NFL Picks: Championship Game Edition

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Quick; without looking, what was the Saints record this season? They had to have at least 12 wins, right, or else why would nearly every NFL analyst be picking them to beat the Bears on the road this weekend. Why would the Saints offense be considered "nearly unstoppable" as Don Banks said on SI.com. Why would their defense be a "menace" as referred to by Len Pasquarelli.
The Saints are a fine team, and one very capable of winning the Super Bowl this year. But let's not forget that they were a very-pedestrian 10-6 team this season. I had no clue.
Among the teams that handled New Orleans; Carolina, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Washington. The team's only "good" wins came again Dallas, New York and Philadelphia, but each came at a time when those respective teams were reeling; Philly in the middle of the season and Dallas and New York near the end. The Dallas win, a 42-17 pasting, is, by far, the most impressive on the Saints' resume. But, like Twin Peaks, it hasn't aged well.
This isn't to say I'm picking the Bears to win, I'm just trying to point out that the Saints going on the road to play a bizarrely underappreciated Chicago team is hardly going to be the cakewalk some expect for New Orleans.
While Rex Grossman draws all the negative attention from the national media, I'd probably be more worried about the fact that the Bears once-stout run defense made a gimpy, half-hearted Shaun Alexander look like Jim Brown last week. The scary part, though, was that the Bears seemed a step slow and were missing tackles. It wasn't like Alexander was running through huge holes; he was making six yard gains out of nothing because the Bears couldn't close or wrap-up fast enough. If Shaun Alexander can do that, imagine what a healthy Deuce McCallister and the lightning-quick Reggie Bush will do? (There's a great picture in Sports Illustrated this week of Bush cutting, mid-run against the Eagles. Everyone on the field is running north-to-south, except Bush who has turned around and cut up towards the sidelines. It's one of those pictures that makes you appreciate still-photography.)
Grossman should be fine against the Saints secondary unless, as The Sports Pickle predicts, he regained enough confidence last week to start throwing into triple-coverage again.
The coaching match-ups seem to be a wash; I'm not all that impressed with Lovie Smith (and was even less so when he inexplicably called timeout with two seconds left in regulation last week, thus possibly giving Seattle a chance at a game-winning Hail Mary) and Sean Payton, for all the hype, made some fairly poor decisions of his own against Philly (namely, pitching the ball four yards back on a possession when they should have been running straight ahead, attempting to kill the clock).
Field goal kicking will be important but Robbie Gould and John Carney have similar stats, so its tough to give one an edge. Devin Hester might be an x-factor, which could excite or terrify Bears fans, as Hester either returns kicks for touchdowns or does something insanely stupid, and there rarely is middle ground.
They're calling for snow and 29 degree temps tomorrow in Chicago, which gives a decided advantage to the Bears. (I don't buy the talk that because Hester went to Miami and Cedric Benson went to Texas, etc. the Bears are at no more of an advantage than New Orleans. The Bears live in Chicago during the first part of the winter and are used to the cold. They practice outdoors in Lake Forest, while the Saints work out in a climate-controlled bubbled. So, just because some Bears don't have ice in their veins, doesn't mean they won't be acclimated to the cold better than the Saints. Anybody who says otherwise is just being contrary. Add in possible precipitation, and the Bears get a double-bonus from the weather. Anything that can make the field slick will help neutralize Reggie Bush.
It will be a close game, but maybe not as low-scoring as some expect. The Bears win it on the heels of a defensive touchdown and 2 TD day from Rex Grossman.
Pick: Chicago 27 - New Orleans 23

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
Remember when Mike Vrabel mocked Terrell Owens in the endzone during Super Bowl XXXIX? Remember when Vrabel also scored a touchdown in Carolina and held the ball out to a child in the stands, then snatched it back at the last second? Or when the Pats made "choke" signs in the direction of the Chargers bench last Sunday? Of course you don't, because nobody in the media talks about these things and I'm not quite sure why.
The dancing at midfield was classless, no matter what you think of Shawne Merriman's original dance (I, for one, hate the dance and its creator). For starters, taunting after the game is over is a little like punching a boxer after he's been knocked out. Real classy, morons. More importantly, though, is that the Patriots should expect to win games like that. They have in the past, so why act like they're an upstart team who just earned their biggest win in years? When UNC beat Clemson last week, did they jump around on the Tigers logo? No, because they expected to win. Do the Yankees take victory laps around the Metrodome when they beat the Twins? No, because they've been there before. Marty Schottenheimer losing in the playoffs is one of life's inexorable fates. The Pats were merely playing the Globetrotters to Marty's Generals. So act like it, putzes. Man, do I hope they get pasted tomorrow.
And I think they will. If Philip Rivers and Marty Schottenheimer were merely competent, San Diego would be hosting tomorrow's game. Peyton Manning is a Hall of Famer and Tony Dungy is about a 5% upgrade from Marty. Plus, the game is in Indy, where the Colts are 9-0 this season. The mere thought of putting up with Bill Belichick, Tedy Bruschi and Robert Kraft's two-toned shirts for the next 14 days is enough to make me sick, so let's hope I'm right on this one.
Pick: Indianapolis 35 - New England 20