But I Only Took 34 Vicodin

Much like my idol Terrell Owens, I spent some time this week in a hospital. The only difference is, my publicist isn't a gum-chewing, cliche-spewing moron. Oh, and I only have about 8,624 reasons to live.
After a brief procedure this morning and convincing my doctor to release me today, I'm doing fine but will spend the rest of the afternoon laying on the couch and catching up on Season 2 of Lost.

Quick picks for the week:
Atlanta over Arizona
Dallas over Tennessee
Indianapolis over New York Jets
Houston over Miami
Minnesota over Buffalo;
Carolina over New Orleans
Baltimore over San Diego
Kansas City over San Francisco
St. Louis over Detroit
Cleveland over Oakland
Jacksonville over Washington
Cincinnati over New England
Chicago over Seattle

Last Week: 12-2
Season: 34-14

T.O.D.?

Hmmm, don't think anybody saw this one coming. I wonder if Peter King still thinks Dallas signing Terrell Owens was a great move.
I'm not sure what to make of the reported suicide attempt by Terrell Owens. For starters, should we even believe the internal Dallas police report that is entirely based on speculation and heresay? At this moment (2:00 p.m. on Wednesday) there are four facts supporting the suicide theory: 1) Owens reportedly told police he had only taken five of his 40 pain pills prior to last night. When police found him, the bottle was empty. 2) Owens went to the hospital where doctors attempted to induce vomiting. 3) Owens' publicist allegedley told a 911 dispatcher that he had attemped suicide. If this alleged attempt were a criminal trial, the jury wouldn't convict. Yet, all these facts appeared in a sworn statement. Interesting, to say the least.
This is not to say that Owens didn't try to kill himself though. All the denials from his publicist and friends (including Deion Sanders, himself a member of the 'attempted suicide' club) contain the normal spin but don't include any hard answers like where all of Owens' other pills went (I'm looking in Michael Irvin's general direction or maybe T.O. had to give Drew Rosenhaus 10%) and why he told police that he was trying to harm himself.
Either way, the suicide reports came from somewhere. Say what you will about the reliability of the mainstream media, but there's no way any reputable news outlet would be running these stories if they were any ambiguities in the police report. This isn't like the Duke lacrosse case where it's a matter of he said/she said. In this case it's he said/he said. Owens told police he was trying to harm himself so, even if it accidental, he brought the suicide talk upon himself. (As did his publicist.) Maybe he attempted it, maybe he didn't. Either way though, I'd say it was highly unlikely that Owens actually planned on dying last night.
The timeline is still a little hazy, but early reports indicate Owens ingested the pills at 7:30 and his publicist called 911 at 7:47. What kind of person tries to kill himself when they know that somebody is coming over 15 minutes later? (For that matter, what kind of person with a publicist tries to kill himself?) That's like trying to hang yourself from a twig.
Maybe I'll chime in with more after T.O. appears in front of the press in 75 minutes. One on hand, I feel bad for him and don't want to make jokes because he's obviously not a mentally healthy individual. (Perhaps he repeatedly hit his head on his driveway while doing crunches.) But, on the other hand, this is exactly what T.O. wanted, whether it was an actual suicide attempt, a cry for help or a publicity/sympathy stunt. His name is in the news. Everybody's talking about him. He's once again on center stage.

Update (4:15 p.m.): Well, that was a sham. T.O.'s press conference, where he denied a suicide attempt, depression, police reports and the moon landing was quite a spectacle. Owens himself performed admirably and came across as somewhat believable.
His publicist, on the other hand, looked like a 3rd grader giving an oral report on a book he had never read. She had her arms crossed as she walked to the podium, kept fidgeting in her chair and issued non-denial denials for the entire four or five minutes she was on stage. She also used the words "um", "like" and "you know" like she was a reject from Laguna Beach.
How this woman got to a publicist is beyond me. At one point she said she didn't remember taking pills out of Owens' mouth, as she claimed to police. And when asked whether T.O. had ever told her he was depressed, she said, "he has $25 million reasons to be alive." That line was as canned as a Jim Nantz Masters call.
Remember, the police have no reason to lie about this. And the 911 transcript, which will likely surface soon, will be evidence that Ethridge thought T.O. was trying to kill himself. Whether that was a correct assumption, perhaps we'll never know. But we do know Ethridge didn't speak one word of truth in the press conference today. All I can say is, Shawna from Entourage never would have let this shit happen.
So, after two press conferences (the other was by the Cowboys and Bill Parcells) we are still no closer to the truth than we were before. I'm inclined to believe Owens didn't try to kill himself. But I can almost guarantee his publicist thought he had. Evidently, Owens had told her he was depressed before and that contributed to this. Her lame showing at the press conference did nothing to convince me otherwise.
This story gets more bizarre by the minute. It's been a fascinating day with some excellent highlights.
#3) After about 25 questions on T.O.'s status, none of which Bill Parcells could answer, an unnamed reporter asking the coach how Terry Glenn's injury was. Parcells caught himself before giving his standard, "fellas, you know about this situation as much as I do," response and had to have the reporter repeat the query.
#2) Mark Schlereth defending his statement that this incident wouldn't affect the Cowboys because he "had gone through very similar situations" during his playing career. Yes, Mark. That time Terrell Davis took too many asprin for his migraine was exactly like this. We get it. You played football. Good for you. But you never dealt with anything like this in your playing career. Nobody has. And this is why it's such a big story.
#1) It's given Michael Irvin the chance to talk about how he "knows the Dallas Police Department well" and get asked if he took any "supplements" while playing.
One last thing: At the end of his press conference, Owens took time out to thank, among others, the Dallas Police Department. A P.R. move, definitely. But if the lied in their sworn statement as T.O.'s publicist claims, shouldn't Owens be readying a lawsuit instead of extending his gratitude?

The Chaz Rankings: Week 3 - 'Pac Style

This September marks the 10th anniversary of the "death" of 2pac. I put death in quotes because I still think 'Pac is chillin' in the Dominican, drinking Hennessey, smoking blunts and throwing boat parties that would make Fred Smoot blush. But that's neither here nor there.
Either way, it's been ten years since 2pac left us and to commerate, today's Chaz Rankings will pay tribute to the greatest rapper of all-time.
Each team is ranked alongside the 'Pac song that best represents them. And while I was a little upset 2pac never recorded a song entitled, "Crybaby, Overthrowing Daddy's Boy," I tried to make it work anyway.

1) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0, Last week: #4)
2 of Americaz Most Wanted
You’ll be surprised to know that picking a 2pac song to define the Bengals was about as difficult as picking a Judy Garland tune to characterize Derek Jeter.

2) Chicago Bears (3-0, #2)
The Super Bowl Shuffle
Little known fact: After producers determined Walter Payton’s rap wasn’t up to the level of Willie Gaults and William Perry’s, they dubbed in a new vocal performed by a 14-year old from Baltimore. His name? Tupac Shakur.

3) Indianapolis Colts (3-0, #5)
White Man’s World
At least until the playoffs… Right, Peyton?

4) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1, #1)
U Don’t Have 2 Worry
Playing on the road after a short week, the Jags handled the Colts for the first half and were done in by a plethora of mistakes in the second. They might not be the best team in the AFC, but there’s still time.

6) Baltimore Ravens (3-0, #3)
When We Ride On Our Enemies
The last thing Ravens fans want to hear are “ride”, “enemies” and “Ray Lewis” in the same sentence because the last time that happened…

7) San Diego Chargers (2-0, #7)
California Love
The Bolts are the only Cali team with a record over .500.

8) Denver Broncos (2-1, #21)
Y’all Don’t Know Us
Denver loses to St. Louis, struggles with a Damon Huard-led Chiefs team and then comes out and dismantles the defending AFC East champs. No, I don’t know them at all.

9) Philadelphia Eagles (2-1, #12)
Check Out Time
Usually the middle of the 4th quarter for the Eagles, maybe a little earlier if it’s the playoffs.

10) New England Patriots (2-1, #9)
Lie To Kick It
2pac said, “you ain’t gotta lie to kick it.” But maybe Stephen Gostkowski should try, ‘cause the truth sure ain’t helpin too much.

11) New Orleans Saints (2-1, #14)
Still I Rise
Wow; the Saints laid a beatdown on Atlanta last night. It just shows what the emotion of watching Billie Joe Armstrong perform can do.

12) Atlanta Falcons (3-0, #6)
Brenda’s Got A Baby
And there’s about a 75% chance its Michael Vick’s.
(About this ranking: I’ve never been a big fan of the Mora-led Falcons but, honestly, I don’t think the ’66 Packers would have won in the Superdome last night. Everybody who picked Atlanta totally underestimated how much the sense of occasion and rabid crowd would play into the Saints' hands. I’m still not sold on Atlanta, but they can’t be criticized too much for the loss. Except for Michael Vick. Because he looked f-in terrible.)

11) Minnesota Vikings (2-1, #11)
Starin’ Through My Rear View
Replace the word “through” with “at” and “my” with “the” and then add-on “of two strippers performing a full-contact lap dance” at the end, and you’ll sum up Fred Smoot’s Friday nights.

12) Seattle Seahawks (3-0, #13)
I’m Gettin Money
That’s what Shaun Alexander has been saying to himself when deciding whether to hit the snooze or go workout these past few weeks.

13) Dallas Cowboys (1-1, #16)
Picture Me Rollin’
Reports out of Dallas indicate Bill Parcells is contemplating retirement once again. Frankly, I don’t think I can bare another winter of “will they or won’t they” stories about Parcells, Roger Clemens and Brett Favre. One of them, I could withstand. All three? That might kill me. Maybe Parcells could eat the other two. Yeah, that could work.

14) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2, #8)
Blasphemy
Maybe it’s time to give Big Ben a breather. But only for a little, just to see how it feels.

15) St. Louis Rams (2-1, #20)
Keep Ya Head Up
Because you never quite know just when Kurt Warner will fumble and hand you a football game of a silver platter.

16) Carolina Panthers (1-2, #23)
Panther Power
It’s fitting that the one Carolina player who has most exemplified Pac’s “Panther Power” is kicker John Kasay.

17) Washington Redskins (1-2, #22)
Under Pressure
Mark Brunell throws for 22 straight completions. George Steinbrenner is said to be interested in signing the 36-year old signal caller to play third base in the playoffs.

18) New York Jets (2-1, #18)
Hail Mary
When Chad Pennington does his, he only gets to “full of grace” before his arm gives out.

19) New York Giants (1-2, #10)
Mama’s Just a Little Girl
And so is Eli Manning.

21) Buffalo Bills (1-2, #17)
Thug Passion
I’m not exactly sure how one defines “thug passion,” but I do know J.P. Losman exemplifies it. As do me and my buddy Falkow in this pic from sophomore year of college (right).

22) Arizona Cardinals (1-2, #15)
I Wonder If Heaven Got A Ghetto
Because Edgerrin James knows for damn sure there ain’t one in Phoenix.

23) San Francisco 49ers (1-2, #19)
Hold On, Be Strong
Frankly, 49ers coaches would just be happy if Frank Gore could take care of the former.

24) Miami Dolphins (1-2, #24)
Changed Man
Twenty-one months ago, Daunte Culpepper finished one of the greatest statistical seasons for a quarterback in football history. Today, he’s barely holding off Joey Harrington.

25) Green Bay Packers (1-2, #28)
Toss It Up
This will be the name of the Lifetime Original Movie about Brett Favre’s life, starring Haley Joel Osmont. Ed Hochuli’s forearms will appear as themself.

26) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2, #25)
When Thugz Cry
The Chiefs no longer have to worry about dealing with this, as Dick Vermeil retired after last season.

27) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3, #26)
Whatz Ya Phone #
Said Jon Gruden today to Jeff George, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf and, presumably, Y.A. Tittle.

28) Cleveland Browns (0-3, #27)
Strugglin’
Romeo Crennel should really think about signing Suge Knight (in red jacket).

29) Houston Texans (0-3, #30)
Young Black Male
Pick one and I guarantee he'll play better than Mario Williams.

30) Detroit Lions (0-3, #29)
Point the Finga
Most Lions fans have already done this towards Matt Millen. And a good majority of them have done so with the finger located in-between the index and the ring.

31) Tennessee Titans (0-3, #31)
Krazy
Apparently Pac got spelling tips from Vince Young.

32) Oakland Raiders (0-2, #32)
Pour Out A Little Liquor
Because Art Shell's coaching comeback has been slain. Puffy is claiming his innocence.

Monday Afternoon Cornerback

Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens,
Eli throws picks, while his pal, Plax, be sittin.
Skins win a game without Mr. Shawn Springs,
these are a few of my favorite things.

Brady gets down and his comeback proves futile,
when I woke up this morning I ate toaster streudle.
Southeast Jerome runs around like a king,
these are a few of my favorite things.

Big Ben is beat like in m'cycle crashes.
Matt Millen's squad is reduced to mere ashes.
The Eagles do win but they still have no rings,
these are a few of my favorite things.

When the D bites,
when C.P. stings,
when Joe's feeling sad,
I simply remember my favorite things
and then I don't feeeeeeeeel sooo bad.

Sunday Thoughts
* If you had told Bill Cowher before the game his defense would hold Chad Johnson to one catch and Rudi Johnson to 47 yards, while his own back, Willie Parker, would have 133 and 2 TD, he'd have probably bet his mustache trimmer the Steelers would beat the Bengals. But strange things happen when Ben Roethlisberger does his best Chris Simms impersonation and now the Steelers are in an early hole and we're actually forced to ponder the question: Should Cowher have stuck with Charlie Batch for a little while longer to give his Super Bowl-winning youngster some more recovery time?

* Maybe there is some truth to this Madden Curse. And, I had been waiting to do this, but... I told you so.

* It's probably a good idea to hold off on the Bears/Ravens Super Bowl talk. Baltimore looked absolutely atrocious against a terrible Browns team and the Bears (from what I hear), struggled mightily in their last-minute win against the Vikings. Although that could be more of a sign of the Vikings for-realness.

* The Seahawks destruction of New York is no more indicative of their talent than their 9-6 opening week win over Detroit was an indication of their mediocrity. Joe Buck had Seattle tabbed as the best team in the NFL after they whomped on the Giants for 30 minutes. But, let's think about this for a second... Who hasn't beat-up on New York this year?
Indy systematically picked them apart, the Eagles dominated for three quarters before Andy Reid went Nicholson-at-the-end-of-Cuckoo's-Nest and the only reason yesterday's score was respectable is because Elisha Manning was trying to avoid having to deal with Archie and his belt afterwards. (Is there a better garbage-time QB than Eli Manning? If he and A. Rod could extrapolate their stats from meaningless situations over a full season, they'd break every record in the book.)

* The Dolphins? Whoooooooo - they ain't too good.

Sunday Superlatives
Game of the Day: Carolina 26 - Tampa Bay 24
Come on... Deep down we all know Jon Gruden's a little happy that Chris Simms is likely done for the year. And what happened to the Panthers defense?

Upset of the Day: Denver 17 - New England 7
Tom Brady might have three Super Bowl rings, but he can't seem to beat Jake Plummer. Maybe he's jealous that Plummer played in a Rose Bowl while Brady once went to the Capital One Bowl.

Player of the Day: John Kasay
Ryan Leaf Player of the Day: Ben Roethlisberger
Faulk Fantasy Player of the Day: Clinton Portis (27 fantasy points)
Boldin Fantasy Player of the Day: Jon Kitna (26 fantasy points)
Barlow Fantasy Player of the Day: Chad Johnson (1 fantasy point)

Who I Like On Monday Night And I Certainly Don't Mean That Smug Fool Bono
It's wonderful that New Orleans has recovered enough to host a major sporting event and that said sporting event is sold out. Clearly, a lot of work has yet to be completed (or even started), but this is a step in the right direction for the city.
That being said, let me play the role of "parade rainer" for a minute: While the symbolism involved in the Saints return is a great story, let's not overemphasize the impact the actual team has on the community.
New Orleans' games were repeatedly blacked out on local television throughout this decade because the team didn't sell-out the Superdome. In the year before Katrina, the team sold only 86% of its seats and games were often played in front of a half-empty stadium. Owner Tom Benson has entertained the notion of moving the team for years. New Orleans might love the Saints now, but they didn't even support them before.
Their return is great for the city and it will be an emotional night within the most infamous hurricane shelter ever. But it's not the return of football that's important, it's the return of normalcy. For three hours people will forget that their homes were destroyed, that their friends and relatives died and that much of the city hasn't even been cleaned. They'll laugh at how the Texans passed up Reggie Bush and thank their lucky stars Aaron Brooks is playing on the west coast. For once, the hurricane won't be on everyone's mind, if only for a little. ESPN will try to make tonight about how the Saints are returning to the city that loves them. If that's the truth, New Orleans had a funny way of showing it.
On paper this game isn't close. New Orleans, while 2-0, has struggled against two terrible teams prior to their big Monday night home opener (Cleveland and Green Bay - thanks, NFL scheduling committee) and Atlanta has been impressive, racking up 302 yards in rushing last weekend. Along with a solid defense, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think Atlanta will win this game by at least two touchdowns.
But emotion does something to athletes, particularly football players. I'm reminded of the Giants playing their first game after the death of owner Wellington Mara and administering a 36-0 beatdown on a solid Redskins team. Much like the 'Skins that day, it might be tough for the Falcons to get as fired up as usual with all the pre-game festivities and tributes. It'd be almost inhuman to not feel some kind of emotion for the Katrina victims and it has to be difficult to play such a violent game while feeling a bit of compassion for the 65,000 people in the stands.
Tonight also marks the national TV debut of Reggie Bush. I can't help but think back to Bo Jackson's first appearance on the big stage, when he ran for 221 yards and famously bulldozed Brian Bosworth in just his fifth NFL game. I have a sneaking suspicion Reggie will do something just as memorable tonight.
New Orleans 27 - Atlanta 24

NFL Picks: Week 3

Washington at Houston
Speaking at the United Nations this week, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reaffirmed his stance that the holocaust never happened and refused to halt his nation's nuclear program. His most controversial statement came, however, when he declared taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush was the right choice.
Pick: Washington

Baltimore at Cleveland
Do Browns fans still spend all their time hating on the Ravens or are they too busy stealing people's wheelchairs to care?
Pick: Baltimore

New York Jets at Buffalo
A match-up between two of the original AFL teams from the '60s. Coincidentally, alsos a match-up of two quarterbacks who throw like they're in their 60's.
Pick: New York Jets

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Maybe it's because I'm a little hungover, but I'm having so much trouble coming up with a joke that involves Carson Palmer's knee, Chad Johnson's mohawk and Joey Porter's pitbull. Too many elements maybe? Nahh, I think I'm just slippin.
Pick: Cincinnati

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
If the Jaguars beat the Colts in Indy, ESPN football expert Mike Golic still says he won't consider them the favorites in the AFC. That's fine with me, because even if Mike Golic splits the atom, I still won't consider him an "expert" in anything.
Pick: Indianapolis

Tennessee at Miami
In last week's loss to San Diego, Kerry Collins had a QB rating of 1.3, or .3 higher than Vince Young's Wonderlic score.
Pick: Miami

Chicago at Minnesota
I was a little dismayed this week to hear Bears QB Rex Grossman is not Jewish. I figured on this, the weekend of the Jewish New Year, FOX could have invited Denis Leary to their booth to celebrate.
Pick: Chicago

Carolina at Tampa Bay
After this game, one of these teams will be 0-3. And by "one of these teams" I mean Tampa.
Pick: Carolina

Green Bay at Detroit
Last week, Vikings kicker Ryan Longwell became the first NFL player since George Blanda to throw for the tying touchdown and kick the game-winning field goal in the same game. This week Brett Favre hopes to become the first NFL player ever to mow the field before the game and then throw 12 interceptions on it during.
Pick: Green Bay

St. Louis at Arizona
Actor Lou Diamond Phillips was charged with two counts of battery today in connection with an alleged assault on his live-in girlfriend back in August. This has nothing to do with the game, I just really wanted a reason to mention Lou Diamond Phillips.
Pick: Arizona

Philadelphia at San Francisco
Andy Reid had a tough time getting his team to regroup this week after Sunday's disaster against the Giants. You see, usually, the Eagles only choke in the playoffs.
Pick: Philadelphia

New York Giants at Seattle
Shaun Alexander is questionable this week with a severe case of apathy.
Pick: New York Giants

Denver at New England
There's only one thing I miss more than Jake Plummer's beard and NFL Primetime be thy name.
Pick: New England

Last Week: 12-4
Season: 22-10

Thursday Thoughts

- I'd say I follow golf more than the average sports fan, which makes my ignorance of Ryder Cup team members J.J. Henry, Zach Johnson, Vaughn Taylor and Brett Wetterich quite strange. (I've at least heard of Henry and Johnson. But Vaughn Taylor and Brett Wetterich? The former sounds like a character from Major League and if I were asked yesterday who Brett Wetterich was I would have guessed he was one of those ex-Florida State kickers who missed wide right.)
Maybe these guys are decently well-known and I'm out of the loop, but if others are experiencing the same "wait... who?" feeling as me, this doesn't bode well for the future of the PGA. If it was just one random guy on the Ryder Cup team, that'd be one thing. But four? I mean, shoot, Chad Campbell was the 4th-highest qualifier! Golf fans know Chad Campbell, but casual fans probably don't.
Is the PGA refusing to market anybody besides Tiger and Phil? It sure seems that way. I know it's tough because Tiger is the main draw and wins almost half the events he enters, but the ATP has made a star of Rafael Nadal and he only beats Federer on clay. Let's say Tiger has to have back surgery at some point or takes a leave of absence to plan his wife's next topless photo shoot. The PGA is going to be screwed.

- Derek Jeter is the A.L. MVP. Let's move on, as my natural impulses are commanding me to repeatedly bash my head into a cement wall upon writing those words.

- Maybe I was expecting too much (or maybe the idiocy of Joe Thiesmann is bringing him down), but I'm disappointed with Tony Kornheiser's performance in the Monday Night Football booth. It's still early, so I'll reserve judgment, but with Thiesmann constantly engaged in a pissing contest and his humor ill-suited for one-liners, Kornheiser through the first two weeks reminds me of Donny from The Big Lebowski. He's always entering the conversation at the wrong time, makes comments that get (or need) no response and is getting picked on by the Vietnam vet asshole. (Just replace Vietnam vet with Notre Dame QB for this exercise.) There's still time, but I sort of wish Tony never took the job and had his radio show back on a local DC station.

- As I was staring out the window during my class last night, there was a high-school age kid kicking field goals on the soccer field of the small university at which I'm attending grad school.
There were no goalposts or yard-line markings, so it wasn't easy to tell just how accurate his kicks were, but this dude was simply drilling the ball for a good 45 minutes. Now, the ball was most definitely smaller and said ball wasn't getting snapped and there weren't 11 guys trying to get their meaty balls on that ball, but if some random kid kicking on a soccer field with his dad holding can drill what appeared to be 40 yarders with ease, how in Groza's name did the Atlanta Falcons employ a guy that went 0-4 in a single game?
I'm not suggesting kicking is easy, but I find it very hard to believe that kicking an oblong ball through uprights from various distances is a skill-set confined to 31 of our 300,000,000 citizens. It can't be that hard. Are you telling me Morten Anderson, at 46, is better than a slew of ex-college kickers that are unemployed?
NFL GMs seem to treat kickers like TV execs treat new shows: Neither are given the chance to develop. Teams would rather feel comfortable watching a once-proven kicker miss field goals than give a new guy a shot. A crappy old kicker will take the fall if he sucks, but the GM will take it if the new guy is terrible.

- About two months ago I heaped priased upon an subtlely hilarious lede paragrph from a Mike Silver article and proceeded to discuss my ever-changing opinion of the Sports Illustrated writer:

Sports Illustrated's Michael Silver often comes across as a smug, "too cool for the room" type of guy in his writing. That his SI.com picture (right, complete with hipster glasses, unkempt hair and stubble) makes him come across as a smug, "too cool for the room" type of guy clearly doesn't help matters.
Still, Silver is a very good writer and despite my repeated intentions to dismiss his work, his player profiles are the best around. Sometimes his stuff is a little too cutesy (like that time he deemed the NFL "insufferable"), yet other times I want to stand and applaud a column (yes, Dan Snyder is one of the best owners in the NFL). To say that I'm on the fence about Michael Silver is about right.

Well, the aforementioned Mr. Silver happened to stumble upon that post two weeks ago and responded with both some kind words about my site and some good-natured ribbing about that "too cool for the room" designation. I wrote him back and he responded again and, since then, our correspondence has faded, but needless to say, I'm no longer on the fence about Mike Silver. Now I just hope I don't run into Skip Bayless working in a soup kitchen or else my whole worldview will be thrown into chaos.

The Chaz Rankings: Week 2

1) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)
As one of the few knowledgeable NFL fans left, I took great pleasure in watching the Jags/Steelers game last night. While the unenlightened masses prefer 49-48 shootouts, a more informed viewer, like myself, delights in games of defensive nuance. The subtle, yet pivotal, play of the defensive line, linebackers attacking on blitzes and safeties perfectly executing a cover-2; I appreciate football like nobody else. Take your flea flickers and reverses, you bourgeois fools! You know nothing of the game that only Bill Simmons and I know!

2) Chicago Bears (2-0)
Anybody wanna take the bet that Simmons will make some sort of comment like that in his next handicapping column?
Seriously though, I did enjoy watching last night's defensive battle. I didn't have the displeasure of sitting through KC and Denver's 9-6 struggle, but I imagine that game was terrible because the low score was more a result of inept offenses rather than stifling defenses. But the Jags and Steelers defenses were brilliant and, every now and then, that's fun to watch. Don't get me wrong, I'm not hoping there's a 9-0 game every weekend but, from time to time, it's fun to watch two great defenses slugging it out.
And what are the chances that tomorrow morning in New York, CBS executives will be frantically making contingency plans should Super Bowl XLI involve two defensive teams like the Jags and Bears? Somewhere, Les Moonves is placing a cyanide tablet under his tongue, just in case.

3) Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
Sense the theme. It's been a while since there have been so many dominant defenses in the league but, through week 2 anyway, the Jags, Bears and Ravens all appear to have the sorts of units that win championships.
Let's clarify one thing about Baltimore though. I've heard it many places in the past few days that the addition of Steve McNair has given the Ravens their first consistent offense since their Super Bowl of 2000. Michael Wilbon wrote exactly that in a column last week. Yet, drowned in the memory of that Super Bowl win is the fact that those Ravens went five straight games without a touchdown (weeks five to nine). They turned things on a little later in the season, but weren't exactly a juggernaut. (If the Ravens hadn't scored 34 in their rout over the Giants in the Super Bowl, I think this would be better remembered. But after that scoring orgy, it became easy to assume the Ravens were great on both sides of the ball.
Also, going back to look at that season, I saw this awesome statistic (not awesome as in Point Break-awesome but something that fills me with awe): In their four playoff games, the Ravens gave up 3, 10, 3 and 7 points. That's just disgusting. And with a rejuvenated Ray Lewis leading the charge, there's no reason to think they can't do it again.)

4) Cincinnati Bengals (2-0)
In yesterday's comments section I had a good-natured debate with my college buddy, and Eagles fan, Obaza about Donovan McNabb. My contention has always been that for all of Donners talent, I don't feel he's a good leader of men. I then proceeded to list current NFL QBs whom I define as good leaders. (Don't ask me to define a good leader, because I can't. It's based more on feel than anything.) My list was short: Tom Brady, Steve McNair, Brad Johnson and Brett Favre. But I added that Carson Palmer wasn't far off.
I based that on his post-game press conferences after both games this season. Cincinnati couldn't have asked for a better opening schedule, considering Palmer was coming back from his knee injury. As expected, the Bengals cruised to two easy victories and the team, from a distance at least, looked to be right back where they were before their QB was injured early in the Wild Card game. But after the game, if you watched Palmer's press conference and didn't know the game's result, you'd have assumed his team lost. He didn't smile, didn't boast and didn't talk about what went right. He instead discussed what went wrong. And when a guy can start the season 2-0 and harp on what went wrong - that's a leader. If their QB is saying things can get better, the Bengals team will believe it too.
Look at it this way; what would Donovan McNabb's press conference had been like if the Eagles hadn't choked away the game on Sunday?

5) Indianapolis Colts (2-0)
To me, week 2 is the most telling week of the season. The preseason is like an unplugged TV. It's black; impossible to make out anything. Week 1 is like when you first turn the TV on and the picture slowly comes on the screen. And week 2 is when that picture starts to get crisp and you realize the last station you were watching was the Lifetime Movie Channel so you quickly fumble with the remote so your friends don't laugh at you.
It's like that because in week 1 there's no frame of reference for a team's great performance or their lousy one. After week 2, you can compare a team's showing to their first week and get a better idea as to the level of the competition they were playing. The Steelers win against Miami, for example, becomes a lot less impressive after the way the Dolphins stunk up the joint versus the Bills. And on one level, the Colts would appear to be quite solid because of how the team they beat (New York) fared against another solid team (Philadelphia). But I'm looking at it a different way.
Indy was lucky to beat the Giants (much like Philly in week 2, the Giants of week 1 should have put the game away early, but missed myriad opportunities to do so) and beat up on a terrible Texans team in week 2. Their offense is still the best in the league, but one stat should worry Tony Dungy: Against Indy, Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs ran 26 times for 164 yards. Against Philly, Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs ran 26 times for 84 yards. The Colts run defense is bad. And in a year with so many great defenses, that's not a good thing. I'll go out on a limb now: Jacksonville will win the AFC South.

6) Atlanta Falcons (2-0)
What a surprise! Michael Vick is released from the shackles of the west coast offense and, lo and behold, the Falcons are winning games! And it only took Jim Mora Jr. a full year to discover that making Vick a pocket passer was the best football idea since the XFL. Just one wasted year! What a moron.
I'm still reserving final judgment on the Falcons for two reasons: First, the probability of Vick sustaining an injury is always high. Second, beating the Panthers and Bucs doesn't appear to be the impressive feat it would have seemed to be nine days ago. The Bucs are simply dreadful and Carolina has sputtered out of the gate. (Frankly, I don't know what's more amazing: That Atlanta rushed for 302 yards against the Bucs or that they only scored 14 points as a result.) With a trip to New Orleans and a home game against the Cards leading up to a week 5 bye, we might not get a good read on the Falcons until the Giants head south on October 15.

7) San Diego Chargers (2-0)
If the Falcons are hard to get a read on, the Chargers are impossible. Somebody on NBC Sunday night said they were the best team in the NFL. I'm not saying they aren't (although I suppose by ranking them 7th that is, indeed, what I'm saying), but wins over perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL (Oakland and Tennessee) wouldn't hold up in court. Unless the O.J. jury were somehow involved.

8) Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
As stated above, Pittsburgh's win over Miami seems a whole lot less impressive now than it did Sunday morning. Considering how Miami shot themselves in the foot that game and it's even less so. Less so or more so? Eh, it's late so I'll move on. (I think that's the first time the word "eh" has ever appeared on this site. I really despise the "eh" because of its use as the written equivalent of the Canadian sentence-ender, as in, "hockey season's getting close, eh?" It just doens't seem right to me. How does the sound "aay" turn into "eh"? "Eh" reads like the first sound made when saying the name "Edgerrin," not the letter "A". Who decided on the spelling "eh" anyway? Is it too late to get this changed? It's like the spelling of "pneumonia," "gnat," and "chaos." Just because some fool decided to spell these words in ridiculous fashion doesn't mean we need to keep doing so. Shit, I'm gonna run for president.)

9) New England Patriots (2-0)
Unimpressive wins count the same as impressive wins, but I'm not sold on New England this year. Not that I'm ever sold on New England, mind you, but this year I'm even less so.

10) New York Giants (1-1)
The Giants are the top-ranked NFC East team in the Chaz Rankings yet, ironically, I think they're the worst team in the division. Despite all the accolades tossed Elisha Manning's way after their come-from-behind victory (he's very proficient in coming-from-behind), the goofy, trade-forcing quarterback was jumpy and erratic at points. His completion percentage is an eye-rubbing 66% and - I'm seriously shocked by that. You might not believe it, but I was ready to change my Eli criticism from football to purely personal this season because I thought he'd make great strides and become a better-than-average NFL QB. But, despite the percentage, he's still missing wide open targets on seemingly every possession and appears to be sleepwalking at points. Sure, the TD pass to Plax was great, but if Sheldon Brown was merely mediocre he would have knocked it away. If he was average it would have been picked. Plaxico has done more bailing out this season than Virginia Tech football coaches. He had at least four catches in the Indy game to save Eli and two against Philly.

11) Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
In week 2 of 2005, in a key early-season divisional match-up, the Cowboys had their game against the Redskins won. Up 13-0 with 3:32 left and Washington facing 4th and 10, the game was over. It was done. Sixty-one furious seconds later, the Redskins had the lead. They held on to win and the Cowboys had victory snatched from their grasp. Four months later, Dallas missed the playoffs by one game. Bears repeating.

12) Minnesota Vikings (2-0)
Expect the Vikings-hype to reach epic proportions this week just in time for them to get steamrolled by the Bears. Oh, I think Minnesota is a fine team and could contend for a Wild Card spot, but the Bears defense will shut down Chester Taylor and be all over Brad Johnson.
Before the media attempts to get your panties in a bunch about how great Brad Childress and his team are, remember these two things: They beat both a struggling Redskins team that failed to get into the endzone despite three trips inside the 12-yard line and a struggling Panthers team that is missing their best player. Oh, and the Panthers sent an engraved invitation to Minnesota to get back in the game with that unbelievable throwback on a punt return. But more about that later. Translation: Let's not start printing playoff tickets quite yet.

13) Seattle Seahawks (2-0)
Steve Hutchinson left and now his replacement (Pork Chop Womack) is out for a few weeks. This comes after two games in which Shaun Alexander has averaged 3.1 yards per carry. But hey, at least they're getting future Hall of Famer Deion Branch on the field next week.

14) New Orleans Saints (2-0)
It sure was awfully nice for New Orleans to have their two easiest road games prior to their first game back at the Superdome that, gasp, happens to be the Monday Night Football match-up. I mean, that couldn't have been planned by the NFL, could it? Surely it was just luck that sent New Orleans to Cleveland and Green Bay before the pre-planned week 3 home opener. Those other road games against Carolina, Tampa, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Dallas and the Giants; just a stroke of good fortune that they all occur after the Saints only national TV appearance. No, nothing suspicious there.

15) Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
I don't remember exactly when it happened, but network's replacing the player headshot that accompanies stats or info graphics with a video of that player's face was a dark day in sports broadcasting. The only real difference is that the video shows players blinking and creeps me out. Sometimes, though, the video's can be great. Case in point, Mike Vanderjagt. In his NBC shot, Vanderjagt looks quite uncomfortable. Horo suggested Vanderjagt looked that way because, at the time, he knew that NBC would show the video only when discussing how big a choker he is.

16) Arizona Cardinals (1-1)
Edgerrin James stats through two games: 44 caries, 137 yards, 3.1 yards per carry. I'm sensing that popular sentiment is going towards the "Edgerrin is on the downside of his career" theory, but that's a bunch of crap. Edgerrin's struggles merely confirms that greatness in football is almost always dictated by one's surroundings.

17) Buffalo Bills (1-1)
Another team whose future became clearer after week 2. Following their narrow-loss to the Pats in the opener, it was assumed the closeness of the game was due to poor play by New England. But after beating Miami, maybe the Bills aren't too bad themselves. Or maybe Miami is just that terrible.

18) New York Jets (1-1)
Chad Pennington looks great and is proving arm-strength isn't everything. But at the end of the Pats game, when the Jets attempted a hail mary to get the tying touchdown, Pennington was able to throw the ball only about 40 yards. Why Eric Mangini didn't put the strong-armed Patrick Ramsey in for the last throw is beyond me. I rip Bill Simmons often, but he does make good points every now and again and his tongue-in-cheek suggestion that team's should have a sort of "common sense coordinator" is one of them.

19) San Francisco 49ers (1-1)
Frank Gore appears to be the real deal. But, then again, so did Cadillac Williams through two weeks last year.

20) St. Louis Rams (1-1)
I just saw the controversial play from the Oregon-Oklahoma game last night and, even after hearing about how bad a call the officials made, I was shocked at just how egregious their error was. I mention this because clearly both the NCAA and NFL's replay reviews leave a lot to be desired. It was ridiculous that Nick Saban wasn't able to challenge Heath Miller's "touchdown" catch in the season opener. Even more ridiculous was Bill Cowher throwing a challenge flag last night, which caused the referees to stop the game. Then, after conferring with them on the sidelines and listening to his headset, Cowher decided not to challenge the play. And apparently this is totally legal. Can you imagine this happening late in the game? How is this a rule?

21) Denver Broncos (1-1)
Scoring nine points against the Chiefs defense is sort of like hooking up with Tara Reid and only getting to first base.

22) Washington Redskins (0-2)
It's never a good sign when the play of Danny Smith's special teams is the high-point for the Redskins in a specific game.

23) Carolina Panthers (0-2)
Not since Marty Mornhinweg elected to kick-off in overtime and take the wind has an idiotic coaching decision proved so costly as John Fox's "what the f--- was he thinking" return-lateral in Sunday's Vikings game.

24) Miami Dolphins (0-2)
Since Daunte Culpepper was injured last season, the Minnesota Vikings are 9-2 in his stead. Since Daunte Culpepper joined the Dolphins, they are 0-2.

25) Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
Dick Vermeil got out just in time.

26) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2)
How bad is Chris Simms? He'd still find a way to lose to Oklahoma even if those Pac-10 refs were officiating the game.

27) Cleveland Browns (0-2)
Frankly, I'm shocked that team featuring Charlie Frye, Reuben Droughns and Dennis Northcutt is struggling.

28) Green Bay Packers (0-2)
They still stink, but unlike the four teams below, at least they showed some heart.

29) Detroit Lions (0-2)
Charles Rogers was cut, Mike Williams doesn't play and Roy Williams is boasting about how his team could be putting up 40 despite only putting up 13 in two contests. Kudos, Matt Millen. Kudos.

30) Houston Texans (0-2)
I still have Wali Lundy on my fantasy roster.

31) Tennessee Titans (0-2)
And picked Chris Brown over Frank Gore.

32) Oakland Raiders (0-2)
But at least I didn't take Aaron Brooks.

Monday Afternoon Cornerback

There are a bunch of diasppointed football fans today in various areas of the country. But which fan-base, pre-tell, has the most right to be devastated on this, the second Monday of the NFL season? Ladies and gentlemen, I believe a list is in order. (In ascending order of sadness.)
(Not included: Oakland, Green Bay, Houston - Because if any fans of these teams were dumb enough to think their squad had a shot, then they're probably too stupid to be devastated.)
11) Cleveland - Come on, you didn't really believe Charlie Frye was going to be the answer, did you?
10) St. Louis - After yesterday's loss to San Fran, I'm wondering if there's still room on the Rams bandwagon that Bill Simmons is driving? Putz.
9) Kansas City - Either that was a gutsy performance yesterday by Kansas City or Denver is worse than I imagined.
8) Carolina - Being 0-2 is nothing to celebrate, but at least the Panthers have an excuse. Once Steve Smith returns, they'll right the ship.
7) Washington - Before ripping the Redskins, it's important to one remember one key fact. (Not that I remembered said one key fact last night when I was ripping the Redskins, but Monday brought an unusual sense of calm on me considering my team is 0-2 and has, somehow, managed to look worse than that.) That fact is this: Washington's most important offensive player, by far, didn't play yesterday and barely played last week. And their most important defensive player, arguably, hasn't stepped foot on the field at all this year. (That's Shawn Springs, and I say arguably because if somebody wanted to claim the Redskins defensive MVP is Cornelius Griffin or Marcus Washington, I'd listen.)
Not that the absense of Clinton and Shawn excuses Mark Brunell's poor, jumpy play, the inability of any receiver other than Santana Moss to get open, the defensive line getting absolutely no push on any running play, Gregg Williams' reluctance to put pressure on the quarterback, Gregg Williams' schemes that had a linebacker covering the Cowboys #2 receiver in a two-receiver set, the defensive line not getting any pressure on the QB even when Williams did bring six, Sean Taylor contributing three big plays per game to go along with the five he blows and a secondary that is so bad it defies description.
And don't get me started on the free agent acquisitions Vinny Cerrato and crew brought in. Andre Carter, as my old pal Jaffe put it in a text, "is traSh" (I didn't know whether or not the capital S was intentional, so I spent about five minutes trying to figure out what the hell he meant, eventually determining that it was unintentional. But even then, how does one make a capital S and then have a lowercase h to follow? Jaf?), Adam Archuleta can't tackle a water cooler, Brandon Lloyd appears not to exist and Antwaan Randle El makes you think he's doing good by running 45 yards on each punt return, but then you look at the stats and realize he ran all that way just to gain 2 1/2 yards. T.J. Duckett barely gets on the field and, it would seem to reason, that once C.P. returns, he won't get any playing time which means the team sort of threw away the third-round choice they traded for him.
Mark Brunell looks uncomfortable in the pocket, almost like he did back in 2004. Maybe it's because he knows the opposing defense isn't respecting the run. Maybe it's because he doesn't have a good blocking back like he does when Portis is in there. Or maybe age is catching up to him. Whichever it is, I'm still in Brunell's camp and will likely stay there unless it gets really bad (but only because there is no real viable alternative. Peter King thinks the season is wasted if Gibbs doesn't go to Jason Campbell but, clearly, King has never seen Campbell play.)
I'm also willing to give Al Saunders the benefit of the doubt. It's always been said that it takes time for his system to work in a given place. But my main question has been, why'd they try to fix an offense that wasn't broken? In the last three regular season games of 2005, the Redskins scored 35, 35 and 31 points, respectively. (Granted, their offense was brutal in the playoffs, but they were also so banged up at that point it's amazing they were able to win a game.) Nothing against Al Saunders, but is he in the Hall of Fame? I'm not jumping ship, it's just worth noting.
Last thing about the Redskins; if not for their miraculous comeback in Dallas in last year's week two, the 'Skins offense was about in the same spot as they were this year. The difference was, that team started 2-0 after winning a defensive struggle against Chicago in week one. 0-2 isn't the end of the world, particularly when one of those losses comes on the road to a division opponent. But the Redskins need to get things clicking quickly, as in this week.
It's far too early to write off this team, particularly with Joe Gibbs at the helm. For now, I'm chalking up the bad start to injuries and execution. For now...
6) Houston - Reggie Bush's team is 2-0. And the Texans got leveled by Peyton Manning once again.
5) Tennessee - How bad must Billy Volek be if he can't get any PT opposite Kerry Collins?
4) Philadelphia - Donovan and the Eagles quit on this game once they got their 17-point lead. They played cocky, loose and stupid and deserved the loss they got. My mom made a good point via text message during the Pats/Jets game, when New England was in danger of pulling a Philly: "The difrence between theM and PHill y is Brady making plays and mc Nabb didnt." (She just learned to text, which has been a joy for both me and my sister. Now, instead of getting phone calls before each Redskins game where she says, "I can't get the TV to work," I'm getting a text that says, "t. V % on work." And it's also worth noting that my mom has despised McNabb ever since he mocked the West Point corps of cadets during a pivotal Army-Syracuse game back in '96.)
3) Detroit - On a scale of one to Maurice Clarret, just how dumb is Roy Williams? It's getting to the point where the other Roy Williams is going to have to start using his middle name so nobody associates him with the chucklehead in Detroit.
2) Miami - I think it's time we stopped referring to Daunte Culpepper as All-Pro Daunte Culpepper and go the old Prince route and rename him "the quarterback formerly known as Daunte Culpepper."
1) Tampa Bay - As my football-watching life-partner Ben said in week one, "I think we're watching the Chris Simms coming-out party." Yet lost in the hullaballo over just how terrible Chris Simms is, is the fact the the Bucs vaunted defense allowed 302 rushing yards to the Falcons. 302. That's not a rushing total, it's an area code (much love Talleyville, Delaware.) The Bucs aren't in trouble. Trouble indicates there's hope. The Bucs seem to have none. They're a bad team. Maybe Jon Gruden should be putting more hours in.

Sunday Superlatives
Game of the Day: Philly over New York
Upset of the Day: San Fran over St. Louis
Player of the Day: Rex Grossman - Don't even get me started on NBC giving their Player of the Day award to Eli Manning. He looked absolutely terrible for the first three quarters of that game. Just because Donovan McNabb pulled his patented choke-job and the Eagles secondary decided to stop covering Plaxico Burress (and, as a result, hand me my first fantasy loss of the season), doesn't mean Eli had a special day.
Leaf Player of the Day: Chris Simms
Faulk Fantasy Player of the Day: Rudi Johnson
Boldin Fantasy Player of the Day: Rex Grossman
Barlow Fantasy Player of the Day: LaMont Jordan

Fantasy Rant
I went to check on the score of my "respect league" game, expecting to see that I was still down around 12 points with Matt Jones left to go tonight. (That Burress catch really killed me.) But when I opened the page, I discovered that I'm actually down 19 points. My confusion turned to rage when I realized why: Fanball credited the Giants defense with a fumble recovery and touchdown for Tim Carter's recovery of Plaxico Burress' fumble into the endzone. Now, I could be wrong (and so could the two people I've already called to complain to), but shouldn't that touchdown go to Carter and not the Giants defense since Carter is: a) an offensive player and b) was playing offense at the time of the recovery? The fantasy player "New York Giants defense" doesn't get points when Eli Manning recovers his own fumble or even if Tiki Barber were to recover it. So why would they get points and a touchdown for this? Shoot, if Ryan Longwell got credit for his TD pass (as well he should), then Tim Carter should get credit for a touchdown he scored while lined up as a receiver. Please leave me your opinion in the comments section. It's likely a moot point because I'm not expecting 12 points from Jones, but if he does get a touchdown catch and I lose because of this, I'm gonna be pissed.
(Update: Fanball returned my e-mail was surprising promptness - as in three minutes - and said they are aware of the problem with the Giants D. In retrospect, maybe I was too harsh in my e-mail (my closing line was "Please either correct this error or let me know why you've decided to make the wrong decision," but I'll hold off on being sorry until they do, in fact, make the correction.)

Predictions
I almost don't want to credit myself for the win I got picking against the Redskins. With that soul-to-devil selection, I finished 11-4 on the most disappointing Sunday I've had this year. Well, other than the time I spilled a latte on my crotch while reading the paper. Although that was probably more scaldingly painful than disappointing.

Who I Like On Monday Night And I Don't Mean Suzy Kolber's Voice
Pittsburgh's hardfought victory over Miami looks a lot less impressive after the way Buffalo held Nick Saban's team in check. (Anybody else really starting to dislike Saban? His holier-than-thou rant about why you shouldn't boo players reeked of arrogance and entitlement and of a guy who doesn't realize that the reason his team is getting booed is because he's not doing a very good job of coaching.) Even with Roethlisberger back, I'm once again picking against the Steelers. (Which will probably mean I'll, once again, lose.)
Jacksonville 23 - Pittsburgh 20

NFL Picks: Week 2
(Chaz Rankings in Parenthesis)

#22 New Orleans at #31 Green Bay
Yahoo! Sports is reporting Saints rookie Reggie Bush received $100,000 in improper benefits while playing for USC. Meanwhile, AltaVista Sports reports Texans rookie Mario Williams once violated NCAA rules when he accepted an extra biscuit at a Raleigh-area Bojangles. Williams was eventually cleared when it was discovered that the Bojangles cashier only gave him the improper biscuit because she thought he was Cedric Simmons.
Pick: New Orleans

#23 Detroit at #3 Chicago
Ford announced today they plan to cut 10,000 jobs after their rebound to profitability stalled. Charles Rogers was said to be devastated, as he was very interested in the night janitor position at the Maumee, OH plant.
Pick: Chicago

#27 Cleveland at #6 Cincinnati
Other than Virginia, Ohio is the state that has produced the most U.S. presidents. So who would our former leaders root for in the battle between their state's two football teams?
James Garfield - Doesn't care, as long as the Packers continue to stink.
Ulysses S. Grant -With a name like Ulysses, I'm guessing he'd care more about who got voted off on Dancing With the Stars.
Warren Harding - Many consider Harding the worst president in U.S. history. So he'd definitely be pulling for Romeo Crennel.
Benjamin Harrison - That was perhaps a little too harsh, but my first wording of the joke worked even less.
Rutherford B. Hayes - Sounds like he should have played in the ABA.
William McKinley - If we were still mired in the absurd policies of McKinleynomics, the NFL of today would be but a figment of Roger Goodell's boring imagination.
William Howard Taft - Even though he's been dead for 76 years, Texans coach Gark Kubiak is said to be interested in bringing in our most-rotund president for a tryout at left tackle.
Pick: Cincinnati

#21 Buffalo at #15 Miami
Yeah, I realize that president thing had nothing to do with the game, but originally I had figured Grover Cleveland was from Ohio (for obvious reasons) and planned on making a fairly obvious joke about non-consecutive something-or-others. When I discovered Cleveland was actually from the New Jeruz, I went another way with it. And I'll give a prize to the first person who makes the Garfield-Packers connection. (Note: It's a very, very long way from point A to point B, mainly because I once again confused my presidential trivia.)
Pick: Miami

#24 Tampa Bay at #7 Atlanta
Douglas Scott S. over at the ridiculously-named, but well-intentioned, blog "Vick for MVP" doesn't like it when I make fun of the fact that his favorite quarterback has herpes. In the comments to last week's post he wrote, "Just understand that half the NFL and NBA probably have herpes if not more."
Douglas, I fully agree. But few, if any, NFL or NBA players use the alias Ron Mexico on their STD test and, subsequently, sees that information obtained by a Web site. You see, Douglas, that's what I like to call FREAKIN' HILARIOUS. Sure, the story is old now, but so is I Love Lucy and it'll be a cold day in hell when I don't bust a gut watching Lucy and Ethel try to sneak their way into Ricky's show.
Pick: Atlanta

#30 Houston at #5 Indianapolis
It seems ridiculous now, but after the 1997 draft some people thought the Colts should have taken Ryan Leaf over Peyton Manning. Hell, the Texans' front office still thinks it was a bad move.
Pick: Indianapolis

#16 Carolina at #15 Minnesota
Last season, two Panthers cheerleaders were arrested after an amorous tryst in a public bathroom. After hearing that, Fred Smoot fired his agent for not suggesting he sign with Carolina.
Pick: Carolina

#11 New York Giants at #13 Philadelphia
Combined, these two teams have one less Super Bowl win than Joe Gibbs. Just wanted to remind everybody. And by everybody I mean Falkow, Obaza and J-Rod.
Pick: New York

#32 Oakland at #4 Baltimore
While in Charm City, Randy Moss hopes to take Aaron Brooks to the set of The Wire to see if they need any extras to volunteer as the victim of a drive-by.
Pick: Baltimore

#10 St. Louis at #28 San Francisco
Some look at the 49ers loss to the Cardinals and see a glass half-full. I, on the other hand, look at the 49ers loss to the Cardinals and figure, hey, even a broken clock is right two times a day.
Pick: St. Louis

#20 Arizona at #9 Seattle
I'd pick against Seattle, but they acquired Deion Branch this week so, instead, I'm picking the Seahawks to go 16-0. Because he's Deion Branch. And the media says he's so great, so he must be. Forget that if you were to ask 100 people to list the 10 most important people in the Pats organization since 2001, Branch would appear on exactly zero of the lists. And also forget that it was always said the Patriots offense was one of interchangable parts (other than Tom Brady). Instead, remember that Branch won a Super Bowl MVP award! Just like Dexter Jackson! He must be great! Give him a multi-year deal worth millions, stat! Idiots.
Pick: Arizona

#26 Kansas City at #17 Denver
The Huard brothers (Brock and Damon - and what the hell kind of name is Brock, anyway) have thrown one less TD pass in 42 career games than Peyton Manning had in a three-game stretch back in 2004.
Pick: Denver

#12 New England at #25 New York Jets
Who would have thought the most important Boston/New York match-up of the weekend would be between the Pats and the Jets? Besides Marlins GM Larry Beinfest, because he could have pretty much figured that out when he unloaded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Sox and received rookie sensations Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez in return. Way to go, Theo. Just think, if the players union had let that A. Rod deal go through, you'd be more hated in Boston than Dan Duquette.
Pick: New England

#29 Tennessee at #8 San Diego
After cruising against a pathetic Raiders team, Philip Rivers will get a wake-up call this week against the Titans. Wait. No he won't. Next week then, when the Chargers face... Oh. They have a bye. Jeez, who made their schedule, Frank Beamer?
Pick: San Diego

#19 Washington at #18 Dallas
With the possibility of a Mike Rumph/T.O. match-up, Redskins coach Joe Gibbs recommended that his beleaguered cornerback stay at a Holiday Inn Express on Saturday night.
Pick: Dallas

Last week: 10-6

Tuesday Blues

The Redskins lost, my computer is broken and I destroyed my back playing 18 holes this morning. And I haven't even gotten to the whole "Tom Cruise sitting with Dan Snyder" thing. Needless to say, I'm not in the best of moods right now. (Killing my back would have been worth it had I actually played well on the course earlier. But since my game this morning resembled the Redskins' last night, my current pain appears to have come in vain. Although I still maintain I would have shot 8-10 strokes better had the 'Skins ultimately prevailed. And, yes, I'm aware of all the rhyming that occured in the previous sentences.
Quick Cruise thought: The worst part about his sitting in the Redskins' owners box? It forced me to ponder whether that crazy, wild-eyed Scientology-loving wack-job could kick better than John Hall. That I'm still thinking about it is merely a testament to the eternal crappiness of the Redskins' kicker.)
I'm going to try to get the week one Chaz Rankings up tomorrow, but at some point I'm going to need to do some work for the classes I'm currently taking, so the rankings may be delayed for a bit. But just for a second, just to see how it feels.

Giving New Meaning To The Term "Special" Teams

In the offseason, the Washington Redskins spent $32 million on Andre Carter, $30 million on Antwaan Randle El, $30 million on Adam Archuleta and $25 million on Brandon Lloyd. All told, Daniel Snyder "spent" $117 million on new additions to bolster the 'Skins roster in hopes of making a deep run into the playoffs. Yet, not a dime was spent on the Redskins' special teams.
Kicker John Hall, he of the bad hamstrings and weak leg, was retained, as was punter Derrick Frost, who ranked 28th in the NFL in punting average in '05. That these two players were clearly detrimental to any progress the Redskins would this season was ignored. Vinny Cerrato and his personnel goons only gave a perfunctory look at other kickers during training camp.
When it became clear the team had no intention of improving one of their most important areas (five games last year were decided by three or less points), I predicted Hall and Forst would cost the Redskins at least two games in 2006. After week one, we're halfway there.
Hall shanked a potentially game-tying 47-yard field goal as time expired tonight and Frost consistently allowed the Vikings to win the battle of field position with his 34-yard punts. In all, the special teams played just like they did last year; which is to say, terrible.
In yesterday's Seahawks game, rookie punter Ryan Plackemeier boomed five punts for a 52.6 yard average, including a 63-yarder that was the longest of the day in the NFL. Seattle took the Ray Guy Award winner out of Wake Forest with the 239th pick in this year's draft, after the Redskins passed on him four times during the second day. In my State of the Redskins address back in January I wrote:

Cut punter Derrick Frost. It should have been done yesterday. Actually, it should have been done back in September, but that’s neither here not there. Frost made Kelly Goodburn look like Ray Guy. How many 17-yard punts can a team survive, particularly one with a streaky offense? The team claimed Frost was necessary because of his ability to hold for their kicker, but how hard can it be to catch a ball and put the laces out? Couldn’t a trained seal do that? Get rid of that shank-punting putz, draft All-American Ryan Plackemeier from Wake Forest or sign that guy from the CFL everybody’s been talking about.
John Hall also has to go. Anybody who gets paid $1.4 million shouldn’t be missing critical 36-yard field goals in playoff games, nor should they have lingering hamstring issues that causes them to miss five games during the season. Either find a kicker in free agency (Vanderjagt, perhaps) or bring back Nick Novak. And I wouldn’t mind firing special teams coach Danny Smith either, but since I've been preaching the whole “stability” thing, that would kind of be hypocritical. Just get rid of Frost and Hall and we’ll be cool, Danny.

Clearly I was wrong about not firing Smith.
Tonight's loss isn't all on his unit though. Gregg Williams' defense was putrid. Carlos Rogers missed tackles and assignments all night, Adam Archuleta played like the overrated, overpaid safety he is, Mike Rumph was Mike Rumph and Sean Taylor amassed not one, but two costly 15-yard penalties. (Granted, the first was a joke; especially in light of the late-hit no-call on Antoine Winfield on the Redskins final drive, but, as Tony Kornheiser correctly said, SeanTay's reputation precedes him. Mike Tirico did a nice job of pointing out that Mike Carey's crew also worked the Washington/Tampa playoff game in which SeanTay was ejected for spitting. I'm not saying that crew was out to get SeanTay, except that I totally am.) The absence of Shawn Springs definitely hurt, mainly because Gregg Williams seemingly refuses to blitz without his #1 corner.
The problem is, a quarterback like Brad Johnson is only deadly when given time to throw the ball. Guys like him can put the ball wherever they want it, provided they're given time. The only way they make mistakes is when they're pressured. So, of course, Williams blitzed maybe four times the entire night. (If they pull the same shit with Drew Bledsoe next Sunday night, 0-2 is a certainty.)
Washington's offense looked very similar to last year's version; making the whole Al Saunders thing much ado about nothing - at least until this point. Not that that's a bad thing, it's just... interesting. Pre-snap movement, wide receiver screens, stretch blocking - where's the revolution I was promised? Is it not going to be televised?
If he stays healthy, Mark Brunell will be fine behind center. Clinton Portis ran well, if tenatively, and Santana Moss picked up where he left off. I'm not quite sure exactly what Brandon Lloyd brings to the table other than terrible hands and Randle El provided some razzle-dazzle, but where was he on the game's final kickoff? (I've got to get off the special teams, or I'm not going to able to sleep. And no need to point out that Ladell Betts had a great return on the last kickoff. I'm not debating that. It's just baffling why you shell out $30 million for Randle El yet have him sitting on the bench during a crucial return.)
It's interesting: The team spent over $55 million on Randle El and Lloyd, yet it still looked like there was no definitive #2 option for Santana Moss. And where was Chris Cooley hiding tonight?
The Redskins never were going to go 16-0, so it wasn't a matter of if they'd lose their first game, but when. It just hurts that it came at home against a very beatable team on a night when the 'Skins didn't play all that well in the first place. That they had a shot to tie as time expired could be a beacon of hope to a dispirted team. Or it could be a reminder that if the team had a decent kicker and punter, they would never have had to be disappointed in the first place.

The Chaz Rankings coming tomorrow. If I can actually stomach putting the Redskins behind the Vikings, that is.

Monday Afternoon Cornerback

Isn't it amazing how perception can change overnight?
Just 27 hours ago, the Carolina Panthers were considered the class of the NFC. The New England Patriots, after the Dolphins' debacle on Thursday night, were going to run away with the AFC East. And any fantasy team with Cadillac Williams was in good shape.
All that changed on yesterday's opening Sunday. The NFL, which appeared to be a muddled mess of mediocre teams, well, still appears to be a muddled mess of mediocre teams. But at least we now have some proof to back it up.
As always, it's important to remember that week one is just another week though. Take any of yesterday's results and stick them in the middle of the season and you wouldn't think twice about any of them (except, perhaps, Baltimore's thrashing of Tampa). Much will be written in the coming days about how Atlanta has emerged as the new NFC favorite and New England's throne will be challenged in the AFC, but all those stories are premature.
We don't look at the week seven results and extrapolate them to the rest of the season, so why should we do that in week one?

* The Philadelphia Eagles looked very go yesterday. Donovan McNabb looked fantastic, especially when keenly selling a play-action pass that resulted in a long touchdown pass to the newly acquired Donte Stallworth. The defense, led by Jevon Kearse, was attacking and Brian Westbrook didn't leave on stretcher. The guys on NBC's debut episode of Football Night in America practically named the Eagles the favorites in the NFC. But let's get something straight here: They played the Houston Texans. The same Houston Texans who went 2-14 last season. The same Houston Texans who took Mario Williams with the #1 pick in the draft (which they had, thanks to that 2-14 season). The same Houston Texans who made no discernable upgrade to their team in the offseason. The same Houston Texans whose running back is out for the season, forcing the team into starting a rookie from UVA. The same Houston Texans who, by all accounts, will be a simply terrible team in 2006. This is the team the Philadelphia Eagles beat. Excuse me if I'll delay hopping on their bandwagon.

* Count me as a big fan of the new John Williams-composed theme music to NBC's Sunday Night Football, but any dramatic impact Williams' rousing piece lends to the game is totally negated by the ridiculous intro with Pink. As pop stars go, I sort of like Pink, but which demographic is she catering to?

* It's amazing how much less amusing it is to watch LaVar Arrington's video intro when he's not on your team.

Superlatives
Game of the Day: New England 19 - Buffalo 17
Bill Belichick could stand to listen to Lauryn Hill: Karma, karma, karma comes back to you hard.

Upset of the Day: Baltimore 27 - Tampa Bay 0
It's not the result, it's the way it happened. Jamal Lewis ran nicely, the Ravens had a quarterback finish a game with over a 60% completion percentage and no interceptions for the first time in what seems like forever and everybody who wrote off Ray Lewis (clears throat, looks sheepishly at feet), you better hope he doesn't come find you. (I went to Home Depot and bought another deadbolt just in case.) The Ravens D looked like the Ravens D of old. And that has to scare everybody in the AFC., because if Steve McNair and Jamal Lewis can stay relatively healthy, the Ravens can win 11 games with ease. Or Tampa could just really suck.

Player of the Day: Jeff Wilkins - 6 FG
In a day devoid of offensive firepower, Wilkins' six field goals propelled the Rams to their upset win over Denver. Consider; three of Wilkins field goals were of over 48 yards. Without those, St. Louis loses. Get the MVP trophy ready, boys. At this rate Wilkins will score more points this season than nine NFL teams did in '05. I fully expect him to keep it up.

Ryan Leaf Player of the Day: Chris Simms - 17/29, 133 yds, 3 INT
As my chum Horo said yesterday during Simms' pick-fest, "I think we're seeing Chris Simms' coming out party."

Faulk Fantasy Player of the Day (Superstar): Larry Johnson - 67 rsh yds, 80 rec yds - 14 fantasy points
I'm not being fasacatious. On a day when no superstar broke out, Johnson had a very solid afternoon despite very pedestrian numbers. I didn't think much of Johnson before the season and, while I'm not ready to change my opinion yet, the sign of a fantasy superstar is the ability to post respectable numbers on a "bad day".

Boldin Fantasy Player of the Day (Surprise): Donte Stallworth - 141 rec yds, 1 TD - 22 fantasy points
They were playing the Texans. I can't stress this point enough, people.

Fantasy Bust of the Day: Shaun Alexander - 52 rsh yds - 5 fantasy points
It'd be hypocritical of me to bust out with an "I told you so!" tirade after earlier stressing that we shouldn't put too much stock in week one results. And since I'm not Bill Simmons, I won't. But it's not easy.

Who I Like On Monday Night And I Don't Mean Joe Thiesmann
Getting ready to head out to Happy Hour before the 'Skins game, so I'll be brief. Chargers win in a cakewalk over Oakland and the Redskins, despite the worst special teams in football, beat the Vikings 28-13.

NFL Picks: Week 1

Atlanta at Carolina
That new Nike football commercial with Michael Vick, LaDanian Tomlinson, Brian Urlacher and others playing high school football is pretty cool. The only way it could get better is if they showed Michael Vick gently telling the head cheerleader about his positive herpes test.
Pick: Carolina

Philadelphia at Houston
Texan fans, take solace: Philly rooters once hated their team's first-round draft choice too and his name was Donovan McNabb. So stop bellyaching about how Charley Casserly didn't take Reggie Bush and look forward to making it to the Super Bowl so Mario Williams can vomit on the field, you ungrateful punks.
Pick: Philadelphia

Denver at St. Louis
Last November before a Rams/Redskins match-up, The Washington Post ran this quote from new Rams starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Teammates expect me to know every answer to every question. During training camp, some guys were in a big, heated discussion, so I walked over to see what they were talking about. They said, 'Fitz, you can answer this question, you're from Harvard.' I said, 'Okay, maybe it's some trivial question, some history, something.' They said, 'What do you think would hurt more, getting hit in the face by the trunk of an elephant or being kicked in the face by a donkey?'

Up until Tuesday, that was the single greatest thing I had ever read in a newspaper. Until this gem, also from The Post:

Mike Rumph, one of five Miami Hurricanes on the roster, had hoped to watch
his school's big game with Florida State at safety Sean Taylor's house Monday night, but did not have his teammate's number. So instead, he absorbed the agony of the 13-10 defeat alone.

My buddy Jaffe and I debated last night whether Rumph actually didn't have SeanTay's number or whether SeanTay saw it was Rumph calling and tossed the phone to Santana Moss who then hot-potatoed it over to Clinton Portis who then took a bong hit and called up some Asian chicks.
Pick: St. Louis

Seattle at Detroit
"Michael Vick has an STD" jokes, ripping Donovan McNabb and hating on Mike Rumph. The trifecta! I'm back, baby, and already in mid-season form.
Pick: Detroit

Buffalo at New England
Three seasons ago, these teams met in the season opener and one team won 31-0. Four months later, the loser of that game (New England) went on to win the Super Bowl. Probability of Dick Jauron mentioning this nugget in Sunday's post-game press conference: I'd say strong to quite strong.
Pick:New England

Baltimore at Tampa Bay
By the way, I just had to look up who the Bills head coach was and then, upon seeing Dick Jauron's name, triple-checked to make sure that it was, in fact, Dick Jauron. I honestly had no idea. Had I been given a multiple-choice test where the question was "Who is the Bills coach?" and the only answer was "Dick Jauron," I still would have failed.
Pick: Tampa Bay

New Orleans at Cleveland
A new day dawns in the NFL. In this game, a player so electrifying; so exhilarating; and so dominant will debut that, years from now, people will look back upon it and remember that football as we know it started on September 10, 2006. Those previous 86 years? Worthless. For that generation knew not of greatness. Yes, my friends. That time is finally here. The Zach Strief era is upon us.
Pick: New Orleans

New York Jets at Tennessee
Jeff George once threw a ball so hard that he broke three of his receiver's fingers.
Chad Pennington once threw a ball so hard that it made it over the line of scrimmage.
Pick: Tennessee

Cincinnati at Kansas City
In a recent Sports Illustrated feature, Larry Johnson's next-door neighbors revealed how, after a dinner party in which the running back was quite aloof and stand-offish, he let himself into their house the next day and ran on their treadmill while they were out and, when they returned, warmly greeted them as if they were old friends. Maurice Clarett did the same thing to his neighbors during his brief stint in Denver except instead of running on the treadmill he stole all their jewlery and Grey Goose and instead of greeting them as if they were old friends he chased them around with a hatchet. But, other than that; exactly the same situation.
Pick: Cincinnati

Chicago at Green Bay
Facts:
1) Only two NFL teams had more interceptions than the Bears defense did last season.
2) No NFL quarterback threw as many interceptions as Brett Favre did last season.
3) Favre's numbers in his two games against Chicago last season: 108 pass attempts, 0 TD, 6 INT
I'm not trying to jinx anything here but if everything falls into place, there's a good chance Brett Favre could have the NFL's first 63-interception game.
Pick: Chicago

San Francisco at Arizona
After last year's successful Cardinals "home game" in Mexico, the Bush administration specifically requested that this year's contest stay in Phoenix, working under the assumption that the prospect of watching this game is the only way to get illegal Mexican immigrants back across the border.
Pick: Arizona

Dallas at Jacksonville
One of my favorite lines from "Nettie Moore", a standout track from Bob Dylan's newest masterpiece, Modern Times, is: "They say whiskey'll kill ya, but I don't think it will." In the Cowboy's case, however, Bobby D is willing to make an exception to that mantra.
Pick: Jacksonville

Indianapolis at New York Giants
In keeping with the "Manning Bowl" theme, eldest brother Cooper will serve as the game's honorary "Kick-Off Kid". Except while running onto the field to retrieve the kicking tee, he'll choke under the pressure whilst crying and demanding a trade to the Patriots.
Pick: Indianapolis

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 10 - The Finale
Final Standings, Playoff Predictions, Opening Night Pick

East W L Miami Dolphins 11 5 New England Patriots 10 6 Buffalo Bills 6 10 New York Jets 1 15 North W L Cincinnati Bengals 12 4 Pittsburgh Steelers* 11 5 Baltimore Ravens 9 7 Cleveland Browns 6 10 South W L Indianapolis Colts 11 5 Jacksonville Jaguars* 10 6 Tennessee Titans 5 11 Houston Texans 4 12 West W L San Diego Chargers 10 6 Denver Broncos 8 8 Kansas City Chiefs 4 12 Oakland Raiders 3 13 AFC Wild Card Round Jaguars over Chargers Steelers over Dolphins Divisional Playoffs Bengals over Jaguars Colts over Steelers AFC Championship Bengals over Colts Super Bowl Carolina Panthers over Cincinnati Bengals

East W L Washington Redskins 11 5 Dallas Cowboys* 10 6 New York Giants 8 8 Philadelphia Eagles 7 9 North W L Detroit Lions 12 4 Chicago Bears* 10 6 Green Bay Packers 8 8 Minnesota Vikings 7 9 South W L Carolina Panthers 13 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 7 New Orleans Saints 6 10 Atlanta Falcons 5 11 West W L Seattle Seahawks 9 7 Arizona Cardinals 9 7 St. Louis Rams 8 8 San Francisco 49ers 3 13 NFC Wild Card Round Redskins over Bears Cowboys over Seahawks Divisional Playoffs Panthers over Cowboys Redskins over Lions NFC Championship Panthers over Redskins

Tonight: Without Big Ben and The Bus, The Champs go down. Miami 23 - Pittsburgh 13

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 9
AFC Preview

East
1) Miami Dolphins (11-5)
"Always be wary of the trendy pick." I've repeated that sentiment on this site more times than I've questioned Derek Jeter's - well, not that much, but I've still said it a lot. Knowing this, I'm still going to make the trendy pick and go with the Dolphins to win the AFC East. (This is the NFL prediction equivalent of me drinking Jager. I don't want to do it but, dammit, I have to, consequences be damned.)
My outlook on the Dolphins season has changed as often as Reese Witherspoon's hairstyles in Legally Blonde. (For those counting at home, she had 40, one for every day Noah spent on the ark. That's the truth. Half of it, anyway.) On one hand, I think Daunte Culpepper might have been vastly overrated in Minnesota. Sure, he put up huge numbers with Randy Moss but, then again, so did Randall Cunningham, Brad Johnson and Kerry Collins. With his still-recovering ACL, it's not difficult to see Daunte struggling in Miami.
Remember, the Vikings were 2-5 with Daunte last year and 7-2 without. I'm going to repeat that for effect. With Daunte: 2-5. Without Daunte: 7-2. I might have missed the first day of statistics in order to go eat at Quizno's, but even without knowing what standard deviation is, I know that 7-2 is a lot better than 2-5.
Ergo, the change from Gus Frerotte to Culpepper might not be as positive as Nick Saban's hair believes.
Key Player: Ronnie Brown, RB Brown didn't fall to me in my fantasy draft, so I was forced to take Domanick Davis. As a result, I hope he comes down with a 17-week bout of food poisoning. He'll need a 1,200 yard, 8 TD season if the Dolphins want to dethrone the Pats.
Biggest Game: September 7 at Pittsburgh Yowzers! That's tomorrow! We'll see how Daunte's knee holds up and whether Ronnie Brown will make my fantasy season even more painful than it's already going to be.
Playoff Chances: Partly Sunny After ripping Daunte that hard, I have no clue why I'm picking the Dolphins to go 11-5. It must be Nick Saban's handsomeness.

2) New England Patriots (10-6)
Dynasties don't fade away as much as they collapse, just ask the Alaungpaya's. The Brits popped into Myanamar and BAM! King Bagyidaw and his peoples were out on the streets selling crack within minutes.
While I doubt Bill Belichick will be offering to squegee your windshield next season, the luster has already started coming off the Patriots shine. They took advantage of a weak schedule to finish a mediocre 10-6. This year they'll do the same, but it won't be enough to get into the playoffs.
Key Player: Tom Brady, QB I'm glad Sports Illustrated printed this quote about Brady from an opposing scout, "The best player on the team is still Tom Brady," because without it, I'd be thinking Reche Caldwell was the main man in Boston.
Biggest Game: None The Patriots are the definition of a veteran team. No game is bigger than any other to them.
Playoff Chances: Mostly sunny The schedule is easy (the division plays the AFC South and NFC North) and Brady is still Brady so, until further notice, Pats fans should keep their January weekends clear.

3) Buffalo Bills (6-10)
Everybody loves to rip Daniel Snyder and his free-spending ways (even though he hasn't erratically spent since 2000), but of those people, I'd ask the following question: Would you rather root for a team that has an owner who tries to improve it in the off-season or one that acquires Peerless Price and Larry Triplett and heads to Miami Beach for a little shuffleboard.
Do you know how depressing it must be to be a Bills fan? Not only do you likely live in Buffalo, not only did you lose four Super Bowls in a row, not only is your quarterback named J.P., but your team did nothing in the offseason to better itself despite an offense and a defense that both ranked 29th in the NFL in 2005.
Key Player: Willis McGahee, RB He has to create something out of nothing. And by nothing, I mean J.P. Losman.
Biggest Game: September 24 vs. New York Jets It's a near certainty they'll both be 0-2 heading into this game. Loser has the inside track at last place.
Playoff Chances: J.P. Losman. Rinse. Repeat.

4) New York Jets (1-15)
At least Jets fans can look forward to booing whichever player the team takes with the #1 overall pick in the 2007 Draft. That should keep them warm during the terrible season their team is about to embark on. Because with a weak-armed QB, a San Francisco cast-off and a new coach, the only thing in New York that will be more ugly than the Jets this year is Sarah Jessica Parker.
Key Player: Mike Nugent, K It's sad, I know.
Biggest Game: November 5 vs. BYE Even then, the Jets will probably be a four-point underdog.
Playoff Chances: As miniscule as A. Rod's clutch-hitting ability That's synergy, folks.

North
1) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Preseason football isn't good for much except lining the pockets of already-rich NFL owners, creating awesomely-entertaining feuds between newspaper colleagues and getting Clinton Portis hurt. But preseason football, even though mostly useless, does provide one key area of critique for teams: Quarterback play.
It was last preseason when the ineptitude of Patrick Ramsey became apparent; leading to his quick demotion in what would end-up being a playoff season. And this year, the preseason has shown Bengals fans that Carson Palmer appears to be recovering quite well from that gruesome knee injury that took place just 241 days ago.
Palmer has looked strong, poised and confident in the pocket and appears to be suffering no ill-effects from the injury on his throwing motion. Whether he'll be able to withstand the rigors of a 16-game season remains to be seen but, at the moment, Bengals fans have reason to be cautiously optimistic with their franchise player, provided Chris Henry doesn't shoot him in a locker room drive-by.
Key Player: Carson Palmer, QB He should ask for Eli Manning's advice on how to protect his knees. Wait for it... wait for it... There you go.
Biggest Game: December 31 vs. Pittsburgh The schedule-makers didn't do Cincy any favors down the stretch, as they finish at Indy, at Denver and then home against their division rival. The team will need to capitalize on their easy four-game stretch prior to that (at NO, at CLE, vs. BAL, vs. OAK) if they want to have any shot at repeating.
Playoff Chances: It's Carson's World If Carson Palmer can stay healthy, the Bengals should make a return trip to the playoffs for their first time since 1982 (and only the second time in franchise history.)

2) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
Remember that show Twin Peaks where a pre-Desperate Housewives Kyle MacLachlan investigated the death of a small-town girl named Laura Palmer? ABC had a big ad-campaign around that show and posted billboards and distributed t-shirts with the question, "Who killed Laura Palmer." If I were an enterprising Steelers fans, I would have made some t-shirts saying, "Who killed Carson Palmer," with a picture of Palmer writhing on the ground after the van Oelfhoffen hit. Tasteless, sure. Kitschy, yet timely: Absolutely. A steal at $10 a pop in the Heinz Field parking lot? Boss.
As I wrote yesterday, the Steelers were on the verge of missing the playoffs last season before they went on their magical Super Bowl run. They'll still be a good team this year but with a banged-up Big Ben, the absence of Jerome Bettis and his 110 carries and the prospect of every team getting hyped to beat the defending champs, the Steelers will be very fortunate to duplicate their 11-5 mark. (Their schedule seems pretty easy at this point though.)
Key Player: Willie Parker, RB He needs to prove he can carry the load without Bettis. His frame suggests this will be a problem.
Biggest Game: September 18 at Jacksonville Pittsburgh has 11 days off between tomorrow night's opener and their next contest, plenty of time for Roethlisberger to heal from his emergency appendectomy. If he doesn't play at Jacksonville, though, there might be trouble on the horizon.
Playoff Chances: Most Sunny With the Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots and Colts all figuring to be worse than they were a year ago, the AFC race is wide open. The Steelers easy schedule and experience bode well for them.

3) Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
I've always been a big Steve McNair fan, dating back to his dark-horse Heisman trophy campaign while at Alcorn State. But I have to say how surprised I'm surprised by the quickness in which McNair went from being thought of as washed-up to his current stature as franchise savior. I happen to think McNair will help the Ravens improve, but there's only so much an aging vet with bad knees can do with a shaky offensive line and no running game.
But, as always, the Ravens are a threat to make the playoffs because of their top-notch defense. If the o-line can keep McNair healthy and the defense can force turnovers, we might be forced with a few more years of Brian Billick press conferences.
Key Player: Jamal Lewis, RB Nobody expects him to run for 2,000 yards, but if McNair can keep defenses honest enough to give him some holes, Lewis could experience a return to form in '06.
Biggest Game: November 19 vs. Atlanta I have the Ravens sitting at 5-4 headed into their matchup against the Falcons in Baltimore. If they can grab a win there, they could be a factor in December.
Playoff Chances: Mostly cloudy If you want an idea of just how old Steve McNair is, he played two seasons for the Houston Oilers.

4) Cleveland Browns (6-10)
Leave it to Cleveland to entrust their season to a quarterback just because he went to college in the same city where LeBron James was born. If Charlie Frye does come through though, Ohio might just have to change their state capital to Akron. And yes, I just checked to make sure the capital of Ohio was not, in fact, Akron.
Key Player: Charlie Frye, QB His name is Charlie for crap's sake. Shouldn't he be running a chocolate factory instead of quarterbacking one of the proudest franchises in the league?
Biggest Game: It doesn't matter.
Playoff Chances: Seriously... Doesn't matter.

South
1) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
For this first time in the brief history of Chris's Sports Blog, I will not be picking the Indianapolis Colts to win the Super Bowl. (In checking that fact I discovered that I was wrong yesterday when I said I had never picked the Redskins to make the playoffs. In Gibbs' first year back, I predicted a 10-6 record and Wild Card appearance. Oops.) What does this mean, you ask? Bet heavy on the Indianapolis Colts.
The two most intriguing storylines in the NFL this season both involve Edgerrin James. His addition to Arizona's potent passing attack will be much-scrutinized early in the season but, perhaps just as interesting will be what his departure means to the Colts.
I could be wrong (and as evidenced above, often am) but other than Eric Dickerson, I can't think of another running back in his prime moving from a good team to a bad one. (And Dickerson's Rams weren't as good as the Colts had been; they won just one NFC West title during his time there - but did make the playoffs each year.) But even the Dickerson situation isn't comparable because he was traded early in the season after the Rams got off to an 0-3 start in the strike-shortened '87 campaign. (They then went .500 without him.) In their first two full seasons without Dickerson, however, the Rams made the playoffs both times.
The Edge question is sort of like the chicken and the egg. Was the Colts offense so good because of Edgerrin or was Edgerrin so good because of the Colts offense?
As with most questions of this nature, the answer probably lies somewhere in between. Other than a few superstars (Barry Sanders and Walter Payton, to name two), great running backs need great offensive lines. If Terrell Davis had played for the Browns, we never would have heard of him.
Indy's offense might take a hit, but they can afford to. If the defense keeps improving, the Colts will have another fine year.
Key Player: Dominic Rhodes, RB You were expecting Raheem Brock, perhaps?
Biggest Game: November 5 at New England Forget the win last year, Peyton still needs to prove he can win the big ones.
Playoff Chances: Mostly sunny The odds of the Colts making the playoffs are about as good as Peyton Manning choking in them.

2) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
Maybe you remember the Jags were pretty good last year. Maybe you even remember they made the playoffs. But did you have any idea Jacksonville was 12-4 just one season ago? I don't know what I thought their record was, but I'm positive I wouldn't have guessed any higher than 11-5. Twelve wins? That's the real deal. So why doesn't it feel like it?
Perhaps it's because Jacksonville had a soft schedule. The quirks of the NFL's scheduling are rarely mentioned after a successful season, but in the Jags case it should have been. If their slate had been any easier they would have been playing Virginia Tech's non-conference schedule.
So why isn't there more post-season schedule scrutiny? We talk about it at the beginning of the year, but not at the end. After all, an easy schedule in August has a way of turning into a brutal one in December and vice-versa. The NFL has more turnover than Al-Queda's #2, so evaluating a schedule's difficulty is impossible before the season. There are so many examples of this, but I'm too tired to find one from last year so instead I'll do what I always do and use the Redskins: Prior to last season there were a few "gimmie" games on their slate; vs. Chicago and at Tampa among them. Those ended up being two of the hardest games of the season. Conversely, two of the games that seemed to be the hardest in August of '05 (both Philly games) were among the easiest.
While the current schedule-making formula is far from perfect, it allows for much less quirkiness than the days of the unbalanced divisions. The NFC East had it tougher than the NFC North last year because they had to play both the Western divisions, but at least the four Eastern teams were playing on a fairly-level playing field. Back in the day there was no continuity intradivisionally except for playing the same AFC division and even then teams still could have different opponents because the divisions had more than four teams.
The current system isn't perfect because some divisions have it easier than others (would you rather play the NFC East or NFC West this season?), but it's a lot fairer than in baseball when the Devil Rays get 57 games against the Yanks, Sox and Blue Jays while the Twins had 57 against Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit. (That example would have worked a lot better last year.)
John Clayton wrote a fine column about schedule strength and I agree with his assertion that the Giants and Bengals schedules are brutal. But neither the Giants or Bengals can gripe. Because if you don't want to face four first place teams each season, don't frickin' finish in first yourself! To the victor goes the spoils, or something like that. In the NFL's case, the spoils are facing the defending champs of your division's two pre-assigned pairs plus the first-place teams from the remaining intra-conference divisions. Sure it's tough and I used the word "divisions" a lot in the last sentence, but that's what you get when you win. Plus, who knows if facing the Bears and Seahawks is going to be worse than playing the Lions and Rams or Vikings and Cardinals this year. You never know in the NFL.
Why did all this come up during the talk on Jacksonville? I don't know. The Jags aren't a 12-4 team. They'll come back down to earth this year, but only a little.
Key Player: Matt Jones, WR This has nothing to do with the fact that he's on my fantasy team. I promise.
Biggest Game: October 1 at Washington Out of conference games count the same as in-conference games, kind of. After starting off with Dallas, Pittsburgh and Indy, the Jags might need a win in Washington to be at .500 for their week 7 bye.
Playoff Chances: Solid No NFL team can afford injuries, but the Jags are really in a bind if starters should go down.

3) Tennessee Titans (5-11)
Man, Norm Chow really got a pass from the media last year, didn't he? Wasn't he supposed to be some sort of offensive genius? Yet the only thing that was offensive was his offense. That was lame. But it's late and I need to get this done.
Key Player: Billy Volek, QB The quicker he shows his crappiness, the quicker the Titans can make the transition to Vince Young.
Biggest Game: December 10 at Houston Young should be playing by this point and will give the Texans a first-hand glimpse of what they missed by passing on him, Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and every other player eligible for the draft last year.
Playoff Chances: You never know Except sometimes you do.

4) Houston Texans (4-12)
Sometimes I'll look back on my reaction to a certain event and I'll be surprised by my conviction or lack thereof on a given topic. Today, I went back to see what I wrote about the Texans taking Mario Williams to see if I thought it was as dumb at the time as I do know. Thankfully, I didn't disappoint.
That's all I'm going to say about the Texans because Domanick Davis killed my fantasy season and, thusly, my soul.
Key Player: Mario Williams, DE I'd sort of feel bad for him but he somehow got a $25 million contract despite not being all that good in college, so I won't lose any sleep over rooting against him.
Biggest Game: Like Paul Tagliabue couldn't have tinkered with the schedule on his way out to make the Texans play the Saints Dude, David Stern would have had 'em playing three times including twice on Christmas.
Playoff Chances: About as good as Mario Williams being better than Reggie Bush

West
1) San Diego Chargers (10-6)
Before starting these lengthy NFL predictions (Bill Simmons like to brag about how long his columns are; well, his NFL preview ran 5,489 words which was more than 200 words less than my NFC preview alone. The total for both this one and yesterday's: 9,927 words. And I have a job and am in school. And I didn't bitch out and pick my favorite team to win it all, sucka)... Anyway, the first thing I did was predict the finishing order in each of the league's eight divisions. Then I went through the entire 256-game schedule and picked each game, tallying up the win totals for each team along the way. Surprisingly (to me at least), these two methods resulted in identical final standings, save for one: On my original sheet I had the Broncos winning the AFC West. After going through each game, the Chargers came out on top. Against my better instincts, I'm sticking with the latter.
I'm basing this on one belief: Drew Brees was never as good as I thought he was. I've been a fan of Brees for a while, but he sort of reminds me of Brad Johnson in that he's good enough not to lose games but not great enough to win them. With two of the most potent offensive weapons in the league at his disposal in LDT and Antonio Gates, Brees and the Chargers should have been scoring more than Colin Farrell in Cozumel. Maybe it's Marty Schottenheimer's fault (actually, it's definitely Marty's fault), but Brees seemed to underachieve even when it appeared he was overachieving.
If Philip Rivers is remotely competent, the Chargers will improve from last year's disappointing campaign.
Key Player: Philip Rivers, QB Danie is the best player in football but it's Rivers' show.
Biggest Game: September 11 at Oakland With an early bye week, the Chargers need to get out of the gate quickly. A loss against a terrible Oakland team would have San Diego playing a game of catch-up that they might not be able to finish.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 The Chargers have three of the best players in football in LDT, Gates and Shawne Merriman. If Schottenheimer doesn't screw it up, they could be a surprise out west.

2) Denver Broncos (8-8)
Remember that whole Jake Plummer petition thing? We had a good time with that, didn't we? Features on major Web sites, interviews with a handful of radio stations but, most importantly, raising the national consciousness on mustache awareness and prevention-prevention. I actually got a call a few days ago from a wire service asking if the petition was still ongoing.
I answered with an affirmative "hell yes!" because Plummer still refuses to grow back his living tribute to Tom Selleck and instead chooses to rock a beard that makes him look like the next in line to marry Kate Hudson. Trust me, if I could pick the Broncos to lose 15 games, I would. But the Chiefs and Raiders are so weak I could bench press them. So the bearded one gets the nod. But it's one of those upward nods that suggests an ass-kicking is imminent should I not receive a pleasant hello in return.
With a mustachioed Plummer, the Broncos would be my pick to win it all. Instead they're just my pick to be better than Aaron Brooks.
Key Player: Karma Plummer's spitting in its face every time he trots out onto the field sans the 'stache.
Biggest Game: Every morning when Plummer looks in the mirror
Playoff Chances: Rises and falls with Gillette stock The Cliff's Notes of The Iliad told me two things: 1) I wouldn't have liked The Iliad and 2) You can only beat the fates once. The Broncos did it last year. That junk ain't happenin again.

3) Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
At the risk of repeating myself, I'm going to:

The loss of both Al Saunders and Dick Vermeil totally changes the complexion of the Kansas City Chiefs. Herm Edwards is a defensive coach and the new offensive coordinator, Mike Solari, is an o-line guy. (He worked with Saunders for the better part of the last decade so some might say the transition will be made with ease; but let’s not forget that some coaches might be brilliant working with, say, an o-line but struggle when they get a promotion. The Redskins Joe Bugel is a prime example of this. And that’s no knock of Buges or Mike Solari, either. But some guys are just better in the trenches than they are in the booth.)
Roaf’s retirement also kills the Chiefs o-line. When the future Hall of Famer missed chunks of time in 2005 the running attack didn’t suffer greatly, but it forced Tony Gonzalez into blocking duty. With linebackers not focused on Gonzalez’s route running, they were able to stuff more men in the box to contend with Johnson and Holmes. That will happen again this year. Oh, and I didn't even mention Kyle Turley.
August 21, 2006 - NFL Preview: Day 1

When I wrote that, I didn't even know the Chiefs didn't re-sign fullback Tony Richardson. Or maybe I did and just got so worked up that I forgot to mention it. Either way, that's yet another huge loss for that offense. Based on that info, I'm downgrading my forecast of Larry Johnson, which is impressive considering how low it was already. Factor in that the Chiefs defense has been terrible for years and it's going to be a long year in the midwest.
Key Player: Kyle Turley, LT Willie Roaf to Kyle Turley. There hasn't been a transition this bad since Leanna Creel replaced Tiffani-Amber Thiessen on Saved By The Bell.
Biggest Game: November 23 (Thanksgiving) vs. Denver Chances are, the most intriguing part of this game will be Bryant Gumble's commentary.
Playoff Chances: None This is the only solid prediction I'm making in this entire preview: The Kansas City Chiefs will not go to the playoffs.

4) Oakland Raiders (3-13)
Glitter, glisten, gloss, floss,
Aaron Brooks is fuckin' terrible.
Key Player: LaMont Jordan, RB Somebody's going to need to break-up the Moss/Brooks fistfight that will occur bi-weekly.
Biggest Game: December 31 at New York Jets This might be a battle for the #1 pick in the 2007 Draft, which will make it all the more bittersweet when the team's respective fans think of how close they were to getting Mario Williams.
Playoff Chances: Slim to None And I still can't believe the Texans didn't take Reggie Bush.

Chris's Sports Blog NFL Preview: Day 8
NFC Preview

As I’ve written many times before, an NFL team’s season is dictated by a handful of plays. If not for a holding call that negated a game-clinching first down for Dallas during the Redskins’ thrilling Monday night win, the team wouldn’t have made the playoffs. Yet if not for an erroneous ruling on a two-point conversion against the Buccaneers, the ‘Skins would have won the NFC East and earned a bye into the divisional playoffs.
One play goes differently, Joe Gibbs’ return would have been considered a failure. Another one goes another way, Joe Gibbs would have been Coach of the Year. It’s the same with each NFL team. The difference between 10-6 and 6-10 isn’t nearly as big as the so-called experts on ESPN would have you believe. Teams need to be good to play good. But, in a way, they need to be lucky to play great.
This NFL season will be no different. A missed tackle, one speed burst, a tipped ball, a key block, a specific playcall, one downed punt, a pushed field goal, a favorable spot or questionable penalty will dictate which teams sit at home during the playoffs and which play for the right to get to Miami.
Remember; today Jerome Bettis, Ben Roethlisberger and Bill Cowher are Super Bowl heroes. But if kicker Jeff Reed had missed a field goal with six seconds during a week 5 win at San Diego, the Steelers wouldn’t have even been in the playoffs.

East
1) Washington Redskins (11-5)
Sports Illustrated picked every team in the NFC East to finish the season 9-7. And if not for injuries, probability and reality, I might be inclined to agree. Each team in the division has great strengths and glaring weaknesses. They’ll beat up on each other in division play, but should feast on the rest of a relatively weak league. The NFC East once again is the premiere division in football and, just like in the ‘80s, it’s a long way to second place. (Only the AFC North could even be considered, but anybody who would take the Browns and Ravens over the Cowboys and Eagles is probably stuck with the last name Modell.)
Before you accuse me of being a homer for picking the Redskins to win the division, remember that in the two previous years picking the NFL season on this site, I haven’t once picked the team to go to the playoffs. (Last year I was made fun of for predicting a 9-7 finish.)
I’m doing so this year because the team that will step on the field in six nights is better than the one that ran off six straight victories this past December and January. Aside from Clinton Portis (we’ll get to him), the team is healthy, they addressed needs at defensive end (Andre Carter) and receiver (Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd) and they have a new offensive coordinator to help spread around the ball.
Clearly the injury to Portis is a major red flag though. A healthy Portis running in an Al Saunders offense could have help rewrite the record books. With Portis and his banged-up shoulder, it’s anyone’s guess as to how that will play out. My prediction: Portis gets the ball less as Saunders will use Ladell Betts, TJ Duckett and Rock Cartwright in short-yardage situations. Saunders’ zone-blocking technique will also enable Clinton to get to the outside more and avoid the bruising, up-the-gut running he did in Gibbs’ first two seasons.
The scary part of the NFC East is a team could finish last just as easy as they could finish first and that is exactly what will happen to the Redskins if their kicker and punter (John Hall and Derrick Frost, respectively) continue to reach the transcendental levels of shittiness they did last season. I have absolutely no clue how Frost is still on the team and if one of his patented 23-yard shanks is the reason the Redskins miss the playoffs, I just might have to bitch real loud about and make fake threats that I’ll never follow through on.
Key Player: Bubba Tyer, Trainer If Tyer can have Portis ready to go, it’s Super Bowl or bust for the Redskins.

Biggest Game: October 22 at IndianapolisWith three “should win” games before their week seven showdown in Indy, the Redskins could easily be 5-2 headed into a well-timed bye week.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 I don’t think any of us realize how crazy and unpredictable the NFC East is going to be.

2) Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
It’s not just Debbie and assassination aficionados who love Dallas this year. Most experts agree that the Cowboys are the team to beat in the NFC despite knowing the following things:
1) Drew Bledsoe once had his birth certificate doctored in the Dominican. He is actually 72-years old.
2) Julius Jones averaged 3.9 yards per carry in 2005.
3) Terrell Owens has started his shtick before the opening act even began, which puts the “T.O. Meltdown” clock at seven weeks and ticking. Fully expect Sportscenter to have a 24 style ticking clock accompanying all of Sal Paoloantonio’s reports in the coming days.
4) The team’s offensive line has only gotten older, not good news for an immobile Drew Bledsoe. Oh, and they got rid of Hall of Famer Larry Allen also.
5) Dallas’ defense, a solid unit last year, didn’t really get any better in the off-season.
6) Jerry Jones looks scarier than Liza Minelli.
Key Player: Terrell Owens, WR If he shuts his mouth and plays, Dallas is the Super Bowl favorite. And that’s why Dallas is not the Super Bowl favorite.
Biggest Game: September 10 (Sunday night) vs. Washington Last year the Redskins stole a win in the game’s final 3:32. A win in that one would have put Dallas in the playoffs. In the revenge, do-or-die game in D.C. before Christmas, Dallas was running their two-minute drill deep in Redskins territory trying to tie the ‘Skins before the break. Two interceptions later, the Redskins went into halftime up 28-7 and Dallas’ season, for all intents and purposes, was over. They’ll be out for revenge tonight.
Playoff Chances:50/50 Sense the theme.

3) New York Giants (8-8)
Has a defending division champion that had such little turnover ever received so little respect going into the next season? Granted, the Giants were more lucky than good last year (as evidenced by their blowout, shutout playoff loss to Carolina) and would have lost the division to the Redskins had the officials in the Bucs game actually been able to determine where a line begins, but New York is getting completely ignored in all the talk of the resurgence of the NFC East. Of the 12 morons picking on ESPN.com, only one has the Giants winning the division (yet a majority have them making the playoffs as a wild card).
That being said, of all the turnover in the NFC East, the Giants did the least of any team to help themselves in 2006. The LaVar Arrington signing generated a lot of ink, but other than him attempting to kill Mark Brunell during the team’s two meetings, LaVar will be his usual overrated, overpaid, over-ego’d self.
Eli Manning isn’t a good quarterback, but he’ll be a little better in 2006, which will off-set Tiki Barber who will be a little worse this year. (Worse for Tiki is great for most, but Tiki has to experience a drop-off this season… Right?)
Again, like all the teams in the NFC, the Giants have just as good a chance as any at making the playoffs (well, except for Philly), but Eli’s turnovers and some bad breaks will keep them out.
Key Player: Tiki Barber, RB If he runs like the Tiki of old, the Giants will be just as tough as last season. If he runs like an old Tiki, New Yorks fans will spend their January preparing to heckle A-Rod.
Biggest Game: December 30 (Saturday), vs. Washington Seems like a pretty good bet that somebody’s playoff lives will be on the line in this Saturday night matchup.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 If they played 100 different versions of the 2006 season, the Giants would probably make the playoffs just as many times as they missed it. Unless in this hypothetical situation Eli Manning began crying and demanded a trade to the Emerald City of Oz where no newspaper men ever call him a crybaby and he can get a new face that doesn’t make him look like the whiny, 12-year old bitch he really is. Because in that situation, it’d probably be more like 30/70.

4) Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
Maybe I’m missing something here. I know the Eagles went to the three straight Championship games without Terrell Owens and I know Donovan McNabb is supposed to be so great despite his penchant for late-game throw-up-ics, but why exactly is anybody considering the Eagles anything but an also-ran in the talented NFC East?
Brian Westbrook stays about as healthy as a smack addict, the Eagles vaunted defense allowed 30 or more points in five games last season and Donte Stallworth is being looked at as a savior. Once again; Donte Stallworth was a cause for excitement in Philadelphia.
Without T.O. Donovan McNabb once again has no vertical threat. That people are saying the Iggles won’t miss Owens because of Reggie Brown is sort of like saying the Commodores didn’t miss Lionel Richie because they had Kevin Smith. Desperate people will convince themselves of anything if it will lessen the impact of a departure.
College friends Falkow and Obaza: Yes, but the Eagles went to three straight NFC title games without Owens.
Me: Yes, but the NFC East was much weaker then. The Eagles rolled over the Redskins, Cowboys and Giants to the tune of 21-3 from 2001 through 2004. It’s not like that anymore.
Key Player: Donovan McNabb, QB Since he’s so fake off the field, maybe Donovan can act like he’s actually a good quarterback on it.
Biggest Game: October 29, vs. Jacksonville Philly has an easy schedule to start (and, thusly, a brutal one to finish). Assuming they beat Houston, San Fran, Green Bay and New Orleans and grab at least one win against the Giants, Dallas and Tampa, the Eagles could very well be 5-2 headed into a pre-bye-week match-up with the feisty Jags. A win there could propel them into a real playoff hunt. (And Donovan is a fine quarterback, but I really liked that line even if it probably didn’t make sense. It made sense to me and that, friends, is really all that matters.)
Playoff Chances: Slim In reality, no NFL team’s playoff chances are slim since a 16-game schedule tends to lead to a lot of anomalies and statistical outliers, but I just have a hard time seeing the Eagles making it through their schedule with at least nine wins. If they were in another division, they’d easily be a contender.

North
1) Detroit Lions (12-4)
OK, here’s the situation. My parents went away on a week’s vacation and they left the keys to the brand new Porsche. Would they mind… Hmmm… Well… Of course not. Shoot, wrong situation. Let me get my bearings by listening to “I Think I Can Beat Mike Tyson” and then I’ll be back.
Alright; better now. Here’s the real situation. In 2004 I chose the Jacksonville Jaguars as my Team du Anee. (It’s French. Look it up, you lazy sack of gabardine. (True story; I hit on a chick this past weekend in Montreal using the word “anee” since it was the only word in my French vocabulary.)) In 2005, the Jacksonville Jaguars made the playoffs.
In 2005, I chose the Detroit Lions as my Team du Anee. It’s now 2006. I think you see where this is going. The only question now is, which under-the-radar team is ready to make it big in 2007, thus earning my 2006 Team du Anee honors? And now I’m confusing myself, so I’ll stop.
Long story short: The Lions figure to improve in ‘05. I like their coach Rod Marinelli because he seems like one of those fire and brimstone type of guys and, while that always doesn’t work, it will be a welcome change to the Lions used to the Club Med atmosphere that was prevalent under Steve Mariucci. Cutting Charles Rogers was a good start. It says, “we’re not going to be slaves to the crappy talent evaluating of Matt Millen.” With Mike Martz look for Kevin Jones and Roy Williams to improve and the Lions to stumble their way to the title in the weak, weak, NFC North.
I know 13-3 is a stretch, but did anybody think the Jags would get to that mark last year?
Key Player: Kevin Jones, RB Unless his Virginia Tech bloodline imbues him with the urge to knock off an Arby’s at gunpoint, Jones could be a breakout player in ’06.
Biggest Game: December 24, vs. Chicago Lions fans should count their blessings that the Bears game in Chicago will be played week 2 and not week 15.
Playoff Chances: Solid The Packers and Vikings figure to be pushovers in the North, leaving the Bears and Lions to fight it out for the title. With the East beating each other up, there could be room for at least one team from outside that division to make the Wild Card.

2) Chicago Bears (10-6)
When thinking about the Chicago Bears, I’m inclined to take it back to 2001. It was a chaotic fall; crazed men mixed elements of the Qur’an and Die Hard 2 to massacre thousands of Americans, Britney Spears had a #1 song about a slave and Jeff George was the quarterback of the Washington Redskins. It was a scary time to be alive.
But not for Chicago Bears fans. The Bears, fresh off five-straight losing seasons, stunned the NFL, finishing 13-3 and running away with what would be the last NFC Central title ever. A ball-control offense (codeword for “a shitty one”) and a stingy, big-play defense is what helped catapult the Bears into the NFL stratosphere. But, despite a home game in the divisional playoffs, the Bears were easily outclassed by the Philadelphia Eagles.
If all that sounds familiar it’s because nearly the same thing once again happened in 2005. The Bears were coming off three losing seasons (each since that 13-3 year) and (just like in 2001), gave no indication of things to come in their first game, putting up seven against what appeared to be an equally inept Redskin team. Chicago would start 1-3, but ended the year on a 10-2 tear, winning the NFC North and once again earning a home playoff game. Just like in 2001, it was the Bears defense that led the charge. The playoff game was a little closer this time, but the Bears lost just the same when their shutdown corners seemingly forgot that Steve Smith existed.
Even though I like the Bears and love watching their defense, I’m betting that 2005 was as much of a fluke as 2001. That doesn’t mean either team was undeserving, it’s just that they got the breaks when they needed it. To be honest, the 2001 Bears were no more a 13-3 team than the 2002 Bears were a 4-12 one. Last year’s team might not have been as good as 11-5, but let’s say they experience only a little drop-off this year. (Actually, if I could go back and lower the Bears record I probably would, but I came out with 10-6 so that’s where I’ll leave it.)
Key Player: Cedric Benson, RB If he’s the real deal Holyfield, the Bears are golden.
Biggest Game: November 19 at New York Jets The Jets figure to be an easy win in ’06, which is good because that game comes in the middle of a stretch that begins with a home game against the Dolphins and back-to-back road games in New York, capped off by a trip to New England. Ouch.
Playoff Chances: Strong, to quite strong I picked the Lions to win the division, but the Bears have a better shot at making the playoffs. What does that mean? I don’t know. I’m still detoxing from Montreal.

3) Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Aside from their 48-3 Monday night loss to the Vikings, the Packers were only outscored by three points during their 4-13 debacle of a year ago. (It’s worth noting that if you take out their 52-3 win over the Lions, their margin of loss jumps up to 46, but I like my statistics the way I like my stores: convenient and stocked full of Boone’s Farm.)
My point: The Packers were one of those teams that probably weren’t as bad as their 4-12 record would indicate. Brett Favre still is a liability behind center (and due to break George Blanda’s interception record in early December), but with all those interceptions he’s due for a for few TDs too. Having a (relatively) healthy Ahman Green shouldn’t hurt either.
Key Player: Ahman Green, RB I wasn’t lying above when I said backs were important.
Biggest Game: September 10 vs. Chicago The analysts love to make a big deal about how important week 1 is, but that’s a bunch of crap. Still, a good performance by Green Bay would go a long way towards a successful season. A blowout loss to their arch-rivals and Brett Favre might be making a call to his pharmacist.
Playoff Chances: Mostly cloudy Their last five games are all winnable - (vs. NYJ, at SF, vs. DET, vs. MIN, at CHI) – particularly if the Bears have wrapped up the division and are resting their players. And as the Redskins showed last year, there is life to be had at 5-6.

4) Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
The truth is, I really haven’t given the Vikings a second thought this offseason. Only through the recent routine pre-game articles in The Washington Post about them (the Redskins open up on Monday night against the Vikes) have I learned about how Brad Childress is bald and that Steve Hutchinson is there (I knew he left Seattle, but forgot where he went.) And now that I see that they went 9-7 in ’05, I’m starting to get a little worried. My chest is getting tense. I need to calm down a bit. OK, there’s the article about how Childress is expecting his system to struggle early. And here’s their ’05 results with seven of their eight “real” wins over teams with less than six victories. (They beat Chicago in the season’s final game, but the Bears had already sealed up a bye in the playoffs.)
With a new system, new coach and a lifelong backup in the RB slot, expect a long season in great white north.
Key Player: Napoleon Harris, LB With a name like Napoleon, brotha better dominate.
Biggest Game: December 21 (Thursday) at Green Bay Could be for wild card position or could be for cellar position. I’m not fully counting out the former, but the latter seems like the safe play.
Playoff Chances: Slim They could do it, but I could theoretically hook up with Rihanna too.

South
1) Carolina Panthers (13-3)
I’ve never been the biggest Keyshawn Johnson fan. Maybe it was the post-rookie year book, maybe it was the fact that he never really did anything in the playoffs (or even got there) or maybe it was the high-top fade he had at USC (speaking of which, I saw a dude rocking the HTF in Montreal. Unfortunately it was only 11 a.m. and I didn’t have enough booze in me to go up to him to ask him to say ask him where his buddy Play was at). But I think the Keyshawn Johnson signing might end up being the biggest positive signing of this off-season by any team. (Some teams letting players go might have a bigger effect; hello Seattle Seahawks.)
If Steve Smith can catch 103 balls and 13 TD without a clear-out guy in the middle, imagine what he’ll do with Keyshawn drawing coverages inside. Say what you will about Key, but he goes in the middle like a guy trying to make the practice squad. With him clearing holes for Smith and DeShaun Foster, Carolina’s offense might be able to compliment their stacked defense.
Key Player: DeShaun Foster, RB Not that I don’t like DeAngelo Williams, but Foster needs to stay healthy to keep defenses honest.
Biggest Game: November 13 (Monday) vs. Tampa Bay The two best non-NFC East conference games of the year both happen before Thanksgiving. Thanks schedule makers!
Playoff Chances: About as good as the odds of the my mom asking me the next time I see her why I always feel the need to call Eli Manning a “bitch”. In case you couldn’t tell, the Panthers are my NFC favorites.

2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Seems like they’re due for a drop-off which, luckily for them, doesn’t mean too much in a division as weak as the NFC South. It’s just tough to see Chris Simms doing much with a depleted receiving corps and a running back in Cadillac Williams that doesn’t seem ready to be an every-down back.
Key Player: Chris Simms, QB Because his daddy will hunt you down and whip your ass with a bottle of peroxide if you say anything bad about him.
Biggest Game: November 19 at Washington The Bucs lost twice last year to the Redskins and got a free shower from Sean Taylor. They’ll want payback. And some Panteen.
Playoff Chances: 50/50 Who do you think I am, Nastradamus? (New album, Hip-Hop is Dead, droppin’ this fall. Sucka.)

3) New Orleans Saints (6-10)
If:
Drew Brees > Aaron Brooks
Deuce McCallister <> Hobbled Joe Horn
Will Smith > LL Cool J
Will Smith, second-year vet > Will Smith, rookie
Empty open-air stadium in Shrevport <> Saints ‘05
Key Player: Reggie Bush, RB If only because my string of fantasy playoff appearances is in serious jeopardy.
Biggest Game: September 25 (Monday) vs. Atlanta First game at the Superdome since Katrina. If they can’t win that one, it’s going to be a long season.
Playoff Chances: Slim Reggie will be great, but their defense is still terrible. Hmm, perhaps they should have traded up for Mario Williams.

4) Atlanta Falcons (5-11)
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: Tailoring a west coast offense around Michael Vick is like giving Van Gogh a Lite-Brite. Or Beethoven a recorder. Or Marion Barry some aspirin. Greatness needs to be coaxed. Michael Vick should be great. But at this point in his career he is a below-average NFL quarterback. And I’ll debate anybody on that topic at any point. And I’ll win because I’m good at two things and one of them is arguing.
Key Player: Jim Mora Jr., coach If he develops the ability to develop a rational thought and surrounds his offense around Michael Vick instead of vice-versa, the team might return to the playoffs.
Biggest Game: September 17 vs. Tampa Bay Atlanta has lost to the Bucs in their last three contests. If they lose in week one, they might develop one of those phobia things for their follow-up game in December.
Playoff Chances: Partly cloudy With Vick, Warrick Dunn and a stout pass defense, Atlanta can play with the best teams in the league. A lack of depth at receiver, poor run defense and a lack of intelligence at coach is what’s hindering them.

West
1) Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
You know the statistic; of the last five Super Bowl losers, none have made the playoffs the following year. I’d like to predict that streak would continue in 2006 because, as any reader of this site knows, I never thought the Seahawks were all that good last year and I think they’ll be even worse in 2006.
The loss of Steve Hutchinson will hurt the ‘Hawks offense more than they can imagine, as will Shaun Alexander’s big contract extension. The word on Alexander is that he’s softer than that Charmin baby; now that he’s got his big money deal, don’t expect him to carry the ball 370 times and mean business on every single one. You saw how he faked an injury in the ‘Hawks playoff win over the Redskins. People inside the ‘Skins locker room after that game said the players believed Alexander took bimself out because he didn’t want to get hit. Sounds far-fetched; but not when you have tens of millions of dollars on the line.
Seattle was very good last season. But they snuck out wins (and I mean snuck out) against Atlanta, St. Louis, Dallas, San Francisco, New York and Tennessee. Factoring in the game against the Redskins that they deserved to win (Josh Brown missed late field goals) and Seattle was 6-1 in close games. Bring that closer to the average (4-3) and suddenly their awesome 13-3 season becomes a more-pedestrian 11-5. Except the balls to bounce against the team this season. I’d pick them to not make the playoffs, but their division is too weak it would take a collapse of Rodriguezian proportion to keep up that Super Loser Slide.
Key Player: Floyd Womack, LG Pork Chop Womack replaced Steve Hutchinson. And when you’re dependent on a guy named Pork Chop… I don’t even know how to finish that.
Biggest Game: December 3 at Denver I have no reason why.
Playoff Chances: Solid Unless the Cardinals live up to the hype (see below), don’t expect Seattle to miss out on the postseason. (But I’m serious about this Shaun Alexander thing; I hope you didn’t draft him too high in your fantasy drafts.)

2) Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Many time-honored summertime traditions were snapped this year. Lance Armstrong didn’t win (or cheat) in the Tour de France, a Tom Cruise action-movie didn’t dominate the box office and my friend Antzo failed to sustain his three-beer-cans-crushed-on-head-per-week pace. Thankfully, though, some traditions die hard. Because, just like with those Jerry Lewis telethons, you know it’s Labor Day when all major sports media publications are touting the Arizona Cardinals as a potential sleeper. (Something that’s always an interesting exercise in itself. With only 32 NFL teams, the pool of potential sleepers probably is around eight. At least 16 teams are considered playoff material while eight others are thought to have no chance. That leaves eight teams to pick from and, inevitably, somebody’s going to be right when they say the Lions, Cardinals, Browns or Vikings will emerge from the pack as the surprise team of the year. But I digress.)
As in year’s past, everybody is trying to get on the Cards bandwagon so they can claim their seat should the team actually end their years of futility. Bill Simmons did this last year, then turned all “Japanese history textbook” on his readers and acted like it never happened when they tanked.
The main reason everybody has always been wrong about the Cardinals is because even when the team makes a splashy signing (Emmitt Smith) or an intriguing coaching hire (Vince Tobin) or lands a top prospect (Simeon Rice, David Boston, Thomas Jones, Leonard Davis, or pretty much anybody the team has ever drafted), one thing still remained constant in Arizona: The team sucked.
An NFL team needs one of two things to succeed over the course of a season: A solid, stable rushing attack or a solid, stable defense. In their history in Arizona, none of the 18 teams the Cardinals have fielded has had either of these attributes.
A quick review of the 36 playoff teams from the past three years supports the RB/defense theory. Of those squads, all but one had either a potent running game or top-ranked defense. (The lone exception was the ’04 Vikings, a team that finished 8-8 with the top-ranked passing offense in football. And even they had a decent running back-by-committee going with Michael Bennett, Mewelde Moore, Moe Williams and, yes, Onterrio Smith, combining for 1,360 yards on 289 carries.)
It’s easy to say the Cards addressed the running problem by signing Edgerrin James, but the problem hasn’t been as much in the back as it’s been in the line for Arizona. Edgerrin is still an all-world talent, but even Emmitt in his prime would have suffered running behind Oliver Ross and Milford Brown.
The Cardinals are a sexy pick because their receivers put up huge fantasy numbers. While that’s nice for their fantasy owners, racking up huge yardage totals in losses doesn’t help the team. Arizona has a new stadium that has been described as an architectural wonder. They have a running back who’s posted Hall of Fame numbers early in his career. They have a former NFL MVP at quarterback and two All-Pro candidates at receiver. But they’ll still spend January on the sidelines.
Key Player: The Offensive Line If they can keep Kurt Warner healthy and open up some gaps for Edgerrin, the Cards could actually live up to expectations for once.
Biggest Game: October 16 (Monday) vs. Chicago The Cardinals make their national television debut in their new digs against a team that figures to join them in the Wild Card hunt.
Playoff Chances: Partly Cloudy The NFC is stacked this season and any team that wants to be in the postseason has little margin for error. And, as I always say, a few plays can dictate a season’s success. Maybe playing in front of sold-out crowds in their new stadium could swing a few the Cardinals way. But I wouldn’t put money on it.

3) St. Louis Rams (8-8)
If you want to read a Rams preview, pick up a Sports Illustrated. As usual, their football preview issue is wonderful and is an example of why the internet can never replace the print media. Supplement, yes. Replace, no.
Instead, I’m going to mention for the umpteenth time how absolutely absurd it is that Leonard Little is both a free man and able to make millions playing football for a living. For those not aware, Little killed a wife and mother while drunk driving in 2000. He was sentenced to 90 days in prison and 1,000 hours community service, which I suppose is pretty normal for those with a high-priced lawyer.
But that’s not why I loathe Leonard Little. People drive drunk all the time and don’t kill 47-year old women. It doesn’t make it right, but it also doesn’t make Leonard Little the devil because his stupidity caused a death while other people’s stupidity just causes a hangover. No, I hate Leonard Little because after killing a woman because he was drunk, he went out and got arrested again for drunk driving in 2004. He was later cleared of all charges because he failed to take a breathalyzer, but not taking a breathalyzer is as much an admission of guilt as blowing a .17. And don’t act like you don’t agree.
Listen, I’m no saint and I’m not naïve. I don’t expect Leonard Little to be a boy scout because of an unfortunate accident. But this cat makes millions of dollars and still drives himself around drunk after killing a woman??? That’s just sickening. He should have been thrown in jail for at least two years and, at the minimum, had his license revoked for the rest of his life. Asshole.
Key Player: Steven Jackson, RB Can he carry the load?
Biggest Game: December 17 at Oakland They’ll need this one to have any shot of making the playoffs.
Playoff Chances: Solid Provided Leonard Little doesn’t drive the team bus into the Arch.

4)San Francisco49ers (3-13)
I was a big fan of the idea of a Sunday Night Football game of the week when it was announced last year. Having a marquee game in primetime would be a great way to wind down a day of watching football, I thought.
But then reality set in and I came to a realization: Do you know how much it’s going to suck having to stay up until midnight to watch your tenth hour of football on a Sunday? Let’s say your team has a 1:00 game. You watch that and then probably casually view the 4:00 game as you’re doing other things. In the past, there’d probably be one or two marquee Sunday night games over the course of the year you’d get excited for and make plans to watch, but more often than not, those games would be of little non-fantasy interest to you and you’d either do something productive with your night, channel surf between the game and various other shows or have the game on in the background as you did other things.
But now? That’s all shot. Expect to stay on the couch all day Sunday because you’re not going to want to miss Peyton/Eli. In week 2 the classic Dallas/Washington rivalry hits Sunday night. I’m an NFC guy, but I’ll still be up for watching Denver/New England in week 3. The following three Sundays provides a bit of a reprieve, but even Seattle/Chicago, Pittsburgh/San Diego and Oakland/Denver are eminently watchable. The World Series takes over in week 7, but Sunday night comes back with a gusto with a stretch of Dallas/Carolina and Indy/New England. Then, in week 10, the flexible scheduling begins, meaning the best of the Sunday afternoon games will be moved to the night. Long gone will be the days of getting excited for the 4:00 contests. Now you’ll have to wait all day to see Indianapolis at Dallas (a probable week 11 Sunday nighter) or Pittsburgh at Carolina (week 16). I suppose the networks have some leeway on which games NBC can select, but you know the NFL will side with the peacock network when it comes down to it.
I love football but even I can’t fathom spending a full 11 hours on the couch on Sundays. The new Sunday-night-as-marquee-game thing might seem like a blessing, but I’m thinking it’s going to end up being more of a curse. Just like the 49ers season.
Key Player: Alex Smith, QB With his small hands, Isotoner is really missing the boat on some follow-up commercials to their old Dan Marino campaign.
Biggest Game: December 3 at New Orleans Because that’s the page I was opened to.
Playoff Chances: Come on now. That’s just mean.