of third down situations, which is the only negative, minus the fact that he spells his name with an “I”.

10) Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams – 1,046 rush, 320 rec, 10 TD
Anybody else find it amusing that the same pundits who are saying Mike Martz’s departure from St. Louis will provide a boon to Steven Jackson’s numbers and the same people saying Mike Martz’s arrival in Detroit will do the same to Kevin Jones’ numbers.

11) Cadillac Williams – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1,178 rush, 81 rec, 5 TD
Cadillac might have the horsepower of his vehicular namesake, but he wears down quicker than a Soviet era Zaporozhets. Still, he’s going to get a lion’s share of the carries in Tampa and is an adequate #1 back.

After Caddy is where it gets tricky. It’s also where my season fell apart. Let me take you on a journey inside my mind. Please try to ignore the continuous loop of Beyonce’s Crazy In Love video.
Early on I eliminated the thought of taking Peyton Manning with one of my two picks, as Peyton has never finished an NFL season as the #1 ranked quarterback. (Yeah, it’s surprising, I know.) His consistency is great, but if I can get a QB like Jake Delhomme in the sixth round, I'll be thrilled.
I’m against taking a receiver so high, particularly if they tailed off in production at the end of last season (Steve Smith) or are named Terrell Owens (Terrell Owens). This left me with a choice of two running backs. But who?
I crossed Willie McGahee off the list early. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry on a disappointing Buffalo team in 2005 and only snuck into the endzone five times. Seeing as how the Bills best offensive upgrade of the off-season was replacing Eric Moulds with a guy that even the receiver-needy Atlanta Falcons didn’t want (Peerless Price), Buffalo and Willis figure to struggle in ’06 yet again. In a shaky position like mine, I couldn't afford to give Willis alpha-dog status. (Key stat: In a nine week stretch towards the end of last season, McGahee had only one game with more than 82 yards rushing. He had less than 55 in five of those contests.)
Brian Westbrook didn’t make the cut either because he’s more fragile than Vincent Libretti’s mental state (yes, that’s a Project Runway shout out. Shut up.)
I gave serious thought to Julius Jones; my thinking being that T.O. and Terry Glenn would open up the field for him, but even with Keyshawn drawing attention last year Jones couldn’t do much. I’d imagine he’s on a short leash with Bill Parcells also.
Domanick Davis looked enticing at #12, but he had his knee surgically repaired in the off-season and hasn’t practiced in three weeks.
Reuben Droughns caught my eye, but I then remembered Charlie Frye and thought to myself, who is that guy named Charlie Frye who caught my eye. Hov!
And, frankly, that’s it. Who else was I going to pick? There's nobody out there. I was stuck. It took me 23 minutes to make my pick (we have an e-mail draft) and it finally came down to Droughns and Davis and I (oh, I’m so ashamed of this) went with Domanick Davis, busted knee and all.
He had 1,313 total yards in just 10 games last season, so his upside was the highest. I took him over Droughns because Droughns rarely scores and plays for the Browns. And if Davis can get 1,300 yards in 10 games for the worst team in the league, just think of what he can do with the greatest player of all-time, Mario Williams, lined up on the other side of the ball. Seriously, I hate my team so much.
Because I was forced to take an injured bum like Domanick Davis (maybe I’ll write a column about how I just discovered fantasy football is all about luck and, even though I’m such a great player, the luck was against me by getting the 12^th pick. Yeah, that’ll make me feel better!) I figured I needed to make a splash with my next pick, #13. I couldn’t stomach having Davis and a guy like McGahee, Droughns or Jones, so I went out on a limb to open the second round. If I’m right, my season can be salvaged. If he ends up flaming out, I’ll miss the playoffs for the first time in my six years of fantasy. I'm usually a conservative player, but that's easy to do with a guy like Edgerrin James. With a low-pick in a top-heavy draft, one has to make adjustments on the fly. I had to take a risk. Which is why, with the 13th pick on the No More Klinedinst 2006 draft, Chris Chase selected Reggie Bush.

12) Domanick Davis – Houston Texans – 976 rush, 337 rec, 6 TD
13) Brian Westbrook – Philadelphia Eagles – 617 rush, 616 rec, 7 TD
14) Reggie Bush – New Orleans Saints – Rookie
15) Willis McGahee – Buffalo Bills – 1,247 rush, 178 rec, 5 TD
16) Reuben Droughns – Cleveland Browns – 1,232 rush, 369 rec, 2 TD
17) Julius Jones – Dallas Cowboys – 993 rush, 218 rec, 5 TD
18) Chester Taylor – Minnesota Vikings – 487 rush, 292 rec, 1 TD

It just dawned on me that my starting running backs are Domanick Davis and Reggie Bush. I long for the old days when people in my league would take Michael Vick in the first round and the Ravens D in the second. Oh, how I long for it. As it is, there haven’t been any bad picks in my draft yet. A few questionable ones (taking Edgerrin ahead of Tiki and Clinton Portis, for example and Reuben Droughns going before any WR), but nothing like there’s been in the past.
I’m going to call it quits for the day and curl up in a ball and weep, but come back tomorrow for the rest of my RB board and a rundown of either QBs or WRs. Pray for my team. Please.

Frank Beamer Will Be Offering Him A Scholarship Upon Capture

Tangible Proof That Bill Simmons Is A Loser

I've been eagerly awaiting an excuse-filled column from Bill Simmons explaining why he busted out two hours into the World Series of Poker and, today, he didn't disappoint.
According to Simmons, he was eliminated on a bad beat after playing a hand "perfectly". It took this incident to convince Simmons, a man who claims he knows all, that poker is a game of luck. To which I say, "No shit, high-voiced Sherlock."
After sending the link to Simmons' column to The Wolfman, he wrote back, "That article made me sick. I don't even want to talk about it. He's such a little bitch."
I had the same thoughts upon reading it, but I have to talk about. It would be a disservice to you, the procrastinating-from-work reader, not to. So, here goes.
Instead of writing a diatribe against the idiots who think playing poker takes skills beyond simple mathematical ability, I'm going to paste excerpts from Simmons' column and proceed to talk about why he's such an idiot.

I believed Mike McD for eight years. "People insist on calling it luck," he kept saying sarcastically. Sure. We all knew better.
If poker was about luck, as Mike says, the same guys wouldn't be sitting at the final table of the World Series every year, right?

The opener to Bill's whine-fest. The reason I hated the movie Rounders (in addition to the absurd final scene) was that line from Mike McD.
Poker is a card game. Card games are 80% luck. Sure, you have to decide what to bet, how to bet, when to bet and who to bet, but, in the end, nobody has any control over what cards come up. It's a game of chance. That's why it's called gambling.
Plus, the same people don't sit at the WSOP final table every year, even before ESPN brought hold-em to the masses. Look at the stats. It's science.

You know what poker is really about? Luck.
I found this out the hard way in Vegas, on the heels of my abrupt departure from the Main Event at the WSOP. I played a hand perfectly and somehow lost a $20,000 pot. That was it.

Simmons seemed to have no problem with luck when luck came in the form of some ESPN executive actually liking his preening columns and turning him into a writer on the biggest sports web site on the planet. Luck was pretty good for you then, wasn't it Bill?

I was done in two hours. Over the next 10 days, almost 9,000 other players were knocked out -- some for the right reasons, some for the wrong ones.

What, exactly, were some of the wrong reasons people were knocked out? Their use of haircare product? Beverage choice? A professed liking of Ashlee Simpson? Because unless people were knocked out for any of those reasons, I can't think of anything else that would be "wrong". If you don't have the best hand when the all the cards are out, you lose. Period. If somebody gambles stupidly and wins, then they deserve to win because they gambled and won.
I'm sure Bill wouldn't be complaining if he won a four-way parlay involving a Patriots win, the Browns covering, the Redskins/Cowboys going over and Duce Staley scoring a touchdown. He'd just be a genius for figuring that out, odds be damned.

At the final table, no famous pros were left sitting. A former Hollywood agent won the whole thing. Twelve million bucks. Nobody was even surprised.

Wait. Just two paragraphs ago you proclaimed that you weren't aware luck existed in poker until it bit you in the ass. Now you're saying that everybody knows poker is all about luck because they weren't surprised a former Hollywood agent won the whole thing? Which one is it? And does the former Hollywood agent get a five-year grace period from complaining about his own poker luck, a grace period which he'll then turn his back on four months later when the Red Sox get rid of Orlando Cabrera?

See, everyone thinks they know how to play now.

Translation: Only I and Johnny Chan really know how to play. Theo Epstein used to know how to play, but then he didn't make a move at the All-Star Break to keep up with the Cashman's.

Before Mike McD broke onto the scene, Hold'em was an underground game, the forbidden door most gamblers were afraid to open. But repeated cable showings of "Rounders" inspired a new breed of casual players like myself to give the game a try.

Aren't we giving Rounders an awful lot of credit here? What's next, attributing the fall of communism to Rocky IV? And in what way was hold'em ever an underground game? My dad played hold'em at that bastion of underground gambling, Cornell University, in 1970.

ESPN popularized the pocket cam and made the game easier to understand.

Yes, because making the best possible hand out of seven cards required two PhDs from Cal-Tech before Norman Chad explained it to the world.

This summer's Gaming Life Expo featured rows and rows of booths: for countless websites (even Anna Benson has one), start-up magazines and self-published books, for an autograph from your favorite player, for poker-related apparel and merchandise (if you've always wanted a polyester shirt with face cards sewn on the front, this is the place to find it). Skanky models were everywhere handing out free stuff, prompting my buddy Hopper to crack, "What time are they due back at Cheetahs?" The place makes a Star Wars convention look hip. At one point, my friends and I were staring in shock at a booth that featured giant oil paintings of various pros.

At least the people at the Star Wars conventions know they're dorks and embrace it. Simmons is just in denial that he's actually one of the losers he so easily derides.

Thanks to the waves of qualifiers who didn't have to front 10 grand, a different style of play emerged: overaggressive, cocksure, reckless.

If Simmons cared one bit about ethics and being honest with his readers, he'd mention how he paid his $10,000 entry fee before slamming people who won theirs in online qualifiers.
Did Simmons put up the money himself, did ESPN pay for it, was he sponsored by an outside company? It would normally be nobody's business, but when you martyr yourself in a column on a national website, it kind of is.

I mean, how can this be an accurate representation of skill? If you enter a major chess tournament, no matter how much you'd practiced, you'd get wiped out. Same for the Golden Gloves, a PGA tournament, PBA, you name it. But everyone has a chance in the WSOP.

This is the first logical thing Simmons has written in this column. But the question is, did he realize this before or after discovering luck actually played a role in a freakin' card game.

On the bright side, anyone can win. On the flip side, you can say the same about keno.

Wait. So poker is a game of intense skill that only Bill Simmons knows how to play, or it's a game that is total luck like keno. I'm totally confused. Maybe I'll turn on ESPN to see if the pocket cam can explain it to me.

Meanwhile, a wild Internet qualifier was calling everybody, trash-talking, even showing his bluffs after he won. He reminded me of a football QB who keeps throwing deep; eventually, you switch to zone and start to pick off his passes. Basically, he was Jeff George.

Everybody has a friend like this that plays in your home-games. They're unpredictable, irrational and lose more often than they win. But what's the point of knocking their game if they do, in fact, win sometimes? It's not my bag, I tend to play very conservative poker and wait for big hands (which also enables me to steal a few pots here and there). But why should I hate on anybody who has a different strategy, particularly one that I feel will work to my benefit most of the time?
Reckless players don't sneer at conservative ones, so why do conservative players sneer at reckless ones? Because somehow the conservative player is smarter?
Of course not; the conservative player just thinks he's smarter.
It's called gambling for a reason. Every time you make a play, you're gambling. If you're holding pocket aces, your odds of winning increase dramatically. But winning is by no means guaranteed. If you're holding junk, it's tough to win. But you still can, if you gamble and, gasp, get lucky.
Bill Simmons clearly knows this, but he somehow thinks his knowledge of the game gives him the right to complain if others don't conform to his idea of a poker player. And that's as idiotic as a fastball pitcher ripping on a knuckleballer. Different strokes for different folks. At least that's what Gary Coleman told me once.

Holding K-10 suited, I called his $550 bet along with two others. The flop? K-10-6. First guy called. Jeff came barreling in for another $1,200. Third guy folded. And I knew four things: First, I had the best hand (nobody had trips, I could tell from the body language.

If things two through four are anything but: "I'm a douchebag, a tool and have a ridiculously high voice," I'm going to be very upset.

Second, I needed to steal that $3,400 in the middle. Third, having played one big hand in two hours, everyone would know I meant business with an all-in wager. And fourth, with 20 grand in chips, Jeff George might be dumb enough to call me. Which he was. And you know what this nitwit had? A-K.

Damn. Anyway... Now, my poker expertise isn't close to that of super-genius Bill Simmons, but, let's look at the situation.
"Jeff George" has been playing recklessly all day. Bill Simmons has been keeping it close to the vest. After the flop, reckless Jeff has top pair and top kicker. It's not unreasonable at all for him to assume that he has the best hand, particularly because K-10 is the only realistic hand that Simmons can have that beats Jeff (more on that in a minute). Because Simmons has been a tight player, it's possible (even likely) that he doesn't have K-10 because playing K-10 is only acceptable for a tight player in a late betting position. Since Simmons didn't mention which position he was in, I'm going to assume he was one of the first players to bet. (That's a little trick of the dishonest; leaving out key details that normally would be included if said details contradict the dishonest one's thesis. Simmons' thesis: I'm smarter than everybody. Ergo, his position at the table on this hand is not mentioned.)
So, thinking he has the best hand, Jeff George bets $1,200. Simmons, knowing he has the best hand (which, despite his snide comment that he "knew" his was best because of body language, was an easy assumption) goes all-in.
At this point, Jeff George can think one of two things: Either this tight player [Simmons] is trying to bluff (or semi-bluff) at my pot or he's holding K-10 or trips. Those are the only two options. He knows Simmons doesn't have K-6 or 10-6 because he wouldn't have been in the hand with those rags. And trips seems unlikely because anybody with pocket kings or tens would probably have re-raised pre-flop to get out the riff-raff (another reason the "body language" line is so schmuck-like. Oh, there's also a chance Simmons could have had J-Q, thus giving his a straight draw, but since he was playing so tight, he wouldn't have called $1,200.)
Jeff George, for as reckless as he might be (and I'd love to know if his recklessness is a figment of Bill Simmons' imagination), thinks Simmons is playing the semi-bluff and calls the all-in. It's a rational (if misguided) play. (I say semi-bluff because, in all likelihood, he thought Simmons had a pair on the board, at least.) I'm not saying I would have made the all-in call if I was Simmons' opponent, but there were definitely hundreds of dumber calls made in the WSOP. Calling an all-in bet with top pair and kicker against a player who doesn't respect you and could easily be trying to steal a pot isn't as stupid as Bill Simmons wants you to believe.
So what happened (in case you couldn't already tell from Simmons' subtle use of Shakespearean foreshadowing at the top of the column)?

With the odds now significantly in my favor (84.3 percent), I was two favorable cards from taking control of the table. Even in that brief instant -- couldn't have been more than eight to 10 seconds -- I was dreaming about lasting the day, building a nest egg, getting lucky a few more times, maybe even making it through the week …Then, BOOM! It was over.
The dealer turned over consecutive queens, improbably giving us both K-Q pairs, but with an ace kicker against me. The rest was a hazy blur: watching Jeff celebrate in disbelief … muttering, "Wait, did I just lose?" … hearing the jerk next to me say, "You're done" … debating whether to punch the jerk, then deciding against it … eventually stumbling away like Bill Buckner at Shea.

I wonder if Bill Simmons punches like a girl or a baby girl. Hmm, guess we'll never know.
Yes, it was a bad beat that took Bill Simmons out of the tournament and bad beats suck. You're even entitled to sulk for a little after a bad beat. But after a few minutes you man-up and realize that bad beats happen all the time. When you sit down to gamble you lose sometimes even when all the odds are stacked in your favor. That's just what happens.
However, just because it was a bad beat doesn't mean Simmons played the hand perfectly. He didn't, because he lost. Sure, "Jeff George" made a call that defied mathmatical logic, but if Simmons knew Jeff was so reckless why did he go all in to show everybody that "he meant business?" If Jeff George was as reckless as Simmons' claims, proving to him that he had good cards couldn't have mattered much. Everybody else was already out of the hand, right?

It's one thing to get outplayed. It's another to lose to a reckless idiot. But that's poker in the 21st century: You need to be lucky. Period. I know Mike McD disagrees, but only because he's trapped in a suddenly dated movie.

That's not poker in the 21st century, that's poker ever since it's been invented. Again, they call it gambling for a reason.
And who are you, Bill Simmons, to act like you belong at the WSOP more than others? What has your contribution to the sport been? In which smoke-filled rooms did you hone your poker craft? I'm not getting the sense of entitlement that enables Simmons to believe he belongs in the World Series more than, say, Ben Affleck or this Jeff George character. (For that matter, how did Simmons know this cat was an internet qualifier? Again, it's not mentioned. Internet qualifier definitely carries a negative connotation. But maybe not as much as "guy who put the 10 grand entry fee on his expense account.")
Bill, you're part of the problem you're whining about. You are what you hate; the new guy who thinks he knows everything about poker just because he played in college and has sat at the tables in Vegas and AC a few times.
You're an idiot and a hack. And since you lost to Jeff George, that must make you Andre Ware or Browning Nagle. Wait, those are bad examples because at least those guys had talent at some point in their lives, which is more than I can say about you, Bill Simmons. Loser.

Oh, It Will Be Quite The Manic Monday, Susanna Hoffs

Monday begins Chris's Sports Blog comprehensive 14-part NFL Preview Extravaganza. Check back then for fantasy football draft boards, various thoughts on the season and a complete preview for all 32 NFL teams.
Until then, a few predictions to tide you over. (There's a chance I might post tomorrow, so come back. I might even write about Lonny Baxter for my man Ake.)
* The Sox will lose three out of their five games against the Yankees. They need to win three of five to stay afloat in the A.L. East though.
* Tiger Woods will win the PGA Championship by two strokes over Billy Mayfair.
* A scuffle will break out in the Jets huddle during their preseason game against the Redskins when three young receivers fight over who gets to be covered by Mike Rumph.
* That creepy JonBenet guy will be exposed as a fraud; which will make his "confession" all the more creepier.
* On the list of most depressing sports news of the week, the release of Wake Forest's basketball schedule comes in a close second behind Clinton Portis' injury. The road game at Bucknell was announced a while ago, but it still makes no sense. And the lack of national television exposure was expected, but only four games??!! I guess I'm going to have to spring for the package again. And Comcast better pick up ESPNU so I can watch the Deacs annual loss to Clemson. Four games on national TV? Wow, it's startling how quickly Wake Forest basketball has fallen out of favor. I'll probably rant a little more on this tomorrow.
* You won't go read the feature on CP in this month's Esquire, even though I'm suggesting it right now. I've gotta say, it's pretty hilarious and makes me like Clinton even more than I already do, but it also leaves me a little confused. My mom once asked me if Portis was, well, Jeter-like. In no uncertain terms I told her that Portis certainly wasn't and used the stripper pole in his basement as evidence. But after reading the article... I just don't know. Not that there's anything wrong with that, of course.

Maybe He'll See 2Pac In Thugz Mansion

Does anybody else find it weird that at the end of Angels in the Outfield Christopher Lloyd goes out of his way to mention that Tony Danza's character is going to die soon? I mean, what purpose does that serve other than to get a cheap shot in at smokers? Does it make his great pitching performance in the division clinching win any more special that he doesn't have long to live? I don't get it. I really don't.

Redskins Trade For Mike Rumph

And I'm glad to say I'm handling the news with typical grace and aplomb.

For those unfamiliar with my feelings on Mike Rumph, click on his name to search this site for a few of the times I've mentioned him. For some reason the Blogger search tool is pretty weak, which is odd considering Blogger is run by Google, so you won't get all my Rumph rips from the past 2+ years. Here's a brief sample though:

When Mike Rumph and Roy Williams square-off, there is only one winner: Society. Oh, and anyone who has Brandon Lloyd or Terry Glenn on their fantasy teams.
-September 23, 2004

This brings us to Nate Burleson, who put up the best numbers for a receiver playing with Randy Moss since Cris Carter retired, but now finds himself “the man” in Minnesota. Without the luxury of playing against the Mike Rumph’s and Nick Harper’s of the NFL, Burleson will have a rude awakening.
- August 23, 2005

By the way, this is the second straight year a marquee free agent cornerback from the Redskins was burned by Palmer and Chad Johnson. Last year the pair torched Champ Bailey for three TDs and yesterday Fred Smoot did his best Mike Rumph impersonation in his home debut for the Vikings.
- September 19, 2005

And not to take anything away from Donovan and T.O., but did you see Mike Rumph's coverage on Owens' second touchdown? I give Mike Rumph a hard time, mainly because he's Mike Rumph. On this play he shows why he's so Rumphian - With the ball in the air and T.O. slowing to catch it, Rumph comes over to help on the coverage and has a decision to make. He can:
1) Make a play on the ball, which is hanging up in the air like a puffy cloud.
2) Get behind Owens, wait the ball to touch his hands and then pop him, which could cause the ball to jar loose and force an incompletion or fumble.
3) Play like a corner and try to swat the ball away.
Rumph declines and chooses answer #4: He run in front Owens, looks up to see him catch the ball, then continues to watch as his own momentum takes him towards the sidelines as Owens trots to the endzone.
Watch the play if you can, it will be on Inside the NFL. Nobody will mention how poorly Rumph played it, but it's one of the more remarkable things I saw all day.
- September 19, 2005

Decisions, decisions… Do I harp on the pitiful play of Champ Bailey and the Denver secondary (who should be forced to watch every dope in the media proclaim Eli Manning the greatest tantrum-throwing, draft-avoiding quarterback since John Elway, since it was they who lost the game for the Broncos on Sunday. Seriously, how do they let Plaxico Burress catch that jump ball in the endzone, watch Jeremy Shockey get wide open on the game’s final drive and allow Manning’s final touchdown pass to stay in the air for 15 minutes and then softly land in Amani Toomer’s hands, despite five white jerseys being within one step of him? Did they sign Ade Jimoh, Mike Rumph and Stanley Richard or something?) or make the fairly obvious statement that the Broncos would be 6-1 and sitting comfortably atop the AFC East if Jake Plummer would stop pussyfooting around and shave the damn beard to reveal the magnificence that is his bewhiskered nose-tickler.
- October 25, 2005

Why am I tempted to take St. Louis here? Jacksonville is 3rd in the Chaz Rankings and I rip on the Rams more than Mike Rumph.
- October 28, 2005

However, for as much shit as I give Mike Rumph, his acquisition by the 'Skins actually isn't that terrible. Oh, it's terrible, but not as terrible as you'd (or I'd) expect.
Washington gave up Steve Spurrier's former second-round pick Taylor Jacobs to get Rumph. I've been ripping Jacobs since he let an injured toe keep him out of his rookie training camp. Here's what I wrote about him last January in my "State of the Redskins" address:

Taylor Jacobs, the final legacy of the immortal Steve Spurrier era, makes the Eagles receiving corps look like All-Pros and he will most definitely be gone [in 2006].

Considering Jacobs almost certainly was going to make that prediction come true by being cut before the season began, that the Redskins were able to get anything for him, even a stiff like Rumph, is sort of miraculous.
The thing with Rumph is, he can't get any worse. And maybe by playing with a much better defense under a much better coach with a lot fewer responsibilities (Rumph figures to be used solely in nickle and dime coverages), he won't be as bad as he's been in the past.
Yet even with that rare bout of optimism, I now have a new least favourite Redskin, for the moment anyway. David Frost, consider yourself lucky. Maybe I'll be taking my head out of the oven after all (especially with this somewhat encouraging Clinton Portis update from renowned orthapedic specialist James Andrews.)

Clinton Portis Dislocates Shoulder In Preseason Opener

And I'm glad to say I'm handling the news with my typical grace and aplomb.

I Don't Care If It's Fake

Via Deadspin.

Bengals Said To Be Interested In Maurice Clarett

The Maurice Clarett tale is a sad one; from freshman wunderkind to Grey Goose-chugging felon in the blink of an eye. Imagine how tragic the story would have been if the police hadn't stopped Clarett before he did whatever it was he set out to do though.
One doesn't wear travel with four guns amd a hatchet while wearing a bulletproof vest unless they're a member of Bones Thugs-N-Harmony or about to kill somebody. From the phone calls Clarett made earlier in the evening, it's probably not too much of a stretch to think that his night would have ended with him turning the gun on himself following the carnage.
That's all I'll say about Clarett since others have done it much better than I can. Tom Friend's piece on ESPN.com is excellent, as is Michael Wilbon's column in today's Washington Post. (I became a big fan of Friend back in 2002when he wrote a column defending Daniel Snyder that included this paragraph:

Most of you Dan Snyder-bashers have never lived in D.C. You’ve never greeted Billy Kilmer at Dulles after he’s whupped Dallas. You’ve never watched George Allen eat victory cake at Duke Zeibert’s. You’ve never bought Sonny a Pabst Blue Ribbon at the Dancing Crab. You’ve never felt RFK Stadium shake under your boots. You’ve never seen John Riggins bow at midfield. You’ve never had Dexter Manley order you to cheer. You’ve never watched Darrell Green give 30-yard head starts to Tony Dorsett and Eric Dickerson and Emmitt Smith -- and catch them all. You’ve never been thanked by Joe Gibbs for going hoarse.

It gets me every time.)
Last thing about Clarett. The Associated Press has circulated a photo of Clarett's front car seat at the time of his arrest (below).

It's all there. The assault rifle, handguns, extra clips, the now-infamous Grey Goose bottle and a CD of prison inmates singing children's songs (seriously). What caught my eye though was, amid all the debacherous clutter, Maurice Clarett had a lint roller chillin by his side just in case things get a little fuzzy in the gunfight. Or perhaps Clarett is just a really friendly armed robber and offers to get the sweater-pill off his victims after relieving them of their wallets and jewelry.

Stare At The Spelling Of "Cincinnati" For A While. It'll Weird You Out.

Today, I had planned on answering PTI's questions. Actually, I had done more than planned on it; last night in an insomniatic stupor, I did it, just about finishing up with a lengthy post that touched on everything from how other feline animals are probably jealous of how many teams' mascots are tigers to what kind of product Matt Leinart uses in his A.C. Slater-esque hair. And don't act like you wouldn't have been interested in either of those discussions.
But this morning, my ol' Wake Forest IBM Thinkpad hit the skids and crashed harder than the '29 stock market. Since I erased PTI from my DVR any possibility of redoing the column is impossible. (There's no need to point out that I can watch the episode on ESPN360 or download the free podcast on iTunes, the DVR-erasing was merely an excuse because I really don't have the will to once again muster the energy to write a scathing diatribe against Marvin Lewis. Except for this: Has any coach's lovefest with the media ended as quickly as Lewis'? By all accounts, the press should be bowing at the alter of Lewis after he (and Carson Palmer, mainly) turned the Bengals from a sorry franchise into a playoff contender. The media was already all over Lewis' jock before he took the job for numerous reasons and now that he's sort of proved them right (his much-heralded defense is actually the weak-link in Cincy, so make your own judgment) he should be the subject of 1,200 word odes in Sports Illustrated written by Michael Silver. Instead, Lewis is presiding over a team that makes the '78 Raiders appear civilized and seems to be doing absolutely nothing about it. The media, like they always do, has turned on him and branded Lewis as a Barry Switzer type, a coach without control and no desire to gain any. It's remarkable what a few taser shootings can do for ones image.)
Anyway, some other thoughts:

Goodell Named NFL Commissioner
When Pete Rozelle retired he recommended Paul Tagliabue as his successor. When Paul Tagliabue retired he recommended Roger Goodell as his successor.
Knowing little else about Roger Goodell, that seems good enough for me.
It always fascinates me when someone like Goodell goes from relative anonymity to instant fame in the course of a few days. It's almost like he ceased to exist for 47 years and now, with this huge break, his life will beign. That he was Tagliabue's right-hand man for the better part of two decades is irrelevant because we didn't know him then.
Goodell, in fact, has an interesting family story that was recounted in today's excellent Washington Post feature written by Les Carpenter and Mark Maske (read it):

In 1968, Gov. Nelson Rockefeller of New York appointed [Goodell's father, Charles] to the Senate after Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated. The choice backfired on Rockefeller when Goodell went to Cornell University to meet with a group of African-American students who were holding a sit-in. The students blistered the senator with pointed questions about the Vietnam War in an exchange that shocked Goodell so much that upon returning to Washington, he introduced legislation that would stop funds for the war.

To Rockefeller and the White House of Richard M. Nixon, this move was seen as almost mutinous, so much so that Goodell had to work proactively to stave off a Rockefeller motion to have him removed from the Senate at the state's Republican convention. Ultimately, his war stand cost him and two years after being named to the seat, he was defeated in the 1970 election by James Buckley, who ran as a member of the Conservative Party.

Man, G. Gordon Liddy must be pissed.

Somebody In Cincinnati Is Mad. Luckily, This Person Isn't On The Bengals.
At least Jim Bowden is never boring. Reds reliever (and former National) Gary Majewski was placed on the DL earlier this week amid allegations from Cincy GM Wayne Krivsky that Bowden hid Majewski's shoulder injury while completing an eight player deal that sent Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez (among others) to D.C. in exchange for Majewski and rookie Bill Bray. John Fay writes in The Cincinnati Enquirer:

Majewski, a 26-year-old right-hander, has pitched poorly since he came to the Reds. His ERA with the team is 12.54.
Majewski said Monday that he has been suffering from tendinitis since March and that he was given a cortisone shot just days before the July 13 trade.
That was news to Reds officials, who say the team did not know about the cortisone shot until Monday.
Had the Reds known about Majewski's tendinitis, Reds medical director Dr. Tim Kremchek said Tuesday, they would have taken a closer look at the pitcher's health before completing the eight-player deal.

Fay goes on to write that an MRI would have shown nothing wrong with Majewski's shoulder and the deal would likely have gone through even with the information.
Now, my thoughts on Jim Bowden are clear. And I can guarantee he was shady in his conversations about Majewski's health. But, there are a few facts worth noting:
1) Majewski pitched for the Nats up until the time of his trade.
2) Majewski pitched for the Reds up until Monday.
3) Majewski doesn't have an injury. He placed on the DL with "shoulder soreness".
4) MLB executive VP Rob Manfred said the policy on trades is "caveat emptor" - buyer beware.
While I'm inclined to think Bowden screwed the Reds, Krivsky probably screwed himself by not asking the right questions. If Bowden lied about Majewski getting a cortisone shot, then baseball should take action. If Krivsky didn't ask about whether Majewski was receiving medical treatment on his shoulder, then that's his fault. He didn't do his due diligence, much like Bowden didn't when he traded for Brian Lawrence last season (the team was too cheap to do an MRI on Lawrence. He is out for the year with a torn rotator cuff).
Bowden is probably a snake, but Krivsky is likely a moron. And quotes like this don't help:

Hopefully, when people are dealing with us, they feel like we're being straight up. I want people to feel like they're being dealt with honestly. For me, Wayne Krivsky, credibility is paramount.

In addition to asking better questions before making trades, Krivsky probably needs to brush up on why we, humans, use pronouns.

While You Were Out

The sports page in August is sort of like a long stretch of highway in Nevada. Boring, barren and with the occasional advertisement for escort services. Yet, as luck would have it, the second I stepped foot on the beach in South Carolina the news started pouring in from D.C. and I, without cable, internet or telegraph, was out of the loop. Here's a rundown of the goings-on in the Nation's Capital that I missed.
In no particular order:

Jim Bowden Trades Livan Hernandez
Why this didn't happen before the "trade deadline" is anyone's guess (here's mine: Jim Bowden is a moron), but getting Livo's $7 million off the books for next season was a pretty nice accomplishment for Jimmy B. That he got two solid, if unspectactular, minor leaguers in return is merely a bonus.
Still, Bowden couldn't leave well enough alone after dealing his ace so he dropped in these two nuggets while talking to the press after the trade (dressed in what appeared to be a tuxedo shirt with a collar that would have been considered too wide in 1974):

"Obviously it's tough to trade a Livan. We love Livan, but we're not here to win tomorrow. We're here to win for the long term."

"When you look at our ballclub and what our record is, none of us are satisfied. We have to turn it around. . . . With our farm system in the situation that it's in, we have to find ways we can get it better and get building blocks."

To recap; Bowden says the Nats' goal is to plan for the future. And to do that, they need building blocks in the farm system. And, apparently, Alfonso Soriano's bat for nine more weeks. Because the memory of his sweet, sweet swing will really help the Nats in the 2009 pennant race.

Comcast Agrees to Air Nationals Games
For those who were unaware, a majority of cable subscribers in the Washington D.C. area have been unable to watch Nationals games since the team debuted in the city last April. On Friday, the two sides finally agreed to a deal and Comcast will begin showing MASN on September 1.
To make a long story short; Bud Selig really wanted a team in D.C. yet was mortified of Peter Angelos' deep pockets and legal connections. Angelos didn't want a team to infringe on the Orioles' territory (obviously) so he threatened a lawsuit unless he was compensated. Selig bit and guaranteed the sale price of the O's should Angelos ever sell the team and, more importantly, gave Angelos a sweetheart deal on the cut of a proposed regional sports network involving the Orioles and Nationals.
Currently Angelos gets 90% of the take from the network, a percentage which will drop to 70% over the next ten years (the Nationals owners get the rest). This is the only situation in MLB where one team's TV rights are owned by another team. It's insane and is yet another example of the spinelessness of Bud Selig. If Selig were in the mob, he would have become the first rat in history to spill the beans without getting arrested. He'd have just starting spouting off information while walking by two policeman sitting in a diner.

Bullets Decline to Match Jared Jeffries Offer Sheet
As if the fact that Isiah Thomas made any offer wasn't enough to convince Ernie Grunfeld not to match the Jared Jeffries contract, the Bullets GM eventually decided that $30 million was too much for a player who has averaged six points in his four-year NBA career.
ESPN.com's John Hollinger says Jeffries was one of the worst starters in the NBA last season, a distinction that currently makes him the second-best player on the Knicks.
I'm not a huge Bullets fan, but when I heard they were even considering giving a stiff like Jeffries $30 million I was amazed at how upset I was. I've been calling Jeffries soft since he was pushed around by Chris Wilcox in the 2002 NCAA Championship and the ex-Indiana star has done nothing to convince me otherwise during his unimpressive stint with the team that drafted him 11th in that year's draft. (I was, of course, upset with the Jeffries pick when it happened, mainly because he was Jared Jeffries. But as the draft unfolded I was holding out hope that Caron Butler would fall to the Bullets. He went immediately before Jeffries though yet now, coincidentally, is on the team as is the other player I wanted the Bullets to take (in the second round), Darius Songaila. (They took Rod Grizzard instead. In fairness, look how bad that draft was. Besides Yao, Amare and Tayshaun, it's bust-city.))

Sean Taylor Fined By NFL for ATV Incident
Good to see Sean's already in mid-season form.

Right Near The Beach

That's where I've been; at the beach, hence the lack of posts for the past few days. I had planned on mentioning my departure last Tuesday before I left, but my day, for all intents and purposes, ended at 1:00 that afternoon right after I heard a Billy Ocean block on an XM station. If hearing "Carribean Queen," "Loverboy" and "Get Outta Dreams, Get Into My Car" in a row isn't a good reason to crack open multiple beers, I don't know what is.
So, anyway, I'm back. I'd say I'm better than ever, but I was pretty damn great before I left. Check back tomorrow for some thoughts on the past six days.

Let The Blanda-Watch Begin!

A practically giddy Wolfman passed along this morsel earlier today:

Brett Favre fired an incredible five interceptions Monday afternoon in practice. Cornerback Charles Woodson picked off Favre three times.
-- Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

I don't know what amuses me more; the thought of Favre breaking George Blanda's career interceptions record during the Packers nationally televised Thursday night game on December 21 or that the Wolfman goes to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's website to get Brett Favre updates.

Let Me Reiterate: Jim Bowden Is An Idiot

I've had some time to settle down from my Jim Bowden-induced rage and, lo and behold, the non-deal for Alfonso Soriano still stinks. In an attempt to work myself back up into frothy indignation, here are some more thoughts about the dumbest move in recent sports history.
Alfonso Soriano wants a no-trade clause in his next contract. Nationals president Stan Kasten has never given a player a no-trade clause in his two decades as a sports executive. Ergo, the Washington Nationals will not be re-signing Alfonso Soriano in the offseason.
This has a three-pronged effect. First, the Nats will get two first-round picks in the 2007 draft as compensation for Soriano's free-agent departure. With those picks, Jim Bowden will likely select two unproven high school players. In effect, Soriano will have been "traded" for those two young, unproven players. Today, Bowden could have had at least two proven minor leaguers and possibly one major league arm. He wouldn't have gotten what he expected in the Soriano trade, but at least he would have had something. Now, Bowden has nothing except for the possibility of having a major league player in 2011, long after his tenure as Nationals GM is over. (But even that's a remote possibility because young baseball are notoriously unpredictable. In the 1996 draft only seven of the 30 players taken in the first round are what you would call "solid" Major Leaguers and that's being nice to Travis Lee.)
So, in essence, in 2007 the Washington Nationals will have absolutely nothing to show for the Alfonso Soriano trade. As a result, the team will be even worse than this season (they currently sport the sixth-worst record in the bigs) and attendance will far even further in their final (?) year at RFK.
I can't say this enough: Alfonso Soriano still being a National is mind-boggling. As I wrote earlier today, Bowden's ego got in the way of the team. He has to be fired at the end of the year and Stan Kasten needs to hire a general manager with the sense to build a team the right way; with young players. It won't put butts in the seat next year but grass doesn't grow right away either. It's a process. The only process Jim Bowden believes in is his own ability to turn water into wine.
This line from Barry Svrluga's Washington Post article about the non-trade cracks me up:

Bowden was working under the guidelines set by new Nationals owner Theodore N. Lerner and Kasten to build a strong foundation of young players that can be the heart of a team for years to come.

I guess those are pretty liberal guidelines. Between getting rid of Gary Majewski and Bill Bray and not dealing Soriano, Bowden seems like a crotchety old man who's always yelling at kids on his lawn.
Alright, I've succeeded in riling myself up. Dammit. I'm going to get a beer.

An Anagram of "Jim Bowden" Is "Dim. New Job?"

Sometimes the word "unbelievable" isn't really applicable in a given situation because said situation is actually totally believable, even if its a surprise. That's sort of the way I feel about Jim Bowden's baffling decision to not trade Alfonso Soriano. Unless it comes out that the Nats are currently in negotiations with the star on a long-term contract (which is highly unlikely), Bowden will have stymied the growth and development of the Washington Nationals simply because he lost a pissing contest.
There's only one reason why Alfonso Soriano is still a National: Jim Bowden's massive ego. For weeks Bowden has been telling everybody he would unload Soriano and get a king's ransom in return. He seemingly believed that he'd get two to three top prospects simply because he said he would. Yet the rumor mill was abuzz with talk that Bowden's asking price was far too steep, thus scaring away potential suitors. But Bowden seemed confident that at the last second teams would pull the trigger. When they didn't, Bowden couldn't bring himself to give up Soriano for less than the inflated asking price he had in his head.
Once again, Jim Bowden has made an illogical decision that seriously hamstrings the Nats ability to field a legitimate contender in 2008. It's insane. I don't get it.
Any other GM would have unloaded Soriano for whatever was being offered. But other GMs put their team ahead of their ego. Too bad for the Nats that Jim Bowden doesn't.

Alfonso Soriano? More Like Alfonso Soria-YES!

The MLB trade deadline is in less than 24 hours and Alfonso Soriano is still a member of the Washington Nationals. This is not a surprise, as there was little doubt Jim Bowden would wait until the last minute to deal his coveted left fielder, mainly because doing so would have taken the limelight away from Bowden's favorite person (himself).
I, on the other hand, hate Bowden. He's an egomaniacal self-promoter who probably spends more time doing media interviews than scouting prospects and working the phone (whoops, I mean Blackberry, as Bowden has reminded us so much of late, acting as if he is the only man on the planet cool enough to have one. Name-dropping technology is so weak.)
But I wouldn't care if Bowden was a prick, as long as he was a good GM. He's not though. Not even close. Almost all of his moves as Nats GM have been atrocious (signing Cristian Guzman, trading Saul Rivera, letting go Jamey Carroll, etc.), yet Bowden still has a solid reputation in town all because of the Soriano deal. That the Rangers were just doing the same thing Bowden is attempting to do now (getting something for Soriano before they lost him in free agency) has gone largely unmentioned. Anyway, one good deal makes not a GM, as Bowden has shown during the current Soriano courtship.
Bowden is to journalists as moths are to flames and over the past month he couldn't resist spouting off about how many offers he was getting for Soriano. By conducting negotiations through the media, Bowden's intended effect of getting teams to bid against each other actually worked in reverse. Because the league's other 29 GMs were hearing how high Bowden's asking price was, they held back their offers knowing Bowden's price would have to come down as the trade deadline approached for a number of reasons.
First, it's unlikely Soriano will get a contract extension before tomorrow because the lure of the open market is too great. Secondly, despite Bowden's repeated declarations that he'll keep Soriano if he doesn't get an acceptable offer, nobody is buying the bluff (more on that in a second). Bowden wants everybody to think he has a number of options regarding Soriano. The problem is, he only has two:
1) Trade Soriano to the team who offers the most.
2) Sign Soriano to a five-year contract.
Oh, and he has 22 hours to do this.
Option #2 is highly unlikely. Soriano wants a no-trade clause and Nats President Stan Kasten has never given one. Plus, Soriano's agent knows that a bidding war for his client's services could ensue this November. (Although, the Yankees acquisition of Bobby Abreu would seem to keep them out of the possible Soriano free-agent sweepstakes. Then again, when the Yanks don't win the World Series again this year, Steinbrenner is likely to do this, so anything is possible.)
This means, Bowden realistically only has one option and that is to trade Soriano. That fact seriously hinders any bargaining power Bowden thought he had. Unless some team makes a solid offer that Bowden can use in his negotiations with other teams, his hands are tied.
As for Bowden keeping Soriano and letting him hit the open market in November, I want to believe that said option is not a legitimate possibility. The Nats have to get what they can for Soriano and they have to do it now. If he stays and then bolts, those two first-round draft picks they'll get in compensation would be like winning $5 in the lottery. All sports drafts are highly unpredictable, but baseball's is the most. And it's not like Bowden values high draft picks; after all, he just traded the player he took with the 13th pick in 2004 (Bill Bray).
Livan Hernandez's name was also been tossed around in trade discussions with the most likely destination being in New York with the Mets. The old adage is "never trade a player within the division" but only slightly less well known is this: "Never trade a player within the division and then offer to pay part of his salary."
This has actually been suggested, the Nats taking on some of Livo's $7 million salary for 2007 while he plays in New York. I'd dismiss such speculation as kooky talk, but we are talking about the guy who signed Cristian Guzman to a four-year, $16 million deal.

(And the Orioles are insane for turning down a Miguel Tejada for Ervin Santana/Eric Aybar trade. This is why the hO's hang out in the basement with the Devil Rays while Peter Angelos fiddles. Any time I get too down on Bowden, I just remember that at least the Nats owner isn't that disgrace to Greeks everywhere.)