A Brief History of (Super Bowl) Lines

Imagine turning the business section of your newspaper and listed alongside the values of gold, pork bellies and other commodities were the going street rates for marijuana, crack and every other illegal drug on the market. It'd seem a bit weird, right? Why would a reputable outfit like a newspaper print information that could only be used for illicit purposes?
Yet open any sports page in the country (with the exception of the prententious, and worthless, New York Times sports section) and, there, listed in the agate type are lines for sporting events that are illegal to bet on in nearly every state in the country.
The Super Bowl is the second-biggest gambling event in the U.S. (behind the NCAA Tournament). This year, $100 million will be wagered legally, about 1/10th of the total of illegal bets that will be placed via the internet and office pools. And while exotic prop bets have become popular in recent years, the point spread is still the most popular way to bet on the Super Bowl.
Today, Chris' Sports Blog takes a look at Super Bowl point spreads throughout history, all while taking unnecessary cheap shots at the Patriots. Enjoy.

Best Lines
Super Bowl XXVIII: Oakland (+2.5) vs. Washington
The 1983 Washington Redskins were a juggernaut. They were defending Super Bowl champions, went 14-2 with the two losses coming by a combined two points on two Monday Nights two months apart (including the infamous 48-47 track meet with Green Bay that still holds the record for most points scored on MNF) and, most impressively, set the record for most points scored in an NFL season (a record that wouldn't be broken for 15 years). The 'Skins had All-Pros on both lines, a quarterback in the prime of his career and a Hall of Fame running back who had just set the NFL record for most touchdowns in a single season (a record which would stand for about a decade too). In short, before the Super Bowl, it would have been fair to assume the '83 Redskins were among the greatest teams of all-time.
Oakland, on the other hand, was a pretty good team. They finished 12-4 on the regular season and avenged two division losses to Seattle in the AFC Championship game (remember, Seattle was in the AFC back then). Oakland was good, but the Redskins were potentially great; which is why the fact that Washington was only favored by 2.5 is so damn fascinating.
Clearly, the low spread was caused by Oakland and Washington's regular season meeting, won by the Redskins 37-35 at RFK. Oakland came back from a 20-7 deficit in the 3rd quarter to score four quick touchdowns which put the Raiders up 35-20 with just 7:30 minutes remaining. A quick Thiesmann-to-Charlie Brown TD pass preceded a fumbled kickoff and a Mark Moseley field goal with 4:28 remaining to cut the lead to five. A failed Oakland drive followed, giving ther Redskins 110 seconds to get a touchdown starting from their own 31. Three straight passes to Brown got the 'Skins to the Raiders six with 43 left and, two plays later, Thiesmann hit Joe Washington streaking up the middle for the touchdown that sealed the win.
That close game was likely what dictated the 2.5 spread and it was a play in that game that led to the Raiders eventual blowout.
As NFL Films so expertly detailed on a Super Bowl Highlights VHS I watched over-and-over again in my earlier years, in the first Redskins/Raiders game Joe Gibbs called a play named "Rocket Screen" that went for 67 yards. The Raiders defensive coordinator had a hunch Gibbs might try to run it again, so he put Jack Squirek in certain packages to spy Joe Washington while other defenders dropped back into a sort of prevent.
Down 14-3 with the ball at his own 12 and only 12 seconds left in the half, the conservative Gibbs figured to down the ball and enter the locker room with an eleven-point deficit and the ball to start the second half. Instead, Gibbs called the rocket screen, Thiesmann never saw Squirek, who jumped the route, had the ball hit him in the numbers and walked, untouched, into the endzone for a 21-3 Raiders halftime lead.
In the case of Super Bowl XXVIII, the 2.5 spread wasn't a sign that the Redskins were superior, but that they were very vulnerable.

1995: San Francisco (-18.5) vs. San Diego
San Diego went 11-5 and had two wins in five weeks over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the team who earend homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. They played a brutal schedule and were not competitive in only one game, a 38-15 home rout by the team they would meet in Sure Bowl XXIX, the San Francisco 49ers.
It was likely for that game, and that game alone, that the oddsmakers bumped this spread up to 18.5, the highest in the history of the Super Bowl (yes, even higher than Super Bowl III, but thankfully we were spared the sight of Stan Humphries guaranteeing a victory whilst wearing a Speedo this time around). Based on records and stats, the Niners might have been two touchdown favorites.
As expected, the Niners jumped all over the Chargers early, so the only late-game drama was to see whether San Diego could get within 19 and come in under the spread, but a late on-sides kick failed and Bobby Ross was left to wonder what might have been if Stan Humphries was named Joe, from Broadway and wanted kisses from Suzy Kolber.

Worst Lines
1998: Green Bay (-11.5) vs. Denver
The defending Super Bowl champs had a fine follow-up season after Brett Favre's magical Super Bowl victory, a victory punctuated by that boyish celebration which showed how Favre is the game of football personified. Oh, how I love you Brett Favre. Me and The Wolfman.
Anyway, Green Bay ran through the NFC, finished 13-3 and had an easy time with the best teams they played, running a 7-1 record against teams over .500. But the Broncos were #1 in total points and total yards, and #7 in points allowed and #5 in yards allowed, the defensive stats beingvery similar to Green Bay's rankings.
It could be argued that the NFC contained the two best teams in football (GB and SF), but after those two, the talent dropoff was precipitous. The AFC, however, had few great teams but a lot of good ones, which helps explain Denver's unspectacular 12-4 record. A playoff rout of 11-5 Jacksonville set-up a game against the presumptive AFC favorites, Kansas City. The Chiefs won their last six games of the regular season, including a 44-9 drubbing of 11-1 San Francisco. Kansas City was the team to beat in the AFC and Denver did it, then desposed of Pittsburgh in the title game.
So why were Packers favored by so many points? Green Bay barely beats San Francisco and is instantly crowned king of the NFL, but Denver goes on the road to beat the team that blew out San Francisco and they're rewarded with an insulting line? What, was Rex Grossman their quarterback?
No, it was John Elway. And his reputation as a crybaby whiner who wouldn't go play for Baltimore was long forgotten, just as his three Super Bowl losses by a combined score of 118-40 were too. Elway finally had somebody to hand the ball to that wasn't named Sammy Winder and, with Terrell Davis, Denver posed a great challenge to the overhyped Packers. They did, thus giving us the worst line in modern Super Bowl history.

Super Bowl XXII: Denver (-3) vs. Washington
In retrospect, nobody knew what to expect from Super Bowl XXII. Both the Redskins and Broncos had escaped from their respective Championship games (a broken-up pass in the endzone by Darrell Green for the 'Skins and "the fumble" for Denver) and had numerous question marks at various positions. Coupled with the hype over Doug Williams becoming the first black man to start at quarterback in a Super Bowl (and with the fact that he and Jay Schroeder had been playing QB roulette all season) and anybody who claimed they knew what was going to happen was probably spending too much time hanging around Dexter Manley.
So this line isn't bad because it was poorly set, it's bad because it ended up being poorly set. After racing out to a 10-0 lead, Denver didn't score the rest of the game and watched Williams and the Redskins blow-up for 35 second quarter points, a Super Bowl record. Another garbage TD in the second half made the final 42-10, or 42-7 according to the spread. That 35 point margin is the most of any spread-score in Super Bowl history.

Lines That Were Too Good
2000: St. Louis (-7) vs. Tennessee
1997: Green Bay (-14) vs. New England
It's not too surprising that the only two "pushes" in Super Bowl history were in games where the spreads were multiple of seven - hell yes, using 3rd grade math for the first time since 1989! In 2000, of course, Kevin Dyson (left) was inches away from scoring a game-tying touchdown that would have sent the game into overtime (assuming Tony Romo wasn't holding for the Titans that day) and given bookies what they likely wanted; a result that paid, instead of returning bets for a push.
Three years earlier, the Packers were two-touchdown favorites against a New England team that was fortunate to play Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game instead of the team everyone thought would be there, 13-3 Denver. (Terrell Davis had to wait to carry John Elway to his first ring in the next season.) They ended up winning 35-21.

Lines Indicating Oddsmakers Had No Clue What To Do
XL: Pittsburgh (-4) vs. Seattle
XXXVII: Oakland (-4) vs. Tampa Bay
XXXV: Baltimore (-3) vs. New York Giants
XIX: San Francisco (-3) vs. Miami
XVII: Washington (-3) vs. Miami
XVI: San Francisco (-1) vs. Cincinnati
XV: Oakland (-3) vs. Philadelphia
It's no surprise that, with the exception of Washington/Miami, all these Super Bowls were pretty unwatchable. It would seem to reason that low point spreads would equal a better game, but Super Bowl history says otherwise. Losing teams have never won against a spread less than six in the game's 41 year history. The closest one came to doing so was in Super Bowl XIII when the Cowboys were getting 3.5 and lost by 4.
Everyone looks back on that Baltimore/New York game and assumes that because Baltimore won so convincingly, they were the odds-on pregame favorite. The line, however, suggests otherwise. In retrospect it's easy to say Baltimore's offense could handle the Giants, but let's not forget that New York blew out Minnesota 41-0 in the NFC Championship, while the Ravens offense went five straight games without scoring an offensive touchdown during the regular season. Once Trent Dilfer was named quarterback they improved, but in those 2000 playoffs Baltimore hardly showed offensive firepower, scoring 21, 24 and 16 points in their three AFC victories.

Line Facts
* No AFL team was favored in the first four pre-merger Super Bowls that automatically pitted teams from the two leagues. Even after the Jets stunning win in Super Bowl III, the oddsmakers didn't learn their lesson, as they installed the NFL's Vikings as 13 point favorites over Hank Stram and the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl IV. They got the final margin close (it was 16), but for the wrong team. KC blew out Bud Grant and the Vikes.
After the merge there was realignment and no longer a guarantee that teams from each league would meet. Indeed, in the first post-merger Super Bowl two NFL teams matched-up, with Dallas playing Baltimore. (It was only then that a Super Bowl point spread would come to a respectable level (Baltimore - 2.5). Jim O'Brien's game-winning field goal didn't alter the betting, but had he missed and the game gone to overtime, those who wagered on Dallas still could have won. It was the first time in Super Bowl history that an end-of-game play would affect the betting.)
The first time an AFL team was favored over an NFL team was in Super Bowl VII when the Washington Redskins were underdogs against the undefeated Miami Dolphins. It might surprise you that the Dolphins, now known for their semi-annoying champagne-swilling every season when the last undefeated team loses, thus keeping their record in tact, were only slight favorites against a very pedestrian Redskins team. So slight, in fact, that to this day, this spread still holds the record for the lowest in Super Bowl history. (It's actually tied for the lowest, but adding that nugget into the previous sentence sort of compromises the inherent drama.)
Yes, folks, the amazing, historic, unbeatable, never-duplicated, mighty 1972 Dolphins were favored by a Garo Yepremian extra point. One point. Just one. This might have had something to do with the fact that the Dolphins' opponents winning percentage was .367 on the year and they didn't win a playoff game by more than a touchdown. But I'm just saying. One point?!! Didn't you assume those guys were thought to be so good that Vegas was going to start breaking out abacuses to figure out the spread?

* In the Patriots' first three Super Bowl appearances, they were a combined 35.5 point underdog. In their last two, they've been a combined 14 point favorite, but have failed to cover each time. Yet somehow ESPN still thinks the 2004 team was one of the ten best in history.

* The now-standard "prop" bets, which can include betting on the first player to score a TD, which running back will have more yards, who will win the coin toss, etc. was created by Caeser's Palace in 1985 when they put odds on whether Bears defensive tackle William Perry would score an offensive touchdown. He did, of course, while Walter Payton did not. This year, there are over 250 available prop bets to choose from.

* Favorites are 22-16-2 in Super Bowls.