Divisional Playoff Picks: Guest Edition

Since the Super Bowl and Championship games are usually yawners, Divisional Playoff Weekend has become the premiere two days on the NFL calendar. At this time last year, I was suffering from the shakes and had to drink myself to sleep in order to prepare for the Redskins first Divisional Playoff game in six years. Not surprisingly, this year seems a bit anticlimatic. (Although I'm still drinking myself to sleep, albeit for totally different reasons. Oh relax, Mom... It was a joke.)
Anyway, due to my semi-apathy about the games and my reluctance to write about anything not related to how the 'Skins need to take David Frost out for a drive to a nice farm where he can live out his days shanking bales of hay to fair-catching cows, I've enlisted some help from some family and friends, each of whom have a close tie to teams playing in each contest.
Some are fans - ranging from die-hard optimists to just-die pessimists - others have an intimate knowledge of the team because they happen to live in that city. Either way, their opinions are strong and their hatred of Eli Manning is stronger, so much so that I've put the kibosh on Eli-bashing. Why? Because I'm a damn gentle soul.
Onto the analysis!

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
By Phil
Phil grew up in Baltimore, roots for the Ravens and hates Cal Ripken Jr. And that is all you ever need know. He breaks down the Ravens/Colts match-up in four parts:
1) The Ogden-Freeney match-up.
I'm surprised this hasn't received more attention, because not only did Freeney destroy him last time they played, but it was a national TV game (Monday Night last season).
Ogden has slipped a little since his prime, but he still remains a competent blocker and good force on the O-line. But his two biggest problems are: speed rushers who are much smaller than he, and D-lineman with good spin moves.
Well? No one sees a problem with this? The last time they played, Ogden looked like a sleepy grizzly bear trying to swat at a pissed-off hornet. He doesn't get his body weight very low, he relies too much upon his hand-checking, he's dealing with a toe injury, and he generally just struggles against faster guys with speed moves. Looks like a bad match-up for the Ravens.
I was hoping that Billick might have used the week to practice with Ogden at LG (where he played his rookie year, and did well) and insert Tony Pashos (a smaller guy with good, quick feet) at OT. But I haven't seen any indication that he will. So, this goes in the book as a big plus for the Colts and a question mark for Ray-Ray's boys.
2) Samari Rolle
See, this is the kind of thing that you only get when you watch a team every week. The Ravens are said to have a great Defense (which they do) and a great secondary (which they pretty much do), so individual players are sort of glossed over. But Rolle has been pretty weak all year, and terrible in a few games. They've disguised it well with Ed Reed and the rookie safety Dawan Landry (a true revalation) playing well, but it's tough against a team with 2 good WRs. Look at the last game Baltimore lost - week 13 vs. Cincinnati, with both TJ and Chad Johnson having good games. Frankly, the Ravens are lucky they didn't lose that game by more (although I guess it doesn't matter).
If the Colts can get a little time to throw, they send Wayne and Harrison to opposite sides, McAllister stays with Harrison, and Samari Rolle is responsible for Wayne. They'll try to give him help from the Safety or even LB spot, but Peyton is mixing run and pass and using Play-action effectively, and more blitzing would mean more 1-on-1 coverage. So I chalk this up as another plus for the Colts.
3) Jamal Lewis
The smoking gun on Jamal is not that he's averaging about 3.5 yards a carry (or the fact that he recently upped his Verizon-to-Verizon minutes - Chris) or that he has only 2 100 yard games (and none of 110), but that he's doing that and I actually think he's IMPROVED since last year.
This is the kind of thing that makes me think I could coach a football team - not because the guy hasn't been playing well, but specifically because his problems seem so emminently correctable. It just seems like he needs someone to grab him by the facemask and yell at him until he starts doing it right. When he was running for 2,000 yards, he would take, at most, one sideways step as he took the hand-off, then turn his legs forward and just start running into the hole with hard, strong steps. If anyone got in the way and went high, he'd run right through them. If they went low, they might have a chance, but even then they'd need 3 guys to corral him. And once he got past the line, he was fast enough to outrun even safeties, as long as he's going on a straight line.
Starting last year, he does this weird thing where he takes these short, sideways steps, WAITS for the defense to close in, and the plunges forward for one yard. It's gotten a little better in the 2nd half of this year, but I'd still trade him for any other starting RB left in the playoffs. Even before they shut down LJ last week, I thought the Colts D would look like they'd made a big improvement if they played against J-mal.
And no, I don't think it has to do with his being in prison. I think it's just a combination of injuries that he "recovered" from but never 100% fully, and getting a little older, and losing the starting LG, Edwin Mulitalo, and basically just having a great season that you can't really expect him to duplicate every year. (But, admit it, it has a little to do with being in prison - Chris.)
4) The Idiot Ravens Fans
This is the gravamen of my prediction against the Ravens, and the reason I wrote you the e-mail in the first place. Before last week's game, my girlfriend and I were driving on 295 and listening to some Ravens talk on WBAL. The question the host had presented (I paraphrase, but I think mostly accurately):
"Should Ravens fans root for the Colts today? Even though it would be tough to root for the Colts, would it be worth it to see them win so that the Ravens could destroy them next week?"
And then listeners would call in and say "no, never root for the Colts, even for 1 game" or "yes, it would be worth it to root for them this week for the pleasure of watching the Ravens knock them out of the playoffs."
Not one mention of the fact that the Ravens could possibly lose the game. No one even CONSIDERED the fact that we might want to play the weakest possible team, rather than strongest.
Even if the hosts had said "Who would win, Ravens or Colts?" and every listerner had said "Ravens by 30" that would have been OK. But to just assume that your team has already won, to not even bring up the question, and then ask related questions involving how wonderful that win would/will be, is just stupid. Leaving aside the questions of match-ups, playing against a great QB, and the fact that the Colts killed us last time we played, it's just disrespectful to the game. I can think of too many times when a team or its fans have thought "I want to play against team X because of how sweet it would be to beat them" and then lost.
[I assume your readers know why the Ravens fans would hate the Colts, if not, I don't have time for an explanation]
So, if you add these factors up, plus the fact that I think this is the year Peyton finally gets it together (don't ask me why, just a hunch), I have to go with the Colts in this. And this is even-money - if you can get points, I'd say the Colts are about as safe a bet as you'd find this week.
My prediction: Colts 28, Ravens 13.
Chris' Pick: Colts 19 - Ravens 12

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
By Falkow and Obaza
Falkow and Obaza are the hottest songwriting team since Rodgers and Hammerstein. Their new musical "Chunky Soup Blues" debuts on Broadway next month. After a lengthy e-mail conversation, they narrowed down their thoughts about their beloved Eagles into ten easy snippets.
TOP TEN QUOTES FROM E-MAILS GOING INTO THE EAGLES/SAINTS GAME
10) Andy Reid has won this type of game before. He’ll have the guys ready to go. He’s one of those guys that gets so excited that he wishes he could be out there with the guys on the field. Heck, if fullback Thomas Tapeh can’t play we might finally get to see Andy wear some tights after all.
9) ”In order to win on Saturday the Eagles need to continue to run the ball effectively and put Jeff Garcia in positions where he can make safe throws against one on one coverage. Shawn Andrews and Jon Runyan are run blocking very well and Andy and Marty need to continue to exploit that. New Orleans allowed 4.9 yards per carry this year; Brian Westbrook and Corell Buckhalter need to run effectively to keep Drew Brees and the whiz kids off the field.”
8) “Defensively the Eagles are going to have to play perfectly. They have not been able to pressure any quarterback consistently since Kearse got hurt and Sheldon Brown's case of whiplash which prevents him from turning his head around has hurt them multiple times this year. Rod Hood is a solid replacement for Lito Sheppard, but is not as good in man to man coverage. Jim Johnson will have to limit his blitzes and hope the front four can get some pressure on Brees. Don't even get me started on stopping the run.”
7) “A quick pick or fumble recovery could hopefully take the life out of the crowd down there. They also have to play well defending the return game, the longer the field is the more chance the defense has to capitalize on a mistake.
6) “If they can go +2 in the turnover battle, I believe they will win the game.”
5) “This is the best thing I’ve ever seen and I don’t know why. If the Eagles pull it off, this should be the front page.” (right)
4) “When you’ve won 5 of the last 6 division titles and every other team in your division is such a failure that they’ve all had to switch coaches (some multiple times), the only thing you have left to root for is that your team actually wins a super bowl so you finally have something to come back with when your bastard divisional friends start ending arguments with ‘how many rings do you have?’ (Man, the guy who says that must be a huge dick. Oh... Wait. - Chris)
3) “Wah Wah . I’m sick of all these whiny Cajuns. They should have spent their FEMA checks on a defensive line instead of all those throwback jersies. Go loot some stores like Heineken man.”
2) Donovan McNabb CANNOT throw a season killing interception in this game!
1) Any team that can lose to the Redskins isn't unbeatable. (Except the Texans. - Chris)
OVERALL CONCLUSION: Even though they are underdogs in this game the Eagles cannot let themselves be intimidated by New Orleans. You only get so many shots in the postseason and you need to take advantage of each one. Since the Eagles have never been able to do that when they were supposed to win in the playoffs, maybe they can do it when they aren’t supposed to win. Jeff Garcia can already have any man he wants in Philadelphia, if he wins this game he might be able to choose from the entire tri-state area. Don’t think this team is lacking in motivation!
Chris' Pick: New Orleans 31 - Philadelphia 23 (This game reminds me of the Redskins/Seahawks game from last year. Philly can easily win, but I think the fact that tehy're banged up after winning six straight to make the playoffs will be the deciding factor.)

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
By Steph and The Wolfman
My sister, Steph, begins our look into Sunday's first game:
Before I start, I have to inform everyone that I am a civil engineering major (translation: I did horribly in any class that involved writing). Since I joined the Army, I have lived in four different areas. While at West Point, we really didn’t interact with people outside of West Point, so I never had to deal with New York fans. Plus, we didn’t have TV, so I didn’t have to listen to New York reporters. Then, I moved to Germany, where they just cared about soccer, and Jim and I were forced to watch 1:00 games at 7:00 on a TV where the reception was so bad you couldn’t really see the ball. Then, we moved to Missouri where we were subjected to Rams and Chiefs games every weekend, but lived in the middle of nowhere, so didn’t really have to deal with any fans. Plus, everyone in the Army is from different places and ultimately root for different teams. Also, I find that a lot of soldiers could care less about sports.
So, when we moved to Washington, two years ago, I wasn’t really expecting anything different. Fortunately and unfortunately, we live in a neighborhood that is full of non-Army people who grew up in Washington. Their kids run around with Hasselbeck and Alexander jerseys. The next-door neighbors have a big Seahawks flag hanging outside. The cashiers at all the stores have Seahawks sweatshirts on. It is my first time being around other fans besides Redskins fans. People ask if I root for Seattle now that I live here. Why would I? I’m a Redskins fan. Plus, Alexander will always bother me for his whining about being taken out of the game a few years back and he was unable to get the rushing title. I think he said that Holmgren stabbed him in the back. Are these the words of someone who cares about his team?
But really, the thing that bothers me about Seahawks fans is they think they are better than other fans. Remember the whole 12th man thing last year? (You mean the thing that they stole from Texas A&M? - Chris) And they are always talking about how much louder their stadium is than other stadiums. Having been there during the Redskins-Seahawks playoff game last year, I can confirm that it is very loud. But, Qwest Field was designed to make it the loudest stadium. The roof is angled to direct as much crowd noise to the field as possible and the metal bleachers in the end zones were designed to reflect sound. How does this make you the loudest fans? It just means you have a smart owner. They never mention this fact in their local news reports. So, I’m really glad they don’t have a home game this weekend and hope they lose to the Bears so I don’t have to see everyone in their sweatshirts for another week.

Our preview continues with The Wolfman's take. And if you don't know The Wolfman then get the hell outta my car, old man.
Obviously you can cut and paste and do whatever is necessary to fit it in. This is 3rd draft of this and I was going to keep it to the last paragraph I had, but since I figured the column was originally supposed to be questions for me to answer, I could drone on endlessly. Also, since everyone just reads and hears the same story about Rex Grossman over and over I figured I'd give some people some other points about the Bears.
Since all they talk about on ESPN is about how Grossman needs to play well, I thought I'd give some tidbits from a person who watches the Bears:
1. Both starting corners will be back on the field for the 1st time in over a month. That let's Ricky Manning Jr. move back into his nickel duties and takes Devin Hester off the field. Hester is terrible on defense and this will make the team much better. With all the talk about Tommie Harris and Mike Brown being out for the year, few mentioned that either Charles Tillman or Nathan Vasher has not been on the field in the last 4 games. It was easy to see the difference on the field when Ricky Manning Jr. was beaten twice by Joey Galloway for long touchdowns. Though neither Vasher or Tillman are stars, they are both solid players (though Tillman is pretty stiff, anything that keeps Devin Hester out of the secondary is an improvement.
2. The Bears generate little pass rush. Though some of this can be contributed to the absence of Tommie Harris, the problems started long before the injury to Harris. Anyone who saw the Bears play the Patriots could see it. Their best pass rusher is a rookie, Mark Anderson. The Bears need to generate some pressure on Hasselbeck because if he gets hot and has all day to throw, it doesn't matter if the Bears have 4 all-pros in the secondary.
3. The O-line has been up-and-down protecting Grossman. They have struggled to pick up blitzes all year. Most of Grossman's bad games, not suprisingly, have come when the o-line hasn't been able to protect him, except the Packers game which was just awful. Grossman has very little pocket presence and it will be a long day if he doesn't get protection and is forced into making throws. It seems that the injuries to Grossman has effected his willingness to get out of the pocket, as he showed the ability to find space to make throws in the few games he had played in his career before this season and both injuries occurred when he was out of the pocket.
4. For the first time in his career, Cedric Benson is running hard. The Bears now have a legitimate 1-2 punch at running back, which was not really the case midway through the year when Benson was running tentatively and with his head down. If the Bears can get their running game going, it could be a long day for the Seahawks.
5. The Bears special teams is very good. The coverage teams as well as Maynard and Gould are both solid. Devin Hester is explosive, but is terrible at catching punts and overall being careful with the football. Every time he goes back there it's an adventure. If you've never seen Hester field punts in a game, watch on Sunday and see what I mean. Not only is the catch an adventure but he seems to have no feel when to fair catch or not. He needs to hold onto the ball first and then worry about breaking the big one, which he can do everytime he fields a punt or kickoff.
6. I would love to see the Bears come out in a 4-5 wide receiver set and throw on the depleted Seahawks secondary. Obviously the chances of this is almost zero and it's probably not the best idea, but I would like to see a little killer instinct in the team, even if "Bad Rex" shows up. I honestly don't think they have a set with 4 wide receivers. Any time they go to 4 wideouts, Desmond Clark is usually in the slot instead of a receiver. After last year's debacle, where the Bears were down 7-0 before I had even settled into watching the game, I would just like to see a little fire from the Bears and have them take it to Seattle.
Now that I've gotten a little analysis (and delusions of grandeur with 5 wide receiver sets) out of the way....
My stomach has been churning since Monday and I think I'm getting an ulcer thinking about this one. The Bears are the better team and should win. Of course, that doesn't mean they will. I've stayed away from a lot of coverage this week. Honestly, how many articles can a person read that says that Grossman has to play smart football. They might as well write 'Play Time is Fun' and have Rod and Todd 'go with it' because each offers the same value and insight. We've all heard it already, there's nothing else to say about it. Grossman does have to play well but sometimes letting your defense and special teams win a game, like everyone says they need to do, is not possible. It wasn't possible last year when Steve Smith ran all over Soldier Field. Grossman was what kept the Bears in the game even though he did not have a very good 1st half. If the Bears have to score 30 points to win this year, Brian Griese is not the one that's going to put those points up. Granted, the Seahawks don't have anyone as explosive as Steve Smith, but if Hasselbeck gets hot and the Bears can't generate any sort of pass rush the Seahawks can put a lot of points on the board. I suppose you have to pull Grossman if he throws 2 picks in the 1st half and I just pray to God it doesn't come to that. All the 'experts' think the Seahawks have a chance and they do, but they won't win this week, because if they do, I don't think I'll be able to pick up the pieces since I've been gearing up for the playoffs since Week 5. I could break the game down all day (and for some it probably seemed like I did above) and say what will happen, but the fact remains, nobody knows. So here's the prediction: Grossman has a good day, the secondary plays better with both starting corners back in the lineup and Hester doesn't fumble a punt or kickoff.....Bears 27 Seahawks 17. And the Bears better win, because if they don't, I don't think I ever fully recover.
Chris' Pick: Chicago 41 - Seattle 10 (Grossman shuts the critics up, until he throws 5 picks in the NFC Championship.)

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers
By Jim and Sarah
My brother-in-law, Jim, is a Patriots fan. In spite of this, my sister married him anyway. His thoughts:
Pats-Chargers is going be a great game this weekend; possibly the best of the four match-ups. It will be fun to see Merriman stare down Brady, and how Brady reacts to the Charger rush. While Merriman may get one or two sacks, I believe the best of this match-up will go to the Pats. Brady will catch the Chargers blitz with quick release passes to his receivers, springing them for big yardage over the middle. By the way, this Pats receiving Corps has peaked at just the right time, and while they aren’t the most talented or imposing in the league, they are playing their best football of the year when it counts. Brady is now comfortable and confident in his receivers, and the way he’s using them is similar to their Super Bowl years past. As for the defensive side of the ball, with so much focus on “how the Chargers pass rush is gonna eat Brady’s lunch,” there’s a few guys on the Patriots defense that are pretty good themselves. The Pats trio of down linemen to include Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, and Vince Wilfork have all had fantastic years and will be keyed on stopping LT in his tracks. And the Pats have possibly the most underrated player in football, not to mention their key defensive cog, holding down the middle of the field in Teddy Bruschi. Oh, and don’t forget Asante Samuel, who has quietly had a pro-bowl type performance throughout the year (he tied for the league lead in interceptions, yet was snubbed). Like I said, it will be a great game. Brady vs. Merriman; LT vs the Pats defense.; Belichick vs. Schottenheimer. I think it will be a close game, yet in the end, the Patriots will march on to yet another AFC championship game. They will win on a last second field goal by their rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski, sending Schottenheimer home with yet another playoff loss.

Sarah is The Wolfman's lady-friend, which sort of makes her Boof to The Wolfman's Scott. (Ahh, Teen Wolf references... Will you ever get old??) She lives in San Diego and, thusly, has become a semi-Chargers fan:
Although I'm obviously required to be a Bears fan, the San Diego Chargers are the closest thing I have to a hometown professional football team (unless you count the now-defunct Winston-Salem Wildcats, but they were NIFL, and really, who cares about that?). So I'm pretty excited that we're getting our moment of schadenfreude this season. April 24, 2004 was a great day in Chargers history, when thanks to a crybaby-who-shall-remain-nameless, we picked up a kicker who's proven to be solid and who's second in my heart only to my Robbie, the pick that would get us a great-even-when-possibly-no-longer-on-performance-enhancing-drugs linebacker, and a quarterback that gives my Dad (who, like me, supports anyone from a North Carolina ACC team) a reason to cheer for the Chargers. Add this to our powerhouse combo of Gates and LT, and here we are, ready for the Chargers to atone for their heartbreaking loss in OT to the Jets two years ago and get one step closer to that new stadium they're always whining about, in spite of Marty Schottenheimer (whom the Wolfman has assured me is the worst coach ever). I really hope they pull it off this weekend, if for no other reason than I'll get to annoy the Wolfman by running around the house singing the fight song ("San Diego – Super Chargers!") amidst his grunts about Rivers vs. Grossman.
Chris' Pick: San Diego 24 - New England 23 (Anybody who claims they know what's going to happen in this one is lying. If I had to guess, I'd say Danie's brilliance will overcome Rivers' struggles. But I wouldn't bet a penny on it, even if I had to.)