NFL Picks: Wild Card Edition

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Ripping Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy's playoff failures is all the rage these days, much like minidresses and leggings. While those fashion items will certainly not age gracefully, it's tough to tell whether the Peyton-bashing will. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that Phil Mickelson was a lovable loser (although maybe he's back to that now after his U.S. Open collapse) and people were asking whether Michael Jordan could ever win a title. (It's easy to forget MJ didn't win the Finals - or even get to them - until his seventh season. If, back then, ESPN had been like it is today, this is all anybody would have talked about. Just wait until they start saying it about LeBron this summer.)
This is not to say Peyton is going to win six titles in the near future, it's just a reminder that criticism has a way of transforming into endless fawning once a trophy is hoisted. Just look at Bill Cowher; had Nick Harper returned Jerome Bettis' fumble for a TD or if Mike Vanderjagt was fit for a straitjacket, the only thing we'd be saying about Cowher today is that he could never quite get his team over the hump. (By the way, nice sweater, Bill. What, did you mug Bill Cosby on the way to press conference?)
Why am I mentioning this? I really have no idea, other than to lead-in to my picking Indy over Kansas City in a big way. I know, I've ripped the Colts all season and realize their run defense is historically bad. But let's face facts: The Chiefs D aren't exactly the '86 Bears. Peyton Manning will likely have a field day with their secondary and if he can get some early scores on the board, it might be tough for KC to commit to the run.
On the other hand, I'm starting to subscribe to the theory that the Colts defense is so bad, in part, because Peyton Manning and the offense score so quickly. I first took note of this idea in Michael Lewis' New York Times Magazine piece about Bill Parcells back in September. Looking at tape of Al Saunders' new Redskins offense, Parcells remarked how he felt the big-play capability (and, thusly, three-and-out possibilities) would work against Gregg Williams defense since it would put them on the field more. The smashmouth offense of Joe Gibbs, Parcells remarked, was better suited to keeping a defense fresh.
Surely, the Colts have bigger problems on the defensive end than fatigue, but it definitely isn't helping either.
LJ will likely have a big day, but Peyton's day should be bigger. I'm getting the feeling that this could be one of those games where the Colts come out on fire and everyone is wondering why they ever thought a team like the Chiefs could upset them in the dome. The Colts have played two Wild Card games during the Manning/Dungy area in the confines of the Hoosier Dome. The scores: 49-24 and 41-10.
Pick: Indianapolis 38 - 24

Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Here's a list of the nine teams Seattle has beaten this season: Detroit, Arizona, New York Giants, St. Louis (x2), Oakland, Green Bay, Denver and Tampa Bay. They were 1-3 vs. playoff teams and also lost to the Vikings, Cardinals and 49ers (in a fairly big game in which they were favored by 10). In short; Seattle ain't that good, folks.
Granted, I wrote very much the same thing last year about the Seahawks, and I still stand by that. Just because the team made the Super Bowl doesn't mean they were a great team. They simply took advantage of a weak schedule and an easy playoff slate.
The first thing I heard on TV when this matchup was set was that Matt Hasselbeck was going to have a field day against Roy Williams and the Cowboys secondary. As someone who has been hating on Roy Williams' game from day one, I clearly agreed that Dallas' secondary made them very vulnerable. But against Seattle?
Look, Matt Hasselbeck is a fine quarterback, but this year he's taken a gigantic step back from where he was last year. Injuries (to both him and Shaun Alexander) played a part, but so did the fact that defenses finally started concentrating on their pass defense instead of trying to stop Alexander.
Since his return from injury Hasselbeck has thrown 8 TD and 8 INT. He's lit up exactly one team; the Arizona Cardinals, who could probably still get lit up by Y.A. Tittle. The Cowboys defense is bad, but is Hasselbeck up to proving it?
The same could be asked of wunderkind-turned-probable-Surreal-Life-castmate Tony Romo. Man, what happened to him? Lindsay Lohan benders last longer than our national love affair with Mr. Romo did. He went from Brady to Bledsoe in the blink of an eye. Even Peter King is talking smack about him.
Combine Romo's play with an ineffective Julius Jones (please don't mention Marion Barber to me unless he gets more than 12 carries in a game) and Dallas could be in for a long night. Wait, why am I picking the Cowboys again?
Pick: Dallas 23 - 21

New York Jets at New England Patriots
Of all the dumb statistics out there, the NFL's passer rating is, by far, the dumbest. To wit; Tom Brady currently has the 7th highest QB rating in NFL history. One spot ahead of him; his opponent in Sunday's game, Chad Pennington. Amazingly, that's one of the least ridiculous things about that list.
Of the top 21 all-time passers, 16 are currently active. This list includes Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, Jake Delhomme and Brad Johnson. Neil Lomax is ahead of Sonny Jurgensen. Danny White higher than Troy Aikman. Jeff George is #39, well ahead of such luminaries as Fran Tarkenton, Dan Fouts, John Elway, Phil Simms and Johnny Unitas. Joey Harrington, the lowest active player who qualifies for the all-time list, is 12 spots ahead of Joe Namath.
Terry Bradshaw and Kordell Stewart are separated by .22 points.
These baffling placements are due to two factors: 1) Football is always changing and the current emphasis on short, accurate passes makes current QBs look better than their earlier , free-throwing, gunslinging counterparts. 2) QB rating is the stupidest idea since NBC put up a blank screen for 30 seconds before Super Bowl XXIII so people could go to the bathroom.
This has nothing to do with the Jets/Pats game, I just thought I'd mention it.
Since I really know little about both these teams, a few other non-game-related thoughts:
* Eric Mangini is my choice for Coach of the Year. Now, this could be because I picked the Jets to go 1-15, of course. However, I think Mangini's job of getting New York to the playoffs with much of the same personnel that went 4-12 last year is nothing short of miraculous. Nothing against Sean Payton, but he had some brand new toys to work with and had the added benefit of not playing games in a half-full Alamo Dome. If you'll recall, some people thought the Saints wouldn't be that bad before Katrina hit and they were starting Aaron Brooks.
The additions of Drew Brees and Reggie Bush gave the Saints offense a new identity. And the emotion of playing in a racous, sold-out Superdome helped give the team a real homefield advantage for the first time ever. (I don't buy the whole "Payton had to get the Saints to overcome so much" angle either. The New Orleans Saints only suffered discomfort and a losing record last year. Those players that lost their homes in Katrina could easily afford new ones. This is not to deny that it was a trying time for the Saints, but compared to others who were affected by Katrina, they had it among the easiest.
Instead, it was the people of New Orleans, namely the poor people of the city, that had to (and still have to) overcome so much.
I like Drew Brees, Joe Horn and Deuce McCallister a lot, but when they were shipped to San Antonio, they weren't living in a stadium, sleeping on cots and getting their meals served by the Red Cross. Let's keep some perspective on this whole "Saints suffering" thing before we annoit Payton a miracle worker. Maybe that was a bit harsh, because I do think Payton did a great job in New Orleans, it's just that Mangini did more with less.)
That being said, I still would have voted Drew Brees as my NFL MVP. An MVP award deserves to go to the most valuable. And as Peter King says, plug Michael Turner into the Chargers offense and they probably still win the AFC West. Replace Drew Brees with Daunte Culpepper, Jamie Martin or whoever, and they're a 4-12 team.
Danie should have been the unanimous selection for Offensive Player of the Year, but I think his value was less than that of both Brees and Tom Brady.
As for my pick, I think this one is going to be a snoozer and, no matter who wins, their playoffs will end next weekend.
Pick: New England 20 - 6

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
So is this the game the NFL considers the marquee match-up because it gets the coveted 4:15 Sunday slot, or is Dallas/Seattle more attractive due to its primetime Saturday night billing? Did Fox and CBS get to choose which games they got to broadcast? (NBC is doing both Saturday tilts.) Does anybody care but me?
I know this angle has been played to death this week, but it really is amazing that a team with a journeyman QB who could have been had by any of the other 31 NFL teams this offseason is currently favored by 7 points over everyone's golden-boy-in-training Eli Manning. And by amazing, I mean totally sweet.
I'm looking forward to next year when somebody inevitably defends Eli by saying he's led the Giants to the playoffs twice the past two years. Because that's going to be awesome.
Anyway, the Giants are done. Just because Sean Taylor can't tackle doesn't mean they're back in any way, shape or form. They have two wins in eight games. They won't make it three in nine.
Pick: Philadelphia 35 - 19